2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Kevin Reilly]

19 hours ago, GaWx said:

 All 3 major 0Z models form a sfc low off the SE US coast by early next week that then heads to the Maine/Maritimes area Wed/Thu. This has been hinted at for a week or longer. Anyone else watching this? This could become the next NS.

That system off the East Coast early next week is more of mid latitude storm like a winter pattern doubt that becomes tropical and the 18z models have really backed off on that moving it further south and more of an ENE trajectory more out to sea from the Carolina coast. The models have been handling this very poorly at this time. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Looking at ensembles, is it between the GFS and Euro, as far as ensembles go, as far as deciding a low should appear or not.  GEFS on Weathernerds will show obvious non-tropical lows inland, ECENS seem better screened for non-tropical lows.  Nothing on Weathernerds says only TC lows, but ECENS show only tropical lows.  18Z GFS, still a boatload of enesembles showing the low, none on the Euro ensembles.  See T=6 (labelled as hour zero, I read the legend wrong.  Edit- no, I read one, and the default first display seems different, or WxN defaults to show color page) for 12Z, but same on 18Z, GEFS have lows over Wisconsin which are obviously not tropical.  Model, WxNers website, no se.  I've noticed, but with a low that looks frontal on MSLP on the models, it sort of matters comparing the two major model ensembles.

[GaWx]

The 0Z GFS, Euro, and UKMET have backed way off on the strong low showing up at 12Z going into the NE US. The UKMET backed off from the 12Z's hour 102 TC genesis.

[ldub23]

We are  in phase 2 at the  peak of the season(aug/sept) and  not a single  cane  is forecast  by any model. This  is why i think Sept will be  below  normal. Phase 2 will be gone  by  mid sept, if  not  sooner.

 

At  least  phase 2 is  producing another cane  in the east  pac.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, ldub23 said:

We are  in phase 2 at the  peak of the season(aug/sept) and  not a single  cane  is forecast  by any model. This  is why i think Sept will be  below  normal. Phase 2 will be gone  by  mid sept, if  not  sooner.

Op Euro, I see a potential Gulf system of tropical origin that with a slight change in initial location and direction would probably develop and a 9-10 day system *probably* 2 far North to crush Norfolk, VA (or anywhere in North America), but that is 10 days away.  Do you like to be depressing?  Do you think if you always say nothing "good" is coming you've protected yourself from disappointment?  It is the opposite of posting a rando ensemble member is hitting Miami as a Cat 5, except it really isn't.  The rando ensemble member or ICON poster would be more interesting...

[cptcatz]

Euro/EPS and CMC both seeing a solid wave emerging Africa in 10 days. Gotta see if they stick with it and if GFS gets on board, maybe this will finally be the start of the season. 

[Normandy]

Might have another homebrew situation occurring of the Great Bend of Florida.  This one would have more water in front of it

[GaWx]

- I'm still sticking with 120 for my ACE prediction that goes back to late July. 

- I remain most concerned about the Gulf coast of FL for the highest risk this season per the eight 3rd year La Niña analogs since every one had significant to major impact there.

- No TC genesis forecasted by the 12Z UKMET anywhere in the basin.

- 12Z model consensus says we'll never know for sure whether yesterday's 12Z consensus of a strong storm into NE would have gotten a name due to possibly being a STS because today's 12Z consensus has only a significantly weaker system now.

- If we were to go another week or so with both nothing new as well as nothing imminent on model consensus, my ACE forecast would by then have been reduced from 120.

[cptcatz]

12z euro sticking with that wave...

[cptcatz]

Here we go, the MDR is waking up

[yoda]

 

 

[GaWx]

16 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Here we go, the MDR is waking up

 Taking this 12Z EPS run out to 360, the most concentrated area of lower pressure is within the 40-50 W region with the most active members moving WNW near 15N and thus not showing any obvious sign of an early recurve by that point. If there were to be a TC near 15N, 45W, moving WNW on 8/29 and with it being La Nina, that would potentially be dangerous for somewhere on the US east coast though a subsequent safe recurve would still be in the typical mix of possibilities from that location.

