2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[WxWatcher007]

Models trying to pick up on a Bay of Campeche disturbance trying to develop in a few days. Generally, that tends to be a favorable environment with the concave nature of the bay, so that alone makes it something to keep a casual eye on. 

[WxWatcher007]

Like @NorthHillsWxstated, it’s going to take a little more time in the MDR, but we’re starting to see signals on the ensembles that aren’t the classic “perpetually ten days away” type pattern. SAL is on the decline in the basin (though still rough to be sure) and we’re entering the peak with a CCKW/MJO tailwind.

I’m still wary of another false start signal, but if the basin can’t start popping some appetizers in the next ten days and at least one entree by the end of the month, that’d be bad for those like me that expect a solidly above average NS and ACE season. 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z EPS is one of the most threatening runs yet to the Caribbean and US from an MDR system. This is from an AEW that comes off Africa late this week and first develops into a TC on many members a couple of days later near 30-40W. The slightly odd thing is that the Euro operational isn't doing anything with this earlier wave and hasn't been on earlier runs as it has had only a subsequent AEW develop a sfc low.

 Also, the 12Z GEFS has some members from this same wave that threaten the W basin.

 12Z 8/15/22 EPS 360:

[NorthHillsWx]

Part of me wants August to officially go 0-0-0 then have September explode. Would be a very interesting analog to have in our back pocket in the coming years 

By explode I don’t mean I want death and destruction, but activity to track from a meteorological sense. I know there would be pushback to that statement so here’s your disclaimer 

[Yanksfan]

15 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Part of me wants August to officially go 0-0-0 then have September explode. Would be a very interesting analog to have in our back pocket in the coming years 

By explode I don’t mean I want death and destruction, but activity to track from a meteorological sense. I know there would be pushback to that statement so here’s your disclaimer 

Part of me wants a Cat 4 cane just off the VA capes roll up the coastline. Just think of the angst this board would have to endure.

[GaWx]

 Regarding that lead wave on the 12Z EPS and GEFS (posted elsewhere from a fellow poster from Andy Hazelton), Andy is describing it as mostly an ITCZ formation as opposed to just a simple AEW although I would assume something coming off Africa is needed as a spark to set it off:

 

 

[GaWx]

 From the 18Z GFS, here is a weak sfc low near 40W at hour 228 that emanates from energy coming off Africa on Saturday (8/20) and appears to me to be the same source that formed those strong TCs on the 12Z EPS and GEFS that threatened the W basin late this month: it goes quite far west as the high to the north goes west with it and keeps it from recurving, but the wave stays weak and thus never amounts to anything on this run. Regardless, I'll probably be focusing on this wave on subsequent GFS/Euro op/ens runs:

 

[cptcatz]

Looks like Euro/EPS and GFS/GFES are both in agreement that potentially three waves could develop by the end of August. Waves come off around Aug 20, 24, and another around the 29th that both models are seeing. I suppose we're gonna be sone quietness from ldub...

[Torch Tiger]

30 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Looks like Euro/EPS and GFS/GFES are both in agreement that potentially three waves could develop by the end of August. Waves come off around Aug 20, 24, and another around the 29th that both models are seeing. I suppose we're gonna be sone quietness from ldub...

ldub is irrelevant, though I did find Rainstorm mildly amusing with the absurdity of their bad calls  back in the Eastern days. lol  

On topic, I'd probably give at least one of those waves a chance at making it across. But I'd doubt there would be multiple threats prior to early Sept.

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

On topic, I'd probably give at least one of those waves a chance at making it across. But I'd doubt there would be multiple threats prior to early Sept.

Agree. If we do see multiple systems, I think they develop in different parts of the broader basin. The environment just isn’t there yet in the central and eastern Atlantic for multiple spin ups in rapid succession.

That’s why I think the lead wave is least likely to develop, @GaWx. Much like the failed 97L, you often want a sacrificial one to moisten the environment ahead. Honestly though, we’re starting to get to the point in the season where if an AEW can survive it has a chance to develop in the western Atlantic and Gulf. We’ve had a lot of those in recent years. 
 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 15 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave currently located over the central Caribbean Sea is 
forecast to move across Central America and emerge over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico, where an area of low pressure could 
form by the end of this week. Some gradual development of this 
system is possible thereafter as it moves slowly to the northwest or 
north-northwest over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico by this 
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[GaWx]

Lmao, I need to try again as I somehow accidentally posted a link to a Mike Ventrice tweet that had nothing to do with a Andy Hazelton tweet I meant to link to:

 Regarding that lead wave on the 12Z EPS and GEFS (posted elsewhere from a fellow poster from Andy Hazelton), Andy is describing it as mostly an ITCZ formation as opposed to just a simple AEW although I would assume something coming off Africa is needed as a spark to set it off:

 

[ldub23]

0Z not all that thrilling for phase 2 and season peak. Hints and signs though!!

