George001 Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Amped said: More fun times ahead. Wow. There are a few lows deepening to the 950s and 960s. People wrote off this hurricane season as a low ACE season too soon. 150 ACE can’t be ruled out based on what the models are saying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Like I said in the Ian thread, this hurricane season might change things for Florida and how they operate with respect to development on coastlines. All of those lows I imagine get dragged north by something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 No rest for the weary 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 Do NOT like the trend between yesterdays 0z EPS and todays 12z Appears to be associated with the tropical wave along 40W. Quote A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 38W, from 04N to 19N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 13N, between 35W and 43W. A recent scatterometer pass found moderate to fresh winds shifting from E to NE across the wave axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 GEFS trend. Becoming uncomfortable very quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 06z GFS with a lot of members hitting SW Florida... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Low Pressure Lunacy Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 16 hours ago, Normandy said: Like I said in the Ian thread, this hurricane season might change things for Florida and how they operate with respect to development on coastlines. All of those lows I imagine get dragged north by something. Desicion makers in Floriduh will never do the right thing, because they are corrupt and their moto is private proffits over public interests. Have sat across the table from them & the developers too many years begging them to do the right thing and they never do, they pay millions for studies they ignore, and use greed as their guide. Too many humans get their rocks off over death and destruction, and create war to continue that high, and to feed the greed. Think that may be why tropical cyclones are given human names, humans envy the power of destruction. Ian destroyed this area, and it fu#%ing sucks. 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 37 minutes ago, Low Pressure Lunacy said: Desicion makers in Floriduh will never do the right thing, because they are corrupt and their moto is private proffits over public interests. Have sat across the table from them & the developers too many years begging them to do the right thing and they never do, they pay millions for studies they ignore, and use greed as their guide. Too many humans get their rocks off over death and destruction, and create war to continue that high, and to feed the greed. Think that may be why tropical cyclones are given human names, humans envy the power of destruction. Ian destroyed this area, and it fu#%ing sucks. Sadly agree with you. Good friends of mine barely escaped from Fort Myers Beach with their lives. Other friends and family are shaken. Look how Florida handled the Surfside condo collapse. Just pay off victims and families of the deceased so we can move on with business as usual. Have to keep the tourism merry go round going to fund the state. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Jersey Andrew said: Sadly agree with you. Good friends of mine barely escaped from Fort Myers Beach with their lives. Other friends and family are shaken. Look how Florida handled the Surfside condo collapse. Just pay off victims and families of the deceased so we can move on with business as usual. Have to keep the tourism merry go round going to fund the state. I can see both sides of this. On the other hand, we saw after Andrew the building codes were vastly improved which has caused far less damage to occur in recent storms than what could have been. The outcome of Surfside was the state legislature passing new inspection requirements instead of the old 40 year requirement. What other outcome do you think would have been sufficient other than that and paying off the families? And regarding the developers, they only make money if people want to live where they build. Should the blame be on the developers or the people who choose to live on the coast? It's not like the residents aren't aware of the risks, they would just rather live near the water. Same can be said about small business owners like those stores and restaurants in Fort Myers Beach. People will always go to the beach and those business owners want to provide them services. Honest question: what do you think a solution should be? Passing legislation prohibiting building a certain distance from the coast? I don't think only developers would be against that but all those other residents and business owners who want waterfront properties. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 you can do whatever you want as a land owner. Just do not dip into state and federal funds to rebuild. This includes road access, infrastructure, etc. that’s what the solution should be (because not building near the water is not even an option for us stupid humans) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 06z GFS with a lot of members hitting SW Florida...Its a prime area for deveolpment this time of year. There is euro support too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 5 hours ago, Jersey Andrew said: Sadly agree with you. Good friends of mine barely escaped from Fort Myers Beach with their lives. Other friends and family are shaken. Look how Florida handled the Surfside condo collapse. Just pay off victims and families of the deceased so we can move on with business as usual. Have to keep the tourism merry go round going to fund the state. People also choose to build and live in hurricane prone areas, just as they choose to live in tornado alley or on a fault line. People also choose to evacuate or not. Ft Myers was in the cone the entire time. I'm sorry for their loss but personal decisions are real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 1, 2022 Share Posted October 1, 2022 2 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: People also choose to build and live in hurricane prone areas, just as they choose to live in tornado alley or on a fault line. People also choose to evacuate or not. Ft Myers was in the cone the entire time. I'm sorry for their loss but personal decisions are real. Sadly I don’t blame anyone but the people who choose to live in these hurricane prone areas and especially those who don’t evacuate. My family had property on the NC coast and we know the risks. TWC interviewed a couple who lost their house in a California Wildfire a few years ago. Their solution? Put everything into a house boat the left docked in fort myers… I mean I’m sorry they lost their boat (house) but at some point you just have to shake your head at the decisions some people make for their lives. