2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[GaWx]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

I’m lukewarm on that wave, but it has been more convectively active today. 

 Other than the precursor to Earl, I can't recall any other AEW with nearly this much convection since the precursor to Bonnie in late June. I think it is going to eventually lead to a TC though it may take many days to do so.

[Floydbuster]

Thanks for the link.

Yeah, things seem to light up on September 20-30th. Wouldn't it be ironic if the switch happened exactly one month after predicted?

[WxWatcher007]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Other than the precursor to Earl, I can't recall any other AEW with nearly this much convection since the precursor to Bonnie in late June. I think it is going to eventually lead to a TC though it may take many days to do so.

18z was the most aggressive yet fwiw

[GaWx]

32 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

18z was the most aggressive yet fwiw

 Yeah, I just saw that the 18Z Euro now has TCG. No recent Euro run had had this. That means just about all of the latest operational runs are developing this. Looking at the very impressive convection and the strong model support, and when considering analogs as well as near peak season climo in mid September, I'd now be quite surprised if this doesn't become a TC. Just looking at it, it is screaming genesis. It doesn't at all resemble the many dry AEWs of recent weeks. Who's to say that this won't be the most impactful storm of the season?

 Keep in mind that should this end up a big deal that the UKMET of 8 days ago was the first model to show TCG for this. 

[WxWatcher007]

I still need to see it make progress the next few days. There’s a nice moisture envelope but there’s a lot of dry air ahead and potential land interaction if it can’t get poleward a little. 

[cptcatz]

18z Euro and EPS getting interesting

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I still need to see it make progress the next few days. There’s a nice moisture envelope but there’s a lot of dry air ahead and potential land interaction if it can’t get poleward a little. 

 I recall past large moist AEWs embedded in lots of surrounding dry air seeming to do well. It is almost as if  there is a moat protecting the moisture from the nearby dryness. We're still 5-6 hours from DMAX, too.

 Edit: The 0Z UKMET dropped it again just as it did on yesterday's run. I'm talking about the textual output. However, the map does show a weak surface low over the Leewards at 72 hours fwiw.

[SnoSki14]

4 hours ago, cptcatz said:

18z Euro and EPS getting interesting

Ridge builds over the east coast so track wise it could head pretty far west. 

[ldub23]

It would probably be stronger if it didnt tangle with Hispanola

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022091300&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

 

 

 

Any other year and this would be a GO.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

The Canadian would make for an interesting thread.  I'd post the image, but somehow I can only post files under 10 kb.  LDub doesn't seem to have the same limit, how many hour 384 maps of CONUS to prove the tropics are dead.

[cptcatz]

Upgraded to code orange. 

P.s. for those that can't post files, you need to go into your settings, click attachments, and delete your old ones. You have a storage limit and have run out of space. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Upgraded to code orange. 

P.s. for those that can't post files, you need to go into your settings, click attachments, and delete your old ones. You have a storage limit and have run out of space. 

Finally something to track

[NorthHillsWx]

Finally- something interesting. @GaWxyou have been all over this one. Thanks for the discussion during the doldrums. 

[ldub23]

13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Finally- something interesting. @GaWxyou have been all over this one. Thanks for the discussion during the doldrums. 

Maybe, it  has deteriorated alot  on satellite  and the  06Euro says  i was just  teasing you. On the  other  hand  the  06 GFS pops a  major  hurricane  literally  out  of thin air  and  hits  the  central GOM coast. Probably  nothing will happen.

[WxWatcher007]

We now have Invest 96L. All you for the thread @GaWx.

Also I hate to admit it, but I’m not on board yet with this one. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Maybe, it  has deteriorated alot  on satellite  and the  06Euro says  i was just  teasing you. On the  other  hand  the  06 GFS pops a  major  hurricane  literally  out  of thin air  and  hits  the  central GOM coast. Probably  nothing will happen.

Probably nothing will happen, but you post hour 384 CONUS GFS maps to prove the tropics are dead.

[Modfan2]

ECMWF suite appears to support recurve north; something to watch for the East Coast? Maybe discounting strength of ridge and allowing for a turn north.

[GaWx]

8 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

ECMWF suite appears to support recurve north; something to watch for the East Coast? Maybe discounting strength of ridge and allowing for a turn north.

 Thanks. Something to keep in mind. For those who haven't seen it, there's a new thread for this now that it has been designated as Invest 96L:

 

[GaWx]

 While we're concentrating on Invest 96L for good reason, folks should probably at least keep one eye on an AEW that's coming off Africa in ~12 hours. It has been quite active over W Africa. Several models (Euro, ICON, CMC) are now taking this at least to 50W in the MDR. The last 3 Euro runs haven taken it to at least the Lesser Antilles. The latest Euro takes this to just SW of PR as a TS moving WNW at 240 hours (9/24).

