2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[MANDA]

Convection with potential GOM threat this is currently located east of the islands is looking robust this morning.  Fairly far south but quite robust.  Three major global models (GFS/Canadian/EURO) are all developing this wave once to the central and western Caribbean.  All three models showing something 4-6 days out is something we've not seen in the tropics so far this season.  Climo favors more central / western Caribbean development this time of year so that combined with models showing little development before then suggests system will only slowly organize for the balance of the week.  Assuming it does and assuming atmospheric conditions are favorable once system reaches the western Caribbean it will be passing over the highest oceanic heat content in the Atlantic Basin.  Potential is there for something noteworthy.  That says nothing though to what potential intensity would be at any potential U.S. landfall.  That will depend on many things.  Something to watch for sure though with the good model genesis agreement down the road.  Any CONUS U.S. threats for the rest of the season are going to have to come from a system like this - i.e. lifting north from Caribbean / GOM.  Classic CV threats are over for this season.

[Maxwell03]

This rotten spinner in the subtropical Atlantic is going to steal the name Gaston and we're gonna have to deal with a land bound storm named .... Hermine 

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, Maxwell03 said:

This rotten spinner in the subtropical Atlantic is going to steal the name Gaston and we're gonna have to deal with a land bound storm named .... Hermine 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, Maxwell03 said:

This rotten spinner in the subtropical Atlantic is going to steal the name Gaston and we're gonna have to deal with a land bound storm named .... Hermine 

 This would mean there's a good chance for the FL Gulf coast to be hit by Hurricane Hermine twice in a row after getting the prior one in 2016.

 The wave E of the Windwards that could turn into Hermine is now Invest 98L and is looking more potent.

[jbenedet]

Early thoughts...

 

Pretty damn interesting seeing track of Earl, then Fiona, and what will likely be Gaston/Hermine in coming days.

With each storm, seeing a significant shift south/west, 

Persistence and the teleconnections both favor deep upper level troughs over the eastern CONUS over the next 10 days. With this, I anticipate Gaston/Hermine will be an east coast threat vs a GULF of Mexico threat. 

Earl passed northwest of PR, Fiona, over eastern Hispaniola, Gaston/Hermine over eastern Cuba? Fill in the rest.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Early thoughts...

 

Pretty damn interesting seeing track of Earl, then Fiona, and what will likely be Gaston in coming days.

With each storm, seeing a significant shift south/west, 

Persistence and the teleconnections both favor deep upper level troughs over the eastern CONUS over the next 10 days. With this, I anticipate Gaston will be an east coast threat vs a GULF of Mexico threat. 

Earl passed northwest of PR, Fiona, over eastern Hispaniola, Gaston over eastern Cuba? Fill in the rest.

Pretty sure Gaston is about to pop up and head towards the Azores…

[hawkeye_wx]

25 minutes ago, Maxwell03 said:

This rotten spinner in the subtropical Atlantic is going to steal the name Gaston and we're gonna have to deal with a land bound storm named .... Hermine 

Not necessarily.  Look way out to the east.  The Euro is immediately developing the next African wave as soon as it emerges into the Atlantic.  The gulf storm could be Ian.

[Prismshine Productions]

Not necessarily.  Look way out to the east.  The Euro is immediately developing the next African wave as soon as it emerges into the Atlantic.  The gulf storm could be Ian.

Oh no... The "I storm curse"

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[Brian5671]

15 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Early thoughts...

 

Pretty damn interesting seeing track of Earl, then Fiona, and what will likely be Gaston/Hermine in coming days.

With each storm, seeing a significant shift south/west, 

Persistence and the teleconnections both favor deep upper level troughs over the eastern CONUS over the next 10 days. With this, I anticipate Gaston/Hermine will be an east coast threat vs a GULF of Mexico threat. 

Earl passed northwest of PR, Fiona, over eastern Hispaniola, Gaston/Hermine over eastern Cuba? Fill in the rest.

If there's a deep trough over the East US I think a quick recurve off the east coast could be on the table too?

[jbenedet]

55 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

If there's a deep trough over the East US I think a quick recurve off the east coast could be on the table too?

Yes.  Of course.

Basically all I'm saying is, given persistence and the synoptic scale players Downeast ME and Cape cod, are a lot more interesting (right now) than Southern Florida or the Gulf of Mexico. 

[NorthHillsWx]

New TD in the middle of the Atlantic 

[NorthHillsWx]

Gaston might make a run at hurricane status just based on its rapidly improving presentation. Wow, this season has flipped the switch

[Superstorm93]

[NorthHillsWx]

4 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Yea, that’s probably stronger than 35 kts 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Gaston might make a run at hurricane status just based on its rapidly improving presentation. Wow, this season has flipped the switch

 We already have had 3 hurricanes this month. There will very likely be at least a 4th from 98L. If Gaston were to become a H, there would then very likely be 5 this month. If we get to 5, that would tie for the most in Sept. since the active era started in 1995!

[MJO812]

Gefs clustered near Florida

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 We already have had 3 hurricanes this month. There will very likely be at least a 4th from 98L. If Gaston were to become a H, there would then very likely be 5 this month. If we get to 5, that would tie for the most in Sept. since the active era started in 1995!

It’d probably put me a little ahead of where I want to be with my peak forecast too lol. Crazy how Gaston was a sheared low last night.

[WxWatcher007]

Gaston!

 

[MJO812]

Busy

[Rtd208]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Busy

The tropical activity went from zero to 100 in short order.

