2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Floydbuster]

25 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Which is the absolute peak of the season. Ensembles not showing much through the middle of the month. Once September ends, you’ve got autumn troughs picking up and less landfall threat.

Meh. Technically September 10th is the peak.

I tracked Hurricane Georges '98 which didn't form until September 15th. Hurricane Keith 2000 was a Cat 4 off Belize while we had two Cape Verde Hurricanes (Isaac and Joyce) on October 1st. Hurricane Iris 2001 was the first week of October.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Op GFS, strong wave or even a TD hits Florida from the SE mid-month.  That would be funny if the only September impact to the US is a TD just after season peak.  I'd load a picture but I'm 8.4 KB limited for AmWx, and that isn't enough for anything.

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

Meh. Technically September 10th is the peak.

I tracked Hurricane Georges '98 which didn't form until September 15th. Hurricane Keith 2000 was a Cat 4 off Belize while we had two Cape Verde Hurricanes (Isaac and Joyce) on October 1st. Hurricane Iris 2001 was the first week of October.

Ensemble guidance is pretty meh long range after 91L. Nothing, to me, looks to be changing to flip the Atlantic towards a more active look. The same features today largely remain in place 10 days from now. Yes we can get a strong hurricane this year but I do not see it in the next 2 weeks. 

[CheeselandSkies]

7 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Meh. Technically September 10th is the peak.

I tracked Hurricane Georges '98 which didn't form until September 15th. Hurricane Keith 2000 was a Cat 4 off Belize while we had two Cape Verde Hurricanes (Isaac and Joyce) on October 1st. Hurricane Iris 2001 was the first week of October.

Peak season isn't one day. That's like picking one day in May statistically as the "peak" of tornado season, but in any given year the biggest outbreak is just as likely to happen a few days, or 2-3 weeks before or after (or in mid-December, lol).

IMO peak hurricane season is August 20th through the end of September, with a watchful eye remaining on the Caribbean/Gulf through the end of October (Opal, Mitch, Wilma, Sandy, Michael).

Back-to-back years the most significant storms, Joaquin and Matthew formed on 9/28. Maria hit PR on 9/20.

I wasn't tracking the season closely in 2013 because I had a lot of stuff going on in A/S/O that year (move and new job) so it was more like at some point I went "Huh, haven't heard of any significant hurricanes going on in the Atlantic; I thought they predicted a busy season, guess they were wrong," but after this year I'm throwing in the towel on the utility of pre-season indicators/activity forecasts. Entertainment value only.

Not that there couldn't still be a major hurricane or two, perhaps a significant, destructive one, in later September or October (just like some of those I mentioned above), but those expert forecasts explicitly called for an active August and/or a dangerous setup for long-tracking MDR cyclones (the creme de la creme, the Ivans, Irmas, etc).

[StantonParkHoya]

I am actually glad/hopeful about a record slow tropical year. I think it will force us to take a look in the mirror and realize activity is not simply dictated by + ocean temps or climatic forces.

[Floydbuster]

Here's a video on the tropics, as well as the active Pacific.

https://youtu.be/5Yxx_FvKkOg

 

[NorthHillsWx]

I honestly cannot believe they named this. Looking at recon there’s barely a breath of wind around a very broad center. I’m going the opposite. I think this stays a middling cloud mass until it dissipates. First named swirl of the season. 

[Maxwell03]

5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I honestly cannot believe they named this. Looking at recon there’s barely a breath of wind around a very broad center. I’m going the opposite. I think this stays a middling cloud mass until it dissipates. First named swirl of the season. 

You must’ve glossed over Colin

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, Maxwell03 said:

You must’ve glossed over Colin

Exactly.  What a joke that was.

[yoda]

 

[TheDreamTraveler]

12 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Not that there couldn't still be a major hurricane or two, perhaps a significant, destructive one, in later September or October (just like some of those I mentioned above), but those expert forecasts explicitly called for an active August and/or a dangerous setup for long-tracking MDR cyclones (the creme de la creme, the Ivans, Irmas, etc).

The more hilarious thing is the ECMWF is STILL calling for an active season for the next month despite the current conditions happening. It's very weird. It's our best model and it forecast one of the most active atlantic hurricane seasons on record and despite the fact it's turned into one of the quietest in decades it still refuses to acknowledge that it hasn't been active. It's really weird honestly

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

The more hilarious thing is the ECMWF is STILL calling for an active season for the next month despite the current conditions happening. It's very weird. It's our best model and it forecast one of the most active atlantic hurricane seasons on record and despite the fact it's turned into one of the quietest in decades it still refuses to acknowledge that it hasn't been active. It's really weird honestly

Nothing  on the  horizon that would  make this a one storm season. Only  hurricane formed from a  non tropical low  next to Greenland.

