2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[WxWatcher007]

We’re better off than we were two weeks ago, but it’s still objectively ugly, especially in the eastern and central Atlantic as a result of stability and mid level dry air more than anything.

It’s a false start.

We need to be patient and see if this advertised pattern change is realized. If it’s not, we’re probably cooked for anything well above normal. I think hyperactive is off the table. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Except 1997 had 4 early season storms, including a US landfall hurricane, this feels like 1997 to me.  Dial up modem and the CSU prediction in the day.

 

Active EPAC and a dead ATL feels so warm ENSO.  I assume modern climate models now would catch the coming Super-Nino the models hadn't in April when Gray went for an above average season.

 

At age 58, a slow season happening, its happened before, active seasons will return.

 

I posted above, NMME to be believed, October in the Gulf will be active, which is a recipe for a MH USA landfall assuming the first few fronts of Autumn haven't damaged OHC much.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

4 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Except 1997 had 4 early season storms, including a US landfall hurricane, this feels like 1997 to me.  Dial up modem and the CSU prediction in the day.

 

Active EPAC and a dead ATL feels so warm ENSO.  I assume modern climate models now would catch the coming Super-Nino the models hadn't in April when Gray went for an above average season.

 

At age 58, a slow season happening, its happened before, active seasons will return.

 

I posted above, NMME to be believed, October in the Gulf will be active, which is a recipe for a MH USA landfall assuming the first few fronts of Autumn haven't damaged OHC much.

1997, Rob Perillo of the local LFT TV station called the impressive MCV that that gave LFT a big light show to develop.  Danny developed while I was working a land rig.  A month later, job offshore Mississippi Canyon for ADTI (cheap contract drillers) had decided not to evac drill rig.  Cat 1 flooded the  Shell heliport parking lot in Venice, all the hands lost their cars to SW flooding, ADTI refused to cover it. 

[GaWx]

12 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Except 1997 had 4 early season storms, including a US landfall hurricane, this feels like 1997 to me.  Dial up modem and the CSU prediction in the day.

 

Active EPAC and a dead ATL feels so warm ENSO.  I assume modern climate models now would catch the coming Super-Nino the models hadn't in April when Gray went for an above average season.

 

At age 58, a slow season happening, its happened before, active seasons will return.

 

I posted above, NMME to be believed, October in the Gulf will be active, which is a recipe for a MH USA landfall assuming the first few fronts of Autumn haven't damaged OHC much.

 Yeah, there's no indication that El Niño is coming this fall/winter with a 90 day SOI of +13 and 30 day of +10 along with SSTAs in 3.4 in the weak La Niña range and equatorial OHC having dropped back to cooler than normal. La Niña is still pretty heavily favored though it may peak earlier than average. But La Niña seasons are not all alike to say the least.

[Seminole]

  I think it is safe to agree that peak SAL is not going to happen until Mid August or even later given current conditions. Any TC formation would likely be in the GOM or Western Caribbean in the near term.   

 

 

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, Seminole said:

  I think it is safe to agree that peak SAL is not going to happen until Mid August or even later given current conditions. Any TC formation would likely be in the GOM or Western Caribbean in the near term.   

 

 

GFS says 0/0/0 is  very  possible except  for  1 weak nothing  in the  middle  of  nowhwere. I guess the  GOOD news is that would  be another  name. The  bad news? It appears to get stuck in the central atlantic. That  means  killing the  already anemic wave train and flooding the Atlantic with massive  dry air. Oh, the east  pac el nino cane fest  just  keeps  on going. Normally the reason the east  pac slows down in a typical season is a wave will finally develop in the tropical atlantic which in turn ends the wave train entering the east  pac. Absolutely  no sign of that on the  12Z. I seriously  doubt that  1972, 73, 74, 82, 83, 97 looked as  barren as this.

 

2 more East Pac canes lined up and ready to rumble with more  on the  way in an impressive East Pac El Nino.

 

 

 

Yes, those years were  barren and this season mimics them. 2 more  points.

A- The experts are  now already  telling  us when the  super favorable  conditions will leave the Atlantic before they even begin(maybe they have begun and this  is the best they can do). Thats  not a good  sign for even a  normal season.

B-This nowhere  man weakie comes from 97L. What does that tell us? In dead seasons storms  have to escape the tropics to develop.

 

What the  hell, 1 more  fun idea

C-Maybe with the wheel to help, 97L will get trapped and  do a  Ginger and  come all the way back to the US coast  and listen to what  JB says  about  how this amazing Super Season will feature in close rapid  feedback development and  turn into a cat  4 just  before hitting Cape Lookout. Yea, thats the ticket!! 100% chance  of that  happening.

