Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: Notably the 6z ECMWF run didn't lose the system still develops a closed depression within the 2-day range. Or the tropics still have a chance to break up LDub's 'perfect game' of a 0/0/0 August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 I would want to believe the Euro before GFS, wouldn't I? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 Impressive band of convection forming in the northeast side which is where the wave is merging. I could see this outperforming the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 The GFS shows some solid 500 mb vorticity where the system is now, but over the next 5+ days it shows a bunch of mid-Atlantic troughiness continually trying to yank it north and pull it apart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 32 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I would want to believe the Euro before GFS, wouldn't I? Icon is pretty close to the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon is pretty close to the euro Um, I would take the GFS before the ICON in the tropics 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 23 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The GFS shows some solid 500 mb vorticity where the system is now, but over the next 5+ days it shows a bunch of mid-Atlantic troughiness continually trying to yank it north and pull it apart. Yeah, far from a slam dunk imo. That said, I’m a little wary of the gfs having so much troughiness out there. It seems to try to roll a lot of dubious stuff up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 Yeah, far from a slam dunk imo. That said, I’m a little wary of the gfs having so much troughiness out there. It seems to try to roll a lot of dubious stuff up.GFS continues wanting to develop the Carribean disturbance which counters upper ridging with a TUTT thereby inhibiting favorable conditions for the Atlantic system. The ECMWF is completely opposite with no WCARIB development thereby allowing a nice upper level pattern to develop downstream for a hypothetical hurricane nearto or north of the Greater Antilles. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 21 minutes ago, yoda said: Um, I would take the GFS before the ICON in the tropics Sure, when it's head to head. But now 12z CMC also is showing the same thing, so the competition is Euro/CMC/Icon vs GFS. Who ya got now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 14 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, far from a slam dunk imo. That said, I’m a little wary of the gfs having so much troughiness out there. It seems to try to roll a lot of dubious stuff up. GFS continues wanting to develop the Carribean disturbance which counters upper ridging with a TUTT thereby inhibiting favorable conditions for the Atlantic system. The ECMWF is completely opposite with no WCARIB development thereby allowing a nice upper level pattern to develop downstream for a hypothetical hurricane nearto or north of the Greater Antilles. I still think that Caribbean disturbance has a chance, but I’m not as bullish as the GFS lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 17 minutes ago, Windspeed said: 22 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, far from a slam dunk imo. That said, I’m a little wary of the gfs having so much troughiness out there. It seems to try to roll a lot of dubious stuff up. GFS continues wanting to develop the Carribean disturbance which counters upper ridging with a TUTT thereby inhibiting favorable conditions for the Atlantic system. The ECMWF is completely opposite with no WCARIB development thereby allowing a nice upper level pattern to develop downstream for a hypothetical hurricane nearto or north of the Greater Antilles. And we usually would think the EURO is the better model so we go with that one lol... but this tropical season, who knows? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 I am curious, I don't have easy access to individual GFS members, if the GEFS that aren't spinning up a spurious significant Gulf low are the same ones that have the Central Atlantic wave as a hurricane N of the E. Greater Antilles next weekend. GFS ensembles do seem to be backing off from a Gulf system, I suspect that trend continues, and as the GFS loses the Gulf not-a-cane, they'll get even more on board for an E Coast storm or late curving fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 I’m not doing play by play, but the Euro is relatively robust for the disturbance even at 24h. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 It looks like on visible that's it's trying to tighten up a low level spin... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I’m not doing play by play, but the Euro is relatively robust for the disturbance even at 24h. Maybe you should do play-by-play and get yourself ready for a nor’easter coming up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, thunderbolt said: Maybe you should do play-by-play and get yourself ready for a nor’easter coming up the coast I need the rain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 Like the GFS, the Euro also shows the 500 mb energy getting stretched apart by the developing upper low to the north. However, while the GFS has a bunch more troughiness beyond that, the Euro builds an upper ridge, so the system is able to reorganize and head wnw into a favorable environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 35 minutes ago, cptcatz said: It looks like on visible that's it's trying to tighten up a low level spin... Interesting to note the dry air to the S of the 'Orange' creating outflow boundaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 At 180 hours it's booking wnw toward the Bahamas and there is nothing but strong ridging across the US and into the western Atlantic. It has nowhere to go but west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 7 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: At 180 hours it's booking wnw toward the Bahamas and there is nothing but strong ridging across the US and into the western Atlantic. It has nowhere to go but west. Well, I guess I have to take that back. After 180 hours a very strong ridge pops over sw/sc Canada, and in response a trough forms over se Canada. That trough is far away from the cyclone, but it weakens the west-Atlantic ridge so the storm is slowing and turning nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 This system seems legit. I think it'll be close whether it could develop this month. It'll probably become a name on the 31st or something to kill the 0/0/0 chances No idea where it'll go track wise though. Euro gets it just east of the Bahamas and then steering collapses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 Boy, the western Atlantic ridge to the north of the storm vanishes in a flash at the end of the run. What initially looks like a free run to the coast turns into a northeastward escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Boy, the western Atlantic ridge to the north of the storm vanishes in a flash at the end of the run. What initially looks like a free run to the coast turns into a northeastward escape. It was like It hit a brick wall Fishy fishy fishy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Boy, the western Atlantic ridge to the north of the storm vanishes in a flash at the end of the run. What initially looks like a free run to the coast turns into a northeast-escaping storm. This isn't really surprising that's been the pattern basically since early July strong WSW to ENE flow basically Southeastern States to Outer Banks out to sea that's been one flow and then well north another fast west to east flow across the Great Lakes into the Northern Mid Atlantic then moves ENE from there, that has been the biggest reason for the drought Mason Dixon Line Points NE to Southeastern New England. It is very dry up in these regions right now obviously unrelated to tropical system but to the pattern that will steer it. My two cents probably at this point it is a 50/50 whether it turns north and moves out sea or cuts across the Bahamas across south Florida and into the Gulf. In our pattern over the past 4-5 weeks, I would say moving West across south Florida into the Gulf would be my pick due to the ridge placements up north and the upper air lows that were passing south of Cuba recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 At 10 days out the ensembles are probably a better guide, for individual perturbations at the surface and, for steering, the ensemble mean. Be interesting to see what the GFS/GEFS will do once it loses the Gulf not-a-cane. Having the two major models correctly seeing the system in 2 or 3 days will set the real threat (or fish) area. My takeway from the 12Z GEFS is that it is starting to lose the unlikely Gulf system. The GEFS that do develop this are tending fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: No idea where it'll go track wise though. Euro gets it just east of the Bahamas and then steering collapses. Where have I heard that before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 12z EPS—It’s a pretty strong signal that this doesn’t really get going until the Antilles, but development likely happens sooner. Not really thinking about track at this point. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 12z EPS—It’s a pretty strong signal that this doesn’t really get going until the Antilles, but development likely happens sooner. Not really thinking about track at this point. Lots of hooks right in that suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Lots of hooks right in that suite Most models were also showing Irma hooking right while it was in the middle of the Atlantic as well... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2022 Share Posted August 27, 2022 12 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Lots of hooks right in that suite Too far out to determine that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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