Normandy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Season already has been disastrous. Members who still talk about seasonal busts should be 5-posted instantly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 "bust" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, Normandy said: Season already has been disastrous. Members who still talk about seasonal busts should be 5-posted instantly. Everyone was predicting an ABOVE AVERAGE season of 17-8-4, are we seeing this? No. 9-4-2 is this seasons totals so far and the setup for Oct isn't impressive, it's safe say to that in terms of storm numbers and ACE, this season will be average. The only 2 major hurricanes made significant impacts and that's the only reason anyone will remember this season. I'll say it again an impactful season doesn't have to be an active season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said: Everyone was predicting an ABOVE AVERAGE season of 17-8-4, are we seeing this? No. 9-4-2 is this seasons totals so far and the setup for Oct isn't impressive, it's safe say to that in terms of storm numbers and ACE, this season will be average. The only 2 major hurricanes made significant impacts and that's the only reason anyone will remember this season. I'll say it again an impactful season doesn't have to be an active season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 The season is not over. I don’t know how else to illustrate to people this point. It’s maddening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, Normandy said: The season is not over. I don’t know how else to illustrate to people this point. It’s maddening The parameters for Oct doesn't look favorable with more cold fronts and dry air, while another big storm is possible but unless we see an October like 2020 or 2005, we're not going to break average numbers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted September 27, 2022 Share Posted September 27, 2022 Not an active season. Period. Stop it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 Unfortunately, as has been reiterated time and time again, it only takes one to make a season memorable and historic, regardless of overall activity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 28, 2022 Share Posted September 28, 2022 On 9/18/2022 at 6:54 PM, GaWx said: There are a significant number (nearly 25%) of 12Z EPS members landfalling on the CONUS 9/29-10/2 as hurricanes or as a strong TS from TX through NC with also a couple of still offshore threats. At least half of these hit the FL Gulf coast, which is my #1 risk area this season based on third year cold ENSO analogs. Being that this was a more active EPS run than prior ones, I wouldn't be surprised if most of the next ones over the next few days aren't as active. Regardless, this will more than likely be the next potential threat period on the CONUS. Good call 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 12:21 PM, Tallis Rockwell said: Everyone was predicting another hyperactive system which we are still not seeing, 1 or 2 major landfalls doesn't mean the season is active. Let's say that there are only 4 hurricanes for a season but that all make landfalls, does it sudden;y make the season active? Of course not. An impactful season doesn't have to be an active season. ACE is ALREADY NEAR-NORMAL. On 9/27/2022 at 2:02 PM, Tallis Rockwell said: we're not going to break average numbers WE ALREADY DID Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Maybe another one 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Looking ahead, models are in agreement that another AEW will be emerging in a couple days which will develop in the eastern Atlantic. Kinda surprised the NHC hasn't lemoned it yet since all models show it developing in less than 5 days. Euro and icon have it riding low, GFS and CMC have it quickly curving out. Longer range, GFS is hinting at another Caribbean storm, bombing it out on the 06z run to 922 mb... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 6z GEFS; 0z EPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 On 9/27/2022 at 3:25 PM, Normandy said: Season already has been disastrous. Members who still talk about seasonal busts should be 5-posted instantly. Based on preseason forecasts such as 20/10/5 it is a bust. It will however be a memorable season for a long time due to Ian. Euro shows a very late season MDR storm. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022092900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 28 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Based on preseason forecasts such as 20/10/5 it is a bust. It will however be a memorable season for a long time due to Ian. Euro shows a very late season MDR storm. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022092900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr Dude the point is stop throwing in the towel early every time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Dude the point is stop throwing in the towel early every time. I was saying all along the season was depending on 1 storm to form that would make it memorable. It happened this time. JB is saying 1 more between where fiona and ian went 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 The pattern flipped late, but it flipped. We may be facing an active October. We aren't going to reach hyperactive for the season, but active/above normal is looking like a lock. We are now in a +AMO setup. If this had occurred in August as was previously forecasted by seasonal outlooks, the year probably would have ended up hyperactive. Wave breaking issues aside, this is a classic look... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Here we go again. All models seem to be petty bullish on this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 12 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Here we go again. All models seem to be petty bullish on this. Recurve city that far out this time of year? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 38 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Recurve city that far out this time of year? We wouldn't know that for sure this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 We are at 8/4/2 and have no idea how active October and November are going to be. A season busting is not one that falls a bit short of expectations. People need to stop this whole “need to make a claim first just so I can be the first to say if and be right” mentality. It’s makes you look stupid. if we are at thanksgiving eating turkey and sitting on 11/5/2….. that’s a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Recurve city that far out this time of year? You'd think but the last two euro runs keep it low and quite a few GEFS members do as well... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Going into October it is getting pretty late to get something forming just past the CVs to make it all the way. Do we have 11 NS with a PTC and a TD? I think the fishing lemon, if named, would get us to 10 NS. I could be wrong, it has happened before. Look for the Caribbean. Euro and GFS ensembles have a few members with storms, but nothing painfully obvious down there next 10 days but after that, MJO is not in the right place yet, but headed there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 4 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Recurve city that far out this time of year? Going back to the known tracks since 1851, the latest on record that a TC formed in the MDR east of 50W and then later hit the CONUS was Sept. 25th (that was in 1893 and hit SC as a MH in mid Oct.) The 2nd latest formed on Sept 21st. We're looking at something possibly forming in the E MDR ~1 week later than Sept 25th. If it does, I'd bet very heavily based on over 150 years of history that it wouldn't threaten the CONUS. But if it waits til after 50W, then that would be a somewhat different story. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 29, 2022 Share Posted September 29, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 Number of 150+ mph hurricanes in the entire Atlantic in the decade of the 1980's: 3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1575692301665333248?s=46&t=po7jyfuLJh7ZOOxtnYMNWQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 11 hours ago, StruThiO said: https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1575692301665333248?s=46&t=po7jyfuLJh7ZOOxtnYMNWQ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 I know this is not what residents in the Greater Antilles and along the Southeast US coast want to hear after Fiona and Ian respectively dealt them a severe blow, but looks to me that early Oct will be quite active, and not just in the usual W. Caribbean hurricane breeding grounds for this time of year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 30, 2022 Share Posted September 30, 2022 More fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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