2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[raindancewx]

Pending the brief flare-up that should develop, June-October ACE is likely to match most closely with 1981, as 1988 has fallen off a bit (it was more active in October). So I fully expect another storm or two in November. Outside November 1932 (70+), you rarely get more than 25 ACE in November.

It's not uncommon for powerful storms to spin up in November, they just don't last very long. I'm expecting around 10 ACE for November. Four ACE is average since 1950.

[Amped]

Okay the 00z CMC has a storm, now I'm officially interested since it's on at least 2 models.

 

00z GFS says it's >50% of the ACE for the entire 2022 season. Seems to be the trend for the GFS this season.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

Okay the 00z CMC has a storm, now I'm officially interested since it's on at least 2 models.

 

00z GFS says it's >50% of the ACE for the entire 2022 season. Seems to be the trend for the GFS this season.

The 0Z CMC with its CCar TCG is a much more believable scenario vs the GFS SECar TCG.

 I don't see the 0Z GFS on Tidbits. Where did you see it?

[GaWx]

On 5/15/2022 at 8:26 AM, bigtenfan said:

The GFS has had this for something like 15 runs in a row while none of the other models have anything like this. Either:

 

The GFS is on to a 2012 Sandy like coup that  gave the Euro the reputation that it had OR

 

It is on to a 2015 Mid Atlantic Blizzard forecast  that the Euro was alone on that never materialized and started the Euro's downward trend.

 

On 5/17/2022 at 4:05 PM, wxeyeNH said:

The GFS has been like a dog that will not just let go of his grip.  Jeez, run after run for day after day the GFS has been insistent that something is going to get going in the NW Caribbean or Gulf.  If this would ever come to fruition the GFS will have scored a total respect from me.  

 

 

 

On 5/18/2022 at 7:42 AM, cptcatz said:

Aaaaaand GFS has thrown in the towel.  That was fun while it lasted...

 Sound familiar? Back in mid May, there were something like 25 GFS runs in a row with W Caribbean TCG that lead to modeled H landfalls  in many cases while other models were mainly quiet. Then about a week after the first run with it, the GFS dropped it and never was heard from about this timeframe again. I think that's likely what's happening now with its E Car TCG. I suspect it will at some point throw in the towel on E Car TCG. Perhaps then it will change to a much more reasonable C or W Car TCG. Even the 0Z CMC has TCG in the C Car.

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 0Z CMC with its CCar TCG is a much more believable scenario vs the GFS SECar TCG.

 I don't see the 0Z GFS on Tidbits. Where did you see it?

I don't see anything on the gfs anymore 

[olafminesaw]

Recurves sharply OTS after a brush with Hispaniola 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

I don't see anything on the gfs anymore 

For some reason, Tidbits doesn't have either the 0Z or 6Z GFS. But I later found them at Pivotal and Weathernerds.

  I have a lot of doubt that the GFS, ICON, and CMC are actually developing the same wave. What do others think?
 
 Based on what it has done many times in the recent past (~25 runs in a row in mid May in the W Car for example that turned out to be nothing), I still think the GFS is drunk with its E Car TCG into a H while still in the E Car. I'm also considering climo as well as the Euro and UKMET not having an E Car TCG.
 

 Looking closely at the 0Z UKMET maps, all it has is a very weak low (1012 mb) at the ABC Islands (12N, 69W) at hour 84 (a far different scenario vs the GFS) that then moves westward with no TCG into the far SW Car. It finally develops some in the far SW Car while still moving westward and ends up at 1007 mb at hour 168 near 11N, 82W (150 miles E of the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border).

  I'm still sticking with a C or W Car TCG, if there is any, by early to mid next week and expect no more than a weak low in the E Car preceding that possibility later this week that moves westward just N of SA.

[Low Pressure Lunacy]

New lemon is making my stomach hurt.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Euro and UKMET continue with no TCG at all. However, they both have weak lows in the SW Car day 6+ that will need to be watched for potential TCG due to more favorable conditions, considering what the 12Z CMC and ICON as well as yesterday's 12Z JMA show, noting that climo favors that area over all others, La Nina climo, and recent decades of increased activity late in the season:

 Oct 21-31 geneses:  (add two more to this in the W Car for 2016-21)

  Nov 1-10 geneses: 

[cptcatz]

Although euro doesn't show anything, EPS is as bullish it's been with this afternoon's run. There's a few really strong ones in there...

[Amped]

2 hours ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

18z GFS seems like a much more reasonable run

Drifting around the Caribbean for 10 days in October/November doesn't really seem to likely.  Probably going to get picked up by a troff or tucked under the ridge into the central American coast  a lot sooner.   It pulls some Mahomes moves this run to stay over water.

[Amped]

00z gfs and 00z CMC are in.  They are in somewhat better agreement although the CMC is further west.  

 

They both agree that the upper level troff lifting out  from 120hrs-132hrs will be the instigating event.   THE SW end of it gets left behind in the E Caribbean and forms a TC when the trade winds resume to the north of it.

