2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[cptcatz]

I'm watching this closely from Boca Raton...

[schoeppeya]

I’ve seen a lot uglier systems than that classified 

[bigtenfan]

39 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I'm watching this closely from Boca Raton...

Me as well

It is hard to tell especially on the EPS which only goes out to 240hr but it looks like the projected trajectory of the vast majority of the members is suggesting recurve.

[Windspeed]

Me as well
It is hard to tell especially on the EPS which only goes out to 240hr but it looks like the projected trajectory of the vast majority of the members is suggesting recurve.

That's only suggestive of the pure AEW near to the Verdes however. The potential TCG from the monsoonal trough gets captured under a WAR scenario, which could lead to potential land threat. So that needs to be watched.

[cptcatz]

36 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

Me as well

It is hard to tell especially on the EPS which only goes out to 240hr but it looks like the projected trajectory of the vast majority of the members is suggesting recurve.

The EPS model on Tropical Tidbits go out further than 240hr and show South Florida is in play bigtime...

[bigtenfan]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

The EPS model on Tropical Tidbits go out further than 240hr and show South Florida is in play bigtime...

True but the way the models have bounced around this year I can't get too concerned about a few ensamble members 300+/- hours out.

[Floydbuster]

Euro ensembles definitely zero in on Florida.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I know Mid-Atlantic 'Not a Lemon' is under high shear (although it is a nicely divergent shearing) and has SAL to its N, but CIMSS-TPW suggests the dry air to its N is shrinking, and it has obvious vorticity a smidge S of 10N.  No model or NHC love, but that, IMO, may be the best chance at a 1 storm August

[Windspeed]

May need an invest at the least out of the monsoonal feature soon. There is notable covergent banding establishing to the WNW of the mid-level circulation. The system is beginning to show signs of breaking/folding off from the WSW oriented surface trough and we may see tighter surface vort form / TCG in the next 24-36 hrs.

[Superstorm93]

Certainly looks interesting, but this thing has a pretty long journey ahead of it to become a TC. Basically a monsoon depression at this point and an earlier ASCAT did not reveal any signs of a coherent LLC. 

I'm pretty confident we make it out of August without a single NS. Pretty remarkable and I'll certainly take it after the last 6 years of insanity. 

[ldub23]

Not at all impressed with the  12Z GFS. Still has what  i think is a  phantom supercane now  back to hitting Mexico. The  other storm the Euro agreed with is  much weaker and  is  basically  a  nothing  now bebopping  out to sea. The run ends with a  couple  of weak lows here and there. Overall for the  peak of the season that was supposed to be hyperactive there are  no threats. If somehow the  GFS supercane does form then i will eat 3 whole grain crossaints.

 

 

The  GFS supercane isnt that far  off  now. Something should  be showing  up soon thats the reason for  it  to form. The  lead disturbance  in the Atlantic may well just dry  up. It has that  look.

[SnoSki14]

Euro looking interesting. 

[cptcatz]

Euro going all in

[Windspeed]

12z ECMWF tries to close off a dominate surface vortmax with the monsoonal feature around 56-66 hrs. Obviously dependant evolution of the overall gyre. But this is the feature that it develops into a hurricane as it traverses into the western basin.

[rclab]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Not at all impressed with the  12Z GFS. Still has what  i think is a  phantom supercane now  back to hitting Mexico. The  other storm the Euro agreed with is  much weaker and  is  basically  a  nothing  now bebopping  out to sea. The run ends with a  couple  of weak lows here and there. Overall for the  peak of the season that was supposed to be hyperactive there are  no threats. If somehow the  GFS supercane does form then i will eat 3 whole grain crossaints.

 

 

The  GFS supercane isnt that far  off  now. Something should  be showing  up soon thats the reason for  it  to form. The  lead disturbance  in the Atlantic may well just dry  up. It has that  look.

Good afternoon Idub23. After you consume those, the probability of your system being less tranquil that the Atlantic may accelerate. Stay well, as always ….