 

D-Can we all chip in and pay for California water dumping  Planes to load  up with water and dump them in the  bone dry Atlantic?

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

GFS says 0/0/0 is  very  possible except  for  1 weak nothing  in the  middle  of  nowhwere. I guess the  GOOD news is that would  be another  name. The  bad news? It appears to get stuck in the central atlantic. That  means  killing the  already anemic wave train and flooding the Atlantic with massive  dry air. Oh, the east  pac el nino cane fest  just  keeps  on going. Normally the reason the east  pac slows down in a typical season is a wave will finally develop in the tropical atlantic which in turn ends the wave train entering the east  pac. Absolutely  no sign of that on the  12Z. I seriously  doubt that  1972, 73, 74, 82, 83, 97 looked as  barren as this.

 

Actually, most of those years were barren in the MDR much of the peak season.

[GaWx]

 I just noticed that the sky here in Savannah, GA, is milky and the sun looks filtered. It has the look of smoke or haze. But something about it looks different. Is this possibly from SAL? Anyone know if SAL is currently extending all of the way to the GA and SC coast? If so, this is fascinating as I don't think it gets here all the way here at this intensity more than rarely.

[Low Pressure Lunacy]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I just noticed that the sky here in Savannah, GA, is milky and the sun looks filtered. It has the look of smoke or haze. But something about it looks different. Is this possibly from SAL? Anyone know if SAL is currently extending all of the way to the GA and SC coast? If so, this is fascinating as I don't think it gets here all the way here at this intensity more than rarely.

The Area Forcast Discussion pasted below for the Tampa area mentions the SAL. It is hazy here in the FT Myers/SW Florida area too. You can also see it on the Satellite images.

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TBW&issuedby=TBW&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
246 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Ridging will remain to our north for the rest of the work week
however the bigger factor of the weather across the area will be the
Saharan Dust Layer that will be over the area. This will help to
keep us drier with PW`s generally at or below 1.5. This will help to
shut down almost all of our seabreeze thunderstorm activity for the
rest of the week. However, it is summer so will still keep an
isolated chance of showers and storms each day as a few storms will
manager to get through the drier air.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

5 hours ago, ldub23 said:

GFS says 0/0/0 is  very  possible except  for  1 weak nothing  in the  middle  of  nowhwere. I guess the  GOOD news is that would  be another  name. The  bad news? It appears to get stuck in the central atlantic. That  means  killing the  already anemic wave train and flooding the Atlantic with massive  dry air. Oh, the east  pac el nino cane fest  just  keeps  on going. Normally the reason the east  pac slows down in a typical season is a wave will finally develop in the tropical atlantic which in turn ends the wave train entering the east  pac. Absolutely  no sign of that on the  12Z. I seriously  doubt that  1972, 73, 74, 82, 83, 97 looked as  barren as this.

 

2 more East Pac canes lined up and ready to rumble with more  on the  way in an impressive East Pac El Nino.

 

 

 

Yes, those years were  barren and this season mimics them. 2 more  points.

A- The experts are  now already  telling  us when the  super favorable  conditions will leave the Atlantic before they even begin(maybe they have begun and this  is the best they can do). Thats  not a good  sign for even a  normal season.

B-This nowhere  man weakie comes from 97L. What does that tell us? In dead seasons storms  have to escape the tropics to develop.

 

What the  hell, 1 more  fun idea

C-Maybe with the wheel to help, 97L will get trapped and  do a  Ginger and  come all the way back to the US coast  and listen to what  JB says  about  how this amazing Super Season will feature in close rapid  feedback development and  turn into a cat  4 just  before hitting Cape Lookout. Yea, thats the ticket!! 100% chance  of that  happening.

 

D-Can we all chip in and pay for California water dumping  Planes to load  up with water and dump them in the  bone dry Atlantic?

It might actually rain at my house in Houston after 2+months of 2011 heat/drought.  I'm back to work, can't look at every model, but haven't seen any model support.  But front in the Gulf and light shear.  Probably not the last August front, which bring only a DP drop and no cool air/high winds to rob OHC

[ldub23]

30 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

It might actually rain at my house in Houston after 2+months of 2011 heat/drought.  I'm back to work, can't look at every model, but haven't seen any model support.  But front in the Gulf and light shear.  Probably not the last August front, which bring only a DP drop and no cool air/high winds to rob OHC

Glad you are getting rain and  cooler temps. Im starting to wonder  if  Aug  is  1/0/0 or  even 0/0/0 could  Sept  be  even deader? Could Sept  be  -1/-1/-1?. New CFS just  in and  it  makes the  Sahara look like a tropical paradise compared to the dried  up prune ATL. CSU needs to do an emergency update  to 4/1/0 for  the rest  of  the season. October to the rescue!! I  have been reading where the experts are saying the  super duper favorable  conditions were going to vamoose  in sept. Maybe the ATL will just  dry  up and we can walk to Africa.

