ldub23 Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 All arguments aside, the JB-o-Meter is sitting at zero. As far as tropical storms i would 1 million times want a tropical storm to hit here than seeing 20 greenland/azores hurricanes doing nothing. Im old enough to remember tropical storm Doria back in 1971. Practically went right over my house. It was awesome seeing the outer cirrus following by a lowering cloud deck with 2 outer bands bring heavy squalls followed by 40-60 mph winds with a few gusts over 70. **Does anyone think we will ever again see a well developed hurricane sitting at 14n 55w moving wnw with no sign of an east coast trof? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 Just now, GaWx said: We could use a separate banter/let off steam/why it has been inactive tropical thread imho. The DT and JB Sideways Remembrance Thread... 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, ldub23 said: All arguments aside, the JB-o-Meter is sitting at zero. As far as tropical storms i would 1 million times want a tropical storm to hit here than seeing 20 greenland/azores hurricanes doing nothing. Im old enough to remember tropical storm Doria back in 1971.1671 **Does anyone think we will ever again see a well developed hurricane sitting at 14n 55w moving wnw with no sign of an east coast trof? hey you recalled the wrong year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 15 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: lol it should be more like "Cat 5 mid atlantic hurricane" on the right and "60mph tropical storm landfalling on the east coast" on the left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 1 minute ago, cptcatz said: lol it should be more like "Cat 5 mid atlantic hurricane" on the right and "60mph tropical storm landfalling on the east coast" on the left. If you want perfection, well that is going to cost you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 New tropical whining and banter thread: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 And the 12z Euro just went completely poof on the current lemon. It's still developing the wave behind that one but I'm sure it'll go poof on that one too in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 5 hours ago, cptcatz said: And the 12z Euro just went completely poof on the current lemon. It's still developing the wave behind that one but I'm sure it'll go poof on that one too in a few days. It develops the wave behind it a bit but its much much much much weaker than last night. It will be dropped tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 From the way some people were talking in here a few days ago you'd think we were having an above normal hurricane season right now. But with Earl under performing immensely and nothing on the models into the heart of the season with more hostile conditions I really don't think things are going to change. People were acting like having Earl and Danielle meant that this inactive season was over, but that's not the case. I'm sure we'll get a few more storms but even Earl and Danielle couldn't max out what they were forecast to do strength wise. Once Earl is gone things are going to be dead yet again for a while 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 While it’s a known bias for the Euro to overdevelop AEWs, it’s actually incredible to see the operational and ensembles consistently spin up what are effectively fantasy storms in the MDR. The only one it’s done a reasonably good job with is Earl, and even then the operational was too aggressive. We don’t even need to go into the seasonal forecast, which is objectively an all-time fail. The GFS hasn’t been much better, with a truly awful consistently wrong forecast in the western Caribbean (another known bias) and overdevelopment at times too. Part of it is the tropical Atlantic being overwhelmingly hostile, but even short term forecasts have been way off, Earl and Danielle being two examples. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Guidance has, um, apparently forgotten it’s hurricane season. Takeaways: 1. EC trough will continue to offer protection from anything that forms from the east 2. No MDR season this year. Rinse. Wash. Repeat. Wave breaking continues and it seems guidance has picked up on the hostile conditions. 3. TUTT will continue to hinder development from eastern Caribbean through the middle of the basin 4. Some hints at a more active western Caribbean though few members are showing actual development. I’m really thinking our only threats this year will originate here. Ensemble guidance 3 or 4 days ago, especially EPS, really looked like the proverbial switch had flipped as most members developed 95L, the current lemon, and the following wave. No more. We’re back to the doldrums in peak season. I have officially declared MDR dead. Thinking our season shifts with climo to western Caribbean and GOM but will be slow for next 10 days. We’ve probably surpassed 2013 bc of Earl, but at this point it may be a stretch to get double digit NS numbers. Never count out late September and October in the aforementioned areas though. It only takes one. I just don’t see it yet on any of the guidance this morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 9 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: Guidance has, um, apparently forgotten it’s hurricane season. Takeaways: 1. EC trough will continue to offer protection from anything that forms from the east 2. No MDR season this year. Rinse. Wash. Repeat. Wave breaking continues and it seems guidance has picked up on the hostile conditions. 