2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[CheeselandSkies]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Looks to me we are  headed for  low  pressure  locking  in over the  northeast with a  big  east  coast trof. Weak season like  last  year looking  more  likely.

21/7/4. 145 ACE. Put a sock in it.

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

21/7/4. 145 ACE. Put a sock in it.

"Collectively, the tropical and subtropical systems of the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season caused 194 deaths and about $80.727 billion in damage, making it the third costliest season on record. Eight named storms struck the United States, which is the third most ever, behind only the previous season and 1916."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Atlantic_hurricane_season#Seasonal_summary
 

PS: Clever double entendre of sorts (assuming you intended that) in your post

[jconsor]

Thread on the "missing" warmth in the eastern subtropical Atlantic (part of the +AMO tripole signature) and why it is expected to return in mid to late Jul.
 

 

[ldub23]

This  is the  pattern i expect for the hurricane season. While  its always  possible  1 odd storm can make it thru the coast should  be safe with another early ending season

 

 

[cptcatz]

On 7/4/2022 at 7:57 PM, ldub23 said:

This  is the  pattern i expect for the hurricane season. While  its always  possible  1 odd storm can make it thru the coast should  be safe with another early ending season

 

 

Quoting this to come back to it to make you look like a fool in October...

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Quoting this to come back to it to make you look like a fool in October...

We will see. Will the  pattern reverse? It didnt  last year. With low  pressure  over the  northeast it will be rather tame  like  last  year. All we can wait  for  is  if 1 storm can make  it thru like  last season.

[GaWx]

 It sure feels like I've been experiencing "rainstorm" deja vu in recent days. Anyone else feeling it? Newbies won't know what I'm talking about. This goes back to the EasternUSWx days.

 Anyway, the tropics are very quiet and look to stay that way well into next week. This is very typical of early to mid July.

[SnowenOutThere]

7 hours ago, ldub23 said:

We will see. Will the  pattern reverse? It didnt  last year. With low  pressure  over the  northeast it will be rather tame  like  last  year. All we can wait  for  is  if 1 storm can make  it thru like  last season.

Could you please tell me how last season was in any way “tame”? 

[Windspeed]

Could you please tell me how last season was in any way “tame”? 

Now don't be argumentative. It was only the third costliest season on record..

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Now don't be argumentative. It was only the third costliest season on record..

Its tame if the east coast doesn't get a cat 3

[NorthHillsWx]

3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Now don't be argumentative. It was only the third costliest season on record..

While true, 75 or so billion came from a single storm. If Ida misses the US we’re all talking about 2021 being a lame season. Just some perspective on how a single storm can change a season. Nicholas was a damaging storm and ultimately a billion dollar disaster, but we won’t remember that name. The season featured only 7 hurricanes and 4 majors, both just slightly above the average. The season featured so many junk storms that only lived 1-2 days out in the open sea. I’m still pissed they named Odette and still don’t believe it was a tropical cyclone…. All that said, I know the poster above is known for spam posts, but 2021 really was unspectacular if you take away 1 storm. But that’s all it takes to make a season memorable 

[GaWx]

7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its tame if the east coast doesn't get a cat 3

  Pretty much per that longtime troll, who has always aimed the trolling at the NE US members because many members are in the NE. The silliness about 2021 being "lame" is so laughable, especially because the NE US as you know had a very high impact season thanks to not just one, not just two, and not just three storms, but FOUR storms during just a 60 day period early July through early Sept thanks to Elsa, Fred, Henri, and Ida! How many other seasons had that many significant tropical related impacts?
 
 2021 had the second wettest 60 day period in the history in NYC (almost 27"!), for example, the majority of which was tropical related. This included very rare major subway station flooding. There was not just one but two different storms with actual TS landfalls in RI (Elsa and Henri) plus the remnants of Ida produced similarly strong NE US winds (big wind and rain impacts at US Open for example) with many trees down and numerous power outages from them. There were many tornadoes from the combo of Elsa, Fred remnants, and Ida remnants. There was extreme to historical rain related flooding from Elsa, Henri, and Ida in places like NJ, NY, and New England. I don't live there, but I have relatives there who were heavily impacted by these storms overall as you must have experienced.

