thunderbolt Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 Just now, Floydbuster said: Well, I will fall on my sword. I said we'd have a major hurricane by August 28th. We will not. That being said, I am kinda surprised why the GFS isn't more enthusiastic about Invest 91L. It’s GFS enough said 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 1 minute ago, thunderbolt said: It’s GFS enough said I see no reason why we've been so inactive. We have a La Nina, we have strong waves leaving Africa. The only possible thing I think could be the Saharan Air but that is a factor every season. Even 2005 had a huge amount of dust in the Summer during that hurricane season. I do recall seasons like 1998, 1999 and 2000, which have been seen as analogs to some this year, where the season really took off in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 1 minute ago, Floydbuster said: I see no reason why we've been so inactive. We have a La Nina, we have strong waves leaving Africa. The only possible thing I think could be the Saharan Air but that is a factor every season. Even 2005 had a huge amount of dust in the Summer during that hurricane season. I do recall seasons like 1998, 1999 and 2000, which have been seen as analogs to some this year, where the season really took off in September. Yeah you would think it’s an El Niño year The way things have been going winds Sheer is really doing damage to any storm that try to get going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 Active EPac and dead Atlantic does look like a warm ENSO. I think the GFS will get onboard with 91L/Danielle once it loses the something from nothing hurricane and its influence pumping heights to the E and sharpening the TUTT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was curious what global effects Tonga might have but I'm wondering if there's any real noticeable effects we'll be able to see since many said we wouldn't notice anything. Honestly maybe there is something to it potentially? There has never been a single La Nina year where we didn't get a named storm in August. The other 4 years were 3 El Nino years and 1 Neutral. So not only is this already rare but insanely rare since this is might be the first La Nina season ever recorded without a named August storm in history. The timing is definitely interesting considering we're at about the point now since eruption where the lag period goes away and you start seeing more noticeable effects from a volcanic eruption. If any of you remember Mount Pinatubo in 1991 it took almost a year for any of its global effects to start becoming noticeable. 2 years after that eruption gave my town the coldest temperature ever recorded in its history during the peak of the effects in 1993, we also coincidentally had the Storm of the Century which some scientists argue was influenced by the effects of the Pinatubo eruption. Thing is Tonga isn't Pinatubo so I wouldn't expect it to have very strong effects globally imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 55 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I see no reason why we've been so inactive. We have a La Nina, we have strong waves leaving Africa. The only possible thing I think could be the Saharan Air but that is a factor every season. Even 2005 had a huge amount of dust in the Summer during that hurricane season. I do recall seasons like 1998, 1999 and 2000, which have been seen as analogs to some this year, where the season really took off in September. Not sure if there are analogs or prior season, but my 8 years in S FL this is by far the driest rainy season/summer we have had with areas from West Palm to Vero having rainfall deficits of 7-10” . Maybe 1999 being drier? Not sure if that is all SAL related or correlated to a quieter than normal Atlantic season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 Funny thing I just noticed is even the awfully quiet and unexciting season of 2013 had more storms form by now than we do currently lol. I can't believe we've almost gone 60 days without a named storm and it's almost september 1st. Literally all the storms this year so far formed in June or the first few days of July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Floydbuster said: Well, I will fall on my sword. I said we'd have a major hurricane by August 28th. We will not. Thanks for posting this. Even during the current very active era, the norm has been no majors on August 28th: - For the 27 seasons 1995-2021, only 6 (22%) had a MH on August 28th. The last one was in 2016. - Even for just the 10 La Nina Augusts back to 1995, there were still only 3 (30%) that had a MH in the Atlantic basin on August 28th (2016, 2010, and 1999). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Modfan2 said: Not sure if there are analogs or prior season, but my 8 years in S FL this is by far the driest rainy season/summer we have had with areas from West Palm to Vero having rainfall deficits of 7-10” . Maybe 1999 being drier? Not sure if that is all SAL related or correlated to a quieter than normal Atlantic season? Dry up here in Brevard, too. 40% of the county in moderate drought, 50% abnormally dry. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 2 hours ago, thunderbolt said: Yeah you would think it’s an El Niño year The way things have been going winds Sheer is really doing damage to any storm that try to get going Remember that as we head into winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 3 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Funny thing I just noticed is even the awfully quiet and unexciting season of 2013 had more storms form by now than we do currently lol. I can't believe we've almost gone 60 days without a named storm and it's almost september 1st. Literally all the storms this year so far formed in June or the first few days of July And the naming Colin was an absolute joke. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 I'm dedicating this to DT and JB... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 5 hours ago, Floydbuster said: I see no reason why we've been so inactive. We have a La Nina, we have strong waves leaving Africa. The only possible thing I think could be the Saharan Air but that is a factor every season. Even 2005 had a huge amount of dust in the Summer during that hurricane season. I do recall seasons like 1998, 1999 and 2000, which have been seen as analogs to some this year, where the season really took off in September. Third year La Niña/cold neutral seasons have had a tendency to be quite a bit weaker than their respective prior seasons and many other La Niña seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: Third year La Niña/cold neutral seasons have had a tendency to be quite a bit weaker than their respective prior seasons and many other La Niña seasons. How many third year Cold neutral years were there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 Every model has fake tropical cyclones occasionally. Only the GFS insists on an absolute beast for 6 days in a row when no other model is showing it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 59 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: How many third year Cold neutral years were there? Eight third year cold ENSO seasons: 1874, 1894, 1910, 1917, 1956, 1975, 1985, 2000 Source: Eric Webb https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 28, 2022 Share Posted August 28, 2022 The happy hour GFS was a good laugh between the fake storm in the western gulf and the circle back track into NC/SC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 44 minutes ago, Amped said: The happy hour GFS was a good laugh between the fake storm in the western gulf and the circle back track into NC/SC. Yep and then comes up our way and gives us a drought buster like you said you need a good laugh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 1 hour ago, thunderbolt said: Yep and then comes up our way and gives us a drought buster like you said you need a good laugh We need the rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 Took a look and this has been the quietest start to any hurricane season since 1994 which only had 3 named storms up until this point. Since the active phase of the Atlantic started in 1995 no season has ever been as quiet as this one this late. Now if you want to also include Depressions then this has been the quietest season since 1992. Both of those seasons were before the inactive phase switched to the current active phase. Honestly we should be getting close to entering a new inactive phase soon since those normally only last 20-30 years on average and so far we've been in the current active phase for 27 years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 0Z guidance was a snooze fest 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 20 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: 0Z guidance was a snooze fest Lots of recurves; still plenty of time to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 3 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said: Took a look and this has been the quietest start to any hurricane season since 1994 which only had 3 named storms up until this point. Since the active phase of the Atlantic started in 1995 no season has ever been as quiet as this one this late. Now if you want to also include Depressions then this has been the quietest season since 1992. Both of those seasons were before the inactive phase switched to the current active phase. Honestly we should be getting close to entering a new inactive phase soon since those normally only last 20-30 years on average and so far we've been in the current active phase for 27 years Only curveball there is climate change, but its tough to tell what impact that will have on the tropical season moving forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 Until we get a system center and we start getting frequent GIV missions to sample the atmosphere it's still a toss up. We should have a system in SW Atlantic within threatening distance but whether it really threatens or recurve is still a pretty large unknown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: 0Z guidance was a snooze fest Miserable way to end the season. If it forms its a recurving nothing so i was quite accurate about the locked in trof instead of preseason forecasts of a ridge. There is nothing behind it as conditions will become increasingly unfavorable. Super typhoon in west pac=zippo atl. We wont even have a 1 storm season. Larry Cosgrove had the best pro forecast 14/7/2 and even that looks too high. Even JB cant bother to talk about it. The JB-O-Meter is at zero right now.. Look at the sky high pressures in the Atlantic tropics after dani bebops. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr And there you are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 Miserable way to end the season. ... We wont even have a 1 storm season. ...And there you are.lol bless your heart. You don't have a major to ravage the coastline. Guess you'll move on to a subforum Winter thread now? Peace out, homeslice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 38 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Miserable way to end the season. I agree most hurricanes seasons do end after the 15th of September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 46 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Miserable way to end the season. If it forms its a recurving nothing so i was quite accurate about the locked in trof instead of preseason forecasts of a ridge. There is nothing behind it as conditions will become increasingly unfavorable. Super typhoon in west pac=zippo atl. We wont even have a 1 storm season. Larry Cosgrove had the best pro forecast 14/7/2 and even that looks too high. Even JB cant bother to talk about it. The JB-O-Meter is at zero right now.. Look at the sky high pressures in the Atlantic tropics after dani bebops. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr And there you are. What are you talking about ? Peak season is shortly upon us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 I agree most hurricanes seasons do end after the 15th of September lol busting out the sock now eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 29, 2022 Share Posted August 29, 2022 20 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 50 minutes ago, ldub23 said: Miserable way to end the season. ... We wont even have a 1 storm season. ... And there you are. lol bless your heart. You don't have a major to ravage the coastline. Guess you'll move on to a subforum Winter thread now? Peace out, homeslice! None of us are here for sunny pleasant weather. And i might be mistaken but last time i looked they were praying for a bitter cold and snowy winter in the winter sub-forum. I suppose that kind of death and destruction is ok. Personally, i like snow but not cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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