3. TUTT will continue to hinder development from eastern Caribbean through the middle of the basin 4. Some hints at a more active western Caribbean though few members are showing actual development. I’m really thinking our only threats this year will originate here. Ensemble guidance 3 or 4 days ago, especially EPS, really looked like the proverbial switch had flipped as most members developed 95L, the current lemon, and the following wave. No more. We’re back to the doldrums in peak season. I have officially declared MDR dead. Thinking our season shifts with climo to western Caribbean and GOM but will be slow for next 10 days. We’ve probably surpassed 2013 bc of Earl, but at this point it may be a stretch to get double digit NS numbers. Never count out late September and October in the aforementioned areas though. It only takes one. I just don’t see it yet on any of the guidance this morning I'm counting on the W Caribbean for at least an active October although Euro weeklies are tepid, at best. GFS ensembles will continue to develop spurious lows in the SW Caribbean, I doubt anything happens in the next two weeks. There are a couple of brief periods shear isn't completely hostile in the Gulf, but they are brief interludes in long stretches that suggest nothing survives in the Gulf through the 19th. Which then brings the Texas Equinox End of Season rule, although in about 150 years of records, 1989 was a minor exception and 1949 was a solid Cat 2 exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Interesting thread/discussion. Of note, the entire Northern Hemisphere is only 55% of normal ACE for year date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 I'd sign up for a "quiet" 1991. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 The latest TWO, regarding the AEW in the E Atlantic, brought down TC chances to 20% from 30%. I think all here would agree that makes sense based on weaker model consensus and 20% even seems too high to me now. Even 10% would be looking generous for 5 day chances. The UKMET, which was the first model to develop this (12Z run of Sunday 9/4) and had all but one run do the same since has dropped it again in today's 0Z and 12Z runs. The non-ICON models/ensembles have hardly anything now. The dry and stable MDR has apparently claimed another victim. The latest SAL outbreaks are dominating much of the MDR! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Although ACE has been impressive for Sep 1-9 near 25-6 vs the 30 year avg near 18, it looks to drop off to near zero 9/11-15 and thus ~29-30 looks to be the max ACE for 9/1-15, barely under the normal of 33. So, what had been looking to me like an excellent shot at 40+ won't happen. Fail for my 40+ prediction for 9/1-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 Watch the western Carribean be active in October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted September 9, 2022 Share Posted September 9, 2022 9 hours ago, Windspeed said: Interesting thread/discussion. Of note, the entire Northern Hemisphere is only 55% of normal ACE for year date. I think we can't use typical volcanic eruptions for comparisons because Tonga did not eject much ash into the stratosphere. It mainly ejected water vapor at an unprecedented level that we've never seen before. Water vapor would have different effects globally than ash etc. I'm just glad more people are starting to look at this type of data, it's better than nothing. Volcanic eruptions have been known to displace the ITCZ in the northern hemisphere before but like I said that was with ash filled eruptions and not water vapor. We really don't have many analogs for Tonga's type of eruption 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 There are signs already on the gfs of a possible homegrown storm in the long range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Thankful for a quiet season. We needed a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Nothing of interest really anywhere on the 00z GFS and 00z EURO runs tonight... besides maybe some crappy TS system late in the GFS run (i.e. Day 12+) that shows up in the E GOM and heads into the W ATL out to sea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 5 hours ago, yoda said: Nothing of interest really anywhere on the 00z GFS and 00z EURO runs tonight... besides maybe some crappy TS system late in the GFS run (i.e. Day 12+) that shows up in the E GOM and heads into the W ATL out to sea All the models are starting to show that Homebrew season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 46 minutes ago, MJO812 said: All the models are starting to show that Homebrew season Yes... but that usually means a mess of a system or just tropical storm stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Yes... but that usually means a mess of a system or just tropical storm stuff Umm late season homebrew has produced some monster storms including the lowest pressure ever recorded in the basin (Wilma) and one of only four cat5 landfalls on the CONUS (Michael). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 29 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Umm late season homebrew has produced some monster storms including the lowest pressure ever recorded in the basin (Wilma) and one of only four cat5 landfalls on the CONUS (Michael). Those types of storms, thankfully, are rare though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 There a brief window of semi-favorable upper forcing next week versus the current blunt trauma across the MDR if the AEW can hold together. We'll see if it can hold together on approach to the Lesser Antilles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Early end to the season still on the table. Euro shows 2 storms forming in the East Pac. This "burst" of activity wasnt much. A storm that had to form from a non tropical low near greenland and another one that had to escape the tropics. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2022091012/slp8.png The east coast trof hasnt budged all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 10, 2022 Share Posted September 10, 2022 Blunt trauma is a good way to put it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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