 So, saying "Rather tame like last year" is so ridiculously "over the top" but of course that troll knows it. That's part of the shtick.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, GaWx said:

  Pretty much per that longtime troll, who has always aimed the trolling at the NE US members because many members are in the NE. The silliness about 2021 being "lame" is so laughable, especially because the NE US as you know had a very high impact season thanks to not just one, not just two, and not just three storms, but FOUR storms during just a 60 day period early July through early Sept thanks to Elsa, Fred, Henri, and Ida! How many other seasons had that many significant tropical related impacts?
 
 2021 had the second wettest 60 day period in the history in NYC (almost 27"!), for example, the majority of which was tropical related. This included very rare major subway station flooding. There was not just one but two different storms with actual TS landfalls in RI (Elsa and Henri) plus the remnants of Ida produced similarly strong NE US winds (big wind and rain impacts at US Open for example) with many trees down and numerous power outages from them. There were many tornadoes from the combo of Elsa, Fred remnants, and Ida remnants. There was extreme to historical rain related flooding from Elsa, Henri, and Ida in places like NJ, NY, and New England. I don't live there, but I have relatives there who were heavily impacted by these storms overall as you must have experienced.

 So, saying "Rather tame like last year" is so ridiculously "over the top" but of course that troll knows it. That's part of the shtick.

Well, I was obviously being sarcastic when referring to last year as tame from the standpoint of overall tropical activity.....but from an impact standpoint? At least in New England, I had already forgotten about last season. Left a lot on the table......I was all over that Henri head-fake. Lots of people fell for it in assuming a proficient recovery from shear in the mid latitudes, which is often a mistake. The most impressive impact last season in New England was the nor'easter in October. Nothing else was memorable for me.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I get that significant amount of people were impacted very adversely by flooding, etc....but in terms of a truly devastating impact from a tropical cyclone in the traditional sense, we are still waiting for that. Once mother nature collects on that tab, we will know it because there will be no need to debate, or call anyone's attention to the borrough in NYC that had some flooding, or to the rainy 60 day period, etc. We will all remember it clear as day for the rest of our lives, and so won't our children and grandchildren.

Good rule of thumb...when you need to remind people of an impact several months later, or cite the litany of reasons as to why you feel that it was impactful, then its probably not to the degree of impact to which people were referencing in the first place.

It shouldn't need to be argued.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I get that significant amount of people were impacted very adversely by flooding, etc....but in terms of a truly devastating impact from a tropical cyclone in the traditional sense, we are still waiting for that. Once mother nature collects on that tab, we will know it because there will be no need to debate, or call anyone's attention to the borrough in NYC that had some flooding, or to the rainy 60 day period, etc. We will all remember it clear as day for the rest of our lives, and so won't our children and grandchildren.

Good rule of thumb...when you need to remind people of an impact several months later, or cite the litany of reasons as to why you feel that it was impactful, then its probably not to the degree of impact to which people were referencing in the first place.

It shouldn't need to be argued.

The core of a true major coming up through long island and into New England is nothing short of a national emergency. And there are multiple historical precedents. 120+mph gusts will obliterate the power grid. Puerto rlco post Maria type, months long power outages for millions of people. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The core of a true major coming up through long island and into New England is nothing short of a national emergency. And there are multiple historical precedents. 120+mph gusts will obliterate the power grid. Puerto rlco post Maria type, months long power outages for millions of people. 

Yea, that's what I am getting at....activity level wise, it certainly was not tame....but in terms of lasting impact, last season may not have been tame, but it certainly wasn't anything memorable for most in this region....the thing is that that flooding occurred over such a densely populated area, otherwise no one would have batted an eye lash. But if you need to cite the total rainfall over a 60 day period to support your argument that it wasn't tame, then yea....lol.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I was obviously being sarcastic when referring to last year as tame from the standpoint of overall tropical activity.....but from an impact standpoint? At least in New England, I had already forgotten about last season. Left a lot on the table......I was all over that Henri head-fake. Lots of people fell for it in assuming a proficient recovery from shear in the mid latitudes, which is often a mistake. The most impressive impact last season in New England was the nor'easter in October. Nothing else was memorable for me.