 

 

To be fair  here is what  Klotzbach just said. The Atlantic cant do what  he  is  implying  if the  CFS is right. I hope and  pray Phil is right  but im doubtful. Warm SST's are great  but they cant  overcome what the CFS is showing.

Ill go with the 2009 52.6 ace.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

5 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Glad you are getting rain and  cooler temps. Im starting to wonder  if  Aug  is  1/0/0 or  even 0/0/0 could  Sept  be  even deader? Could Sept  be  -1/-1/-1?. New CFS just  in and  it  makes the  Sahara look like a tropical paradise compared to the dried  up prune ATL. CSU needs to do an emergency update  to 4/1/0 for  the rest  of  the season. October to the rescue!! I  have been reading where the experts are saying the  super duper favorable  conditions were going to vamoose  in sept. Maybe the ATL will just  dry  up and we can walk to Africa.

 

You are glass half empty.  The pre-season forecasts are going to bust on NS, but I can see multiple MH landfalling the US in October.  And if a negative tilt trough can capture Hurricane Sandy a week before Halloween, it can get the Mid Atlantic as well.  Hurricane season ends here on the Equinox, 1989 was a sad Jerry, 1949, however, EPac TC crossed the Gulf and hit near Freeport (closer to HOU than CRP) as a high end Cat 2.  So even Texas isn't 100% dead in 6 weeks, just 98% dead.

[StruThiO]

34 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

ill go with the 2009 52.6 ace.

Yeah because we are in a strong El Nino just like 2009!!! Surely there hasn't been record strong Pacific trades, the lowest MEI ever observed except during the La Nina of 2010, historically low ONI etc etc etc etc etc.........................

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, Low Pressure Lunacy said:

The Area Forcast Discussion pasted below for the Tampa area mentions the SAL. It is hazy here in the FT Myers/SW Florida area too. You can also see it on the Satellite images.

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TBW&issuedby=TBW&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
246 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Ridging will remain to our north for the rest of the work week
however the bigger factor of the weather across the area will be the
Saharan Dust Layer that will be over the area. This will help to
keep us drier with PW`s generally at or below 1.5. This will help to
shut down almost all of our seabreeze thunderstorm activity for the
rest of the week. However, it is summer so will still keep an
isolated chance of showers and storms each day as a few storms will
manager to get through the drier air.

Yep, that haze over the coastline is SAL.

As bad as it is though, it was much worse just a few weeks ago.

July 31

 

Today

 

It just…takes time.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Low Pressure Lunacy said:

The Area Forcast Discussion pasted below for the Tampa area mentions the SAL. It is hazy here in the FT Myers/SW Florida area too. You can also see it on the Satellite images.

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=TBW&issuedby=TBW&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
246 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM EDT Wed Aug 10 2022

Ridging will remain to our north for the rest of the work week
however the bigger factor of the weather across the area will be the
Saharan Dust Layer that will be over the area. This will help to
keep us drier with PW`s generally at or below 1.5. This will help to
shut down almost all of our seabreeze thunderstorm activity for the
rest of the week. However, it is summer so will still keep an
isolated chance of showers and storms each day as a few storms will
manager to get through the drier air.

 I just saw this, which was released from the Charleston, SC, WSO about 45 minutes ago and confirms the significant SAL event for here:

  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC  
739 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2022 

FINALLY, A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE SAHARAN DUST HAS SPREAD OFF THE  
ATLANTIC INTO COASTAL SC AND GA, RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF  
HAZE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. JZI IS REPORTING 5SM IN HAZE AS  
A RESULT. UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE DUST LAYER WILL BE WITH US. BUT  
THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES THROUGH  
THURSDAY.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I just saw this, which was released from the Charleston, SC, WSO about 45 minutes ago and confirms the significant SAL event for here:

  
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC  
739 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2022 

FINALLY, A GOOD AMOUNT OF THE SAHARAN DUST HAS SPREAD OFF THE  
ATLANTIC INTO COASTAL SC AND GA, RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF  
HAZE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. JZI IS REPORTING 5SM IN HAZE AS  
A RESULT. UNCLEAR HOW LONG THE DUST LAYER WILL BE WITH US. BUT  
THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES THROUGH  
THURSDAY.