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

21 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Several points. If they dont  get  close to land them im still right because the  preseason forecasts had higher than normal chances  for a season of  note. If all we get  is  climo or  less  im right  because this was supposed to be at  least more active than normal if  not  hyperactive. And finally, 06Z GFS put the  lid  back on with tons  of dry air and higher than normal pressures  in the  MDR. And, i dont  give a rats rear end  about some weak low that forms at  33N 54W and  zippity doo-dahs NE. Here  is the 06 GFS with the  lid  firmly  back on.

 

 

Are a few storms  going to form between now and Oct 01(the season will have an early  end)? Sure, but  i am quite  confident the preseason forecasts are going to fall flat  on their  faces. With this  pattern the waves will come  off way too far  north to even matter and any wave that manages to get  into the Sahara has a doubtful future at  best. We  have  one  hell of a TUTT out there as well.  Looking at that  pattern any miracle storm that does form in the  MDR  is  bebopping  out to sea so its  meaningless. Now, keeping alive the hopes for  a  1 storm season of  note we need to look at the high pressure over the  Northeast. IF that  can hold thru mid Sept  then we  need to hope  something can get going in the far western basin under the ridge.

 

 

 

*******Im not  being a jerk i simply can not reply to people  here because  i can only  post  5 times a day. I can talk via  PM.

Early season end idea.  First, for background, the Texas season ends right about on the Equinox.  Season over, its done.  Except Jerry in 1989, wimpy storm.  Or 1949, East Pac storm pulled into the Gulf, Freeport, Texas, as a strengthening Cat 2 and a few more hours over water, a major.

Part of the reason Texas season ends, (except for once every 50 years or so when it doesn't) is Westerlies at mid levels.  Nothing about an East Coast trough means the Caribbean can't be active, any storm moving N into the Gulf usually gets turned N, then NE.  Once in the Gulf, a landfall somewhere is guaranteed.

 

Your East Coast trough will sometimes move out and reform, not always in the exact same place and shortwaves riding over from the ridge to its W may deepen it to a negative trough, so storms that pass over or East of Cuba can do some variation of Sandy, including Virginia Beach.  Caribbean to SW Gulf Lemon, GFS and Euro see it, not big ticket because it hits Mexico or Deep South Texas before it can strengthen much.  But 2 days of nothing and another Lemon?

[cptcatz]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

0Z not all that thrilling for phase 2 and season peak. Hints and signs though!!

Aaaand 06Z back to showing 3-1-1 in the MDR by end of August. 

[olafminesaw]

You love to see it...

 

[MJO812]

44 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Aaaand 06Z back to showing 3-1-1 in the MDR by end of August. 

Patience is virtue

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Patience is virtue

 

The last week of August has consistently been shown to become more active per the ensembles. Do not live and die by individual GFS runs. This tropical season feels more like watching a potential southeast snowstorm on these boards…

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The last week of August has consistently been shown to become more active per the ensembles. Do not live and die by individual GFS runs. This tropical season feels more like watching a potential southeast snowstorm on these boards…

It's only 1 poster

[SnoSki14]

Ensembles clearly sensing a burst of activity soon and right on cue too. 

Lid always comes off after the 20th. 

[Seminole]

If the disintegration of the Bermuda High in the later GFS runs comes to fruition it likely means any CV spin ups will be fish storms.  

[GaWx]

On 8/16/2022 at 7:28 AM, cptcatz said:

Aaaand 06Z back to showing 3-1-1 in the MDR by end of August. 

 Just to clarify for those who may not be following closely, the MH on the 6Z GFS is from the same wave that the GFS from 5 runs earlier (0Z of 8/15/22) had as a hurricane hitting the Leewards on 8/29-30. Energy/moisture that comes off Africa to lead to this developing per the 6Z GFS manifests itself as convection that is currently already centered over SW Mali near 7W, 12N, and already starts emerging from Africa tomorrow evening near 12N just as it did on yesterday's 0Z run. Because operational runs generally have little reliability going too far out in time, I think it is important to note how soon the seed from this potential trouble hits water and how far west it already is in Africa so that it can be followed closely. I just checked the satellite pic and convection can clearly be seen on IR over SW Mali.

 

[Floydbuster]

6 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

You love to see it...

