2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[GaWx]

The area south of the CVs has about the most convection of anything in the E MDR since at least the precursor to Bonnie a full 2 months ago. Also, it is quite a bit south of SAL due to its further south location vs recent areas in the E MDR. So, what do others think?

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The area south of the CVs has about the most convection of anything in the E MDR since at least the precursor to Bonnie a full 2 months ago. Also, it is quite a bit south of SAL due to its further south location vs recent areas in the E MDR. So, what do others think?

It’s in a good moisture envelope however… it’s squarely centered in an area of 25-30+ kts of easterly shear. Too far south, you’re in the shear. Too far north, shear looks favorable but you’re stuck in the SAL. It’s a no-win for any AEW at the moment 

[StantonParkHoya]

Now the GFS has basically even lost the Gulf system of any significance.

[GaWx]

The most active 3rd year cold ENSO on record since 1851 of the 8 analogs in terms of ACE is 1894, which was during another active/warm AMO phase. It had an ACE of 135. Like 2022, 1894 followed a very active year, 1893, which was hyperactive with well over 200 ACE. As of the current date, 1894 was very similarly quiet at this point vs 2022 with only two shortlived tropical storms through August 29th. Then starting with the TC genesis of August 30th, the next 4 TCs ended up as major hurricanes:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1894.png

[A-L-E-K]

lol

[GaWx]

 Here's something new on the 12Z UKMET at hour 138 in the far eastern MDR: it is shown as 994 mb, which makes it highly questionable since it is ridiculously strong for being just off Africa. It is moving WNW at a pretty high latitude. That in combination with its supposed strength would mean high chance of an early recurve if it were real:

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 24.08.2022

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 17.5N  16.1W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 30.08.2022  144  18.4N  17.6W      994            44

[WxWatcher007]

50 minutes ago, GaWx said:

The area south of the CVs has about the most convection of anything in the E MDR since at least the precursor to Bonnie a full 2 months ago. Also, it is quite a bit south of SAL due to its further south location vs recent areas in the E MDR. So, what do others think?

That’s the monsoon trough, so it’s not really going anywhere. Look at the SAL that sneaks in between that and the next wave. Absolutely LOLtastic  

[Great Snow 1717]

As I have mentioned, at this point it is best to wait to see if a storm develops, track it for a few days.  No sense to fall for model(s) fantasy depictions....Doing so will  only guarantee a fast and furious sideways path to disappointment...

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS backed development off on the Caribbean system pretty much until it gets to the GOM. Par for the course this season, get around 5 days (or more) out then push back or drop development. At least the models are showing a consistent signal for the last couple days of the month going into September being more active. If we get past that period with nothing to show, this season is going to be an epic bust. It only takes one, but goodness this is probably going to replace 2013 as the biggest season bust, total activity-wise

Some warm ENSO seasons, 1983 and 1992, while each having a US impact major hurricane, make 2013 look like 2005. 1997 had a landfalling US H, but was a bust.  Forecast bust as well, Gray was aware of the ENSO linkage to hurricanes, but the climate models of his day for predicting a warm ENSO weren't great

[Floydbuster]

That's a very impressive wave leaving Africa.

[Great Snow 1717]

Does anyone know when DT will be issuing a new "Sideways Warning" ????

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Some warm ENSO seasons, 1983 and 1992, while each having a US impact major hurricane, make 2013 look like 2005.

That may be where we’re headed. Something tells me we won’t get away unscathed

[cptcatz]

I'm no meteorologist, I'm just a guy with logic, but I think a big problem with the seasonal forecasts is it seems that they pretty much only take two things into account: water temp of the Pacific, and water temp of the Atlantic, and spit out numbers based solely on that.  And yet what we're seeing is there are so many other environmental factors besides it being La Nina with a warm Atlantic.  

But I'm ready to throw my towel to ldub.  I'm getting tired of watching the models keep dropping the storms at the 5 day mark.  What a borefest.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

23 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

GFS monster Gulf storm closes an isobar by Saturday.  Or we know in 3 or 4 days whether it is a model figment.  Pretty sure ~ 30% of 6Z ECENS see it this weekend in the Caribbean.  Similar percentage of GEFS.  But it isn't an 8 day forecast (for formation), its a 3 to 4 day from now per GFS. 

It isn't closing an isobar by Saturday.  Maybe the Saturday after.  GEFS at 5 days no longer in love.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, cptcatz said:

I'm no meteorologist, I'm just a guy with logic, but I think a big problem with the seasonal forecasts is it seems that they pretty much only take two things into account: water temp of the Pacific, and water temp of the Atlantic, and spit out numbers based solely on that.  And yet what we're seeing is there are so many other environmental factors besides it being La Nina with a warm Atlantic.  

But I'm ready to throw my towel to ldub.  I'm getting tired of watching the models keep dropping the storms at the 5 day mark.  What a borefest.

