2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Maxwell03]

24 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I mean though a quiet season would be extremely boring, it would be good for everyone dealing with high energy prices & inflation this year. 

However I'm still waiting for August 20-22th. That's the period when the switch normally happens and you'd be surprised how quickly the tides can turn. 

Not to mention the string of destructive canes that have rocked the US in recent years

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Maxwell03 said:

Not to mention the string of destructive canes that have rocked the US in recent years

 I was going to say not to mention the obvious that the last thing the sane amongst us who live not too far from the coast want to happen is a hurricane plowing in and likely causing at a minimum temporary major disruptions to our families' and friends' lives due to the huge inconvenience from having to evacuate (especially for disabled bedbound persons and their caregivers like in my situation..I don't even know how I'd be able to do it), alone, and of course the potential for long lasting power outages and worse yet, damage and even casualties for those who try to ride it out. So, ldub's version of "bad news" is the exact opposite for some of us coastal folks. I just feel it is pointless to repeatedly preach the obvious at a wx forum. But I'm human and will speak my mind on this at times. Your comment gave me a perfect time to do so. This is a reminder that hurricanes are huge life disruptors wherever they hit and are not just a game to see where they will go. So, since a quiet season normally means less chance of these severe disruptions, having a quiet season would actually be great news for some people. I don't mind the nonmajor effects. But as regards major effects, you can put me in the "I'll pass" category every time. 

 Regardless, when I post in the tropical threads, I try to do it in as objective a manner as possible. My goal is to be informative and accurate while not allowing anyone to tell what my desires actually are. If what one desires were to affect one's posts, that would take away from their objectivity and thus their value.

[ldub23]

22 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I was going to say not to mention the obvious that the last thing the sane amongst us who live not too far from the coast want to happen is a hurricane plowing in and likely causing at a minimum temporary major disruptions to our families' and friends' lives due to the huge inconvenience from having to evacuate (especially for disabled bedbound persons and their caregivers like in my situation..I don't even know how I'd be able to do it), alone, and of course the potential for long lasting power outages and worse yet, damage and even casualties for those who try to ride it out. So, ldub's version of "bad news" is the exact opposite for some of us coastal folks. I just feel it is pointless to repeatedly preach the obvious at a wx forum. But I'm human and will speak my mind on this at times. Your comment gave me a perfect time to do so. This is a reminder that hurricanes are huge life disruptors wherever they hit and are not just a game to see where they will go.

 Regardless, when I post in the tropical threads, I try to do it in as objective a manner as possible. My goal is to be informative and accurate while not allowing anyone to tell what my desires actually are.

Now  can you explain how wanting something translates  into making  it  happen? And would you  be  nice enough to go into the winter threads and scold them for wanting weather that  kills far  more than hurricanes. Right  now  in the  mid-Atlantic forum they are  in panic and  meltdown because the evidence seems to indicate a  mild winter. Let them know they should  be  rejoicing and arent being  nice wanting weather that  kills. Oh, and  please  let storm chasers(who desperately  want strong tornados and  hurricanes to form though no doubt they can claim purity  by using their thoughts to keep what they want from hitting  populated areas) know  your  feelings about what they desire. If someone, anyone, can show  how I, snow and  cold  lovers, storm chasers, and  others can control the weather with our thoughts please do so. No one who posts  on this  forum came  here to post  because they like warm sunny 72 degrees days year round. And  one  last thing. No doubt we will get someone saying, yea  i want to watch cat  5 hurricanes  but  i want them to stay out  to sea. Its awesome you  can control them that way. I sure  cant.

 

*I dont want to sound  harsh. I am quite certain you  mean well and want the  best for  everyone.

[Prospero]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I was going to say not to mention the obvious that the last thing the sane amongst us who live not too far from the coast want to happen is a hurricane plowing in and likely causing at a minimum temporary major disruptions to our families' and friends' lives due to the huge inconvenience from having to evacuate (especially for disabled bedbound persons and their caregivers like in my situation..I don't even know how I'd be able to do it), alone, and of course the potential for long lasting power outages and worse yet, damage and even casualties for those who try to ride it out. So, ldub's version of "bad news" is the exact opposite for some of us coastal folks.

This season I am going insanely bored (not new area for me) wanting something here. Irma sucked, weeks without power. The financial costs were unbearable. But now so many years ago throwing away canned food we bought for that storm we never used, shrunken crinkled gallons of water starting to leak in our closet now being used for gardening, etc.

I don't want my roof to blow off. I am not happy to think about my neighbors and myself suffering. But we live on the coast in Florida and every year we want "some" excitement. Yes, that is CRAZY! I admit!

