2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 As of hour 192, the 12Z GFS is the least organized since the 0Z 8/16 run for the AEW soon to exit Africa. Also, note that the high to the north is the weakest by a good margin in many runs.

 Also, the 12Z UKMET is still another run with no TC anywhere in the basin out through 144 hours.

 Followup to the above:

 The 12Z GEFS says that the 12Z GFS' much slower movement of this AEW about to emerge from off Africa is a major outlier as it has the most active members far to the WNW (over 1,000 miles) of the 12Z GFS and near where prior runs' most active members are. Also, it doesn't have the weaker high that the 12Z GFS has in the central Atlantic. While not as alarmingly threatening as the 6Z GEFS, it is still another GEFS run with at least several members making it to the western basin with strong TCs.

Edit for later update of 12Z GEFS: 

Other than the scary 6Z GEFS, this 12Z GEFS is about as high a threat to FL/SE US as any other GEFS run to date. So, whereas not as scary, it still suggests the potential threat of something bad. Also, the string of threatening GEFS runs in a row is getting long.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s just weenie fodder. Even if the GFS consistently showed that, it’s so far away that you couldn’t consider it a serious signal absent multi-guidance ensemble support. 
 

The models couldn't even get the forecast "right" for SNE today...despite the "event" being only a few hours away.  Let's face it for the most part the models do a poor job of forecasting but especially so once past a few days.  Considering how quiet it has been it is best to wait until something develops then track it for a few days.  I am not sure why anyone puts any credence in a model(s) depiction that is 10-14 days away.  

[GaWx]

 The 12Z Euro is sticking with the idea that this lead AEW won't develop. So, the GFS suite continues to be largely on an island for that wave.

 The 12Z Euro has no TC anywhere in the basin on its entire 10 day run.

[Floydbuster]

12Z GFS showing a powerful hurricane striking North Gulf Coast around August 28th.

 

[bigtenfan]

The fact that the NHC doesn't even have a 5 day lemon for the lead wave or the second one for that matter tells me  that they at least for now are not buying what the GFS is selling. That can certainly change though if other models support what the GFS issaying.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

The fact that the NHC doesn't even have a 5 day lemon for the lead wave or the second one for that matter tells me  that they at least for now are not buying what the GFS is selling. That can certainly change though if other models support what the GFS issaying.

Hard to buy right now when the tropical Atlantic remains dry and stable. It’ll change, but like I said the other day you may need some sacrificial waves first. 

[Ahoff]

14 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

Curving to the left in the last few frames 

Gotta say, not thrilled with that little low over New Orleans.  I am travelling there on the 1st, so hope that little trend disappears.

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z Euro is sticking with the idea that this lead AEW won't develop. So, the GFS suite continues to be largely on an island for that wave.

 The 12Z Euro has no TC anywhere in the basin on its entire 10 day run.

As  i suspected it  has  no Atlantic  super cane nor  GOM super cane. It does  have a ton of  bone dry air everywhere with rather  high pressures  in the tropics. All i need to do is  look at this picture to know the  pattern shows  zippo signs  of  change. We  have a winter time storm hitting  Maine, low  pressure  locked  over the  NW ATL, chaos  in the west ATL(Trofs and shear) no clouds  in the deep tropics, and oodles doodles  of  bone dry  air. When this satellite  map has a well formed  cane west  of  65 and south of  25 with a west  component  in its direction then wake  me  up. This  is  getting  ridiculous. Unless  or  until the euro can confirm what the  GFS is fantisizing about then its  not  happening.

The time  for hints, signs, and  model storms  is  over. All Clear  on the Western Front.

Can someone  please  let  me  know where  that damn hurricane season switch is? I will gladly turn it  to the  "ON" position. I would  love to be wrong and have something to track other than the  latest dry air surge  or east  coast trof.

WHERE'S THE BEEF??

 

 

Euro says  we are getting  close  to a  0/0/0 Aug.

 

This tweet  is from yesterday. Its  clear  now this wave will croak like  97L did.

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

False Start penalty- GFS. 5 yards repeat 3rd down…

I never bought into developing that lead wave as I mentioned earlier, it will take several waves to moisten up and allow something organized to make it across the MDR. It is just that hostile right now. Euro is about as dry a look as you can get and the EPS ensembles certainly seem to have backed off. I don’t think the MDR season gets going until the 27th, or 10 days from now. The gulf systems, well you try predicting a wave in late August in the gulf. It could either end up a cat 5 or a cluster of showers… That’s hard to predict until you actually have the system in the Gulf and an idea what the upper level winds will do. I don’t trust modeling outside 5 days for anything that’s not already developed as it pertains to the GOM

[Floydbuster]

The NHC doesn't have a lemon because the wave that is likely to form isn't necessarily the one leaving Africa now, it's probably the one following behind. 

