2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[ldub23]

I guess we will find  out soon enough if it even survives. If it survives  it  gets  close enough so small changes  could  mean a  hit. One cautionary  note as  usual. Euro shows  nothing  in front  of  it and just a  couple  of  weak lows behind  it. Is this  the  1 storm for  the season or will the dry air  choke  it  out?

GFS delaying development  yet again. Maybe we should wait to see  if  it  can develop before we worry  about where  its  going.

 

******GFS much much weaker. Never gets  it  below  1002 mb then takes the weak nothing  low to meet another weak low in a  mid-atlantic dance to nowheresville.

0/0/0 Aug still in play and  now we  have to wonder when a real cane will form. GFS still has  the  gom cane.

And there you  are.

 

This  isnt the  look i would want to see for  a disturbance to intensify into a  major  hurricane. Very  chaotic  with cloud  fragments everywhere. Im thinking  Hugo looked a  bit  better at this  position

And there you are.

 

[Diggiebot]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

I guess we will find  out soon enough if it even survives. If it survives  it  gets  close enough so small changes  could  mean a  hit. One cautionary  note as  usual. Euro shows  nothing  in front  of  it and just a  couple  of  weak lows behind  it. Is this  the  1 storm for  the season or will the dry air  choke  it  out?

GFS delaying development  yet again. Maybe we should wait to see  if  it  can develop before we worry  about where  its  going.

 

******GFS much much weaker. Never gets  it  below  1002 mb then takes the weak nothing  low to meet another weak low in a  mid-atlantic dance to nowheresville.

0/0/0 Aug still in play and  now we  have to wonder when a real cane will form. GFS still has  the  gom cane.

And there you  are.

 

This  isnt the  look i would want to see for  a disturbance to intensify into a  major  hurricane. Very  chaotic  with cloud  fragments everywhere. Im thinking  Hugo looked a  bit  better at this  position

And there you are.

 

When you only post the same thing you lose all credibility. 

[Prismshine Productions]

This is just my opinion:

Who the hell cares if we have an inactive season? After the last few years of the tropics being on steroids, I am actually GLAD for the way the season had gone so far.

Sent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

When you only post the same thing you lose all credibility. 

There's no credibility to lose. There hasn't been any in 20+ years of posting going back to Isabel and before. That being said, ldub is looking incredibly lucky for August and it would be funny if the weak season call ends up right despite no credible scientific reasoning backing the prediction. There was one weak year that the same person won in a season contest I ran naturally due to eternal bearishness.

 On a related note, keep in mind that a TD that forms in August that then becomes a TS in Sept. is counted by some including me as an August, not Sept., storm due to going by month of TC genesis.

 

[thunderbolt]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

There's no credibility to lose. There hasn't been any in 20+ years of posting going back to Isabel and before. That being said, ldub is looking incredibly lucky for August and it would be funny if the weak season call ends up right despite no credible scientific reasoning backing the prediction. There was one weak year that the same person won in a season contest I ran naturally due to eternal bearishness.

 On a related note, keep in mind that a TD that forms in August that then becomes a TS in Sept. is counted by some including me as an August, not Sept., storm due to going by month of TC genesis.

 

Not me I go by when it’s giving its name then it’s official

[Windspeed]

There's no credibility to lose. There hasn't been any in 20+ years of posting going back to Isabel and before. That being said, ldub is looking incredibly lucky for August and it would be funny if the weak season call ends up right despite no credible scientific reasoning backing the prediction. There was one weak year that the same person won in a season contest I ran naturally due to eternal bearishness.
 On a related note, keep in mind that a TD that forms in August that then becomes a TS in Sept. is counted by some including me as an August, not Sept., storm due to going by month of TC genesis.
 

Count, tropical cyclone days (TCD), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and pressure accumulated cyclone energy (PACE) are officially binned within the scientific community by month of genesis.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, Diggiebot said:

When you only post the same thing you lose all credibility. 

I told him to be happy if August winds up 0/0/0 and take the rare win. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I'm fine with 91L, but I'm seeing 92L products, judging from the SHIPS it is in the sub-tropical Atlantic where there is nothing obvious on satellite.

[KChuck]

14 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I told him to be happy if August winds up 0/0/0 and take the rare win. 

A broken clock is correct twice a day. Also a blind squirrel finds a nut every now and then. 

[NorthHillsWx]

I love this board. Carry on 

[Dan76]

34 pgs 

[etudiant]

Is not the issue mostly that the professional consensus forecast for a well above normal season appears to be mistaken?

