2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Normandy]

The only negative factor I see (and it seems like its a general issue with systems this year)....we have two areas of of competing vorticity..  I see one due south of Louisiana and another east of Brownsville

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

6 hours ago, ldub23 said:

A quick td trying to develop in a  year that was  supposed to be hyperactive. *sighs*

If I was post limited I would have saved this post.  I see you, I know the season looks like it will not start before very end of August, and may not be superactive.  GaWx or somebody posted about a third year Nina.  Late start and over 100 ACE still possible, especially with Gulf and Caribbean in October.

 

Bummed, can't log in work Google account... 

 

ETA- if I were a degreed meteorologist and had a social media following, I'd have done 10/20 mainly because of ensembles.  I did post that, with a shortened Storm2K 'take this with a grain or 18 of salt' on Twitter just after 7.  10% lemon with an invest tag, that is rare...

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

If I was post limited I would have saved this post.  I see you, I know the season looks like it will not start before very end of August, and may not be superactive.  GaWx or somebody posted about a third year Nina.  Late start and over 100 ACE still possible, especially with Gulf and Caribbean in October.

 

Bummed, can't log in work Google account... 

Yeah, I posted about 3rd year La Niña ACE from 8 analogs. Strongest was 1894's 135 followed by 2000's 119. And 1985 was a very tough year for the US even with ACE of only 88.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

The new invest thread is here.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[SnoSki14]

Looking at OP/Ensembles there are strong indications the season picks up after the 20th.

Nice broad Atlantic ridge looks to set up with waves underneath. Shear also dropping in MDR region

[ldub23]

3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

If I was post limited I would have saved this post.  I see you, I know the season looks like it will not start before very end of August, and may not be superactive.  GaWx or somebody posted about a third year Nina.  Late start and over 100 ACE still possible, especially with Gulf and Caribbean in October.

 

Bummed, can't log in work Google account... 

 

ETA- if I were a degreed meteorologist and had a social media following, I'd have done 10/20 mainly because of ensembles.  I did post that, with a shortened Storm2K 'take this with a grain or 18 of salt' on Twitter just after 7.  10% lemon with an invest tag, that is rare...

The way this season is  going  5 posts a day will be  just  fine, lol. As we can see  here the reason the GFS contines to keep the  Sahara bone dry  is  because of  super duper  high pressure  in the tropics. Look at the  last frame. INCREDIBLE. No wave will make  it thru that. We will see  just  how  much the gulf and carib  can do with this  pattern. I suspect  not  much. Also, move your eyes  north  from the tropics and  notice there  is  no wheel. High pressure  just  keeps  moving west to east and  never  locks  in. That  pattern is NOT conducive to late season activity. We are already  getting  cooler than normal air  in the east  now. I didnt think that would start till mid Sept. This  is the  early  winter  pattern i have  been talking  about.

I hope texas gets  some  beneficial rain and even without  a weak low  the rain is  coming.

Here  is the  GFS forecast  for  TX rain

 

In summary this  pattern will have to reverse or  sept  will be as dead as  Aug. And  if the  pattern doesnt reverse  i will have to disagree about  Oct.

 

Addendum: Also notice the  coast  of Africa. Because  of the  super duper wooper  high pressure the waves are squeezed way too far  north so there  may not  even be any waves to worry  about.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

7 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

The way this season is  going  5 posts a day will be  just  fine, lol. As we can see  here the reason the GFS contines to keep the  Sahara bone dry  is  because of  super duper  high pressure  in the tropics. Look at the  last frame. INCREDIBLE. No wave will make  it thru that. We will see  just  how  much the gulf and carib  can do with this  pattern. I suspect  not  much. Also, move your eyes  north  from the tropics and  notice there  is  no wheel. High pressure  just  keeps  moving west to east and  never  locks  in. That  pattern is NOT conducive to late season activity. We are already  getting  cooler than normal air  in the east  now. I didnt think that would start till mid Sept. This  is the  early  winter  pattern i have  been talking  about.

