bigtenfan Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Long range goofus That would be a beast if it verifies( very unlikely). It would spend something like 60 hours near or on the FL west coast. The rainfall would be measured in feet in addition to whatever surge and wind damage there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 GFS does it again with the 12Z run. Pure fantasy at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 23 minutes ago, AChilders said: GFS does it again with the 12Z run. Pure fantasy at this point. The extended portion of the GFS has gotten ridiculous with its numerous runs having hurricane threats over the last few weeks. It has for a number of years had a bias toward too strong activity in the Gulf and W Caribbean, especially during early and late season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 GFS had really been consistent showing a storm moving north out of the Caribbean this time next week. Talking about 7 days from now, it's not really long range fantasy. If this doesn't verify something really needs to be done with the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 The GFS was doing the same thing with Tropical Storm Alex. The time frame wasn't exact, and I think there was a pretty long delay between when the long-range runs showed it happening and when it actually happened, but the scenario ultimately played out. We'll see though. It's showing TC genesis in a week which is pretty far out. Once genesis comes into the 72 hour range it'll be more believable/serious. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 6 hours ago, turtlehurricane said: The GFS was doing the same thing with Tropical Storm Alex. The time frame wasn't exact, and I think there was a pretty long delay between when the long-range runs showed it happening and when it actually happened, but the scenario ultimately played out. We'll see though. It's showing TC genesis in a week which is pretty far out. Once genesis comes into the 72 hour range it'll be more believable/serious. I am not sure a storm forecast to affect the US the week before Memorial Day, when the Euro had Agatha and was fairly close on the vorticity E of it then developed. Few years back, now Dr. Papin (I think it was him) suggested the GFS had issues with latent heat transport, making it prone to spurious development near Central America. As long as a few (not many) Euro ensembles are showing it, it isn't impossible. Just doesn't seem likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted June 10, 2022 Share Posted June 10, 2022 Looks like the 12Z GFS backed way off of the potential Caribbean genesis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 On 6/6/2022 at 9:18 PM, yoda said: Gas prices sure could get interesting later in the summer…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted June 11, 2022 Share Posted June 11, 2022 They are already "interesting!" Better stock up on TOILET PAPER!! LOL Half-n-half is hard to find some days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 GFS has a major into the Yucatan in 6 days. So far this year, the GFS has been far too enthusiastic about things developing from the CAG, but I can follow the vorticity back to Venezuela, which is a bit off because my eye is drawn to the blob already past where the hour 12 vort should be... ETA- there is some analyzed vorticity where the blob is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 42 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: GFS has a major into the Yucatan in 6 days. So far this year, the GFS has been far too enthusiastic about things developing from the CAG, but I can follow the vorticity back to Venezuela, which is a bit off because my eye is drawn to the blob already past where the hour 12 vort should be... ETA- there is some analyzed vorticity where the blob is. Except further S, thus never getting very strong because of land, Euro might almost be on board with the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 Most Euro ensembles seem to agree with Op Euro too far S for significant development, but the GFS is not exactly on an island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 12, 2022 Share Posted June 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Most Euro ensembles seem to agree with Op Euro too far S for significant development, but the GFS is not exactly on an island. 18Z GFS quite similar to 12Z GFS. First GFS system I think has a chance... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 The 06Z GFS is on the sauce again… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted June 13, 2022 Share Posted June 13, 2022 GFS has been better than the ECMWF in terms of showing the area of concentrated deep convection N. of Panama (and the convection in the SW Caribbean in general). It is still likely too quick to show development and intensification, but something in between the GFS/GEFS and ECMWF/EPS is possible IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Tropical update for today 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 I think it will be a repeat of the dead 2021 season with a big east coast trof and very early end to the season. Maybe 1 storm will be memorable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted June 17, 2022 Share Posted June 17, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 On 6/17/2022 at 7:52 AM, ldub23 said: I think it will be a repeat of the dead 2021 season with a big east coast trof and very early end to the season. Maybe 1 storm will be memorable. So last year? How was that in any way a dead season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 On 6/17/2022 at 6:53 AM, jconsor said: 2 runs of the Euro op have had a very significant looking wave with 850 mb vorticity and nice PWAT entering the E Caribbean at the end of the run, Has some ECENS support. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted June 19, 2022 Share Posted June 19, 2022 8 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 2 runs of the Euro op have had a very significant looking wave with 850 mb vorticity and nice PWAT entering the E Caribbean at the end of the run, Has some ECENS support. I remember Claudette in July 2003. A long tracked hurricane that never did much until the end. It slammed into Port O'Connor, TX as a 90 mph nastycane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 Looks like some ECENS prefer one wave, others prefer the next one behind. There is vorticity (not a lot of storms) on a wave near the CV. I'm guessing that is the lead wave some of the ECENS like. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 This year is shaping up like the 2011 Season. La Nina with the US east coast dominated with blocking High pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 20, 2022 Author Share Posted June 20, 2022 Not much instability but plenty of "pond-like" sit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 15 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Looks like some ECENS prefer one wave, others prefer the next one behind. There is vorticity (not a lot of storms) on a wave near the CV. I'm guessing that is the lead wave some of the ECENS like. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=eatl&product=ir 0Z Euro still sees a system in the Caribbean, and various ECENS are still liking either the op system or one a few days behind. Nothing obvious on the GFS. Re: 2011- one of two unpleasant years retired met Larry Cosgrove is using for this season. 2011 was the year the dry side of sheared TS Lee downed powerlines around E Texas, one of which started the month long Bastrop wildfire, which destroyed almost 2000 homes in a fairly rural county. Fires that year in the hills just W of Austin, which may be developed now due to the rapid growth of the city, and all around Possum Kingdom Lake. Add a few storms, but follow the pattern, there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth in the various East Coast forums about all the 'fish'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 18 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: 0Z Euro still sees a system in the Caribbean, and various ECENS are still liking either the op system or one a few days behind. Nothing obvious on the GFS. Re: 2011- one of two unpleasant years retired met Larry Cosgrove is using for this season. 2011 was the year the dry side of sheared TS Lee downed powerlines around E Texas, one of which started the month long Bastrop wildfire, which destroyed almost 2000 homes in a fairly rural county. Fires that year in the hills just W of Austin, which may be developed now due to the rapid growth of the city, and all around Possum Kingdom Lake. Add a few storms, but follow the pattern, there will be wailing and gnashing of teeth in the various East Coast forums about all the 'fish'. 2011 was the second warmest summer in U.S. history. Deep south and Southern Plains states cooked that year under dome after dome of high pressure. DFW had 56 days of triple digits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 20, 2022 Share Posted June 20, 2022 Euro lost the Caribbean system, although an inverted trough that gets stuck under the STR and comes back across the Gulf with 2.4" PWATS day 10 would be sweet locally for the developing drought in Texas. Edit- the wave is still there, it just doesn't develop and is hitting Central America Day 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 20, 2022 Author Share Posted June 20, 2022 2011 is a pretty good Tropical analog.. we had record -PNA this December, and 2010 shattered that too, we followed that 2011, 2022 similarity through Jan,Feb. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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