All the various indicators such as SST are positive, yet the result is not. It would be helpful to learn what is being missed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, etudiant said:

Is not the issue mostly that the professional consensus forecast for a well above normal season appears to be mistaken?

All the various indicators such as SST are positive, yet the result is not. It would be helpful to learn what is being missed.

It has something to do with the volcano, I think. 

[Windspeed]

It has something to do with the volcano, I think. 

Possible, this is a hypothesis that will be researched. The amount of water vapor blasted into the atmosphere was significant, but was it enough to force suppression in the N. Atlantic basin? I'd buy into some influence support tanking ENSO for an abnormally strong third-year La Nina. The timing of a hyperactive EPAC in July was pretty wonky though. Really everything is a bit wack and needs looked into. Edit: I should clarify looked into relative to third year La Nina anomolies, not necessarily overall for the Atlantic tropical season as we're still not to a point I would claim it will not be a busy season, though obviously hyperactive looks far less possible now, though not yet out of possibility. We've seen some insane Septembers in the past 25 years.

[tiger_deF]

Convection is sporadic, but this is by far the best 850 mb vorticity 91L has displayed so far. This system is absolutely consolidating, and it looks to have quite the fetch. This could work against it in the long run if dry air becomes entrained, but this system has the potential to be a formidable hurricane.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It has something to do with the volcano, I think. 

Possible, this is a hypothesis that will be researched. The amount of water vapor blasted into the atmosphere was significant, but was it enough to force suppression in the N. Atlantic basin? I'd buy into some influence support tanking ENSO for an abnormally strong third-year La Nina. The timing of a hyperactive EPAC in July was pretty wonky though. Really everything is a bit wack and needs looked into.

Yea, nobody knows for sure and its probably a combination of factors.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

There's no credibility to lose. There hasn't been any in 20+ years of posting going back to Isabel and before. That being said, ldub is looking incredibly lucky for August and it would be funny if the weak season call ends up right despite no credible scientific reasoning backing the prediction. There was one weak year that the same person won in a season contest I ran naturally due to eternal bearishness.
 On a related note, keep in mind that a TD that forms in August that then becomes a TS in Sept. is counted by some including me as an August, not Sept., storm due to going by month of TC genesis.
 

Count, tropical cyclone days (TCD), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and pressure accumulated cyclone energy (PACE) are officially binned within the scientific community by month of genesis.

 So, are you saying you'd count a TC genesis on, say, August 31st, that doesn't strengthen to a TD til, say, Sept 1st an August storm like I would?

 The reason I've decided to do it this way is because the NHC seasonal archives list a storm's start date as the date it first became a TD. Different strokes for different folks. There's no right or wrong way imho.

 Also, if I want to get technical, I could add to this discussion whether or not to use GMT 0Z as the cutoff time for a new day. I think using GMT is reasonable. 
Opinions about this?
 

 

[Windspeed]

 So, are you saying you'd count a TC genesis on, say, August 31st, that doesn't strengthen to a TD til, say, Sept 1st an August storm like I would?
 The reason I've decided to do it this way is because the NHC seasonal archives list a storm's start date as the date it first became a TD. Different strokes for different folks. There's no right or wrong way imho.
 Also, if I want to get technical, I could add to this discussion where her or not to use GMT 0Z as the cutoff time for a new day.
 
 

Genesis is when the disturbance or invest is classified a depression. So yes, metrics for the cyclone count from date of genesis for archival purposes officially so I tend to follow that.

[GaWx]

2 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 So, are you saying you'd count a TC genesis on, say, August 31st, that doesn't strengthen to a TD til, say, Sept 1st an August storm like I would?
 The reason I've decided to do it this way is because the NHC seasonal archives list a storm's start date as the date it first became a TD. Different strokes for different folks. There's no right or wrong way imho.
 Also, if I want to get technical, I could add to this discussion where her or not to use GMT 0Z as the cutoff time for a new day.
 
 

Genesis is when the disturbance or invest is classified a depression. So yes, metrics for the cyclone count towards date of genesis for archival purposes officially so I tend to follow that.

 What about time zone for a new day? 0Z (GMT) or some other way or other time zone?

[Windspeed]

 What about time zone for a new day? 0Z (GMT) or some other way or other time zone?

Depends on the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centres (RSMC) in charge I suppose. The NHC issues advisories in AST unless the cyclone enters or is classified a CONUS timezone. Though the advisory always specifies the UTC time as it should for archival purposes, the date of advisory package delineates its regional timezone (Edit: delinates for the eastern most weather and maritime offices, etc., it has to direct for TC packages, i.e., SJU in PR). So I suppose I would follow the AST timestamp for genesis in the Atlantic unless a CONUS timezone is more applicable to TC position.

