Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 10 named storms. Not hyperactive, but majors and a significant US landfall, this isn't 1983. May go up from 10, some GEFS like a late season MDR storm, and who knows what mid-latitude low in the subtropics might catch a name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 18 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 10 named storms. Not hyperactive, but majors and a significant US landfall, this isn't 1983. May go up from 10, some GEFS like a late season MDR storm, and who knows what mid-latitude low in the subtropics might catch a name. I'm still not sure we are finished yet. I think a late October or November major hurricane is still possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted October 7, 2022 Share Posted October 7, 2022 12z Euro alluded to this also. I don't think we'll get anything too significant considering incoming trough may force it south and/or impose shear and dry air, but it's worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 8, 2022 Share Posted October 8, 2022 Can’t rely on 1 model. https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/how-a-trusted-weather-model-fumbled-the-forecast-for-hurricane-ian/ar-AA12IaW9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 Looks like the season is winding down. Not looking like a backloaded season. I think we can officially call it a forecast bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 On 9/18/2022 at 10:13 PM, StruThiO said: You know how they say it only takes one for a memorable / destructive season? Looks like we found our one. Fiona is a retirement guarantee Make that two now, Fiona and Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 9, 2022 Share Posted October 9, 2022 On 9/7/2022 at 1:35 PM, cptcatz said: Yeah September is looking pretty dead but you still can't rule out one or two October western Caribbean monsters ala Michael/Wilma/Matthew/Sandy. 7 hours ago, cptcatz said: Looks like the season is winding down. Not looking like a backloaded season. I think we can officially call it a forecast bust. The hyperactive forecasts, including all of the seasonal CSUs, will be huge busts although we've pretty much known that for awhile. But your September 7th post about September quoted above is also a huge bust as September ended up quite active as well as above the 30 year average thanks to one of the most active Sept 14-30 periods on record. That shows that models had only about a one week reliable window that day. Looking ahead, the model consensus admittedly doesn't show much and the season could easily per climo even in a La Nina have little left this late with mainly quiet models, especially as regards the CONUS with the projected autumn pattern for the E US. However, as noted above, models can't look out that far reliably. Just one week after you posted on September 7th, it got active again and didn't let up for over 2 weeks. Looking beyond the reliable period for models, 10+ days out or October 19th+ for TC genesis, and considering just the period since 1995, nearly half the seasons still had significant land impacts in the western basin not yet forecastable as of today's date: - 2020: MHs Zeta, Eta, and Iota - 2016: MH Otto - 2012: MH Sandy - 2010: H Tomas - 2009: H Ida - 2008: MH Paloma - 2007: H Noel - 2005: MH Beta - 2001: MH Michelle - 1999: MH Lenny - 1998: MH Mitch Of these: 2020, 16, 10, 08, 07, 05, 99, and 98 were during oncoming or current La Nina. That's 8 of these seasons out of a total of 12 of these since 1995. So, 2/3 of these seasons. So, imo, based on the above, we have at the very least a 50% shot at one more impactful H in the western basin. Edit: If we were in El Niño, I'd likely be predicting no more impactful canes because only 1 of 8 since 1995 had another impactful cane from an Oct 19+ genesis. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Nothing in the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Classic example of the old saying that even in a lesser year all you need is one storm to make it memorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 On 10/8/2022 at 10:15 AM, LoboLeader1 said: Can’t rely on 1 model. https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/how-a-trusted-weather-model-fumbled-the-forecast-for-hurricane-ian/ar-AA12IaW9 Article by Scott Dance "global weather writer" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Yucatan lemon does show up on both GEFS and ECENS, but weak and straight into Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 Time to start reading the annual predictions of a historically cold and snowy winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 If we can avoid a freeze this year I'll have bananas in the back yard next Summer. Roots are hardy, even a hard frost kills the leaves back, and it takes over a year to start bunching. This has nothing to do with hurricane season, but it is over in Texas, and banana and citrus killing weather comes next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 With Ian's Category 4 landfall, this makes 7 Category 4 or 5 US landfalls in these most recent 6 seasons. This is unprecedented since records have been kept. The previous most Category 4 or 5 US landfalls within 6 seasons was 5 from 1945-1950. All of them hit Florida, and all of them were 115 kt landfalls (the minimum threshold for Category 4). This makes the intensity of this collection of 7 landfalls stand out even more as extreme: 2017- Harvey, 115 kt 2017- Irma, 115 kt 2017- Maria, 135 kt 2018- Michael, 140 kt 2020- Laura, 130 kt 2021- Ida, 130 kt 2022- Ian, 130 kt (prelim, although I wouldn't expect this to drop under Cat 4 in post analysis) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 3 hours ago, floridapirate said: Time to start reading the annual predictions of a historically cold and snowy winter. Tell me about just like All the hyperactive predictions for hurricane season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Little uptick on 18z GEFS in WCAB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 On 10/9/2022 at 6:16 PM, Amped said: Nothing in the foreseeable future. Took 36 hours for a 60% chance of development for now 93L On 10/9/2022 at 1:41 PM, GaWx said: Make that two now, Fiona and Ian. Julia has killed at least 60 people, I wonder if that