Nevertheless, the consistency of the long-range ensembles show the lid peeling off.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

A few Euro ensembles, by location and timing, may be supporting Op GFS on the Gulf system.  Not a ton of support, but...

 

[GaWx]

59 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

False Start penalty- GFS. 5 yards repeat 3rd down…

I never bought into developing that lead wave as I mentioned earlier, it will take several waves to moisten up and allow something organized to make it across the MDR. It is just that hostile right now. Euro is about as dry a look as you can get and the EPS ensembles certainly seem to have backed off. I don’t think the MDR season gets going until the 27th, or 10 days from now. The gulf systems, well you try predicting a wave in late August in the gulf. It could either end up a cat 5 or a cluster of showers… That’s hard to predict until you actually have the system in the Gulf and an idea what the upper level winds will do. I don’t trust modeling outside 5 days for anything that’s not already developed as it pertains to the GOM

 You and wxwatcher have been consistently saying the lead wave wouldn't develop. So, if it doesn't, y'all would be given kudos.

 Indeed, the 12Z EPS, which was already much quieter than the GEFS on prior runs especially considering it has ~51 members, was even quieter.

 From a pure model forecasting standpoint, this is a fun scenario since there's a pretty stark contrast between the sometimes bullish GFS suite and the very bearish Euro and just about all other models. So, will the Euro and other non-GFS models, NorthHills, wxwatcher, and, dare I say, ldub score forecasting points regarding this AEW due to being bearish, or will the GFS suite score a surprise "upset" win in being somewhat bullish on its own? We should know the answer for sure over the next couple of days. I know you and the other bears feel you 100% already have the answer. We'll see!

[GaWx]

18Z GFS has no TC in the entire basin through at least hour 168.

Purely for entertainment: 12Z CFS has a H that goes from NC OB 9/3 to SE MA 9/4.

[GaWx]

Through hour 168, the Happy Hour GEFS is coming in noticeably weaker than recent runs for the AEW now coming off Africa. The strongest member of that batch was at 168 down only to 1007 mb.

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 You and wxwatcher have been consistently saying the lead wave wouldn't develop. So, if it doesn't, y'all would be given kudos.

 Indeed, the 12Z EPS, which was already much quieter than the GEFS on prior runs especially considering it has ~51 members, was even quieter.

 From a pure model forecasting standpoint, this is a fun scenario since there's a pretty stark contrast between the sometimes bullish GFS suite and the very bearish Euro and just about all other models. So, will the Euro and other non-GFS models, NorthHills, wxwatcher, and, dare I say, ldub score forecasting points regarding this AEW due to being bearish, or will the GFS suite score a surprise "upset" win in being somewhat bullish on its own? We should know the answer for sure over the next couple of days. I know you and the other bears feel you 100% already have the answer. We'll see!

This far away from any land impacts, it’s all in good fun to try to figure out which will develop.

I don’t think I’d say 100% won’t develop, but I’m in the camp of it taking another wave or two before the tropical Atlantic opens up. I think the western Atlantic will have had a system or two develop by then. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

18Z GEFS/ECENS look like they are backing off from the BoC lemon.  It was, before, at best, a low end TS, now it looks like the high end is an Invest.  Just one set of ensembles, but it looks like it is LWing...

[WxWatcher007]

I went back to 2017 to plot OHC at this time in the basin. 

[Floydbuster]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I went back to 2017 to plot OHC at this time in the basin. 

Each year looks essentially the same to me.

[GaWx]

 0Z GFS hour 156 is the weakest in many runs regarding the lead AEW. Also, this is continuing a three run in a row trend toward weak. It seems like the GFS is giving into the Euro and other models regarding this AEW though I'm not 100% certain about this yet. Other opinions?

Update: The 0Z GFS has no TC in the entire basin through 240 and has the least activity since the 0Z 8/16 run.

0Z UKMET is another with no TC through 144 hours

[so_whats_happening]

56 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 0Z GFS hour 156 is the weakest in many runs regarding the lead AEW. Also, this is continuing a three run in a row trend toward weak. It seems like the GFS is giving into the Euro and other models regarding this AEW though I'm not 100% certain about this yet. Other opinions?