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

GFS always seems to overdevelop things in the SW Caribbean, a decade ago on this forum Dr. Papin (he was working on his PhD) said the GFS then, to save computing time/resources, used a simplifying assumption of how latent heat of condensation was handled.  Euro tends to be conservative, when the op and ensembles all suggest a significant system may be approaching Florida or the SE coast on or just after Labor Day, I believe it will happen, even if details (maybe it makes it into the E Gulf, maybe it hits Mid-Atlantic, fish storm, who knows, Euro mean 500 mb suggests all are possible) aren't certain at hour 240.  Mark Sudduth notes we will know if GFS is somehow right about the Caribbean lemon and whether the Euro has a clue in 3 to 5 days.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

3 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Not at all impressed with the  12Z GFS. Still has what  i think is a  phantom supercane now  back to hitting Mexico. The  other storm the Euro agreed with is  much weaker and  is  basically  a  nothing  now bebopping  out to sea. The run ends with a  couple  of weak lows here and there. Overall for the  peak of the season that was supposed to be hyperactive there are  no threats. If somehow the  GFS supercane does form then i will eat 3 whole grain crossaints.

 

 

The  GFS supercane isnt that far  off  now. Something should  be showing  up soon thats the reason for  it  to form. The  lead disturbance  in the Atlantic may well just dry  up. It has that  look.

The GFS has a bad habit of over-developing in the SW Caribbean, but I think the Euro system is the real deal.  Look at the other models.  Look at the TPW, the now strung out system is moistening the atmosphere.  Do you really think the lead disturbance in the MDR looks like it is dying of thirst?

[cptcatz]

40 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

The GFS has a bad habit of over-developing in the SW Caribbean, but I think the Euro system is the real deal.  Look at the other models.  Look at the TPW, the now strung out system is moistening the atmosphere.  Do you really think the lead disturbance in the MDR looks like it is dying of thirst?

Yeah, I mean GFS is all alone with the Caribbean system but every single model has been showing the lead Atlantic system developing for a couple days now. I'd be really surprised if NHC doesn't bump it up to at least 50-60% at 8pm.

[yoda]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

Yeah, I mean GFS is all alone with the Caribbean system but every single model has been showing the lead Atlantic system developing for a couple days now. I'd be really surprised if NHC doesn't bump it up to at least 50-60% at 8pm.

Nope

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and complex area of low pressure over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic Ocean is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
The interaction of this feature with an approaching tropical wave 
could support some gradual development of the system during the 
early and middle parts of next week while it moves slowly westward 
to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is 
producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental 
conditions could become more conducive for slow development of this 
system during the early or middle part of next week while it moves 
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and 
northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[ldub23]

18Z GFS  much weaker with the super cane and far weaker with the  other  storm, if  it ever forms. I think drying up and doing  nothing  is  more  likely  than a strong recurving  cane. Basically its  unlikely the GFS supercane will happen and also unlikely  the Euro threat to the  US will happen. Peak season in a season that was supposed to be  hyperactive and we  have nothing  of  interest.

 

At  372 the  GFS has delayed  once again the development  of the  Euro supercane  and  in any case  its a nothing  bebopping. A very  weak low  in the  central GOM. Very  unimpressive.

 

 

Here  is what the Euro says  is  going to be a US threat and  supercane. Its going to be a  hard road  just to survive

 

[Diggiebot]

17 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

18Z GFS  much weaker with the super cane and far weaker with the  other  storm, if  it ever forms. I think drying up and doing  nothing  is  more  likely  than a strong recurving  cane. Basically its  unlikely the GFS supercane will happen and also unlikely  the Euro threat to the  US will happen. Peak season in a season that was supposed to be  hyperactive and we  have nothing  of  interest.

 

At  372 the  GFS has delayed  once again the development  of the  Euro supercane  and  in any case  its a nothing  bebopping. A very  weak low  in the  central GOM. Very  unimpressive.

 

Development potential and general pattern and ensembles is what you should be looking at not 372 hour clown maps. 