 I know you were being sarcastic.  I don't know if you go far back enough to remember the troll "rainstorm", but that's who this troll is. The exact same shtick. It was often done early in the season so as to have the most effect on pissing off those wanting an active season. It was also done during the heart of 2003 when Isabel was already a storm as this troll, who then had VA Beach-Norfolk area as the hometown (same as now) kept saying it would harmlessly stay away from the east coast. This person has already accomplished what was desired, getting posters riled up and responding about very silly over the top type downplaying. Part of the intentionally silly downplaying was calling last season "tame". In addition, predicting that this season will end up tame along the east coast a month before the climo most active part of the season even begins and based on nothing scientific is as we know and as the troll knows also pure silliness. Yes, of course it may very well end up that way especially considering that a large number of seasons up the east coast have done just that (though I'm not making that prediction), but the prediction based on nothing is a joke.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 I know you were being sarcastic.  I don't know if you go far back enough to remember the troll "rainstorm", but that's who this troll is. The exact same shtick. It was often done early in the season so as to have the most effect on pissing off those wanting an active season. It was also done during the heart of 2003 when Isabel was already a storm as this troll, who then had VA Beach-Norfolk area as the hometown (same as now) kept saying it would harmlessly stay away from the east coast. This person has already accomplished what was desired, getting posters riled up and responding about very silly over the top type downplaying. Part of the intentionally silly downplaying was calling last season "tame". In addition, predicting that this season will end up tame along the east coast a month before the climo most active part of the season even begins and based on nothing scientific is as we know and as the troll knows also pure silliness. Yes, of course it may very well end up that way especially considering that a large number of seasons up the east coast have done just that (though I'm not making that prediction), but the prediction based on nothing is a joke.

Oh, that is rainstorm?

Yea, trolled the winter guys, too.

[WxWatcher007]

Good stuff. Setting aside activity, on balance the biggest CONUS event was Ida by a mile, which doesn’t really denote a memorable season in terms of lasting impact outside of the devastation in Louisiana and NJ/NY.

The best way to look at it is this:

Nobody talks about the 1992 Atlantic hurricane season—a below average season itself—they talk about the storm, Andrew.

The same holds true for 1999, which was very active in terms of major hurricanes, and while one of those made landfall in the CONUS, it’s the category two hurricane, Floyd, that’s memorable in terms of impact.

Those storms were the season. Surely severe in impact, but not reflective of the season on balance.

On the opposite end, people know of years where there are multiple severe to catastrophic events across a region or multiple regions. 

1954 (Carol, Hazel, Edna)

2004 (Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne)

2005 (Too many to name)

2017 (Harvey, Irma, Maria, Nate—for Central America)

2020 (another obvious one IMO)

Here, the seasons themselves are known. They are known not necessarily for an individual storm, but the number and ferocity of impacts. 

We’ll see what happens this season. Agree with 40/70 on New England. A lot of impacts which is statistically anomalous for sure, but outside of Ida in parts of CT and historic river flooding in some locations, nothing truly memorable. The October system was a beast though. That was my best chase all season. That was basically a category one hurricane impact for much of coastal Mass and the damage, while localized, was substantial.

 

 

[StruThiO]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I know you were being sarcastic.  I don't know if you go far back enough to remember the troll "rainstorm", but that's who this troll is. The exact same shtick. It was often done early in the season so as to have the most effect on pissing off those wanting an active season. It was also done during the heart of 2003 when Isabel was already a storm as this troll, who then had VA Beach-Norfolk area as the hometown (same as now) kept saying it would harmlessly stay away from the east coast. This person has already accomplished what was desired, getting posters riled up and responding about very silly over the top type downplaying. Part of the intentionally silly downplaying was calling last season "tame". In addition, predicting that this season will end up tame along the east coast a month before the climo most active part of the season even begins and based on nothing scientific is as we know and as the troll knows also pure silliness. Yes, of course it may very well end up that way especially considering that a large number of seasons up the east coast have done just that (though I'm not making that prediction), but the prediction based on nothing is a joke.

Yeah I remember their posts right before the most active month ever observed in the Atlantic back in 2017. Same shit, different toilet

[Hoosier]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I know you were being sarcastic.  I don't know if you go far back enough to remember the troll "rainstorm", but that's who this troll is. The exact same shtick. It was often done early in the season so as to have the most effect on pissing off those wanting an active season. It was also done during the heart of 2003 when Isabel was already a storm as this troll, who then had VA Beach-Norfolk area as the hometown (same as now) kept saying it would harmlessly stay away from the east coast. This person has already accomplished what was desired, getting posters riled up and responding about very silly over the top type downplaying. Part of the intentionally silly downplaying was calling last season "tame". In addition, predicting that this season will end up tame along the east coast a month before the climo most active part of the season even begins and based on nothing scientific is as we know and as the troll knows also pure silliness. Yes, of course it may very well end up that way especially considering that a large number of seasons up the east coast have done just that (though I'm not making that prediction), but the prediction based on nothing is a joke.