If the ridging over the gulf day 7-10 verifies It will likely force the storm to go over Nicaragua or Honduras.

 

[GaWx]

 0Z GFS: no TCG until the C Car. Much more reasonable.

 Edit: But then it forms a 2nd one behind it in the C Car that goes east lol. I'm not counting this part as reasonable lmao.

[jconsor]

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

12Z GFS seems doable, at least.  Has some ECENS support.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Euro has a weak closed low form in the C Car, the first run doing that. Prior runs have had no more than a very weak low and that in the W Car. Let's see if this is the start of a trend on the Euro.

[olafminesaw]

GFS developed a TS only 84 hours out. May not be so far fetched this time

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said:

Euro seems to like it, albeit much less, around that same time

In addition to the potential that this first TC forms in the central Caribbean in a few days, the model consensus is suggesting that a 2nd TC may form in or near the SW Caribbean during the first few days of November. That includes the 0Z UKMET and yesterday's 12Z UKMET in addition to other models like the Euro, ICON, and GFS. The EPS, GEFS, and GEPS also are suggesting this has a good chance to occur. So, as crazy as it sounds, don't be surprised if we get both Lisa and Martin form in the Caribbean next week.

[jconsor]

 

[GaWx]

After pretty much being on its own having had nearly a week's worth of runs showing almost all hurricanes at peak in the E or C Caribbean, the 12Z GFS has no more than a TD to possibly low end TS from this on the entire run! That's pretty bad imho though it was fortunately pretty predictable due to doing this kind of thing on its own at times in the past. And now this run could turn out to be too weak!

 

 Edit: The 12Z EPS retains the idea of a possible 2nd TC (if the initial Car mandarin low actually has TCG) in or near the SW Caribbean in early November.

Edit: Regarding the "mandarined" low, the Happy Hour GFS more than likely is not even showing a TD with at most a weak TD for a short period. Too funny!

[Great Snow 1717]

Has anyone heard from DT????...asking for a friend..

[MJO812]

48 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Has anyone heard from DT????...asking for a friend..

Banned

[Great Snow 1717]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Banned

You just made my day ! lol

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

95L worth its own topic?  The SHIPS isn't as bad as might be expected for deep, medium and shallow level steering models being so spread out, a quick hint of shear.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

95L worth its own topic?  The SHIPS isn't as bad as might be expected for deep, medium and shallow level steering models being so spread out, a quick hint of shear.

 Please start the 95L thread if you think it is worthy. I personally think that the 70% chance of TD+ within 5 days for this is too high considering mostly unimpressive model consensus and think it is more like 40% as of now:

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea 
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward 
for several hundred miles.  Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next 
week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or 
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the 
Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this 
weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[GaWx]

 Meanwhile, the model consensus based on the latest runs of each model (12Z, 6Z, 0Z) continues to suggest a weak low in the SW Caribbean ~November 3rd. This is not Invest 95L. (Future 96L??) This includes the 12Z runs of the ICON, CMC, GFS, Euro, and UKMET. The GFS is another run that does a "wrong way Lenny" with it as it takes it ENE to near W PR. Take that with a huge grain, of course.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Please start the 95L thread if you think it is worthy. I personally think that the 70% chance of TD+ within 5 days for this is too high considering mostly unimpressive model consensus and think it is more like 40% as of now:

 

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Caribbean:
A broad area of low pressure over the eastern Caribbean Sea 
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms extending from the Windward Islands west-northwestward 
for several hundred miles.  Environmental conditions are forecast to 
be conducive for gradual development over the next few days, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next 
week while the disturbance moves slowly westward or 
west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.  Regardless of 
development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the 
Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through this 
weekend. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

I can wait a day to see if dry air and shear let up,  mess on visible satellite.

[GaWx]

 For the 3rd-4th day in a row, the 12Z model consensus (every model actually including ensembles) has a potential Invest 96-L with a new sfc low forming in the SW Caribbean on 11/3. Most of the models keep it weak though the Icon gets it a bit stronger further NW. The 12Z GFS as usual has the wildest solution with it having a H hitting Jamaica, Cuba, Bahamas, and Daytona Beach.

  
 18Z GFS takes the weak low that forms in the SW Caribbean on 11/3 and has a similar solution to the 12Z except that it hits Bermuda instead of Daytona Beach for the final landfall shown on the run. Taking with a gigantic grain because it is the GFS. Regardless of what the GFS shows, all models are still showing a weak low forming on 11/3 in the SW Caribbean, which would probably need to be watched as that is the most climo favored location in the entire basin in early November.

 I think I'll withhold comment on the 0Z GFS for now.

  

[cptcatz]

So I'm counting like 8 tropical storms on the 06z GFS?

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, cptcatz said:

So I'm counting like 8 tropical storms on the 06z GFS?

  I thought you were exaggerating for comic effect but by golly I think I counted 8, myself! I can trace two of them to the possible 11/3 SW Caribbean genesis, itself, (which I do think may need to be watched) with one of those becoming a cat 2 H in the Leewards.