Great Snow 1717 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 20 hours ago, thunderbolt said: The people commenting on a 240 GFS or euro for that matter are smart enough to realize it’s fantasy they’re just looking at what the model is showing ..it's along the same lines of men flipping through the SI Swimsuit issue and thinking "future wife"... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 18 hours ago, ldub23 said: 2 into 1? Dont look at the 18Z gfs then. I realize this is highly unlikely to happen. Even in the most active seasons you dont see this. A bit later 2 potential major hurricanes approaching the US coast 600 miles apart on the same day? Call an ambulance for JB!! I think he just fainted. Nah, he's working on his winter forecast for the northeast instead of cold and snowy he is going snowy and cold for the northeast.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 40 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: I'm definitely concerned that every time the development time frame for a system has pushed below 100 hours, the models have dropped it. Happened to the wave before the one at 25W, happening to the current wave, and may happen to the one behind it. Still very dry out there, and every wave coming off of Africa has been stripped of convection by 35-40W. If this doesn't change soon we could see a season bust of epic proportions. yea, and while 12Z has a hurricane its delaying things once more by developing another wave further back in Africa. At this rate it wont be till Oct for the super favorable to get here. As i said before even in the deadest of dead seasons we had waves with showers to track that got across the Atlantic. Lets go for the big records!!! 0/0/0 Sept and no canes. By the way the wave that miraculously develops does so encased in bone dry air. Please, i beg you tropical Gods, give me a shower i can track across the Atlantic. The 2 best quotes of this season will be DT'S post referenced below "August will be Sideways" and JB issuing a "Fast and Furious Watch" 3 weeks ago. Sorry i have to keep adding to my awesomely brilliant posts but i can only grace you with awesomeness 5 times a day In the interest of fairness here is some "good" news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 On 7/15/2022 at 4:01 PM, MJO812 said: DT Well it's been 37 days and the only thing going sideways is... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 19 minutes ago, ldub23 said: yea, and while 12Z has a hurricane its delaying things once more by developing another wave further back in Africa. At this rate it wont be till Oct for the super favorable to get here. As i said before even in the deadest of dead seasons we had waves with showers to track that got across the Atlantic. Lets go for the big records!!! 0/0/0 Sept and no canes. By the way the wave that miraculously develops does so encased in bone dry air. Please, i beg you tropical Gods, give me a shower i can track across the Atlantic. The 2 best quotes of this season will be DT'S post referenced below "August will be Sideways" and JB issuing a "Fast and Furious Watch" 3 weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Below is the latest SAL analysis, this one as of 15Z/11 AM EDT today. Note that the weak E ATL low/wave is actually just to the SE of the SAL as the SAL stops near 28W within the MDR and this wave is at 26W. What are the board's thoughts with regard to SAL as it pertains to this AEW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 I think we'll know by next weekend, if the Antilles bound wave is acting as forecast, and by much earlier, by Wednesday, if the weak cyclone forms, a JB full back blocking SAL/moistening the atmosphere before getting injured is forming. The big ticket storm is developing or it isn't by Saturday or Sunday. This isn't waiting 10 days to see if the model was correct. Homebrew fish storm, if GFS verifies last few days of August, uses a name. Antilles storm would be named by the end of the month, and although 15 day GFS unlikely to be correct (close to the Yucatan), but with heights building over the SE as the storm moves West, Mexico to Central Gulf would be in play if GFS is even just close. Ridge builds back more slowly, Florida is in the game. At hour 384, GFS, to me, is just another ensemble member But August 2.5/1/0.5 would be my opening line if I had a weather casino. 0/0/0 seems unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 This is not an incredibly scientific analysis, but it seems that over the past several weeks waves have come off Africa and languished between 20-30W, with no sustained forward motion cutting through the SAL. The monsoon trough has been fairly active but it almost seems as if vorticities have strung out in an area of disturbed weather rather than punching through as an AOI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, GaWx said: Below is the latest SAL analysis, this one as of 15Z/11 AM EDT today. Note that the weak E ATL low/wave is actually just to the SE of the SAL as the SAL stops near 28W within the MDR and this wave is at 26W. What are the board's thoughts with regard to SAL as it pertains to this AEW? The guidance that tried to develop this quickly has obviously backed off, but I think this one is a legitimate candidate to develop past 60W for a couple