I lived in Colorado waiting for blizzards. But in the Ski Areas snow is like money falling from Heaven.

I've chased storms many years ago and have yet to see a real tornado. I've seen waterspouts come on land and was close enough once to go run and stand in one. But not the same as a mid-west tornado. I've been in several Hurricanes, at least on the sidelines. Maybe a hail storm in Colorado in '68/69 or an ice storm in Michigan '75/76 was worse?

Yet most years by Christmas we look back and remember some names forgetting some others, and talk about the Tropical Systems that are a part of our lives, and without we have other issues like drought and wildfires.

I'm not a Met, just a computer programmer and Storm enthusiast since the 1960s. So my reputation is not at risk here. just being honest...

 

 

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Now  can you explain how wanting something translates  into making  it  happen? And would you  be  nice enough to go into the winter threads and scold them for wanting weather that  kills far  more than hurricanes. Oh, and  please  let storm chasers(who desperately  want strong tornados and  hurricanes to form though no doubt they can claim purity  by using their thoughts to keep what they want from hitting  populated areas) know  your  feelings about what they desire. If someone, anyone, can show  how I, snow and  cold  lovers, storm chasers, and  others can control the weather with our thoughts please do so. No one who posts  on this  forum came  here to post  because they like warm sunny 72 degrees days year round. And  one  last thing. No doubt we will get someone saying, yea  i want to watch cat  5 hurricanes  but  i want them to stay out  to sea. Its awesome you  can control them that way. I sure  cant.

 

*I dont want to sound  harsh. I am quite certain you  mean well and want the  best for  everyone.

 I never said nor even implied that wanting translates into making them happen since it of course does nothing of the sort. My point is that not everyone feels the same way about these and I have the right to speak my mind (although I won't do it repeatedly). Doing this during these slow times is obviously a better time to do it than when active

[WxWatcher007]

34 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Regardless, when I post in the tropical threads, I try to do it in as objective a manner as possible. My goal is to be informative and accurate while not allowing anyone to tell what my desires actually are. If what one desires were to affect one's posts, that would take away from their objectivity and thus their value.

This. I’m obviously a tropical weenie. I’ve spent my entire life fascinated with the complexity and power of tropical cyclones. I chase now, which often brings me to places where people will be profoundly impacted, even in non-major events.

I try to keep my opinions focused on the facts and interpret things objectively. I know not everyone can or wants to do that, but it’s a better learning experience that way IMO. 

[Prospero]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

I never nor even implied that wanting translates into making them happen since it of course does nothing of the sort.

I'd like to mention, not as a sane statement, but as myself I am very cautious about using my "will" or "intent" to intentionally intensify any storm. I know one person sitting in his backyard is not going to change anything. But I am Prospero, and Thunder and Lightning were mine to play with 400 years ago.

Now sitting in my backyard with anticipation and excitement, that's another thing. I love watching storms.

Every day I get Twitter feeds from Storm Chasers and Mets with very interesting video clips and I watch every one sometimes many times.

 

[GaWx]

48 minutes ago, Prospero said:

This season I am going insanely bored (not new area for me) wanting something here. Irma sucked, weeks without power. The financial costs were unbearable. But now so many years ago throwing away canned food we bought for that storm we never used, shrunken crinkled gallons of water starting to leak in our closet now being used for gardening, etc.

I don't want my roof to blow off. I am not happy to think about my neighbors and myself suffering. But we live on the coast in Florida and every year we want "some" excitement. Yes, that is CRAZY! I admit!

I lived in Colorado waiting for blizzards. But in the Ski Areas snow is like money falling from Heaven.

I've chased storms many years ago and have yet to see a real tornado. I've seen waterspouts come on land and was close enough once to go run and stand in one. But not the same as a mid-west tornado. I've been in several Hurricanes, at least on the sidelines. Maybe a hail storm in Colorado in '68/69 or an ice storm in Michigan '75/76 was worse?

Yet most years by Christmas we look back and remember some names forgetting some others, and talk about the Tropical Systems that are a part of our lives, and without we have other issues like drought and wildfires.

I'm not a Met, just a computer programmer and Storm enthusiast since the 1960s. So my reputation is not at risk here. just being honest...