I hope texas gets  some  beneficial rain and even without  a weak low  the rain is  coming.

Here  is the  GFS forecast  for  TX rain

 

In summary this  pattern will have to reverse or  sept  will be as dead as  Aug. And  if the  pattern doesnt reverse  i will have to disagree about  Oct.

Waves that don't develop until approaching or in the Caribbean are a lot more likely to make landfall, and I can think of recent RI Cat 4/Cat 5 hurricanes hitting Texas and Florida.  Oh, Louisiana as well.  My 'second regional' forum, NYC/Long Island (Catholic school and desire for snow) certainly remembers Ida

[tiger_deF]

I can't tell if the board is stuck in early season or late season blues, that this middling circulation is the most exciting thing we've been able to track in over a month. 

[Normandy]

The bad news.....98L is vanishing.

The good news....look off the SE coast.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, Normandy said:

The bad news.....98L is vanishing.

The good news....look off the SE coast.

 All 3 major 0Z models form a sfc low off the SE US coast by early next week that then heads to the Maine/Maritimes area Wed/Thu. This has been hinted at for a week or longer. Anyone else watching this? This could become the next NS.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

IIRC, Colin developed from a front that caused a 30% lemon, I think a 40% orange, off Louisiana.

 

Deja vu all over again.

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

 All 3 major 0Z models form a sfc low off the SE US coast by early next week that then heads to the Maine/Maritimes area Wed/Thu. This has been hinted at for a week or longer. Anyone else watching this? This could become the next NS.

I was watching it last week  

Doesn't look tropical verbatim on the guidance. The low would need to develop further south IMO. We actually need the rain up here so I’d take a 06z GFS—tropical or not—in a heartbeat.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I was watching it last week  

Doesn't look tropical verbatim on the guidance. The low would need to develop further south IMO. We actually need the rain up here so I’d take a 06z GFS—tropical or not—in a heartbeat.

Imho, verbatim, the 6Z GFS does have a NS going into New England whether purely tropical or not as it is at least a STS and probably is a strong TS. I say TS because it first forms a sfc low east of NC where it is a very warm 29-30 C and it then gets down to 996 mb by the time it reaches 40N, which is how far north the 26 C line gets:

[GaWx]

Look out on the 12Z GFS NE US!

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Look out on the 12Z GFS NE US!

That is purely a non-tropical nor easter. It has a front attached and a very chilly backside. That’s probably the worst sign for tropical activity at the moment possible. Restregthens the east coast trough and pulls in a fall-like airmass. Will be interesting to watch and probably new England’s best chance at much-needed rainfall but that is NOT tropical 

[NorthHillsWx]

For New England it’s actually showing highs in the 50’s while that’s pushing onshore! That’s pretty chilly for mid August! 

[SnoSki14]

Tropical, no but at the very least it's a hybrid/sub-tropical. Its origins are over the very warm gulf stream. 

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Tropical, no but at the very least it's a hybrid/sub-tropical. Its origins are over the very warm gulf stream. 

 This! Like on the 6Z GFS, this forms over 29-30 C SSTs on Tuesday off NC and it remains over 29-30 C for 12 hours. It looks imho like it is at the very least a STS although I lean toward TS before possibly transitioning to a STS.

[ldub23]

43 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That is purely a non-tropical nor easter. It has a front attached and a very chilly backside. That’s probably the worst sign for tropical activity at the moment possible. Restregthens the east coast trough and pulls in a fall-like airmass. Will be interesting to watch and probably new England’s best chance at much-needed rainfall but that is NOT tropical 

I agree. The season ending winter  pattern has arrived early. I am also surprised that  once again we are  in the super duper favorable  phase  2. I must  have  missed how  phase2=The Sahara. 100% dead MDR and even if that weak low forms  off VA and  is partly tropical its the exact thing you would expect to see  in a dead season. Mid Nov and this would be a  big early season Snowstorm for the NE.  Another  nail in the  coffin of the  2022 Sahara caneless season. It  looks  like the  phase 2 sahara version of the MJO will be gone  by  Sept  10. After that they may not  have graphs that  will be able to show  the massive  lack of  moisture  in the MDR.