Update: The 0Z GFS has no TC in the entire basin through 240 and has the least activity since the 0Z 8/16 run.

Think this lead system is the sacrifice storm may get to a TS but will have to watch how the ULL interact in the Atlantic, GEM also has a weak system and another potential to watch in western Caribbean/ GOM area. Either way both look to take it to about the Antilles area by Day 10

[GaWx]

0Z GEFS is still rather active near FL/Gulf very late month. fwiw.

0Z Euro: no TC anywhere during entire run.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Super Nino dead year.  This year, Cold ENSO year that seems to be acting like a warm once.  Last HGX CWA major.

[cptcatz]

GFS operational may have eased up but the ensembles still rock Florida and the Gulf Coast in this mornings 06z run. 

[Windspeed]

GFS operational may have eased up but the ensembles still rock Florida and the Gulf Coast in this mornings 06z run. 

Beating a dead horse about this on every seasonal thread this time of year, but long range operationals are only good for glancing at their simulated patterns and not worth latching onto specific system fodder. That being anything 200 hrs out especially. The ensemble suites are far better for eyeballing potential systems that have not developed yet. That being said, it does look like things are about to come alive, right on cue. It still looks like things will become more favorable after the 21st. And there is notable low-shear envelopes across the basin to play with. We shall see.

[NorthHillsWx]

25 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

45 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

GFS operational may have eased up but the ensembles still rock Florida and the Gulf Coast in this mornings 06z run. 

Beating a dead horse about this on every seasonal thread this time of year, but long range operationals are only good for glancing at their simulated patterns and not worth latching onto specific system fodder. That being anything 200 hrs out especially. The ensemble suites are far better for eyeballing potential systems that have not developed yet. That being said, it does look like things are about to come alive, right on cue. It still looks like things will become more favorable after the 21st. And there is notable low-shear envelopes across the basin to play with. We shall see.

GEFS vs EPS. Battle of the titans

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, cptcatz said:

GFS operational may have eased up but the ensembles still rock Florida and the Gulf Coast in this mornings 06z run. 

 For FL/Gulf coast, this 6Z GEFS is back to being close to the most active GEFS run yet, which was previously the 6Z GEFS from yesterday.

 But there's something a bit different about this run. Whereas the other active late month runs near FL were dominated by the AEW currently just off Africa and this newest one also has some activity from that AEW, this one is more dominated by something that seems to come off of S America (near Suriname) in only 72 hours (8/21), which is well in front of the wave now just off Africa. So, I wonder whether or not these TCs that originate off S America are bogus since they hadn't shown up before. Any opinions?

 Here's the progression of that area from off of S America:

96 hours: just N of S America

 

120 hours: nearing Windwards

 

144 hours: Windwards

 

168 hours: E Caribbean

 

192 hours: PR/Hispaniola

 

216 hours: Hispaniola/Cuba

 

240 hours: Cuba/Bahamas

 

264 hours: W Cuba/FL

[WxWatcher007]

Maybe I've cracked or gone full weenie, but I'm still intrigued by the lemon that's now trekking over Central America and southern Mexico. The wave has done a good job of having persistent convection which peaks during the diurnal cycle. It's not organized, but there's modest vorticity. 

There is some shear present, and I'm not sure how much remains when it gets to the BOC late tonight/early tomorrow. I really do think if this convective cycle continues this one has a legit chance of development. It may need some help with a low developing further east to buy more time before land interaction. 

Maybe I'm just wrong for the 14,000th time this season  

I know everyone likes the potential of the MDR stuff, but homebrew is where it's at for me. Good forecasting test. 

 

[Normandy]

Not all all crazy for watching this homebrew wave.  Its further north than modeled and already has great vorticity.

[GaWx]

 I went all of the way back to 1930 and found no storm with an origination and track similar to what the 6Z GEFS did with many members from off of S America starting in 72 hours that then went on to hit/threaten FL/Gulf coast (per my prior post) in any month. So, I'm calling this bogus at this point.

Edit: 12Z GEFS is less active than 6Z GEFS off of S America. Likely was bogus.

[thunderbolt]

You know what else is  Kind of odd is that there’s no storms in the western Pacific eastern Pacific Atlantic golf nowhere to be found all is quiet All the basins are Crickets