 There's then also an active followup wave with the most active members just west of the CV Islands. 

 

 

[GaWx]

 The 18Z GEFS is rather active with the AEW coming off on 8/19 fwiw. This is the AEW preceding the one that the Euro/EPS developed.

[StruThiO]

Lid's coming off

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, StruThiO said:

Lid's coming off

 Yep, the models may be starting to play catch up like they sometimes do when the lid comes off. The developed Euro AEW didn't move offshore til 8/22. The 0Z GFS looks like it is at least incorporating energy moving off on 8/19 (similar to 18Z GFS) and already has a weak surface low SW of the CV Islands on 8/20. Then it looks like it gets new energy coming off Africa on 8/21 that somehow combines with it on 8/22. It then gets to 40W on 8/24, the day that the Euro low is much further east near 27W. The GFS looks weird with this evolution, but if there really is going to be a low near 40W on 8/24 still that far south, this looks like it could be a real threat as it does do so at the end of the run.

 The 0Z UKMET has no TC through 144 (0Z on 8/21)  just like it's prior run.

 I'm sticking with 3 NS this month.

[GaWx]

The 0Z Euro is consistent with recent Euro runs in having a CV sfc low on 8/24 (day 9) although the low is weaker and the high to the north isn't as strong. At hour 240 (8/25 0Z), it barely moves and is still near the CVs on the Euro although there's a small piece well in front. The 0Z GFS at 240 is way west of the Euro's main low (past 40W) with its lead low:

 0Z Euro 240: low still only near CVs

 0Z GFS 240: low already past 40W and in a more threatening position

[CheeselandSkies]

How's that 0/0/0 August looking, @ldub23?

[StormchaserChuck!]

Seems we are due after day 15, when models have an El Nino 500mb pattern until Sept1st at least..

[ldub23]

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

How's that 0/0/0 August looking, @ldub23?

Several points. If they dont  get  close to land them im still right because the  preseason forecasts had higher than normal chances  for a season of  note. If all we get  is  climo or  less  im right  because this was supposed to be at  least more active than normal if  not  hyperactive. And finally, 06Z GFS put the  lid  back on with tons  of dry air and higher than normal pressures  in the  MDR. And, i dont  give a rats rear end  about some weak low that forms at  33N 54W and  zippity doo-dahs NE. Here  is the 06 GFS with the  lid  firmly  back on.

 

 

Are a few storms  going to form between now and Oct 01(the season will have an early  end)? Sure, but  i am quite  confident the preseason forecasts are going to fall flat  on their  faces. With this  pattern the waves will come  off way too far  north to even matter and any wave that manages to get  into the Sahara has a doubtful future at  best. We  have  one  hell of a TUTT out there as well.  Looking at that  pattern any miracle storm that does form in the  MDR  is  bebopping  out to sea so its  meaningless. Now, keeping alive the hopes for  a  1 storm season of  note we need to look at the high pressure over the  Northeast. IF that  can hold thru mid Sept  then we  need to hope  something can get going in the far western basin under the ridge.

 

 

 

*******Im not  being a jerk i simply can not reply to people  here because  i can only  post  5 times a day. I can talk via  PM.

[SnowenOutThere]

51 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

If they dont  get  close to land them im still right

The goalposts have been moved, getting nervous?

[Drummer]

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

How's that 0/0/0 August looking, @ldub23?

Great, you jinxed it.

[WxWatcher007]

Honesty, despite the signal for things to pick up, I’m in show me mode. There have been enough false starts this season. 

[bigtenfan]

This is starting to look like winter weather forecasting in the NE and  Mid Atlantic the last few years.  The pattern change was always 10-16  days away. and before you knew it, it was March .

