Prospero Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 Quote I know TD-11 crossed over and developed into a TS in 2010, but it only got named Hermine after it crossed. Hermine was one of the three most impressive storms here in Tampa Bay over the past ten years or so. Barely scraped us, but trees and power went down. I still remember it like yesterday. What a mess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 8 hours ago, Prospero said: Hermine was one of the three most impressive storms here in Tampa Bay over the past ten years or so. Barely scraped us, but trees and power went down. I still remember it like yesterday. What a mess! Overnight euro has a strong TS/cat1 heading right to Tampa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted May 30, 2022 Share Posted May 30, 2022 Potential Alex into or just graze FL this upcoming weekend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Modfan2 said: Potential Alex into or just graze FL this upcoming weekend? Looks like that’s becoming increasingly likely. Should be a nice rainmaker. Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Near the Yucatan Peninsula: A large and complex area of low pressure is expected to develop near the Yucatan Peninsula and the northwestern Caribbean Sea in a couple of days, partially related to the remnants of Hurricane Agatha from the eastern Pacific. Thereafter, this system is forecast to move slowly northeastward, and a tropical depression could form in the northwestern Caribbean or southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the latter part of this week. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, Belize, and western Cuba through the week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent. Forecaster Papin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 31, 2022 Author Share Posted May 31, 2022 You look good buddy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 60% chances of Development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 GFS keeps the slop gyre cranking into fantasy range, the not exactly same vort of Agatha, a Pacific system, and maybe a BoC system. (It moves into land quickly). The EPac is prior to resolution truncation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 31, 2022 Share Posted May 31, 2022 Not symmetric before Florida, wrapping in dry air to the center after Florida, when it would have the winds to be named. Depending on how NHC defines hybrid, it flirts (over 50 knots on a 12 km model) with being a hurricane off the East Coast. 39 knots on model at 114 hours, post Florida. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 My tropical update for the day. I basically see 2 scenarios, either it fights the shear and it's a disorganized mess like the GFS shows, or it links into the jet stream and becomes a powerful sub-tropical-ish system like the ECMWF shows 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 1, 2022 Author Share Posted June 1, 2022 Here you go, GOM city shatters old altime May record by almost 3 degrees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 It really looks like it's getting its act together https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=GEOCOLOR&length=48&dim=1 Likely to be officially declared a cyclone today. GFS starting to align with ECMWF scenario of a more substantial system hitting Florida Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 12z GFS coming in hot with a legit tropical storm hitting Florida and visible satellite is showing some nice spinnage. Maybe time to make a new 91L thread? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 30 minutes ago, cptcatz said: 12z GFS coming in hot with a legit tropical storm hitting Florida and visible satellite is showing some nice spinnage. Maybe time to make a new 91L thread? Go ahead and start it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 1, 2022 Share Posted June 1, 2022 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Go ahead and start it! I just did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted June 2, 2022 Share Posted June 2, 2022 2022 has ended the streak of years with named storm formations before the official start of hurricane season. This breaks a 7-year streak 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted June 4, 2022 Author Share Posted June 4, 2022 never saw this on ensembles all of last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted June 4, 2022 Share Posted June 4, 2022 Why are Atlantic hurricane seasons becoming more active? Per this study, its roughly a 50/50 split between more favorable weather patterns/ENSO etc. and a warming ocean. https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/471/2022/wcd-3-471-2022.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 5, 2022 Share Posted June 5, 2022 Models are being pretty consistent with another gulf storm in about 1-2 weeks 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 DT just went bonkers for hurricane season based on Euro seasonal forecast. Actually said get vacation insurance late July-September rentals. It’s all on his Facebook page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 27 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: DT just went bonkers for hurricane season based on Euro seasonal forecast. Actually said get vacation insurance late July-September rentals. It’s all on his Facebook page. Who is DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Who is DT? David Tolleris, a meteorologist from Richmond, Virginia who runs wxrisk.com. He used to post regularly on these boards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 On 6/4/2022 at 6:12 AM, chubbs said: Why are Atlantic hurricane seasons becoming more active? Per this study, its roughly a 50/50 split between more favorable weather patterns/ENSO etc. and a warming ocean. https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/3/471/2022/wcd-3-471-2022.html Another thing you can add to what you mention, is, we name storms now that would not have been named in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 6, 2022 Share Posted June 6, 2022 The GEFS are doing what they were doing for the supposed pre-Memorial Day storm. I am personally not getting too excited yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 7, 2022 Share Posted June 7, 2022 Wondering if anyone has PPV weather to see the GEFS control run. The op on multiple runs seems to keep anything that would try to develop too close to land to do much, a lot of ensembles again seem more enthusiastic, wondering if this is the perturbed initial conditions or resolution at work. (AccuWeather had only the Euro control run of the ensembles on PPV ~10 years ago, and on the same ICs, resolution does make a difference). Oh, bargain priced model service? WxBell had great graphics but I had a new subscriber price which ran out long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 9, 2022 Share Posted June 9, 2022 Long range goofus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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