 

 

I remember in 2000, the only coverage of Cat 4 Hurricane Keith offshore Belize was a blurb on CNN and the tropical updates on the Weather Channel. Nowadays, you have CNN articles about 384 hour GFS models.

Katrina changed everything. Pre-Katrina, you would have never seen a news article about an obscure long-range weather model.

[ldub23]

12Z the  major  hurricane turned into a  1010mb  nothing. 2 other weak lows. For  peak season this  is rather  pathetic. There  is also a potent TUTT which is  no doubt why the  monster cane turned into a tame teletubby.

 

 

This  is Sept 01 with absolutely  nothing  of  note. At  least  at  06Z you could see the edge  of the  phantom cane in the lower right.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

 Just to clarify for those who may not be following closely, the MH on the 6Z GFS is from the same wave that the GFS from 5 runs earlier (0Z of 8/15/22) had as a hurricane hitting the Leewards on 8/29-30. Energy/moisture that comes off Africa to lead to this developing per the 6Z GFS manifests itself as convection that is currently already centered over SW Mali near 7W, 12N, and already starts emerging from Africa tomorrow evening near 12N just as it did on yesterday's 0Z run. Because operational runs generally have little reliability going too far out in time, I think it is important to note how soon the seed from this potential trouble hits water and how far west it already is in Africa so that it can be followed closely. I just checked the satellite pic and convection can clearly be seen on IR over SW Mali.

Edit:  Following up, here is a 1 PM EDT (17Z) sat. pic clearly showing the AEW I was referring to with convection over SW Mali. The main question about this one imho is not so much shear but instead as others have been saying whether or not dryness will keep it from developing much. Steering looks to take whatever this becomes far west into the basin.

Mali and Senegal has RAOB stations, but it is bit like following a storm still over the Pacific, most of the data is remote gathered (and African surface obs), with initialization filling in gaps with prior run 6 hour forecast ( I think.  Be gentle if I'm wrong).  Mali wave 'looks' good on the satellite.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

18 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

 

I remember in 2000, the only coverage of Cat 4 Hurricane Keith offshore Belize was a blurb on CNN and the tropical updates on the Weather Channel. Nowadays, you have CNN articles about 384 hour GFS models.

Katrina changed everything. Pre-Katrina, you would have never seen a news article about an obscure long-range weather model.

12 days out 10 day Euro made it clear Sandy was not going to escape.  People still talk about that, because there are few other 240 hour home run model runs  Euro appears to have been adjusted in 10 years, it is no longer the best model in the tropics.  GFS sees tropical systems earlier...

 

Edit to Add: Mongo is just a pawn on this forum, but beyond 240 hour op models to prove the basin is dead posts should just be disappeared by a mod.  If LW wants to prove dead at 282 or 330, he or she should at least be using ensemble spaghetti unless he or she wants to prove every storm will fish, ensemble means are better for me at 500 mb..

[GaWx]

9 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Mali and Senegal has RAOB stations, but it is bit like following a storm still over the Pacific, most of the data is remote gathered (and African surface obs), with initialization filling in gaps with prior run 6 hour forecast ( I think.  Be gentle if I'm wrong).  Mali wave 'looks' good on the satellite.

Thanks, Ed. The 12Z GEFS is pretty active with this wave as there are strong members between 47W and 58W on 8/25 (the one near 60W is not from this wave):

[cptcatz]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

12Z the  major  hurricane turned into a  1010mb  nothing. 2 other weak lows. For  peak season this  is rather  pathetic. There  is also a potent TUTT which is  no doubt why the  monster cane turned into a tame teletubby.

The 12Z GFS ensembles are still blasting the east coast...

[GaWx]

17 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

The 12Z GFS ensembles are still blasting the east coast...

 Regarding this:

 Among other locations affected out of the 31 or so members, there are 3 12Z GEFS members with Hs that later directly affect PR. Also, there are 4 that later landfall on the SE CONUS as cat 2+ Hs along with several others threatening at the end of the run. If not the most threatening GEFS run to date for the US, I think this run almost has to be close to the worst run yet this season. These are almost 100% from that AEW that is currently over SW Mali and soon to emerge from Africa. Keep a watchful eye on it for ~8/25+ in the Caribbean and ~8/29+ in the CONUS. Hopefully it will not end up a problem, of course, and be careful what you wish for (not that wishing has any effect)!

[WxWatcher007]

Ensembles continue to like TC genesis in the BOC in a few days.

[WxWatcher007]

Active look again today on the operational and ensemble guidance, and it’s not stuck at the end of the runs. Growing confidence the lid is primed to come off as early as this weekend starting with the BOC disturbance.