bigtenfan Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 The GFS has had this for something like 15 runs in a row while none of the other models have anything like this. Either: The GFS is on to a 2012 Sandy like coup that gave the Euro the reputation that it had OR It is on to a 2015 Mid Atlantic Blizzard forecast that the Euro was alone on that never materialized and started the Euro's downward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 15, 2022 Author Share Posted May 15, 2022 1863 I don't think the model pick up will amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 18z GFS is sticking with a strong TS/weak cane near the Yucatan but backed off blowing it up in the Gulf. This what you're looking for in Tampa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 This is what we need this time of year! Makes all the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 10 hours ago, cptcatz said: 18z GFS is sticking with a strong TS/weak cane near the Yucatan but backed off blowing it up in the Gulf. This what you're looking for in Tampa? And it’s back also has it redevelop and hit the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 06z GFS is one of the worst model runs I've seen for southeast Florida in a long time. The 985 mb eye dead center over West Palm Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 I see a couple other models are now starting to pick up a hint of a low forming around the Yucatan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 16, 2022 Share Posted May 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Prospero said: I see a couple other models are now starting to pick up a hint of a low forming around the Yucatan. It's good to finally have something worth posting about I just went through the GEFS and EPS, it looks like one of the main differences is where the energy coalesces. On the GEFS, the signal is for more eastern development in the western Caribbean, which the EPS mostly keeps things suppressed and develops more in the EPAC. Climo kinda favors EPAC right now, but if we can get moisture to stream more north toward the Yucatan, that increases odds of something forming on our side of tracks. Still not quite ready for primetime yet with any higher end tropical development absent excellent upper level conditions, IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 GFS still spinning a storm in the Gulf. Granted, it has been all over the place, but hanging on. It is approaching late May, we do get storms this early. I'm not worried about a Laura, Michael, etc. But a TS would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 3 hours ago, Prospero said: GFS still spinning a storm in the Gulf. Granted, it has been all over the place, but hanging on. It is approaching late May, we do get storms this early. I'm not worried about a Laura, Michael, etc. But a TS would be nice. A gradually intensifying TS that brings a good rain would be a nice appetizer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: A gradually intensifying TS that brings a good rain would be a nice appetizer. But then what might be OK for the Florida peninsula would not be as welcome in LA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 Although I know the GFS is smoking something...Definitely potential there if something does spin up. Of course with more troughs moving into the gulf this time of year, potential Is more limited, but I could definitely see a strong hybrid type system somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 My wife puts on the Weather Channel for her daily afternoon nap while she is comfy in her recliner chair. I'm on my PC in my office in the next room, but in the background did I hear them talking about Tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico (based on GFS)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 The GFS has been like a dog that will not just let go of his grip. Jeez, run after run for day after day the GFS has been insistent that something is going to get going in the NW Caribbean or Gulf. If this would ever come to fruition the GFS will have scored a total respect from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted May 17, 2022 Share Posted May 17, 2022 2 hours ago, wxeyeNH said: The GFS has been like a dog that will not just let go of his grip. Jeez, run after run for day after day the GFS has been insistent that something is going to get going in the NW Caribbean or Gulf. If this would ever come to fruition the GFS will have scored a total respect from me. Even if totally wrong, I'm a fan as having something to see a couple or so times a day for a couple weeks. My first 2022 season excitement! I am voting for GFS, but not betting money on it. Still worth coming to see every day what it's model predicts. Later on may judge by what happens now, but for today, I love the Spring energy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 Aaaaaand GFS has thrown in the towel. That was fun while it lasted... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 I have no idea if this is significant but that's an impressive looking area of convection over the southern Caribbean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 18, 2022 Share Posted May 18, 2022 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: I have no idea if this is significant but that's an impressive looking area of convection over the southern Caribbean... Issue is that it’ll likely be suppressed further south, significantly limiting any chance of development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted May 20, 2022 Share Posted May 20, 2022 Next area to watch? GFS thinks this strong MJO is gonna spawn a hurricane 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted May 21, 2022 Share Posted May 21, 2022 Entertainment back on here in Tampa Bay. Little rain here today, but we need a soaking rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted May 24, 2022 Share Posted May 24, 2022 First time this season the bearish Euro has shown a solid TC in the Atlantic. Seems like over the past few years the Euro showing a TC is not something to brush off... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted May 25, 2022 Share Posted May 25, 2022 20 hours ago, cptcatz said: First time this season the bearish Euro has shown a solid TC in the Atlantic. Seems like over the past few years the Euro showing a TC is not something to brush off... TS formation in the BOC in June happens more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 25, 2022 Share Posted May 25, 2022 Euro still has a sheared, battling dry air cyclone or attempt at a cyclone forming from the remnants of an EPAC cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 25, 2022 Share Posted May 25, 2022 On 5/17/2022 at 8:11 AM, olafminesaw said: Although I know the GFS is smoking something...Definitely potential there if something does spin up. Of course with more troughs moving into the gulf this time of year, potential Is more limited, but I could definitely see a strong hybrid type system somewhere. Not sure if there has been a study to combine cyclone speed with subsea topography and OHC to develop a better predictor for max cyclone intensity. A faster cyclone, even if strong, would seem to have less time to upwell cooler water before the center passes. I know 1938 was probably baroclinically enhanced, it had very little time over colder water to weaken, however because of its speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 25, 2022 Share Posted May 25, 2022 Just now, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Not sure if there has been a study to combine cyclone speed with subsea topography and OHC to develop a better predictor for max cyclone intensity. A faster cyclone, even if strong, would seem to have less time to upwell cooler water before the center passes. I know 1938 was probably baroclinically enhanced, it had very little time over colder water to weaken, however because of its speed. I suspect the reason Texas has never had a Cat 5 is not a shallow subsurface meaning very low OHC, I think it is strong storms would start entraining downsloping air off the Chihuahuan desert highlands. If not for that, SSTs would support more than Cat 4. (Now, if things like the Gulf's average SST's do rise w/ climate change, maybe not even dry air could stop a smaller storm, but I wonder if warmer SSTs would cause warmer upper level temps with time, keeping instability from rising as quickly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 26, 2022 Share Posted May 26, 2022 New Euro doesn't quite close off a low, PWAT and even shear looks less prohibitive than yesterday's 12Z, but the shear across the Northern Gulf is >40 knots at 240 hours. Edit to Add, some GFS ensemble support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted May 27, 2022 Share Posted May 27, 2022 The big three are all in agreement of a sub-1000 storm passing near/over the Florida peninsula. Probably looking like something like Eta's impacts for us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 It appears that the ECMWF keeps a would-be Agatha as a closed low as it crosses from the Pacific into the Atlantic basin. When was the last time we had a named storm (TS or higher) cross basins in this manner? I know TD-11 crossed over and developed into a TS in 2010, but it only got named Hermine after it crossed. Note that I do see several Atlantic-to-Pacific crossovers, but few Pacific-to-Atlantic crossovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted May 28, 2022 Share Posted May 28, 2022 6 hours ago, cptcatz said: The big three are all in agreement of a sub-1000 storm passing near/over the Florida peninsula. Probably looking like something like Eta's impacts for us here. Ensemble signal on the EPS/GEFS looks solid as well for this range. Need a little more time to figure what the seed for development looks like, whether it’s the actual EPAC system per the Euro or some other area of vorticity a la GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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