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 We’re getting to a point with climate change and global warming where any bad weather event or an earthquake can affect anyone anywhere. We just had a tropical system with (I believe) sub-930mb of pressure hit freakin Nova Scotia. Do we start blaming people for living near the NS coast? Do we blame people living near an Iowa cornfield when there’s a tornado or a derecho that destroys their home? Should people not live in California because of the San Andreas fault? When it comes down to it, I would guess a vast majority of the time, these are people with serious roots dug into whatever location they/their family grew up in. It’s not easy to just pick everything up and start a new life in a place you THINK is safe from Mother Nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 In the past day this wave has blossomed into one of the better looking ones this season, with lots of convection, a relatively moist environment, and growing vorticity. Early October can often signal an end to threats from the deep tropical Atlantic, but the delayed nature of this season could mean a later end to CV season as well. The UL to the left will provide some short-term barriers to intensification, but I would not be surprised to see a tropical system developing before it reaches the Caribbean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted October 2, 2022 Author Share Posted October 2, 2022 Really strong trough building in the east, everything that develops will have to stay way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 hour ago, tiger_deF said: In the past day this wave has blossomed into one of the better looking ones this season, with lots of convection, a relatively moist environment, and growing vorticity. Early October can often signal an end to threats from the deep tropical Atlantic, but the delayed nature of this season could mean a later end to CV season as well. The UL to the left will provide some short-term barriers to intensification, but I would not be surprised to see a tropical system developing before it reaches the Caribbean. No idea why people aren't discussing this. Globals unanimously depict favorable anomalously easterly upper flow over the Caribbean, consistent with La Nina. This looks like trouble to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Ridiculously small file size limit of 1.95mb means I can't post an actual loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Here's a link to a real loop (ie, more than five frames): https://i.postimg.cc/DZFc677f/47489913.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 1 hour ago, StruThiO said: No idea why people aren't discussing this. Globals unanimously depict favorable anomalously easterly upper flow over the Caribbean, consistent with La Nina. This looks like trouble to me. Possible but it might just head into central america. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 Strange though that none of the operational models really do much with this wave. They all keep it weak and into central America or it seems the GFS strings it out and splits it apart between the greater Antilles. One of the things I'm seeing with the models this year is they don't pick up on cyclogenesis until right before it happens which is what we saw with Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 What’s going to change things in terms of building is a change in gov back-stopping bad decisions. I don’t trust gov to do that by choice; it’s much the opposite. But for the first time in 40+ years inflation is ripping while deficit is worst in our nation’s history and a new hot war with a Great Power in Europe (further straining resources). This combination means stimulus is now stim-u-less, as any major package will come with immediate negative short term impacts for the nation in terms of higher inflation. The big stimulus packages that followed Sandy and Harvey can’t happen today. Many Americans are going to have to look at these natural risks like much of the rest of the world. It’s going to be a very tough lesson for whoever built their life around the previous chapter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 52 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Strange though that none of the operational models really do much with this wave. They all keep it weak and into central America or it seems the GFS strings it out and splits it apart between the greater Antilles. One of the things I'm seeing with the models this year is they don't pick up on cyclogenesis until right before it happens which is what we saw with Ian. Ian took a while to organize. The western Caribbean is where it all came together. The early guidance was too bullish in the Eastern and central Caribbean. At the same time this is what allowed Ian to make it as far west Florida, given all the persistent deep troughing over the eastern CONUS. Given the pattern you need any developing system to make it west of the northern Bahamas to have any shot of directly impacting the US. A weak system greatly increases these odds, following the low level easterlies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 I'd recommend being wary of GEFS members showing a potential path northward for the system entering the Caribbean middle of this week. IMHO, *if* it fails to become a TS with a well-defined circulation before the latitude of the Dominican Republic (~70W), it looks most likely to be a straight W/WNW tracker like the Tampico Hurricane in 1933, Janet in 1954, Joan in 1988 and Iris in 2001, heading into Central America or southern Mexico. However, if it manages to develop sooner, especially on approach to the Windward Islands, the picture becomes much more complicated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 The CMC is the first to show a real storm. CMC was overdone on the westward movement of Ian and Fiona, that maybe what allows it to escape the ULL on this run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 2 minutes ago, Amped said: The CMC is the first to show a real storm. CMC was overdone on the westward movement of Ian and Fiona, that maybe what allows it to escape the ULL on this run. Indeed, this is by far the strongest the CMC has had this. @Iceresistance recently started a thread about this wave: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted October 2, 2022 Share Posted October 2, 2022 GEFS now showing some earlier development compared to 24 hrs ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted October 3, 2022 Share Posted October 3, 2022 The thing off Nicaragua is interesting. Might be a sleeper system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Several models including the 12Z Euro, ICON, and JMA are showing low surface pressures being left behind next week in the SW Caribbean after 91L is gone fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted October 4, 2022 Share Posted October 4, 2022 Current ACE plot 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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