 

CSU, if you are  listening do an emergency  update and forecast  4/1/0 for the rest  of the season.

 

Lows  have  been regualrly  forming  in the  massive  offshore trof for  sometime. We  have  one today, though not as strong as the  low next week. The sad thing  is  for  snow and  cold  lovers that  eventually this wintertime  pattern will reverse to a  pattern that would  be favorable  for  hurricanes but  by that time all it would  lead to is a  mild winter.

 

[GaWx]

 The 12Z UK verbatim per text actually has a TC form at 102 hrs that then goes N into NE. It forms it at 38.2 N, 71.0 W, where SST is at 29 C:

 

  NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 38.2N  71.0W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 18.08.2022  108  38.9N  69.0W     1005            27
    1200UTC 18.08.2022  120  43.3N  69.6W     1000            27
    0000UTC 19.08.2022  132  43.7N  69.6W     1002            27
    1200UTC 19.08.2022  144              CEASED TRACKING

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

12Z GFS at t96, if I were NHC, would trigger a non-zero 5 days lemon.  I don't work, of course, for NHC  This may make TS/STS irrevelant, it is close to low Cat 1 pressure.

[Normandy]

if the GFS is to be believed, August will still pump out at least 4 NS.  The MDR is absolutely cooked though, or it will have an absurdly late start.

[GaWx]

12Z UK, which is being labeled as a TC starting here, where SST is 29 C:

 

 

At 120:

[Floydbuster]

32 minutes ago, Normandy said:

if the GFS is to be believed, August will still pump out at least 4 NS.  The MDR is absolutely cooked though, or it will have an absurdly late start.

I was gonna say, I see Danielle, Earl and Fiona by August 28th per the 12Z GFS.

[GaWx]

12Z Euro is stronger and closer to the coast kind of similar to the UK. The key here to me is that it trended somewhat with the 6Z/12Z GFS. At hour 96, this looks like it could easily be a STD though it doesn't look tropical:

 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro stronger and hits NE as what imho almost has to have been a NS (probably ST) at least before this image considering the warmth of the SSTs:

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro stronger and hits NE as what imho almost has to have been a NS (probably ST) at least before this image considering the warmth of the SSTs:

Nice cave to the gfs

[NorthHillsWx]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro stronger and hits NE as what imho almost has to have been a NS (probably ST) at least before this image considering the warmth of the SSTs:

We’ll watch how it develops but it looks like a Nor easter to me. If you look at the mid to upper lever wind charts you can see it’s frontal and then the incredible temp decrease on the backside. Further, it rides the edge of the gulfstream and Labrador currents and is likely being fueled by that temp contrast, rather than the warm water of the gulfstream. Looks nor Easter ish to me

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

4 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

We’ll watch how it develops but it looks like a Nor easter to me. If you look at the mid to upper lever wind charts you can see it’s frontal and then the incredible temp decrease on the backside. Further, it rides the edge of the gulfstream and Labrador currents and is likely being fueled by that temp contrast, rather than the warm water of the gulfstream. Looks nor Easter ish to me

I don't need to see FSU phase diagrams when the isobars are that 'whatever the opposite of a circle' is.  (Non-symmetric?) But a TC getting non-tropical forcing and maintaining or even gaining intensity.  1938 was moving fast with only a few hours over cooler SSTs, but weakening only to a solid Cat 3, was it what smarter people(than me) call isobaric forcing.  A hybrid Nor'Easter sort of describes Sandy, although it missed the Benchmark and would have been the hated 'cutter'.  (Wiki 1938 image below)