[Floydbuster]

The OOZ Euro shows the system on the doorstep of Southeast Florida in 240 hrs.

The 00Z CMC shows the system just off the Bahamas, moving little in weak steering currents. This model also shows the system not gaining much longitude for about 4-5 days just east of the Lesser Antilles, however.

[ldub23]

4 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

The OOZ Euro shows the system on the doorstep of Southeast Florida in 240 hrs.

The 00Z CMC shows the system just off the Bahamas, moving little in weak steering currents. This model also shows the system not gaining much longitude for about 4-5 days just east of the Lesser Antilles, however.

Also far weaker and it  has  nothing else  but  very  high pressures  in the tropics. Its  1009mb at  hour  222. I seriously  doubt it  can even be that "strong"

The  little thing east  of  bermuda  might  end  up the strongest storm of the season. Way too dry.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

Everytime  i get  mocked the tropics shut down. Here  is Sept 13 on the GFS. As  i suspected a winterlike  pattern would set  in early giving an early  end to the  cane season. VERY STRONG  LOW AND  FRONT. One question though. Can a season end early  if  it  never started?

 

 

And there you are.

 

JB now agreeing with me about a  cooler than normal Sept and Oct but  never  fear!! There will be a feeding frenzy  in the  tropics( who cares  if there is? It sure as hell aint gonna  be  near the  US)

 

And there you are.

 

****11/7/3 for  2023 cane season. Much more active with several actual trackable storms.

*****My winter prediction is  150% normal snowfall from RIC to BOS.

 

And there you are.

[Kevin Reilly]

9 hours ago, Windspeed said:

Possible, this is a hypothesis that will be researched. The amount of water vapor blasted into the atmosphere was significant, but was it enough to force suppression in the N. Atlantic basin? I'd buy into some influence support tanking ENSO for an abnormally strong third-year La Nina. The timing of a hyperactive EPAC in July was pretty wonky though. Really everything is a bit wack and needs looked into. Edit: I should clarify looked into relative to third year La Nina anomolies, not necessarily overall for the Atlantic tropical season as we're still not to a point I would claim it will not be a busy season, though obviously hyperactive looks far less possible now, though not yet out of possibility. We've seen some insane Septembers in the past 25 years.

Where was the Volcano eruption? Are we talking the one in the southwest Pacific back in early June?

[Windspeed]

Where was the Volcano eruption? Are we talking the one in the southwest Pacific back in early June?

Yes, the large Tonga eruption. There is chatter ongoing that it might be having some subtle influence on present macro scale patterns like current ENSO state but it's early on speculation and just a hypothesis. I do not think it has been scientifically linked via research or proven yet.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

5 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Also far weaker and it  has  nothing else  but  very  high pressures  in the tropics. Its  1009mb at  hour  222. I seriously  doubt it  can even be that "strong"

The  little thing east  of  bermuda  might  end  up the strongest storm of the season. Way too dry.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022082800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr

Everytime  i get  mocked the tropics shut down. Here  is Sept 13 on the GFS. As  i suspected a winterlike  pattern would set  in early giving an early  end to the  cane season. VERY STRONG  LOW AND  FRONT. One question though. Can a season end early  if  it  never started?

 

 

And there you are.

 

JB now agreeing with me about a  cooler than normal Sept and Oct but  never  fear!! There will be a feeding frenzy  in the  tropics( who cares  if there is? It sure as hell aint gonna  be  near the  US)

 

And there you are.

 

****11/7/3 for  2023 cane season. Much more active with several actual trackable storms.

*****My winter prediction is  150% normal snowfall from RIC to BOS.

 

And there you are.

I mention posting an op Day 16 won't convince anyone.  You could use ensemble means to show anomalous/November-ish heights, if you can find one to support your idea.  16 days out operational to prove the tropics are dead are just as worthless as posting the 16 day and claim Miami or New Orleans will be hit by a Cat 4 hurricane.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

92L is a vigorous looking LLC with convection trying to form over the center and then having storms sheared off.  It looks like just a bit of reduced shear it'd be be a TC.  It is near 30N, or it is mostly just a curiosity.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/23/2022 at 11:05 PM, raindancewx said:

https://lamont.columbia.edu/news/large-volcanic-eruptions-can-alter-hurricane-strength-and-frequency

I have a whole bunch of papers I like on volcanism and weather patterns, but this one is probably the most relevant for the idiotic forecasts of hyperactivity this year following a VEI 5-6 eruption. Major volcanic eruptions in the tropics + ENSO have been studied for a while.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1900777116

 

On 8/24/2022 at 8:29 PM, raindancewx said:

The volcano that erupted earlier this year was an underwater event. So much of the emission material into the sky is water vapor. That's a known green house gas, with relatively little S04 emitted compared to similar sized eruptions like Pinatubo.