reasons. First, it's moving through the basin at a time when we see a favorable MJO and CCKW passage. That raises the odds that when it does find a more favorable environment it is able to fire convection and organize. Second, unlike the other waves thus far, this one has a large moisture envelope. CIMSS has some wonderful tropical products, and one of them tracks PW. While the wave is too broad and too close to the SAL to develop now, it may be able to start its sputtering engine when it is clear of the stable layer. The caveat is that something so broad can take so long to tighten that it runs right through its development window without TC genesis. Time sensitive loop You actually see this fairly consistently on the operational guidance--showing the wave near the Antilles in about a week and still somewhat coherent. It's enough to make development a coin flip but it's a marginal shot at this range absent better information on what shear will look like. I actually like this wave because of what it does for the follow up one. That has a relatively high level of support among ensembles for MDR development because it should be coming in further south into an even more favorable environment as currently modeled. We'll see what happens but I'd actually be shocked if one of those two waves didn't develop. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Day 10 Euro, 3 tropical cyclones and a sub-tropical storm. Waiting although the system closest to ECUSA looks like it wants to fish, I suspect they'll be ensemble members further S. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 The E MDR weak low is now to the west of the CVs, which can clearly be seen here at 18Z/2 PM EDT approaching 30W and is just SE of the end of this MDR SAL outbreak as both move westward: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 The 12Z EPS is somewhat more active with this low just W of the CVs fwiw (centered just W of 40W here): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 I know it is from a wave west of the one now just west of the CVs and may be from the one recently near 40W: ICON keeps developing a low just E of the L Antilles that I can't find on any of the other models. Anyone else notice this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 SAL as of 5PM EDT: image showing the SE edge of it a couple of hundred miles NW of the E Atlantic low That low is near 30W and 16N: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Oh look, the operational GFS trended even weaker with both waves and pushed the timeframe of the actual TC back. What a surprise... Feels like mid-July Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 21, 2022 Share Posted August 21, 2022 Raise your hand if a few weeks ago you thought we’d be sitting on August 21st looking past hour 220 on the 18z GFS run trying to find our “D” storm… It’s going to pick up but my oh my what a lackluster stretch 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said: Raise your hand if a few weeks ago you thought we’d be sitting on August 21st looking past hour 220 on the 18z GFS run trying to find our “D” storm… It’s going to pick up but my oh my what a lackluster stretch I mean to be fair on average we usually only have maybe 2 or 3 named storms by this point. So this isn't too weird. It'll be odd if barely anything forms once we hit September. That's why I never get myself hyped up with forecasts for an active season because there's so many variables that can change and I'd rather look at what's happening a week down the line rather than what could happen months down the line. We also can't expect every year to be like 2020 and 2021, eventually the Atlantic has to take a break from all that record activity and recharge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 1 hour ago, tiger_deF said: Oh look, the operational GFS trended even weaker with both waves and pushed the timeframe of the actual TC back. What a surprise... Feels like mid-July I do believe the 18 Z had a stronger storm than the 12z but I could be wrong When all said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 14 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said: I mean to be fair on average we usually only have maybe 2 or 3 named storms by this point. So this isn't too weird. It'll be odd if barely anything forms once we hit September. That's why I never get myself hyped up with forecasts for an active season because there's so many variables that can change and I'd rather look at what's happening a week down the line rather than what could happen months down the line. We also can't expect every year to be like 2020 and 2021, eventually the Atlantic has to take a break from all that record activity and recharge. Not entirely accurate. We’re way below average on most counts. On average a hurricane forms in the Atlantic by August 11, which were 10 days past and adding to that. Also, yes there have been 3 storms, but none made it 2 days and one was a TS for like 6 hours. Our seasonal ACE is at a anemic, bottom % for this time of year, level. There have been 3 (3!) August’s in history without a named storm, and we are going to be flirting with rarified territory there. I think we’ll get a NS but we’re running out of wiggle room on that front, rapidly. Lastly, this was forecast to be a “hyperactive” year, so seasonal #’s are and will continue to be more scrutinized than say if the forecasts predicted an average season. 