Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 22, 2022 Share Posted June 22, 2022 Moderately interesting out 10 days. Multiple models and their ensembles. The lead wave tries to organize in the SW Caribbean but runs out of time, the wave after, most models run it into CA as well, but enough ensembles further North that a Yucatan system early July isn't impossible. And late June, not impossible isn't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 A lot more of a consensus for next week on 12z suite, as a result NHC has added a hatched area 0/20 for this system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 23, 2022 Share Posted June 23, 2022 12z Euro is impressive for July. Very similar path to hurricane Felix. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 24, 2022 Share Posted June 24, 2022 20/40 odds now and that should only go up. The upper environment to the west, especially in the Caribbean, is highly anomalous with very little shear. We’ll see if the current wave is able to maximize potential should the pattern materialize, but it’s one to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 24, 2022 Share Posted June 24, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 24, 2022 Share Posted June 24, 2022 There has not been a major Hurricane in the Atlantic basin in July since Emily 2005. This has some potential given the track and favorable conditions shown on the GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 24, 2022 Share Posted June 24, 2022 Just now, Amped said: There has not been a major Hurricane in the Atlantic basin in July since Emily 2005. This has some potential given the track and favorable conditions shown on the GFS and Euro. Bertha 2008 was a Cat 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 24, 2022 Share Posted June 24, 2022 It’s early so it’s just speculation at this point, but we know that given how far south the wave is and the time of year, this one is unlikely to gain a lot of latitude before getting into the central Caribbean. That said, once it gets there, the ensemble guidance today has been less aggressive with ridging. This one could be a long tracker with an eventual trip to the Gulf/SW Atlantic. It does kind of have an Elsa vibe. Long way to go obviously… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 24, 2022 Share Posted June 24, 2022 The wave had been designated Invest 94L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 24, 2022 Share Posted June 24, 2022 1 hour ago, Floydbuster said: Bertha 2008 was a Cat 3. Thanks, forgot about that one. It's still been a long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted June 25, 2022 Share Posted June 25, 2022 Models have been flirting with the potential of a quick spin up off the Texas coast early next week. Seems a toss up right now of an organized tropical system, but should at least bring some well needed rain across parts of Texas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsman Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 Something (to me anyway) looks interesting in the central Bahamas. COD satellite link: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 27, 2022 Share Posted June 27, 2022 1 hour ago, marsman said: Something (to me anyway) looks interesting in the central Bahamas. COD satellite link: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined Could have been a contender, but there’s some significant shear evident on that loop (the cloud tops getting blown away). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 30, 2022 Share Posted June 30, 2022 All the areas of interest in the basin are pretty pathetic today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 What a look on the radar 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 51 minutes ago, nwohweather said: What a look on the radar That looks better than former PTC Two and 95L ever did lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: That looks better than former PTC Two and 95L ever did lol Honestly though how is this not a system? Defined center, has its own moisture transport and has it's strongest winds in the NE quadrant of the "eye". If you get some sustained 40-45 that'd be enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaPilot Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 Noticed that swirl off the SC/GA coast on the Sat imagery this am. More returns now associated with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 16 minutes ago, nwohweather said: Honestly though how is this not a system? Defined center, has its own moisture transport and has it's strongest winds in the NE quadrant of the "eye". If you get some sustained 40-45 that'd be enough They've designated far worse lol. In all seriousness though, I don't think it's unreasonable to give this some official odds, given the well defined center that seems to be staying offshore for now, persistent convection, and banding structure that seems to be developing. That said, it needs to be persistent. If it can push a little further offshore it may have a chance. Interesting looking at the long range radar as it looks like the original convection ejected an LLC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 1 hour ago, nwohweather said: What a look on the radar Due to this coastal low/trough and the associated deep Atlantic moisture, I've received 4" since midnight with 3.5" of that during just midnight-3AM causing significant street flooding. This is the heaviest daily rainfall here since way back on 9/20/21, which wasn't from a tropical cyclone as that was due to converging surface flow off the Gulf and Atlantic (although moisture may have been enhanced by the remnants of Nicholas). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 From the recent MCD Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0423 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1224 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022 Areas affected...Coastal Lowcountry of Georgia and South Carolina Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 011623Z - 012200Z Summary...Coastal low pressure will bring heavy rain to the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina through this evening. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr will likely train onshore, leading to instances of flash flooding. Discussion...An area of low pressure is clearly evident on the regional radar mosaic this morning as a closed swirl of reflectivity just east of Tybee Island, GA. This circulation has become better organized this morning along an inverted trough, and is responsible for heavy rainfall exceeding 4 inches that fell near Chatham, GA overnight. In the vicinity of this low, cooling cloud tops are occurring just offshore, with a stripe of enhanced upper diffluence noted in the GOES-E WV imagery stretching from northern GA into eastern NC. The 12Z U/A sounding out of KCHS measured a PW of 2.11 inches, above the 90th percentile for the date, with a freezing level approaching 15,000 ft and a mean 700-500mb lapse rate of 5.5C/km. These together with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg imply efficient warm rain processes, and radar-estimated rain rates from KCLX have been over 1.5"/hr this morning. As the low continues to move slowly northeast along the coast through this aftn, it is likely to consolidate and at least subtly strengthen. As this occurs, pinched flow northeast of the center will help push the 850mb LLJ to 20 kts out of the southeast. This will originate near the Gulf Stream, transporting the warm, more moist and unstable air onshore, helping to resupply favorable thermodynamics to the area through the aftn. The combination of increasing convergence on the nose of the LLJ, any frictional convergence near the coast, and broad upper diffluence will drive pronounced ascent, leading to increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms. With the thermodynamics likely to remain extremely favorable, this will support an intensification of rain rates which could exceed 2"/hr at times as shown by the HREF probabilities and HRRR sub-hourly precipitation forecasts. The heaviest rainfall is likely along the immediate coast northeast of the low, which could receive more than 3" of rainfall. This is where the best training potential of these heavy rates exists as upwind propagation vectors become increasingly opposed to the mean flow. This indicates the likelihood for backbuilding of cells into the offshore instability with these subsequently training onshore. However, additional heavy rain is likely near and just west of the low center where storm motions will slow to less than 5 kts, while still containing impressive rain rates. The FFG across the area is generally 2-3"/1hr and 3-4"/3hrs, which the HREF indicates has a 20-30% chance for exceedance through late this aftn, suggesting at least isolated flash flooding in urban areas or where the most efficient training occurs. While this MPD is only valid through early evening, additional MPDs may be needed for the continued flash flood threat into tonight as the low continues to trek up the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 I love TC genesis near the coast because you can really follow things on radar. While convection looks pretty disorganized on IR, the radar shows the apparent banding near the center, which is quite compelling IMO. It's drifting offshore too rather than moving toward the coast, meaning for now at least, there is time for additional organization. I haven't seen anything impressive in the way of velocities or pressure drops based on radar and buoy data, but this really just popped a few hours ago. I think this is worth some odds at 2pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 10% odds from the NHC. I think that's reasonable. Let's see if this area can stay persistent and offshore. No matter what, cool to watch (for me at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I love TC genesis near the coast because you can really follow things on radar. While convection looks pretty disorganized on IR, the radar shows the apparent banding near the center, which is quite compelling IMO. It's drifting offshore too rather than moving toward the coast, meaning for now at least, there is time for additional organization. I haven't seen anything impressive in the way of velocities or pressure drops based on radar and buoy data, but this really just popped a few hours ago. I think this is worth some odds at 2pm. Kudos for being on top of this! I'm not saying I'm expecting imminent tropical development, especially with it not too far offshore, but obviously there's plenty of moisture at multiple levels and SSTs are conducive in the area with 82-84 F. So, although conditions for development are far from ideal with areas of moderate+ shear nearby and it not being far from shore, a TD forming from this wouldn't be shocking assuming it stays offshore. It should continue moving very slowly N and then probably NE near or just offshore SC. Regardless of whether or not it becomes a TC, this is interesting to watch spin around and it has and will likely continue to be a significant wx maker in terms of heavy rainfall potential in the coastal Carolinas as it was here earlier today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: Kudos for being on top of this! I'm not saying I'm expecting imminent tropical development, especially with it not too far offshore, but obviously there's plenty of moisture at multiple levels and SSTs are conducive in the area with 82-84 F. So, although conditions for development are far from ideal with areas of moderate+ shear nearby and it not being far from shore, a TD forming from this wouldn't be shocking assuming it stays offshore. It should continue moving very slowly N and then probably NE near or just offshore SC. Regardless, this is interesting to watch and it has and will likely continue to be a significant wx maker in terms of heavy rainfall potential in the coastal Carolinas as it was here earlier today. I love this stuff, and it has been a boring start to the season so it's nice to have a close to the coast opportunity. I feel like I learn the most about the elements of TC genesis from the under the radar disturbances, even if they don't develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I love this stuff, and it has been a boring start to the season so it's nice to have a close to the coast opportunity. I feel like I learn the most about the elements of TC genesis from the under the radar disturbances, even if they don't develop. Being that I'm not too many miles from the coast and thus am subject to major disruption to my family and myself from strong TCs, I'm fine with them nearby as long as they stay pretty weak! This is now Invest 96L by the way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 1, 2022 Share Posted July 1, 2022 New thread for Invest 96L: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 New tropical update, first one in a couple weeks. Not much going on, but I recap on TS Colin and TS Bonnie, and I explain that even though it seems quiet the real season has yet to begin, and that this low-level of activity in June/July is normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 Looks to me we are headed for low pressure locking in over the northeast with a big east coast trof. Weak season like last year looking more likely. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 3, 2022 Share Posted July 3, 2022 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: Looks to me we are headed for low pressure locking in over the northeast with a big east coast trof. Weak season like last year looking more likely. Do you or does anyone else here remember the VA Beach troll poster from way back when on EasternUSwx named "Rainstorm"? Each summer at about this time "she" would post that the east coast was going to be safe from the tropics due to protective east coast troughing, WNW 500 mb flow, etc. She was really good at upsetting the tropical weenies. It was pretty funny. That is until her area got slammed head on by Isabel soon after one of her east coast trough posts! She turned out ok, but oh the irony. I saw her most recently on Storm2K a few years back using another name but identical trolling. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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