Superstorm93 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It's not the GFS, but the 12z Euro does have more development of that wave in just a few days time. Honestly, not that far from what the 12z UKIE showed as well. I'd side with slower development over the next several days. This really could be one to watch since we're in that time of year when anything with some spin can absolutely take off in the WCARB. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 20 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: Honestly, not that far from what the 12z UKIE showed as well. I'd side with slower development over the next several days. This really could be one to watch since we're in that time of year when anything with some spin can absolutely take off in the WCARB. And sure enough, it took off on the 12z Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 12z Euro puts a 954 in the gulf at hr228Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: And sure enough, it took off on the 12z Euro. Per 12Z Euro 240, it appears to be aiming for the FL Panhandle 9/29-30 as a MH. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 *948 at hr240, heading northSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, GaWx said: Per 12Z Euro 240, it appears to be aiming for the FL Panhandle 9/29-30 as a MH. Targets your highlighted area for the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Here comes the shrimp storm. Can’t let a year pass without one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 12z EPS definitely looks spooky with a ton of member developing the wave once it reaches the WCARB. Ton of time to watch this one. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 I was looking at 'homebrew' SW Carb/BoC development, and the active EPac had me thinking maybe not, but a late MDR wave starting in the E Caribbean, I hadn't considered that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Spicy talk has begun. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Well we need the AEW to spawn a surface low before I get too excited, but obviously if we do see genesis out of this, the modeled potential is worth the superlatives. It appears the Atlantic got tired of the whining and woke up. If this and a few other systems pan out, we should push ahead of normal climatological ACE into an active season. But unless the Caribbean goes bonkers in October, I am pretty confident we won't eek out a hyperactive season at this point.Here a nice tweet describing the setup for the potential future TC into the Caribbean. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Tezeta said: Here comes the shrimp storm. Can’t let a year pass without one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 From a Ryan Maue tweet. The Euro ensemble really likes a gulf storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 19, 2022 Share Posted September 19, 2022 As Fiona strengthens and heads towards Bermuda, we must keep an eye on the wave in the Central Atlantic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Has some similarities to Frederick 1979 though David went much further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Since we have reached quite a remarkable consensus, a lot could still change, but this would be a big win for the GFS. GFS has been sniffing this system out since the 12z run of September 15th. If it were to form, would be about 10-12 days of lead time which is excellent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said: Since we have reached quite a remarkable consensus, a lot could still change, but this would be a big win for the GFS. GFS has been sniffing this system out since the 12z run of September 15th. If it were to form, would be about 10-12 days of lead time which is excellent. The Euro had this earlier than the GFS (back to 0Z 9/13 run) and it had a TS SE of the DR on the 0Z 9/14 run, which you can see here at 240 hours (with Fiona well to the north). It is the same wave: Aside: the ICON and JMA also sniffed it out before the GFS on 9/14. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 Yikes. Poor Tyndall if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 It appears that once Fiona pushes out, this system would have a nice outflow jet on the eastern side when it's south of Cuba and starts strengthening like mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 6z GFS says Farewell and Adieu to Tampa/St Pete area. Not far off from worst case track and surge scenario, albeit less intense. We’ll see lots of these super bad simulations jumping around the map over the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 7 minutes ago, TPAwx said: 6z GFS says Farewell and Adieu to Tampa/St Pete area. Not far off from worst case track and surge scenario, albeit less intense. We’ll see lots of these super bad simulations jumping around the map over the coming days. As someone who has taught probabilities, there is no such thing as 'being due' for a storm or anything else. But Tampa, well, its due.. At this point, NOLA to hit Cuba and then OTS is possible. If it even forms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 JB SAYS IT!!! Hazel or Sandy after Gaston By the way, this is not Gaston, This is after Gaston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 18 hours ago, GaWx said: The UKMET (12Z) has this as a TC per the textual output for the second time* as it was also on the 12Z 9/14 run: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 13.6N 76.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 25.09.2022 144 13.6N 76.4W 1006 26 *Corrected to say this is the 2nd UKMET run with it rather than the first run Regarding the AEW E of the Windwards, the 0Z UKMET is the 3rd run overall and 2nd run in a row with TC genesis. This has it occur 30 hours earlier than the prior run: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.8N 71.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 24.09.2022 108 13.6N 72.9W 1007 28 0000UTC 25.09.2022 120 13.7N 75.0W 1005 26 1200UTC 25.09.2022 132 13.3N 77.4W 1004 28 0000UTC 26.09.2022 144 13.8N 79.7W 1002 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 97L looks very close to becoming our next NS. Obviously no threat to land. Our well-advertised wave continues to have consensus support for development. Welcome to the party, 2022 Hurricane season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 97L looks very close to becoming our next NS. Obviously no threat to land. Our well-advertised wave continues to have consensus support for development. Welcome to the party, 2022 Hurricane season Yep, we’re in business now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 8 AM TWO up to 10%/50% within 2/5 days now from 10%/40% on the 2 AM for the wave a few hundred miles east of the Windwards while 97L is up to 80%/80%. 2. Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms while moving westward at 15-20 mph. Gradual development of this system is forecast during the next several days as the system approaches the Windward Islands, and a tropical depression could form by the latter part of this week as the system moves into the eastern and central Caribbean sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 GFS even developing an “I” storm in the western Caribbean after the “H” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 The ACE for Sept to date is now up to 35.5, which isn't far from the average 1991-2020 MTD of low 40s. The 30 year average for the full September is 56. Looking at the model consensus, there's a very good shot at exceeding that. What a turnaround from the August shutout! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 20, 2022 Share Posted September 20, 2022 1 minute ago, GaWx said: The ACE for Sept to date is now up to 35.5, which isn't far from the average 1991-2020 MTD of low 40s. The 30 year average for the full September is 56. Looking at the model consensus, there's a very good shot at exceeding that. What a turnaround from the August shutout! This is why you never give up in regards to the tropics in August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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