 

 

 A big problem to me is the difference between "some" excitement and "too much" excitement. I don't mind "some" excitement as I implied. But we don't get to choose. What will happen will happen. About the only way to know there will not be too much excitement is for it to be boring (say, no hurricane threatening). From my perspective, the problems from "boredom" pale in comparison to the problems from "too much excitement". So, I'm content with boredom (quietness). Or to know, say, that no more than a moderate TS is threatening. But that's just my opinion. Others like you would prefer to take the chance. I respect that you and others feel differently as long as my feelings are also respected. And I respect that people's feelings about this will often change with experiences and circumstances. In my situation, if I didn't have a mainly bedbound family member who has chronic terrible back pain among other things (not to mention the huge responsibility to take care of that family member), I wouldn't feel as worried because everyone could much more easily evacuate. I'm confident that having this situation, alone, would change the perspective of many.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Ike was sort of adventure, a friend from work lent me a revolver in case of looters, I cooked meet out of plastic ice filled and blue freezer filled thingies, and day after the storm, my wife took the kids to AUS where her brother lives.  I read paperback books until it got too dark, I had Catholic votive candles as bathroom night light, and BBQs or ate canned food until electricity was finally back.   I *think* I had running water only because I don't remember flushing toilets w/bathtub water.   It was sort of a vacation although no going to my wife's grandparents beach place on Galveston Island Summer 2009 because it didn't exist that year was no fun.  And the 2021 freeze, painfully reminded as an overweight 58 year old, no electricity means no CPAP, it isn't just snoring, it impacts my sleep.  Generac isn't in the budget for a prolonged outage that is a once a decade event.  And posted pages back, support for an active Gulf in October on NMME, if verifies, means a US MH landfall is almost a probability.  Edit- meet/meat error...

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

23 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

It might actually rain at my house in Houston after 2+months of 2011 heat/drought.  I'm back to work, can't look at every model, but haven't seen any model support.  But front in the Gulf and light shear.  Probably not the last August front, which bring only a DP drop and no cool air/high winds to rob OHC

4 12Z ECENS have a TD/TS (one 993 mb, a Cat 1 hurricane???)  4/50 glass half full.  'Home brew'.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Double secret probation home brew TD/TS alert is now in affect.

 

 

 

[Prospero]

Quote

And the 2021 freeze, painfully reminded as an overweight 58 year old, no electricity means no CPAP, it isn't just snoring, it impacts my sleep.

I bought my wife and I a pair of CPAP backup batteries. I can't even sleep at night without one.

The ones we bought were recommended here on this forum. No hurricanes since we bought ours, but with typical seasonal thunderstorms, people running into power poles at any time, and winter cold fronts with a wind, we have been VERY happy we have these.

Even in the day if the power goes off for no serious long lasting reason, a nap is sweet to pass the time!.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Double secret probation home brew TD/TS alert is now in affect.

 

 

 

My memory of significant Gulf development from a non-tropical system, maybe 1997 and 1983 biased, a warm ENSO is involved.  A cold ENSO but an active EPAC/dead ATL, this feels like a Nino year, or a non-tropical origin TC would sort of fit.

[Prospero]

If I am not mistaking, if this manifests it would not be the first no expectation out of nowhere pop on the radar then news worthy GOM storm of the 2022 season?

I went to bed last night with no expectations of even a drop of rain. By the time I woke up this morning after two thunderstorms that had substance, and all day later it is cool, damp, and cloudy with a steady breeze. 100% not expected.

Radar has activity on the Gulf.

How many times here in my years living in Gulfport, Florida when there was zero TS probabilities which are gone within a few hours when the GOM exhales on a hot day. When I woke up this morning, I could feel it. Maybe it will fizzle away, the dust is big around here, but loving being outside with it feeling like mid-September with a TC in the northern GOM.

Something feels like a TC. There is a feel.

Or not...

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

5 minutes ago, Prospero said:

If I am not mistaking, if this manifests it would not be the first no expectation out of nowhere pop on the radar then news worthy GOM storm of the 2022 season?

I went to bed last night with no expectations of even a drop of rain. By the time I woke up this morning after two thunderstorms that had substance, and all day later it is cool, damp, and cloudy with a steady breeze. 100% not expected.

Radar has activity on the Gulf.

How many times here in my years living in Gulfport, Florida when there was zero TS probabilities which are gone within a few hours when the GOM exhales on a hot day. When I woke up this morning, I could feel it. Maybe it will fizzle away, the dust is big around here, but loving being outside with it feeling like mid-September with a TC in the northern GOM.

Something feels like a TC. There is a feel.

Or not...

KHOU version of a high res model simulated radar suggests a TD landfall near CRP.  It wasn't the 18Z 3 km NAM, but that is close to whatever this model shows.  Except 3 km NAM looks just a bit too disorganized to be a classified TC before landfall.  No idea if KHOU was using a different NCEP high-res model or private version that *I think* runs something based on WRF NMM or ARW.

[Prospero]

Colin is the 2022 one I was thinking about. A typical pop up storm in Gulf? Were any of us way ahead of that one?