[Windspeed]

Discussion of 98L becoming Hurricane Hermine are bit premature. The AEW/AOI in the eastern MDR is gaining support for development. It's quite possible 98L will be slower to go through TCG until the central Carribean versus the AEW in the visible imagery that is a more concentrated surface low right now. The MDR AOI doesn't even have an invest tag yet, but it may not be long today. The Caribbean system could be the dreaded "I" storm. Though of course that's all poppycock superstitious hogwash.

[cptcatz]

Four cyclones now in the basin. Anything from ldub?

Race is on between 9 and 10 for Hermine and Ian.

[GaWx]

40 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Four cyclones now in the basin. Anything from ldub?

Race is on between 9 and 10 for Hermine and Ian.

 In reality per the NHC discussion, #10 is quite possibly already a TS and it is forecasted to be upgraded to one later today. In contrast, #9 is still undergoing strong shear though it also is forecasted to be upgraded later today.

#10: "The initial wind speed is set to 30 kt, perhaps conservatively since the eastern side of the circulation has not been sampled by scatterometer or aircraft data."

"The depression has about a day over warm water in light to moderate shear before all the models blast the system with strong upper- level southwesterly winds. Most of the guidance shows this system becoming a tropical storm before weakening significantly by late this weekend and dissipating early next week. The official wind speed prediction is near the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance HCCA."

  They could both be upgraded at the next regular advisory. If so, it would seemingly come down to minutes since it would probably be dependent on which one has the earlier issued advisory. If we base it on the just released ones, TD #10 would have the better chance to be called Hermine because TD #10's package was released about 10 minutes earlier than the 11AM for TD #9.

 

[gymengineer]

With another "I" storm possibly bringing significant damage to the US, I thought it would be a quick, interesting exercise to see how much "I" storms have cost the US in just the past two decades. I left out Iniki because Iniki was the third name used that season from the Central Pacific list, not the ninth. These damage totals are in 2022 CPI adjusted dollars. 

Isabel (2003): $8.7 Billion

Ivan (2004): $31.6 Billion

Ike (2008): $40.2 Billion

Irene (2011): $17.4 Billion

Isaac (2012): $3.5 Billion

Irma (2017): $59.5 Billion

Imelda (2019): $5.7 Billion

Isaias (2020): $5.3 Billion

Ida (2021): $78.7 Billion

Total: $250.6 Billion in damage

As a frame of reference, this amount is close to the total damage to the US from the 2005 hurricane season, and about 80% the total damage from 2017, the two costliest seasons by far. 

[GaWx]

 The entire September average ACE 1991-2020 was 56. This September's MTD ACE is already 58 with lots more to come from Ian if he hits the forecasted strength. If so, a Sept of 70+ would occur with even a shot at 75, which would be 34% above the 30 year average.

 The 30 year average ACE for Sept 16-30 is 24.5. If it gets to 75 as of Sept 30, that would mean an actual ACE of 43 for 9/16-30, which would be 75% above the 30 year average!

 A 75 in Sept would give us 78 season to date vs the 30 year average of 94 STD. An active Oct/Nov would make it possible to get close to the entire season average of 123.

[ldub23]

On 9/23/2022 at 10:51 AM, cptcatz said:

Four cyclones now in the basin. Anything from ldub?

Race is on between 9 and 10 for Hermine and Ian.

Yea, a  bunch of  nothing. Even Ian  will be a tropical storm at landfall unless  it takes a  hard right south of  Tampa. I see this  and  my eye  glaze  over. 2004-05-03-07-11 1996-99-85-79-71-50-54-55-59-60-64-65-69 it aint. Oh, and  1970 had carla which is far  more than this season will produce. What the  heck 1933-35-36-39 40-44-47.

2018-17-12. I  could  go on even more. That  map is full of  nothing.

[nycwinter]

8 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Yea, a  bunch of  nothing. Even Ian  will be a tropical storm at landfall unless  it takes a  hard right south of  Tampa. I see this  and  my eye  glaze  over. 2004-05-03-07-11 1996-99-85-79-71-50-54-55-59-60-64-65-69 it aint. Oh, and  1970 had carla which is far  more than this season will produce. What the  heck 1933-35-36-39 40-44-47.

2018-17-12. I  could  go on even more. That  map is full of  nothing.

you said this season would amount to nothing already we have a name that will be retire in fiona.. and who knows maybe ian as well we shall see..

[StruThiO]

Up to two high-impact sure-to-be-retired major hurricanes before October with an entrenched La Nina. Wheres the 2013peat bustcasters now? I demand a refund

[GaWx]

On 9/26/2022 at 9:04 AM, nycwinter said:

you said this season would amount to nothing already we have a name that will be retire in fiona.. and who knows maybe ian as well we shall see..

Nobody should ever take the troll ldub (ex rainstorm, who has been doing the same kind of trolling for 20 years back to the Wright Wx BB days) seriously. It is pretty funny to read the replies debating ldub as if he or she were being intellectually honest.

[Tallis Rockwell]

6 hours ago, StruThiO said:

Up to two high-impact sure-to-be-retired major hurricanes before October with an entrenched La Nina. Wheres the 2013peat bustcasters now? I demand a refund

Everyone was predicting another hyperactive system which we are still not seeing, 1 or 2 major landfalls doesn't mean the season is active. Let's say that there are only 4 hurricanes for a season but that all make landfalls, does it sudden;y make the season active? Of course not. An impactful season doesn't have to be an active season.