Long overdue for a new approach to developing weather models. Perhaps an approach similar to that of the chess super program Alpha Zero.

[Seminole]

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

[NorthHillsWx]

It looks like it’s going to come down to the last two days of the month as to whether or not we put August 2022 in the history books as the 4th August to ever go without a NS… 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It’s in a good moisture envelope however… it’s squarely centered in an area of 25-30+ kts of easterly shear. Too far south, you’re in the shear. Too far north, shear looks favorable but you’re stuck in the SAL. It’s a no-win for any AEW at the moment 

The 12z GFS forecasted shear anomaly averaged over the next 5 days shows above average shear Africa to Lesser Antilles and below average shear Caribbean before it increases there mid to late next week. So, based on this shear anomaly forecast, fwiw, the E Caribbean may be more vulnerable to a TC genesis than normal through early next week and the W Caribbean til about mid next week.

[GaWx]

12Z Euro looks active throughout the 6-10 within the MDR with 2 TCs moving pretty much westbound. There are two TSs at 240.  

The one then approaching the Virgin Islands is the one producing the lemon now just coming off Africa.

Regarding the further east TC, just about all of the 12Z model runs have a vigorous AEW moving off Africa at 144, including the typically conservative UKMET that I posted earlier.

[cptcatz]

Yeah this is definitely the most interesting euro run in a while. I still don't trust anything beyond 5 days any more than I can throw them. 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It looks like it’s going to come down to the last two days of the month as to whether or not we put August 2022 in the history books as the 4th August to ever go without a NS… 

What were the other 3?

[NorthHillsWx]

45 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

What were the other 3?

1997, 1961, 1941, and I found a 4th, 1929. So this would technically be the 5th time it has ever happened and first in 25 years. During a season that was forecast to be hyperactive, no less.
 

I want to throw a disclaimer that I personally think we’ll get a NS but it will come down to the last or second to last day of the month and will come from that incredibly strong AEW that models and ensemble guidance have picked up for days. If that fails to pan out, I see nothing else that will get named and we’re in crunch time, less than a week to go in August 

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

1997, 1961, 1941, and I found a 4th, 1929. So this would technically be the 5th time it has ever happened and first in 25 years. During a season that was forecast to be hyperactive, no less.
 

I want to throw a disclaimer that I personally think we’ll get a NS but it will come down to the last or second to last day of the month and will come from that incredibly strong AEW that models and ensemble guidance have picked up for days. If that fails to pan out, I see nothing else that will get named and we’re in crunch time, less than a week to go in August 

FYI: 1997, 1941, 1929, El Nino. 1961 the only non-E Nino of the 4 years listed.

[WxWatcher007]

On 8/23/2022 at 7:55 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s an ugly look right now with shear and dry air, but I’d look for the following over the next 3-5 days:

Step 1/Next 48 hours: Does the “wave” axis, which is currently oriented from west-east, begin to tilt more N-S to take on the look of a traditional wave?

Step 2/Friday & Saturday: Does this “wave” break from the monsoon trough and into the eastern Caribbean? I’d want to see a broad area of vorticity, something that resembles a nascent disturbance. Disorganized, but you know it has a chance.

Step 3/Sunday & Monday: Does the disturbance begin to consolidate and fire more persistent convection, setting it on the path of TC genesis. 

On the guidance, ensembles especially, I’d want to see some more robust consensus on development in the central Caribbean. I think we’re starting to see that today, but that can fall apart quickly if these three steps aren’t completed IMO. 

Step 1 looks good and is near completion. The push from South America has pushed the wave nearly upright, with solid vorticity. 

Watching step 2 now. This should happen as well, but let’s watch. 

[Floydbuster]

The EURO ensembles are sniffing out this little thing that just flared up north of the Bahamas. 

[StormchaserChuck!]

If it's not going to be a warm Winter (EC trough), maybe the season will pick up? I also did a research last year that had +EPO's in the Winter time October on, like 300% more storms (if +EPO is coming). That's a positive and a negative to cancel/contradict

low ACE vs ENSO:

[StormchaserChuck!]

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Looks like LW gets his 0/0/0 August, but the models and ensembles are dancing with lampshades on in early September.  Both lemons forecast to develop by the GFS, but not immediately.  The approaching the islands lemon was forecast 2 days ago to be a TC by Saturday, that hasn't happened.  Per Euro, it never will develop.  GFS cooks it on a low simmer until it strengthens and extends my Labor Day Weekend.  GFS has some Euro ensemble support, even if the op keeps it a wave.  I'll weenie for a couple of hours on the fantasy range GFS.  Is it me, or are systems moving slowly this year.  Development or not, the the Lesser Antilles lemon only gets to the Gulf in 10 days and the system behind it isn't that fast either.

[Kevin Reilly]

5 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

The EURO ensembles are sniffing out this little thing that just flared up north of the Bahamas. 

That’s an upper level low doubt that develops.  Not too little it’s a pretty large upper level low which prevents development.