makes it three. Not bad for another 2013 :rollseyes: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 55 minutes ago, StruThiO said: That didn't take long. 60% chance of development for now 93L Julia has killed at least 60 people, I wonder if that makes it three. Not bad for another 2013 :rollseyes: May get a number before being sheared apart. But it did pop up on a single day's notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 There have been 13 seasons since 1995 that are like 2022 with either a current or oncoming La Niña. Out of these 13, only two (1995 and 2000) didn't have at least one more TC with genesis Oct 22+ for which there were significant land effects in the western basin. Oct 22 is still 11 days out, well beyond a reliable period for models. So, though far from a guarantee, the betting odds pretty heavily favor one more system in 2022 that we're currently totally unaware of that will generate a good amount of discussion within tropical wx forums in late October and/or November. For 2021, I counted the precursor to Wanda, which was Invest 94L from the start and resulted in a powerful nor'easter in the NE US: This idea about the likelihood of one more impactful system is not counting the current SW Gulf Invest 93L should it happen to have significant impact. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Recon just took off for our new invest. We'll find out in a couple hours whether this is a TC, or a glorified squall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 I am going to vote TC. Looks like there is some kind of Low down there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Maybe try to push up the South Mexican coast until tomorrow night's Texas cold front drives it back South end of the week. Looking at 12Z op 250 mb winds, nothing survives in the Northern Gulf very long anyway. For personal reasons, I hope it isn't named. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Maybe try to push up the South Mexican coast until tomorrow night's Texas cold front drives it back South end of the week. Looking at 12Z op 250 mb winds, nothing survives in the Northern Gulf very long anyway. For personal reasons, I hope it isn't named. I’ve been fooled before without recon confirmation, but on visible, this looks like a TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 This looks pretty good on IR and visible. Recon en route. Probably my last chance for a NS before the 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Impressive on a global Atlantic/Pacific view 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 80% development odds now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 The 12Z UKMET does nothing tropically with this, but it does have a well organized surface low that moves very slowly north til Thursday followed by a stall and subsequent drift south into MX Saturday. Here is a 12Z UKMET late morning Thursday radar depiction, which actually shows a well organized system, which makes me feel surprised that run didn't call it a TC: For the record, the 0Z UKMET had TCG at hour 36 and then moved slowly NE followed by a curve SE toward just off the NW tip of the Yucatan where it dissipated: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 21.9N 95.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.10.2022 36 21.9N 95.3W 1009 21 0000UTC 13.10.2022 48 23.0N 94.7W 1008 20 1200UTC 13.10.2022 60 23.2N 93.3W 1009 20 0000UTC 14.10.2022 72 22.2N 91.9W 1007 25 1200UTC 14.10.2022 84 21.1N 91.0W 1008 27 0000UTC 15.10.2022 96 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 If it is determined that there is a closed surface circulation, Invest 93L could easily be upgraded right to TS Karl very shortly per this, which shows 35 knots: AL, 93, 2022101118, , BEST, 0, 194N, 942W, 35, 1008, DB https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal932022.dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Karl Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 ...KARL FORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 94.4W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 Do we need a separate thread for Karl? Tropical Storm Karl Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142022 400 PM CDT Tue Oct 11 2022 Tropical Storm Karl has formed over the Bay of Campeche. Aircraft and scatterometer data show a closed circulation with a relatively large radius of maximum winds and a broad area of light and variable winds near the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft found believable SFMR wind speeds of 35 kt and flight-level winds up to 46 kt while investigating the system. The scatterometer data also showed a large area of 30-35 kt winds to the north of the center. The initial intensity is set to 35 kt based on these data. Karl is moving slowly northwestward at an estimated 5 kt. The storm is embedded in a high pressure system, and this motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. Thereafter, the ridge is likely to build westward and steer the cyclone southwestward into the coast of Mexico in a few days. The official forecast is close to the consensus guidance, though this is an uncertain forecast due to the spread in the forecast track models near landfall. Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are forecast to be conducive for Karl during the next day or so. This should allow Karl to strengthen before global models suggest the vertical wind shear increases and causes gradual weakening before landfall. Rapid decay is expected once the storm moves inland due to the mountainous terrain. The NHC intensity forecast peaks at 45 kt in 24 h which is close to the SHIPS guidance, though all of guidance is clustered near this value. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and in the southern Sierra Madre Oriental mountains and adjacent coastal areas with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Mexico starting Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 20.3N 94.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 21.2N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 20.7N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 60H 14/0600Z 20.2N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 19.9N 97.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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