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

The more hilarious thing is the ECMWF is STILL calling for an active season for the next month despite the current conditions happening. It's very weird. It's our best model and it forecast one of the most active atlantic hurricane seasons on record and despite the fact it's turned into one of the quietest in decades it still refuses to acknowledge that it hasn't been active. It's really weird honestly

Euro was awful early but keep in mind that climo shifts the favored development areas out of the MDR later in the peak period—late September into October. 

Could we continue to misfire through the rest of the season? Absolutely. But I think it’s a little early to pull the plug on the entire basin. Not saying you are. 

I have pulled the plug on the tropical Atlantic part of the MDR. I don’t care what it does at this point. 

My forecast called for activity in early September followed by a lull and more activity late September into October. More backloaded by necessity LOL. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Nothing  on the  horizon that would  make this a one storm season. Only  hurricane formed from a  non tropical low  next to Greenland.

Summer is a time of relative stasis.  NH sunshine is decreasing fairly quickly now, peak rate of change at the Equinox.  Euro weekly may be wrong,, but it is hinting at a storm in the Gulf.  Interesting for me, with two exceptions in 150 years (1989, half-a-cane Jerry and 1949, a Cat 2 hitting S of Houston (Freeport) that crossed Mexico into the BoC first week of October) in that there is still a chance for Texas.  But it makes sense a generally hostile pattern having breaks during the change of seasons.  Also a signal for the Eastern Gulf first week of October.  Gulf activity end of September and October almost by definition means a landfall, or this could still be a one big storm season.  I'm limited, for some reason, to 18k, which isn't enough to load any image.  But the 9/19 to 9/26 pressure anomaly absolutely suggests a Gulf storm.

[TheDreamTraveler]

So I was doing more research into the Tonga volcanic eruption and apparently it sent 10% of the entirety of the stratospheres water vapor directly into the stratosphere all at once. There was a recent study done that says this will impact the earth's climate patterns and will take 5 years to fully dissipate. I would not be at all surprised if what's happening in the atlantic is related to this, especially since literally nobody can fully figure out what's happening. We know there's anticyclonic wave breaking which is causing the warm temperatures northward which is limiting instability in the tropics but that's still not the full picture yet. Even some of the best meteorologists I know of are stumped on the full answer to what's happening but the Tonga volcano may actually be a key player. It's been 9 months now since it erupted and we've never seen anything like this put so much water vapor into the stratosphere

https://www.npr.org/2022/08/03/1115378385/tonga-volcano-stratosphere-water-warming

[ldub23]

Andy Hazelton not  very  impressed. Hilarious amount  of  shear. Later he  says the western basin is  less hostile but  can anything even survive to get there.

 

 

[cptcatz]

Maybe the most interesting thing that happens in the Atlantic this season will be Earl's impact on Europe...

[GaWx]

1. 1991-2020 ATL ACE daily climo peak period is 8/26-9/22. 

2. Daily climo peaks of 1.7+: peak of peak period is 9/6-16 (bolded) with 9/15 the peak day at 2.5

- 8/26: 1.8
- 8/27: 1.7
- 8/28-29: 1.9
- 8/30: 1.8
- 8/31: 2.3
- 9/1-2: 2.4
- 9/3-4: 2.0
- 9/5: 1.9
- 9/6: 2.1
- 9/7: 2.0
- 9/8: 2.3
- 9/9-10: 2.4
- 9/11-12: 2.1
- 9/13: 2.4
- 9/14: 2.3
- 9/15: 2.5 peak day
- 9/16: 2.3
- 9/17: 1.8
- 9/18: 1.7
- 9/19-20: 2.0
- 9/21: 1.7
- 9/22: 1.8

 3. 9/3-7/22 should each day end up near 2.0 (near climo)

Climo source:
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic

[Floydbuster]

You guys are being way too harsh. I honestly think we've been spoiled by more August activity than I was used to tracking when I was a kid/teen.

This time in 2001, we had crap. But we still ended up having Cat 4 Iris and Cat 4 Michelle. This time in 2002, we were still weeks away from Hurricane Isidore and Hurricane Lili. I really think September 15-October 15th will be crucial. If that time is dead, then we can put a fork in it.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

A private sector professional met (MS thesis on interaction of shear and low humidity on TCs) says he sees a sign in the modeling the switch is finally going to flip, but looking at 0Z GEFS, I don't see it.  Euro still has Earl wandering aimlessly in the Atlantic, and a new TC coming off Africa that is late in the season and a bit too far N to think it won't fish even if it forms.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

A private sector professional met (MS thesis on interaction of shear and low humidity on TCs) says he sees a sign in the modeling the switch is finally going to flip, but looking at 0Z GEFS, I don't see it.  Euro still has Earl wandering aimlessly in the Atlantic, and a new TC coming off Africa that is late in the season and a bit too far N to think it won't fish even if it forms.

 The switch has already flipped. From no TCs for 2 months to two at the same time. From no ACE for 2 months to near or above average ACE, which looks to likely continue at least into mid month. So, Derek can't be wrong from my perspective as he's already right.

