2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[MattPetrulli]

Also think real US threat would be homegrown development. As mentioned earlier GFS has been hinting at some development week of the 26th. Wouldn't usually point it out, but climo supports it. Also has a handful of supporting EPS members as well as a few GEFS members.  Worth a watch. 

[GaWx]

On 9/16/2022 at 4:16 PM, GaWx said:

 Today this looks less impressive as of DMIN although it is starting to refire convection near 11N, 30W. Still watching as quite a few ensemble members still keep this intact near the Caribbean.

 This AEW is now near 42W (very weak low probably ~11N) continuing westbound and has been pretty inactive the last 2 days as dry, stable air has been interacting with it. There's only scattered convection with it now. The 12Z Euro does have this as a weak low in the W Caribbean 9/26, which then moves NW to the Gulf of Honduras on 9/28. By then, the W Caribbean season is already starting to get into full swing climowise. So, something to keep an eye on.

 Edit: A good number of 12Z EPS members active with this in W Caribbean 9/26-8.

[MattPetrulli]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 This AEW is now near 42W (very weak low probably ~11N) continuing westbound and has been pretty inactive the last 2 days as dry, stable air has been interacting with it. There's only scattered convection with it now. The 12Z Euro does have this as a weak low in the W Caribbean 9/26, which then moves NW to the Gulf of Honduras on 9/28. By then, the W Caribbean season is already starting to get into full swing climowise. So, something to keep an eye on.

 Edit: A good number of 12Z EPS members active with this in W Caribbean 9/26-8.

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, MattPetrulli said:

 

 There are a significant number (nearly 25%) of 12Z EPS members landfalling on the CONUS 9/29-10/2 as hurricanes or as a strong TS from TX through NC with also a couple of still offshore threats. At least half of these hit the FL Gulf coast, which is my #1 risk area this season based on third year cold ENSO analogs. Being that this was a more active EPS run than prior ones, I wouldn't be surprised if most of the next ones over the next few days aren't as active. Regardless, this will more than likely be the next potential threat period on the CONUS.

[StruThiO]

You know how they say it only takes one for a memorable / destructive season?

 

Looks like we found our one. Fiona is a retirement guarantee

[StruThiO]

On 9/9/2022 at 5:04 AM, NorthHillsWx said:

Guidance has, um, apparently forgotten it’s hurricane season. Takeaways:

1. EC trough will continue to offer protection from anything that forms from the east

2. No MDR season this year. Rinse. Wash. Repeat. Wave breaking continues and it seems guidance has picked up on the hostile conditions. 
 

3. TUTT will continue to hinder development from eastern Caribbean through the middle of the basin 

4. Some hints at a more active western Caribbean though few members are showing actual development. I’m really thinking our only threats this year will originate here. 
 

Ensemble guidance 3 or 4 days ago, especially EPS, really looked like the proverbial switch had flipped as most members developed 95L, the current lemon, and the following wave. No more. We’re back to the doldrums in peak season. I have officially declared MDR dead. Thinking our season shifts with climo to western Caribbean and GOM but will be slow for next 10 days. We’ve probably surpassed 2013 bc of Earl, but at this point it may be a stretch to get double digit NS numbers. Never count out late September and October in the aforementioned areas though. It only takes one. I just don’t see it yet on any of the guidance this morning 

  

On 9/8/2022 at 6:10 AM, StantonParkHoya said:

This is analogous to the snow weenies annual "we can get good storms in March and April"....

 

  

On 9/12/2022 at 4:00 AM, A-L-E-K said:

what a bust of a season

do better, weenies.

[CheeselandSkies]

16 minutes ago, StruThiO said:

You know how they say it only takes one for a memorable / destructive season?

 

Looks like we found our one. Fiona is a retirement guarantee

 

10 minutes ago, StruThiO said:

  

 

  

do better, weenies.

It's a Cat. 1. It's not a secret that Cat. 1s, even T.S.'s (heck, even open waves) are capable of catastrophic freshwater flooding, usually due to some combination of meteorological and geographic/orographic factors as is the case here.

However, its existence does not "un-bust" pre/early-season forecasts of AA to hyperactive ACE totals and multiple long-tracking CV majors.

[StruThiO]

57 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

 

It's a Cat. 1. It's not a secret that Cat. 1s, even T.S.'s (heck, even open waves) are capable of catastrophic freshwater flooding, usually due to some combination of meteorological and geographic/orographic factors as is the case here.

However, its existence does not "un-bust" pre/early-season forecasts of AA to hyperactive ACE totals and multiple long-tracking CV majors.

No MDR season this year!

[WxWatcher007]

Both the GFS and Euro have western Caribbean activity late this week/early next week. 

[cptcatz]

GFS showing Matthew 2.0 except this time riding up inside the coast instead of off the coast. A MH eye riding up through Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties would have to be one of the costliest and most destructive paths a storm could take. 

[bigtenfan]

I am surprised that no one has mentioned what  the fantasy range of the 6z GFS is showing. If that were to verify that would be at least a $250b storm. A major probable cat 4 straddling the coast from Miami to the Outer Banks

 

 

 

[bigtenfan]

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

GFS showing Matthew 2.0 except this time riding up inside the coast instead of off the coast. A MH eye riding up through Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties would have to be one of the costliest and most destructive paths a storm could take. 