That said i do believe that there will be activity  during peak season in one way shape or form. Experts: correct me if I am wrong but La Nina years usually produce early east coast troughs . If that is the case then would that produce an early end to the season?

[GaWx]

32 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

This is starting to look like winter weather forecasting in the NE and  Mid Atlantic the last few years.  The pattern change was always 10-16  days away. and before you knew it, it was March .

That said i do believe that there will be activity  during peak season in one way shape or form. Experts: correct me if I am wrong but La Nina years usually produce early east coast troughs . If that is the case then would that produce an early end to the season?

El Niño years, not La Niña years, often have quiet seasons, especially in the MDR and often including not that much activity late. However, this season so far has been behaving during a good portion of it a bit like a typical El Niño (shear and dry air in MDR) more than like a typical La Niña fwiw.

 I believe El Niño years tend to have the westerlies drop down somewhat sooner on average vs La Niña years although it may be hard to prove this without hard data.

 It is interesting to see the "mood swings" from one operational GFS/Euro to the next. Too much imho in both directions (not just at this forum) considering the lack of reliability.

[NorthHillsWx]

We probably will have a situation where the first couple stronger waves that make it off the African coast act like sacrifices to moisten the environment. It cannot be understated how dry the MDR has been and still is. Nothing is making it through right now. Those storms on the GFS last night are a perfect example. They were almost annular in how the model depicted them and that was the models reaction to them being surrounded by dry air. Most recent run snuffs them out before they get going, much more likely. We will need at least 2 waves to make it most of the the way across the MDR to pave the way for something more organized. That recirculating pool of dry air is quite literally choking out this season 

[Floydbuster]

The O0Z GFS showed three hurricanes off Africa, lined up like a train.

Some of the ridging setup looks potentially dangerous for the SE US coast in some of the long-range runs. Take with a grain of salt, but still.

[NorthHillsWx]

The wave train off Africa seems to really get going after the 24th. Conditions still do not appear too favorable based on current modeling (take with a huge grain of salt and I don’t care that the GFS has a hurricane on it at the end of the run) but the fact more and stronger waves will be moving off the African coast in peak climo means our odds of the Atlantic season getting started are significantly increasing the last week of the month. EPS and GEFS also seem to be sniffing this period out. I wouldn’t hype it but I think it’s very probable we get 1-2 named systems before the month is out 

[GaWx]

I just went with the genesis of 6 NS in September. Why?

1. 3rd year Niña analog of 2000 had 7, but ACE was much higher as of 8/15 in 2000 due to Alberto and 7 was by far largest # of Sept. NS geneses for a 3rd year La Niña. So, I reduced the 7 slightly.

2. Recent La Niña years' #s in Sept: 8, 9, 4, 5...these average 6.5 Sept. geneses.

3. Low ACE as of 8/15 analogs for non-El Nino since 1995: Sept geneses were 
6, 3, 4, 7, 7.....these average 5.4 in Sept.

 Considering all of the above, I was deciding between 5 and 6 and went with 6.

 So, I now have 3 in Aug and 6 in Sep to go with the 3 we already have. So, I'm currently at 12 NS through 9/30/22.

 

[StruThiO]

[GaWx]

12Z EPS 228 vs 0Z EPS 240 for two MDR areas:

- still has good number of members with E MDR low, the one recent Euro ops have been developing, but they're still mostly weak and there aren't quite as many members. They are more spread out.
- has a bit more activity in the 45-60W region and this includes a few more of TS strength/1,000 mb or lower; the surface high to the north is a bit stronger and seems to be building westward above the low; thus, this looks like the potentially more dangerous of the two 12Z EPS MDR systems to me. Many of the members for this more westward potential form near 40W on or near 8/22. So, this would seemingly be from an AEW coming off ~8/18-20...so late this week look off Africa and see how it looks! This could be a sneaky one and is the AEW before the one the Euro ops have been developing.

 That's my take fwiw. It is worth the price you paid for it.