[TheDreamTraveler]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The switch has already flipped. From no TCs for 2 months to two at the same time. From no ACE for 2 months to near or above average ACE, which looks to likely continue at least into mid month. So, Derek can't be wrong from my perspective as he's already right.

I really would not say a storm in the high latitudes and a storm struggling to form at all with nothing else in sight in the deep tropics is 'the switch has already flipped'. We're almost at peak season, you will always get at least a storm or two at this point regardless of overall conditions. The fact that everything is falling apart and struggling to develop in the tropics doesn't make me believe the switch flipped yet. Earl won't even find good conditions to get stronger until it's farther away from the tropics...

[cptcatz]

49 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

I really would not say a storm in the high latitudes and a storm struggling to form at all with nothing else in sight in the deep tropics is 'the switch has already flipped'. We're almost at peak season, you will always get at least a storm or two at this point regardless of overall conditions. The fact that everything is falling apart and struggling to develop in the tropics doesn't make me believe the switch flipped yet. Earl won't even find good conditions to get stronger until it's farther away from the tropics...

Agreed. A flip of the switch implies that bad conditions have switched to good conditions, even close to hyperactive conditions as the forecasts called for. We're not seeing that. We're seeing terrible tropical conditions in the very height of peak conditions which had produced two sloppy marginal storms. And looking at the models into mid September shows nothing changing as well. Of course mid September through October could be active but I don't see any switches flipped currently or in the next week or two on the models. 

[WxWatcher007]

I think it’s more like a dimmer. We’re slowly turning it up. Conditions have been terrible in the tropical Atlantic, you can’t sugarcoat that. It has gotten somewhat better, however.

Our first two September storms are likely to end up hurricanes. That’s not something that was possible at any point in August (especially early/mid month).

I think @Floydbuster is right to an extent. Some are a little harsh in essentially trying to cancel the season. There’s still plenty of activity that happens on the other side of September 10, and much of it tends to be high end activity. Plenty of time for activity and numbers to come up. Especially in the western part of the basin.

[ldub23]

3 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Agreed. A flip of the switch implies that bad conditions have switched to good conditions, even close to hyperactive conditions as the forecasts called for. We're not seeing that. We're seeing terrible tropical conditions in the very height of peak conditions which had produced two sloppy marginal storms. And looking at the models into mid September shows nothing changing as well. Of course mid September through October could be active but I don't see any switches flipped currently or in the next week or two on the models. 

Yea, a  hurricane that  had to head to Greenland to develop and another  one that limped across the  Atlantic and didnt  do anything till out  of  the tropics  isnt  much of a switch flip for  peak in a season that was supposed to be hyperactive.

[Great Snow 1717]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The switch has already flipped. From no TCs for 2 months to two at the same time. From no ACE for 2 months to near or above average ACE, which looks to likely continue at least into mid month. So, Derek can't be wrong from my perspective as he's already right.

The persistence has won out so far. I wouldn't base anything on any of the models. As with any persistent pattern it is best to wait until an actual change takes place and then watch to see  if the  change persists for at least a couple of weeks.

[Windspeed]

Idub thee a new Public Service Announcement. It will be known as the Idub PSA or IPSA. IPSA is a new non-profit organization to remind folks every day for the remainder of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season that a hyperactive season (ACE of 165+) will not occur in 2022. IPSA will be on repeat every day to remind you that though it was supposed to be hyperactive, the year is not hyperactive. Nor will it become hyperactive. So do not expect it to become hyperactive, even though it was supposed to. But you need to be reminded of this. You need it.

Absolutely not hyperactive.

IPSA. Every. Day.

[GaWx]

This is a new one on the 12Z UKMET fwiw, which is at a very low latitude moving WNW in the E MDR:

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 :  9.8N  26.4W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 09.09.2022  120   9.8N  26.4W     1009            26
    0000UTC 10.09.2022  132  10.6N  30.4W     1009            29
    1200UTC 10.09.2022  144  11.4N  34.2W     1008            33

 

 Also, just looking at Danielle and Earl, alone, per the NHC progs and extending further out, ACE for just about every day through Sept 12 is likely to be above normal at least through then meaning at or above normal ACE days through a good portion of peak season. And this doesn't include any other TC that may develop. If Earl becomes a major (now forecasted), it alone will generate 4+ per day for those days, which would be at a minimum 160% of the highest ACE average for any day for 1991-2020, which is 2.5 (Sept 15th).

 Per 1991-2020 averages, Sep 1-15 average ACE is 33. 2022 could easily end up 40+ for Sep 1-15. That would be quite an impressive turnaround. If Earl were to become a major on 9/8 and remain that way for several days, a 50+ ACE for Sep 1-15 would not just be a remote possibility, especially considering what else may be out there. I'm still at 120 ACE for this season and 6 NS this month.

[cptcatz]

Quite a look on the 12z EPS. Got Earl going all over the place... while unlikely, a loop back to the US is on the table. Then a red hot wave coming off Africa at the end of the run quickly turning into a MH.

[MJO812]