Rainstorm was amazingly "skilled" as a troll.  Never seemed to deviate from character at all.  I've never seen anything like it.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Rainstorm was amazingly "skilled" as a troll.  Never seemed to deviate from character at all.  I've never seen anything like it.

 I absolutely agree and "she" still seems to be because she's back. If there's such a thing as being graded on trolling, rainstorm gets an A+ from me lmao. Dare I say, she even sometimes made me laugh due to her persistence on saying such over the top nonsense as well as never deviating and being successful. Even the name "rainstorm" embodied her trolling nature. Is that something she can be proud of and put on her resume lol?

 Do you happen to remember that rainstorm wasn't the first name she went by? She was "jxdama" before (on WWBB).

[Hoosier]

13 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I absolutely agree and "she" still seems to be because she's back. If there's such a thing as being graded on trolling, rainstorm gets an A+ from me lmao. Dare I say, she even sometimes made me laugh due to her persistence on saying such over the top nonsense as well as never deviating and being successful. Even the name "rainstorm" embodied her trolling nature. Is that something she can be proud of and put on her resume lol?

 Do you happen to remember that rainstorm wasn't the first name she went by? She was "jxdama" before (on WWBB).

Yeah I remember.  She (or he... who really knows) gave an infamous line that I'm sure some of the old timers will recall.  It was about the "angle of the cold" being wrong for the east coast.  The early-mid 2000s had some real characters and that was pre-subforums so you tended to know more people from other regions.

[lee59]

Long Island is way overdue for a land falling hurricane. Although we have been affected by numerous tropical systems, including the devastating Sandy, there has not been a direct hit since Gloria in 1985.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Rainstorm was the one who used to post surface pressure forecast maps from the FSU experimental cyclone genesis model page to 'prove' no storms could affect the US?

 

Retired met Larry Cosgrove, who predicted the routine 100*F+ temps last month (warmest June on record) and continuing in Houston before it happened thinks position of ridging/SAL delays the start of the MDR season enough that CSU will bust high (but still above average season), but thinks September, while not that favorable for systems making the Gulf, has potential for East Coast landfalls.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

3 hours ago, lee59 said:

Long Island is way overdue for a land falling hurricane. Although we have been affected by numerous tropical systems, including the devastating Sandy, there has not been a direct hit since Gloria in 1985.

Been 40 years since I lived in Massapequa, most LILCO lines were above ground on poles.  Have they buried some, or would a big hurricane still knock out power for potentially millions for a week or more?

[bigtenfan]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Rainstorm was the one who used to post surface pressure forecast maps from the FSU experimental cyclone genesis model page to 'prove' no storms could affect the US?

 

Retired met Larry Cosgrove, who predicted the routine 100*F+ temps last month (warmest June on record) and continuing in Houston before it happened thinks position of ridging/SAL delays the start of the MDR season enough that CSU will bust high (but still above average season), but thinks September, while not that favorable for systems making the Gulf, has potential for East Coast landfalls.

I always had a lot of respect for Larry Cosgrove. Back in 1996 when he was a TV Met in Philly he was the very first to sniff out the Blizzard  of 1996 a full week ahead of time. With the technology of 1996 as it was that was a great achievement 

[lee59]

2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Been 40 years since I lived in Massapequa, most LILCO lines were above ground on poles.  Have they buried some, or would a big hurricane still knock out power for potentially millions for a week or more?

Mostly above ground

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

4 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Been 40 years since I lived in Massapequa, most LILCO lines were above ground on poles.  Have they buried some, or would a big hurricane still knock out power for potentially millions for a week or more?

They really haven’t buried any. It’s up to several million a mile. We had massive week+ long outages after Sandy with gusts in the 80s. Gusts over 100 will completely destroy the grid. 
Take Isaias for example. Use the same track and increase the intensity to cat 4 instead of 1 before land impact in the Carolina’s. That would produce a large swath of cat 3 wind gusts on the east side. 

[yoda]

Before Isabel weakened to a Cat 2... I was very concerned for the Mid Atlantic considering it was an annular Cat 5 for a while.  It's only a matter of time before DC gets visited by a 1933 Chesapeake Hurricane redux