The paper I linked in the ENSO thread on volcanic impacts to hurricane activity says that typically a Southern Hemisphere volcano moves the location of the Inter-Tropical-Convergence-Zone (ITCZ) and disrupts/enhances hurricane formation/intensity in some areas in both hemispheres.

https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.1900777116

In summary, tropical eruptions lead to a consistent decrease in environmental variables associated with the number and intensity of tropical cyclones over Southeast Asia, northwestern and northeastern Australia regardless of whether the eruption occurs in the NH or SH. In the other regions, TrNH and TrSH eruptions lead instead to opposing effects. In particular, the variables associated with number and intensity of TCs decrease in the North Atlantic after TrNH and increase following TrSH eruptions.

But that paper assumes high aerosol emission - I've been working on the assumption that the water vapor delivered high up into the sky had the equivalent of an anti-aerosol outcome. In other words, normally a volcano in the Southern Hemisphere would enhance N-Hemisphere ACE/hurricane activity with the aerosols. But this volcano did the opposite. The "pseudo" El Nino response everyone is bitching about I think is actually the extra forcing from the heat added to the system by the volcano.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/tonga-eruption-blasted-unprecedented-amount-of-water-into-stratosphere

In the study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, Millán and his colleagues estimate that the Tonga eruption sent around 146 teragrams (1 teragram equals a trillion grams) of water vapor into Earth’s stratosphere – equal to 10% of the water already present in that atmospheric layer. That’s nearly four times the amount of water vapor that scientists estimate the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines lofted into the stratosphere.

The extra water vapor / sudden forcing via extra heat is also consistent with the wildness of the Summer - drought/heat in Europe, China, the Central US, and then very active/wet monsoons in other places. I have a method for dealing with volcanic effects in my outlook, but this will be the first year I've had to test it. Should be a weird winter. There are a lot of weird things that happen after big volcanic eruptions.

 

On 8/24/2022 at 9:30 PM, raindancewx said:

Also, for what it's worth, no hurricane seasons with under 10 ACE total through 8/31 have blown up to hyper activity in at least the last 90 years. So the hurricane season is pretty likely to stay dead if nothing blows up in the next week. A lot of the dead seasons in La Ninas in the 1970s/1980s also followed volcanoes - you had a big eruption in Central America in Fall 1974 I'm pretty sure. The AMO is a bit over-rated as a hurricane indicator since the tropics are always warm, and what you really need is something to screw up pressure patterns.

Statistically, hurricane activity through August v. the total of the season behaves something like ((August ACE) x (1.9)) + (47). So the entire range in 90 years is 0-120 ACE or something if the season stays under 10 ACE through 8/31, centered right around 50 ACE, with like a 90%+ chance of under 100. Super super dead for a La Nina. 

 

On 8/25/2022 at 7:36 PM, raindancewx said:

I'm treating Tonga as a N. Hem volcano because it erupted more greenhouse gasses than aerosols, since N Hem / S Hem volcanoes have opposite effects on the Northern Hemisphere hurricane seasons. So the big N. Hem volcanoes I know of are El Chicon (1982), with Volcan De Fuego debatable in 1932 and 1974. I don't think the 1932 eruption was big enough though - since 1933 was an insane hurricane season. The volcanic / dead La Nina hurricane seasons I'm looking at are really 1983-84, 1984-85, and 1985-86 (even though I don't consider it a La Nina, it's close enough).

You won't find a match on all the factors you listed with how few major volcanic years there are. High solar is generally a monsoon enhancer globally. The top precipitation matches recently, on a national level have been these:

You can see temps are similar to a similar set of years too. It's generally a dead La Nina / cold ENSO + volcanic blend.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

 

 

 

@Windspeedand others, you may find some of the above interesting. 

[Windspeed]

[mention=845]Windspeed[/mention]and others, you may find some of the above interesting. 

Yeah there is a plethora of research on volcanic aerosols either from a coolant or greenhouse influence via SO2 or CO2 as it relates to specific large eruptive output. But Tonga is unique in that it forced a tremendous amount of H20 water vapor into the stratosphere rapidly. I suppose that's posing new questions about how and to what effects that may have where it appears the research is far more limited.

[Floydbuster]

Well, I will fall on my sword. I said we'd have a major hurricane by August 28th. We will not.

That being said, I am kinda surprised why the GFS isn't more enthusiastic about Invest 91L.