Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 I am actually wondering, based on mostly >1005 mb ensemble members, why they didn't wait on the lemon since it'll be over land (or barely catch some water N of Honduras) soon and won't develop before the BoC. It has the 'right' look to it though when I loop it but they could have waited a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Active look again today on the operational and ensemble guidance, and it’s not stuck at the end of the runs. Growing confidence the lid is primed to come off as early as this weekend starting with the BOC disturbance. Yep. Buckle up. Season incoming. May not live up to hyperactive expectations but the look beginning in a week, complete with a blocking high across the Atlantic, means land interaction is higher than normal. I’d focus on SW gulf areas and east coast through first week of September as possible areas for TC impact. Too much troughiness/shear in northern gulf but I am increasingly worried for the Carolina’s. Going to be praying for some recurved in a couple weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 no shear 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 32 minutes ago, StruThiO said: no shear Yeah, that's a concern I have regarding the lead AEW wave that will start to emerge within 24 hours: shear is low and is projected to remain low in much of the E and C MDR for a good # of days. In addition and somewhat related: steering by high pressure that builds westward to its north is progged to prevent an early safe recurve and thus would likely mean a move far west into the basin, a potentially very dangerous scenario IF dry air doesn't keep it weak as suggested by various ens members as well as a couple of GFS runs. It being La Nina and August (not as high a % of safe recurves of E MDR TCs for both categories) add to the concern. Here's an updated satellite pic (IR) that shows similar to the prior pic that there may already be a weak circulation over far SW Mali despite convection having lightened up tonight: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 0z GFS going nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 ^The 0Z GFS on 8/30 hits Bermuda with the very dangerous right front quadrant of a major H. That makes 3 of the last 9 GFS runs with a H in the western Atlantic from the soon to emerge AEW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Curving to the left in the last few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Bell rings in 3 days, Weenies doubted the switch flip, bust casters crying 0z GFS shows a parade of hurricanes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
so_whats_happening Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Gotta admit it was a little later than I expected but yea this is about to get interesting. The system in the Gulf/ Caribbean comes from the Central American Gyre and then just sits along the coast for a few days. It only takes one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 4 hours ago, tiger_deF said: 0z GFS going nuts East coast is a target with waves coming off further north than usual and the subtropical ridge anchored north of its typical position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 4 hours ago, tiger_deF said: 0z GFS going nuts Lets see what it looks like at 06Z. Just need the wheel to be a bit stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Lets see what it looks like at 06Z. Just need the wheel to be a bit stronger. 06z goes just as nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 7 hours ago, GaWx said: ^The 0Z GFS on 8/30 hits Bermuda with the very dangerous right front quadrant of a major H. That makes 3 of the last 9 GFS runs with a H in the western Atlantic from the soon to emerge AEW. One concerning point is that while the 06z run still recurves on the OP the GEFS is much further west 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 ^GEFS goes ham on south Florida. August 25 will mark the 17 year anniversary of Hurricane Katrina making landfall, the last time a hurricane has made landfall on the east coast of Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 For as threatening as the GFS and the GEFS looks to be , they appear to be alone. Unless i am missing something I see little if any support from from the Euro or the EPS, the CMC or the ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cat Lady Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, bigtenfan said: For as threatening as the GFS and the GEFS looks to be they appear to be alone. Unless i am missing something it I see little if any support from from the Euro or the EPS, the CMC or the ICON. I'm also trying to temper my expectations with this, but balancing it with the terrible Euro performance over the past 2 years when it comes to formation. Basin conditions look good, and its unlikely that *nothing* will happen in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Gfs going nuts with the tropics. It's that time of the year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 51 minutes ago, shaggy said: One concerning point is that while the 06z run still recurves on the OP the GEFS is much further west Ensembles versus Op, I always wonder if resolution makes a difference. AccuWeather had the control ensemble versus the op for the Euro, same initial conditions, and by 5 or 6 days, the resolution changes thing. AccuWeather still probably has the control run and the Op In the day, JB asserted the 10 year ago GFS versus the Euro, the 10 year old GFS had a poleward bias. GFS guidance, which NHC followed for a couple of days, 2008 Ike was going to recurve East of Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 This will get me weenie tagged by Forky, and there is an element of wishcasting, I need the rain (Texas), but 5 day lemon maybe, by satellite, a smidge East of where models were initialized. WxNerds pic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 It’s still disorganized obviously, but that wave in the western Caribbean has held convection together nicely. The only things holding it back are land interaction and some shear to the north. We’ll see how it looks after the Yucatán, but this is as good a candidate as any for homebrew development. Wherever a center forms would be critical to TC genesis chances and eventual track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 3 hours ago, shaggy said: One concerning point is that while the 06z run still recurves on the OP the GEFS is much further west This 6Z GEFS replaces yesterday's 12Z GEFS as the most threatening run to date of the season to the US. It could still be off, but verbatim this is getting more worrisome. Also, the 6Z GFS is the 4th of the last 10 and second in a row with a H in the western Atlantic. Almost all of these modeled western basin GFS/GEFS hurricanes are from the AEW about to leave Africa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 As of hour 192, the 12Z GFS is the least organized since the 0Z 8/16 run for the AEW soon to exit Africa. Also, note that the high to the north is the weakest by a good margin in many runs. Also, the 12Z UKMET is still another run with no TC anywhere in the basin out through 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 Hour 252 still likes the TC in the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 See you in November iduB! The bell has been rung. GFS nails the Gulf Coast with the seasons first major. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, AChilders said: Hour 252 still likes the TC in the gulf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 That’s just weenie fodder. Even if the GFS consistently showed that, it’s so far away that you couldn’t consider it a serious signal absent multi-guidance ensemble support. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 What's the point of looking at models then? Why are we even here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, Normandy said: See you in November iduB! The bell has been rung. GFS nails the Gulf Coast with the seasons first major. We will see. The Atlantic super cane is a "ghost" of its former self at 12Z and if i remember correctly back in June the GFS insisted a major cane was going to hit the gulf coast. It didnt form, much less hit anything.. Mid day Euro will be out shortly. If it shows nothing at 240 then its doubtful anything of note will form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Normandy said: What's the point of looking at models then? Why are we even here? I’m just saying buyer beware. I love the weenie stuff too but there is such a thing as too much drugs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 17, 2022 Share Posted August 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Normandy said: What's the point of looking at models then? Why are we even here? Weather forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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