EDIT: Wiki says it formed in the Atlantic. So not the GOM. Was it is a TC spin from GOM?

 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

19 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Colin is the 2022 one I was thinking about. A typical pop up storm in Gulf? Were any of us way ahead of that one?

EDIT: Wiki says it formed in the Atlantic. So not the GOM. Was it is a TC spin from GOM?

 

 

2007 Humberto, weak Nino, formed off a front, went from only weenie models (NAM and Canadian) seeing it, to a TD in under a day, and was a 70 knot hurricane half a day later.  BPT area was under a hurricane warning for 2 hours before landfall.  *Franklin, the forecaster, not the storm, is friendly to amateurs like me, he was the one who said 2 hours of warning.  The weenie model part, I remember that myself.  EDIT, no 7 pm "Lemon".  I kinda expected one.

[Prospero]

Remember those names!

Since 2003 or so in Tampa Bay,Florida, even when not interested, local weather in the morning have had several wake up surprises right off the coast of the Bay. Go to bed, nothing to think about weather wise. Wake up, a TD is on National news.

Maybe my imagination, but seems like every year. But years go by like weeks when you get older...

 

 

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, Prospero said:

Colin is the 2022 one I was thinking about. A typical pop up storm in Gulf? Were any of us way ahead of that one?

EDIT: Wiki says it formed in the Atlantic. So not the GOM. Was it is a TC spin from GOM?

 No, the precursor to Colin was a trough off the SE US coast. It developed a closed LLC just offshore from my area. Before that, I got 4" of rain/street flooding. Now that's the kind of tropical system that even I can deal with just fine and actually enjoy the moderate excitement from. No worries about evacuating. No worries about longlasting outages or damage. And as a bonus we got beneficial rainfall.

[Prospero]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

No, the precursor to Colin was a trough of the SE US coast.

I am possibly back in 2021? Earlier? LOL

Either way an occasional surprise GOM storm during a dead time is fun.

Maybe in the next day or so?

[Prospero]

Double secret probation home brew TD/TS alert is now in affect.

 

[SnowenOutThere]

4 hours ago, ldub23 said:

And would you  be  nice enough to go into the winter threads and scold them for wanting weather that  kills far  more than hurricanes

Idub23 be like:

 

[Wannabehippie]

The upper air across the Atlantic is acting more like an El Nino year, not a La Nina. Very strange with the hostile conditions going this deep in to the season. We still of course have a month before the season reaches peak.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Idub23 be like:

 

I'm guessing death due to cold, especially for people with limited resources, and increased accidents on icy roads, at least some years, the cold kills more (USA).  I could Google but it is bed time, but 2005, I'd guess the tropics 'won' that year.  In the Western Hemisphere, I suspect Haiti and various Central American nations, which routinely lose hundred or even thousands to TC flooding, I suspect TCs 'win' a lot.  Mitch killed almost 20,000...

[TheDreamTraveler]

On 8/9/2022 at 8:28 PM, ldub23 said:

Well said. JB is  the role  model for  many.

JB has sadly let social media rot his brain inside out. It sucks because I followed him to Weatherbell and loved his stuff and even paid for it. It's just sad seeing the changes to him over the years :/

[ldub23]

15 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Double secret probation home brew TD/TS alert is now in affect.

 

 

 

A quick td trying to develop in a  year that was  supposed to be hyperactive. *sighs*

[floridapirate]

12 hours ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

JB has sadly let social media rot his brain inside out. It sucks because I followed him to Weatherbell and loved his stuff and even paid for it. It's just sad seeing the changes to him over the years :/

Its all about clicks generating dollars.  Let me guess, his winter forecast is calling for unusual cold and heavy snows, perhaps of biblical proportions?  He knows what sells and does just enough right to justify the subscription.

[Prospero]

The feel was in the air...

[Normandy]

This GOM system i think might be slept on.  Looking at the cloud fields over Texas and Louisiana, there seems to be a very large developing low SSW of New Orleans.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Normandy said:

This GOM system i think might be slept on.  Looking at the cloud fields over Texas and Louisiana, there seems to be a very large developing low SSW of New Orleans.

 It wouldn't surprise me as models miss a lot of storms, including Colin earlier this season. Taking this further, who's to say there won't be a couple more after that over the next two weeks or so? I'm still sticking with 3 NS for the most likely # of NS this month.

Edit: To add: the 0Z EPS was rather active in the E MDR for week 2. Consistent with this, the last 3 Euro op runs ending with today's 12Z have a weak surface low that comes off Africa ~8/19 and then moves WSW due to a rather strong Azores high to its north. This is a low that the EPS has been showing for most of this week's runs.