GaWx Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 The 12Z UKMET is the 5th run in a row to have a TC from what has become the newest E MDR lemon. The Sun 9/4 12Z run UKMET was the first major op model to have this as an actual TC and was soon followed up by others. Will the UKMET end up with kudos? Or will it fail (phantom)? We'll see later: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 10.5N 30.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 10.09.2022 96 10.9N 31.7W 1010 26 0000UTC 11.09.2022 108 11.8N 35.2W 1010 28 1200UTC 11.09.2022 120 12.4N 38.2W 1009 30 0000UTC 12.09.2022 132 14.1N 40.8W 1007 35 1200UTC 12.09.2022 144 15.5N 43.8W 1006 36 --------------------------------------------------------------- For comparison, here was that first UKMET run picking it up, the Sun 9/4 12Z run: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 9.8N 26.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 09.09.2022 120 9.8N 26.4W 1009 26 0000UTC 10.09.2022 132 10.6N 30.4W 1009 29 1200UTC 10.09.2022 144 11.4N 34.2W 1008 33 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 2 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: Meh. The usual disclaimer about never wishing death and destruction on people, yadda yadda... However, I'd be lying if I didn't say that guaranteed fish lose of some of their interest for me, even satellite-photogenic high-ACE ones like Sam from last year. It's the days of nail-biting as the models windshield-wiper from New York to Corpus Christi and back, the hype on the Weather Channel, Morgerman nerding out on social media and agonizing about where he's gonna go, etc. We need a major threat to land to really dig into the good ol' morality debate again. Hopefully we get a chance this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 Euro goes from the least aggressive model to the most. The 12z run develops the next three waves coming off Africa, including our current orange. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 I'm a homeowner in Palm Beach County, Florida and I am rooting for a solid cat 1 strike in my area. I'd take anything that doesn't cause financial damage to my house (or my collection of fruit trees in my backyard). But a good 70-80 mph storm causing some power outages I'd take (my in-laws live down the street with a whole-house generator so not worried about power outages). Of course if a Dorian-style major hurricane does strike my area and kill my fruit trees and cause damage to my house, I would be pissed but I wouldn't regret my wishcasting for a storm since that wishcasting had zero impact on the MH strike. So yeah, I'll be the first to say I hope for some good landfalling hurricanes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 Regarding the newest lemon for the AEW modeled to emerge from Africa 9/7-8, at 240 hours the 12Z GFS/CMC have only a very weak surface reflection whereas the 12Z Euro has an organized though weak low moving westward. They are all in the general vicinity of the Leeward Islands suggesting that this may have to be dealt with somewhere in the western basin in ~10-15 days. Edit: The 12Z EPS is very active with this. What's worrisome is that a good number of members after moving WNW change headings to W near 45W (similar to the operational) ~9/13 and then head W with the accompanying steering high to the north from there through 9/16 to 55-60W in a potentially dangerous position. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 6, 2022 Share Posted September 6, 2022 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Regarding the newest lemon for the AEW modeled to emerge from Africa 9/7-8, at 240 hours the 12Z GFS/CMC have only a very weak surface reflection whereas the 12Z Euro has an organized though weak low moving westward. They are all in the general vicinity of the Leeward Islands suggesting that this may have to be dealt with somewhere in the western basin in ~10-15 days. Edit: The 12Z EPS is very active with this. What's worrisome is that a good number of members after moving WNW change headings to W near 45W (similar to the operational) ~9/13 and then head W with the accompanying steering high to the north from there through 9/16 to 55-60W in a potentially dangerous position. Not sure if it matters much at this point but it looks like almost all of the members end up curving out to sea. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 5 hours ago, cptcatz said: I'm a homeowner in Palm Beach County, Florida and I am rooting for a solid cat 1 strike in my area. I'd take anything that doesn't cause financial damage to my house (or my collection of fruit trees in my backyard). But a good 70-80 mph storm causing some power outages I'd take (my in-laws live down the street with a whole-house generator so not worried about power outages). Of course if a Dorian-style major hurricane does strike my area and kill my fruit trees and cause damage to my house, I would be pissed but I wouldn't regret my wishcasting for a storm since that wishcasting had zero impact on the MH strike. So yeah, I'll be the first to say I hope for some good landfalling hurricanes. That's strange. Its one thing to like the chase, its another to want landfall and damage for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 The 2010 parade of Central Atlantic fish storms has returned. Any chance for a landfall will be over Bermuda, or northeastern lesser Antilles. It's also possible something phases and hits Europe or NF. 2 hours ago, cptcatz said: Not sure if it matters much at this point but it looks like almost all of the members end up curving out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 Down goes 2013 as we have tied its hurricane total today, the 6th of September. Not that it was ever a real analogue in the first place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 8 hours ago, Hoosier said: We need a major threat to land to really dig into the good ol' morality debate again. Hopefully we get a chance this year. I'm honestly glad we're not getting hits right now. We're already going through major economic turmoil, the last thing we need is a major hurricane threat. Still way too early to say it'll last though. Gotta watch the Caribbean/Gulf late September into October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 1 hour ago, floridapirate said: That's strange. Its one thing to like the chase, its another to want landfall and damage for the area I didn't say I wanted damage, actually I specifically said I didn't want damage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 I'm still most interested in the wave leaving Africa right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 24 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I'm still most interested in the wave leaving Africa right now. Unlike the 12Z ICON, which appeared to be setting up for a recurve way out there based on a big upper low off the CONUS, the 0Z ICON has a very different H5 setup to its NW late in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, GaWx said: Unlike the 12Z ICON, which appeared ready to recurve way out there, the 0Z ICON has a very different H5 setup to its NW late in the run. If we get Earl, then Fiona, Gaston and Hermine all off Africa...one of them is gonna break through west eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 The 0Z UKMET is the 6th in a row with genesis although it develops quite a bit later than the other runs: phantom alert or just delayed development, who knows? NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.7N 43.