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

96L is the last legitimate shot at a Texas (Canadian, anyway) hurricane.  The season ends at the Equinox.  Near perfect rule but a badly sheared 65 knot Jerry in 1989 and a solid Cat 2 that was an EPac TC that crossed into the BoC and hit Freeport at a solid Cat 2 in 1949 shows once every 50 or 70 years, Texas will get an October hurricane.

 

I was at the Cotton Bowl the weekend of Jerry, Texas broke a long losing streak to Oklahoma and won 4 straight years w/ QB Peter Gardere, the only UT QB to beat OU 4 times.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

96L is the last legitimate shot at a Texas (Canadian, anyway) hurricane.  The season ends at the Equinox.  Near perfect rule but a badly sheared 65 knot Jerry in 1989 and a solid Cat 2 that was an EPac TC that crossed into the BoC and hit Freeport at a solid Cat 2 in 1949 shows once every 50 or 70 years, Texas will get an October hurricane.

 

I was at the Cotton Bowl the weekend of Jerry, Texas broke a long losing streak to Oklahoma and won 4 straight years w/ QB Peter Gardere, the only UT QB to beat OU 4 times.

[GaWx]

15 hours ago, GaWx said:

 While we're concentrating on Invest 96L for good reason, folks should probably at least keep one eye on an AEW that's coming off Africa in ~12 hours. It has been quite active over W Africa. Several models (Euro, ICON, CMC) are now taking this at least to 50W in the MDR. The last 3 Euro runs haven taken it to at least the Lesser Antilles. The latest Euro takes this to just SW of PR as a TS moving WNW at 240 hours (9/24).

Followup:

- The 12Z ICON makes this a H near 14N, 50W, and then takes it NW.

- The 12Z JMA takes this westward to just E of LAs as a very weak low moving WNW at 192 hours.

- The 12Z Euro is the 4th in a row that has a persistent surface low from the AEW just now leaving Africa. The prior three all hit the Lesser Antilles. This run has it just E of the LAs as of 168 moving W (Sept 21st) after which it moves W well into the Caribbean as a very weak low:

Update for 12Z EPS: Those members at 240 which are located from NE of PR to the LAs to the MHs NE of the Leewards as well as those members S of PR and Hisp. in the Caribbean are from this AEW that's now just off Africa rather than from 96L. Some of those Caribbean members then go into the Gulf.

 Update: The 12Z UKMET has this:

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 12.9N  48.2W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 20.09.2022  144  13.2N  49.2W     1009            30

[GaWx]

It appears per satellite loops that there is a circulation at 11N, 23W, moving west. Anyone else see this?

[Prismshine Productions]

It appears per satellite loops that there is a circulation at 11N, 23W, moving west. Anyone else see this?

Yeah, I just hopped onto TT to take a look, if it fights off the dry air to the north it is really going to have legs... Convection really blew up over the last 5 hours

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[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Euro weeklies suggest WCar and GOMEX never really get active, although Oct 17-24 might have something based on rainfall anomalies.  12Z GEFS at 15 days is more interested in the EPac than the Caribbean or GOMEX, or the 2022 El Nino year despite Nino regions being near -1°C appears to last into the normal October WCar/Eastern Gulf season.

[shaggy]

18z gfs is very active long term

[GaWx]

 

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

It appears per satellite loops that there is a circulation at 11N, 23W, moving west. Anyone else see this?

  This only waned a little after I last posted about this near midday. Now, check it out as we start to head toward DMAX, which is still 5-6 hours away in the E MDR. Convection has again blossomed in a circular pattern and is centered on 11N, 24W.  It looks even more impressive than it looked early today. This has the makings of a sleeper as the NHC doesn't mention this in the TWO.

[GaWx]

19 hours ago, GaWx said:

 

  This only waned a little after I last posted about this near midday. Now, check it out as we start to head toward DMAX, which is still 5-6 hours away in the E MDR. Convection has again blossomed in a circular pattern and is centered on 11N, 24W.  It looks even more impressive than it looked early today. This has the makings of a sleeper as the NHC doesn't mention this in the TWO.

 Today this looks less impressive as of DMIN although it is starting to refire convection near 11N, 30W. Still watching as quite a few ensemble members still keep this intact near the Caribbean.

[ldub23]

Here  is a  possible  1 storm season storm. Possibly another GFS phantom but  its worth seeing  if any other  model will show  this.

 

[cptcatz]

31 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Here  is a  possible  1 storm season storm. Possibly another GFS phantom but  its worth seeing  if any other  model will show  this.

 

Yeah this Wilma/Matthew/Michael/Sandy track is what we're all looking to at the turn of the month.  CV season was a flop, bring on the western Caribbean season!