[WxWatcher007]

35 minutes ago, yoda said:

Nope

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad and complex area of low pressure over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic Ocean is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
The interaction of this feature with an approaching tropical wave 
could support some gradual development of the system during the 
early and middle parts of next week while it moves slowly westward 
to west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Eastern Caribbean Sea:
A trough of low pressure located over the eastern Caribbean Sea is 
producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental 
conditions could become more conducive for slow development of this 
system during the early or middle part of next week while it moves 
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and 
northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

It’s a complicated setup. It’d take time even in a great environment. Probably worth an invest though given the other crap we’ve had designed so far this season. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

32 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

18Z GFS  much weaker with the super cane and far weaker with the  other  storm, if  it ever forms. I think drying up and doing  nothing  is  more  likely  than a strong recurving  cane. Basically its  unlikely the GFS supercane will happen and also unlikely  the Euro threat to the  US will happen. Peak season in a season that was supposed to be  hyperactive and we  have nothing  of  interest.

 

At  372 the  GFS has delayed  once again the development  of the  Euro supercane  and  in any case  its a nothing  bebopping. A very  weak low  in the  central GOM. Very  unimpressive.

 

 

Here  is what the Euro says  is  going to be a US threat and  supercane. Its going to be a  hard road  just to survive

 

Are we looking at the same models, satellite imagery and CIMMS data?  I agree, the GFS Caribbean lemon is not happening, but SAL is improving, the elliptical wave is enhancing moisture around it and is convectively active and is supported by the 18Z GFS ensembles.  You won on the 0/0/0 (unless MDR lemon gets named 8/31/2022, which is NOT impossible), I've seen your 2017 Harvey/Irma/Maria posts quoted.  You always predict no tropical activity, you finally won.  Take your very rare win and stop whining.  I mentioned 12Z Euro ensembles point to Florida, but have room for North Carolina/Virginia landfall this far out.

 

You being off the forum w/o electricity in about 2 weeks will be amusing.  Not a guarantee, I'm not looking to cherry pick some off hour 2 week op, but it will be amusing.

[hlcater]

hype level 3/10 with potential to increase that in the coming days

[yoda]

Besides a hurricane into N MX around Day 9 that crosses the N Yucatan Peninsula around Day 7... 00z GFS not really enthused with anything out in the Atlantic for its run tonight

00z GGEM has a middle Atlantic storm... but its in the process of recurve at Day 10 after slow meandering west movement from Day 5 on -- its' also a good distance east of the Antilles FWIW.  00z GGEM does not have any resemblance of the 00z GFS hurricane.

Neither really show anything of interest coming off Africa either... but granted this will change next run of course lol

ETA -- if you want something interesting tonight, the 00z ICON will strike your fancy lol.  Takes the middle Atlantic low and develops it by Day 4/5.  But instead of taking a CMC path of recurve, it is just north of the Greater Antilles at 180 moving W/WNW

[yoda]

00z EURO says lets go BIG

[ldub23]

 

I wish i could take the Euro, but it  is delaying development and  its  quite a  bit weaker than 12Z. All in all rather  disappointing. If the  Euro storm is also a  phantom then i think its time  to hope and  pray the  el nino is weak next cane season so we  have a  cane season.

 

We will see  if  it can survive.

[shaggy]

2 hours ago, yoda said:

00z EURO says lets go BIG

The models are just worlds apart with this system. Let's see which one runs the most consistency.

[Kevin Reilly]

6 hours ago, ldub23 said:

 

I wish i could take the Euro, but it  is delaying development and  its  quite a  bit weaker than 12Z. All in all rather  disappointing. If the  Euro storm is also a  phantom then i think its time  to hope and  pray the  el nino is weak next cane season so we  have a  cane season.

I will take the Euro for what it's worth.  Two days ago the Euro showed not too much of anything.  Over the past days we have known that these systems will not really develop prior to 60 west and well at hour 200-240 here we are.  No model beyond 200 hours has intensity of a tropical system down let alone 10 hours ask those in Punta Gorda in SW Florida in 2004 with Hurricane Charley.

[Windspeed]

Notably the 6z ECMWF run didn't lose the system still develops a closed depression within the 2-day range.