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.09.2022 132 15.7N 43.0W 1011 25 0000UTC 13.09.2022 144 17.7N 45.7W 1011 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 Still nothing trackable. Of course the forecasted ridging never occured. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 12 hours ago, GaWx said: The 0Z UKMET is the 6th in a row with genesis although it develops quite a bit later than the other runs: phantom alert or just delayed development, who knows? NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.7N 43.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.09.2022 132 15.7N 43.0W 1011 25 0000UTC 13.09.2022 144 17.7N 45.7W 1011 29 For the first time in seven runs, the 12Z UKMET doesn't make this a TC! Keep in mind that the UKMET was the first model to develop this into a TD. Is it now saying "psyche"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 12z GFS has zero tropical cyclogenesis and CMC dropped this leading wave as well along with the 00z Euro. This season is getting pretty laughable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 16 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 12z GFS has zero tropical cyclogenesis and CMC dropped this leading wave as well along with the 00z Euro. This season is getting pretty laughable. Ldub in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1... 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 12 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 12z GFS has zero tropical cyclogenesis and CMC dropped this leading wave as well along with the 00z Euro. This season is getting pretty laughable. About as dead as it can get. Dani had to get to greenland to form, early is still on the struggle bus until it can get away from the tropics, the one behind it looks like a dried up prune.. Looks like a zero storm season. Still hoping for a 1 storm season but thats quickly fading. Other than a 6hr Bonnie there has been no tropical development whatsoever this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, ldub23 said: About as dead as it can get. Dani had to get to greenland to form, early is still on the struggle bus until it can get away from the tropics, the one behind it looks like a dried up prune.. Looks like a zero storm season. Still hoping for a 1 storm season but thats quickly fading. Other than a 6hr Bonnie there has been no tropical development whatsoever this season. Yeah September is looking pretty dead but you still can't rule out one or two October western Caribbean monsters ala Michael/Wilma/Matthew/Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 28 minutes ago, cptcatz said: Yeah September is looking pretty dead but you still can't rule out one or two October western Caribbean monsters ala Michael/Wilma/Matthew/Sandy. We can definitely rule out wilma and 2005. This borefest is nothing like that. The other seasons gave some indications that something like that could happen. Strong hurricanes hitting SO CAL tells me a carribean monster isnt likely this season. May as well hope for something though, its all we got. There will be no "homebrew" with that massive trof off the coast. And yes, bebops mean nothing to me. With the east pac in el nino mode again i doubt the western basin will be terribly active. Thats a cat5 trof in the western ATL for early Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 6 hours ago, ldub23 said: Still nothing trackable. Of course the forecasted ridging never occured. You are a bigger weenie than I am 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 You are a bigger weenie than I amShows satellite with two active hurricanes…I guess he doesn’t realize he doesn’t reside at the center of the universe. I’ll take all the waves earl will be sending to the east coast this weekend with a giant smile . 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 48 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Shows satellite with two active hurricanes… I guess he doesn’t realize he doesn’t reside at the center of the universe. I’ll take all the waves earl will be sending to the east coast this weekend with a giant smile . Great surf in NC outer banks already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 Two hurricanes in the basin, one of which is forecasted to become a cat 4, and it’s dead. Can’t make it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 5 hours ago, GaWx said: For the first time in seven runs, the 12Z UKMET doesn't make this a TC! Keep in mind that the UKMET was the first model to develop this into a TD. Is it now saying "psyche"? The 12Z EPS has ~30% of the members become a H. A handful of them threaten the Leewards to Bermuda corridor 9/19-22. Another two of them hit near the NC/SC border 9/20-22. All fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Two hurricanes in the basin, one of which is forecasted to become a cat 4, and it’s dead. Can’t make it up. Sept has had ~17-18 of ACE for the first 7 days. That compares to ~15 1991-2020 normal. Pretty impressive turnaround from the total shutout of August. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 30 minutes ago, GaWx said: Sept has had ~17-18 of ACE for the first 7 days. That compares to ~15 1991-2020 normal. Pretty impressive turnaround from the total shutout of August. I'm expecting Western Caribbean activity in October. These youngsters are too spoiled. Some years have October storms like Keith or Lili. These spoiled hurricane trackers are used to Greek crap like Hurricane Zylor by September 25th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 Idub has been trolling about hurricanes on this forum for like 5 years now. Stop giving him attention and his trolling will stop. Everyone here has been trying to get through to him for a while so nothing is going to change. I commend the consistent and persistent trolling, however. Anyways Euro on 12z wants a piece of Earl to break off and form a new tropical cyclone around Bermuda this weekend. Supported by a number of EPS ensembles too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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