Beat me to it by a minute

[ldub23]

The  path, strength, and  even if  it will even exist will change with each model run. The euro does show  lowering  pressures in the west  carib

 

 

Most  likely  it will just head west  into central america.

[MJO812]

Eps showing a signal

[NorthHillsWx]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps showing a signal

Significant signal…

[Superstorm93]

Keep an eye on this wave in the CATL. Could really get interesting as the week goes on. 

 

[MattPetrulli]

17 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said:

Keep an eye on this wave in the CATL. Could really get interesting as the week goes on. 

 

Strong signal on GEFS, GFS, Euro, EPS. NHC will probably put out a lemon soon.

[Prismshine Productions]

That 6z GFS Cuba cane hit as a 150mph Cat 4

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[WxWatcher007]

I'm probably running behind on NS, but I still feel pretty good about my forecast, especially with half of my hurricane forecast verifying and Fiona likely to attain MH status (though that was also the case with Earl and to a lesser extent Danielle). Still think we see an active period late September into early October as we move into homebrew season. 

Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 10 (3)
Hurricanes: 6 (3)
Major Hurricanes: 4 (0)

[GaWx]

On 9/14/2022 at 3:45 AM, GaWx said:

 While we're concentrating on Invest 96L for good reason, folks should probably at least keep one eye on an AEW that's coming off Africa in ~12 hours. It has been quite active over W Africa. Several models (Euro, ICON, CMC) are now taking this at least to 50W in the MDR. The last 3 Euro runs haven taken it to at least the Lesser Antilles. The latest Euro takes this to just SW of PR as a TS moving WNW at 240 hours (9/24).

 I'm bumping this for the record since now nearly all models have this developing to some extent and the 6z GFS has this as a TC within 4 days as well as a MH in the W Car. The Euro had this as an active AEW per the above as far back as the 0Z 9/13 run, way ahead of the GFS. The 240 hour map of the 0Z 9/14 Euro run even had this as a TS SW of PR moving WNW on 9/24 (see image below). Actually, the ICON and CMC had this active though to a lesser extent by the 0Z 9/14 run. 

 So, if this turns out to be something significant in the Caribbean, the GFS will have in retrospect been way behind the Euro. (The just released 12Z GFS is similar to the 6Z GFS with a TC at the Windwards.)

 Here is the 0Z 9/14 Euro at 240:

[Superstorm93]

Outflow / PV streamer with Fiona will play a massive role with this wave. Little worried that the GFS is still too fast lifting Fiona out, which may result in quicker genesis than reality. 

 

 

[GaWx]

 The UKMET (12Z) has this as a TC per the textual output for the second time* as it was also on the 12Z 9/14 run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 13.6N  76.4W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 25.09.2022  144  13.6N  76.4W     1006            26

*Corrected to say this is the 2nd UKMET run with it rather than the first run

[Torch Tiger]

GFS absolutely bombs the Carib system.  

[WxWatcher007]

I know they have been burned, a lot, by waves this year, but the NHC should probably tag this one for tracking. It has a significant signal for TC genesis across guidance and the environment does look conducive for development once Fiona gets out of the way. 

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know they have been burned, a lot, by waves this year, but the NHC should probably tag this one for tracking. It has a significant signal for TC genesis across guidance and the environment does look conducive for development once Fiona gets out of the way. 

 This will very likely be lemoned and Invested soon.

 Meanwhile, the 12Z GEFS is quite active with this in the Caribbean and about as active as any run so far.

[Superstorm93]

Just for sh*ts and gigs really, but the parent domain of the HWRF for Fiona develops the wave as well. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

GFS would break a rule broken only twice before (1949, 1989)  in recorded history, a hurricane in Texas in October.  For that reason alone, and the time range, I suspect it doesn't happen.

[MANDA]

9 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

GFS would break a rule broken only twice before (1949, 1989)  in recorded history, a hurricane in Texas in October.  For that reason alone, and the time range, I suspect it doesn't happen.

Agreed.  Not ruling out the development just not buying into the Texas landfall.  One thing for sure is that if atmospheric conditions are favorable this potential system will be traversing some of the deepest and warmest water in the basin.  High end system certainly in play assuming the wave gets going in the first place.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I know they have been burned, a lot, by waves this year, but the NHC should probably tag this one for tracking. It has a significant signal for TC genesis across guidance and the environment does look conducive for development once Fiona gets out of the way. 

 

It made it to lemon status on the 2 PM NHC TWO:

A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while the system approaches the
Windward Islands toward the end of the week and moves over the
eastern Caribbean sea over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

 

Edit:  The 12Z Euro has the most impressive 850 vorticity for this AEW in many runs at 72 hours.

 The 12Z Euro at 120 hours is the most organized for this of any Euro run at that point since the 0Z 9/14 run.

 12Z Euro: TS at 168 moving NW in W Car. H at 192. Nearing MH SE GOM 216!

 

[WxWatcher007]

It's not the GFS, but the 12z Euro does have more development of that wave in just a few days time.