1999 is a popular analog, but by the end of this week that year we had 3 cat 4’s. That’s not happening this year. Maybe the script flips but we are starting WAY behind the 8-ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 I'm not giving up on 2 to 3 named storms on one off hour GFS run. But the season looks like it'll struggle to reach 100ACE. Although I still think at least one, probably more than 1, MH in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 4 hours ago, GaWx said: I know it is from a wave west of the one now just west of the CVs and may be from the one recently near 40W: ICON keeps developing a low just E of the L Antilles that I can't find on any of the other models. Anyone else notice this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 As mentioned, the 12Z EPS was more active with the AEW W of the CVs vs the 6Z/0Z. The 18Z EPS is even a bit more active with it in having 5 members (10%) with SLP 1000-1003 mb at hour 144. The 12Z run had only 3 that strong, the 6Z had only 2, and the 0Z had none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 That's just an ugly trend for the hyped wave coming off of Africa. At least our lemon in the MDR is looking marginally more robust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 56 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: That's just an ugly trend for the hyped wave coming off of Africa. At least our lemon in the MDR is looking marginally more robust The only thing ugly about the 0zGFS is for the fish in the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 At DMAX, one can clearly see on this image (as of 06Z on 8/22/22) a pickup in convection centered on the westward moving weak surface low centered near 16N, 30W, as it stays away from the back edge of the SAL, which is just to its NW and N also moving westward: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 The 0z EPS is pretty bullish with three waves in the next 10 days: it starts to develop the current 20% lemon just north of the Caribbean and ends the run with it on a crash course into Florida. The next wave seems a bit messy in the central Atlantic but the third wave looks to be a vigorous one. Looks like the main story of the models is they have no idea how to handle this monsoon trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 13 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: Raise your hand if a few weeks ago you thought we’d be sitting on August 21st looking past hour 220 on the 18z GFS run trying to find our “D” storm… It’s going to pick up but my oh my what a lackluster stretch *Raises hand. I remain very unimpressed. It also looks like the East Pac is going to get active again flooding the Sahara with even more shear. GA is right though, for the first time in a very long time there is a wave in the Sahara with a shower!! Andy brings up a good point. Everything seems to be a "go" and he doesnt even mention the toasty SST'S yet the Sahara remains sitting on the toilet constipated as hell. I have already made that conclusion. NEVER FEAR!!! JB is once again predicting hyperactive. With things so dead slow would 1 TD that quickly dissipates count as hyperactive? Finally i have my preliminary forecast for 2023. I will certainly make revisions but there are some indications the el nino may not be terribly strong so im going with 11/7/3. El nino or not conditions in the Sahara cant be as bad as this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 15 minutes ago, ldub23 said: *Raises hand. I remain very unimpressed. It also looks like the East Pac is going to get active again flooding the Sahara with even more shear. GA is right though, for the first time in a very long time there is a wave in the Sahara with a shower!! Andy brings up a good point. Everything seems to be a "go" and he doesnt even mention the toasty SST'S yet the Sahara remains sitting on the toilet constipated as hell. I have already made that conclusion. NEVER FEAR!!! JB is once again predicting hyperactive. With things so dead slow would 1 TD that quickly dissipates count as hyperactive? Finally i have my preliminary forecast for 2023. I will certainly make revisions but there are some indications the el nino may not be terribly strong so im going with 11/7/3. El nino or not conditions in the Sahara cant be as bad as this season. My early feelings are it will be relatively potent, but probably more of a modoki. I think the problem that plagues seasonal forecasts that incorporate ENSO is that they tend to generalize, and ENSO events can have pretty drastically different impacts around the hemisphere due to not only differences in strength, but the location of where the anomalies are focused. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 Wife and kids will be in Uganda for another month, I'll ask them to send some serviceable waves along the train haha. Wow, had it been quiet... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 The tropics are finally heating up and we have a high amplitude H5 pattern locking in over the CONUS this week. Labor Day weekend plans to be greatly affected. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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