No WiFi during a severe, then tornado warned storm after power failed  (When I married, I gave up the NOAA wx radio for my wife, and the tor warning area should NOT have concluded my neighborhood) storm with power.  Back.  18Z ICON is official model support for old school WxBell Joe Bastardi "home brew warning'.  1006 mb storm, probably named (Danielle, I can see it again in 2028) @ldub23is daily post limited, and I know the ICON is a bit Canadian in the tropics, but...  Glass 1/64th full.

[yoda]

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Current state of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season:
 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I just noticed that the sky here in Savannah, GA, is milky and the sun looks filtered. It has the look of smoke or haze. But something about it looks different. Is this possibly from SAL? Anyone know if SAL is currently extending all of the way to the GA and SC coast? If so, this is fascinating as I don't think it gets here all the way here at this intensity more than rarely.

I am in Orlando Florida and the Saharan Dust is well entrenched here.  The skies were actually hazy brown there especially in the morning.  During the afternoon the skies were milky, and the clouds were fuzzy looking.  We had a few showers here today, but the towers were clearly being choked off from the Saharan Dust today.  I am heading up to Charleston SC on Sunday by then the Sarhan dust will be punched Southeast ward by the cold front coming down crazy August cold front going to make it to Floriday by Sunday.

[ldub23]

Sad that  in the  middle  of what supposed to be a  very active season we get to read  about  dust  in FLA.

 

JB is starting to go wobbly. Says we "should" see  activity  pick up but  for the  first time this season brings  up a  model saying  nothing  will happen. JB  is  beginning the  process  of  backtracking. 0/0/0 Aug? Followed  by a  0/0/0 Sept??. All JB is doing  now  is reciting  climo. Its AUG 11. Things damn well better  pick up.

Oh, if this  is  phase 2 in the Atlantic what does an unfavorable  phase  look like?

 

Oh, again what does an unfavorable  phase  of the MJO look like? If we are  in phase 2 now  maybe  we  need  phase  17.38

 

Does  phase 2 look like this? I am so rooting  for  a  0/0/0 Aug.

 

 

Oh, and  look at the African coast. Waves will come  off too far  north to matter anyway.

My guess  is the  only  place we MAY see development  in the Sahara is just  off the African coast. If a strong wave can time its splash down into the atlantic with a  brief  pocket  of  moisture it  might  spin up into a weak nothing  before  it  bebops  north or croaks  of thirst.

[NorthHillsWx]

EPS is absurdly quiet for mid-late august. There’s no denying that

[Prospero]

I went to bed last night leaving some things outside with a very low chance of rain for Tampa Bay. I woke up at 2:20 AM to thunder and checked radar on my phone, got up and got everything inside just in time. I woke up again at 5:00 am to a second thunderstorm. Now I am looking at sats and waiting for a surprise system to form in the northern GOM today or tomorrow...

 

[Drummer]

6 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I went to bed last night leaving some things outside with a very low chance of rain for Tampa Bay. I woke up at 2:20 AM to thunder and checked radar on my phone, got up and got everything inside just in time. I woke up again at 5:00 am to a second thunderstorm. Now I am looking at sats and waiting for a surprise system to form in the northern GOM today or tomorrow...

 

[Chinook]

The Atlantic is pathetic

Quote

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 11 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

58 minutes ago, Prospero said:

I went to bed last night leaving some things outside with a very low chance of rain for Tampa Bay. I woke up at 2:20 AM to thunder and checked radar on my phone, got up and got everything inside just in time. I woke up again at 5:00 am to a second thunderstorm. Now I am looking at sats and waiting for a surprise system to form in the northern GOM today or tomorrow...

 

18Z ICON has a 1006 mb TD/TS making landfall near Houston.  Pre-frontal trough over water and light shear.  Zero support from ECENS, one 12Z GFS perturbation supports a weak TC.  1 of 30, glass 3.3% glass full on 'home brew'.  OT, my house in N. Houston, first eyeball estimated severe t-storm of 2022.  NWS upgrade svr to tornado, but my house should not have been in that polygon.  2 inches general rain, more than combined June/July rain, maybe we move down a drought category.  2011 and wildfires, thousands of homes in mostly rural areas burned, severe dead in the various fires.  Fires W of AUS 11 years ago would be in areas the city has expanded into.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

7 minutes ago, Chinook said:

The Atlantic is pathetic

 

I was old enough to be an adult working offshore Louisiana, hired in 1997.  56 k phone modem for CSU/Gray seasonal forecast.  ENSO long range forecasting just wasn't good.  Above average season predicted, 0 NS in August.  D storm (Danny!) by July, including a US Cat 1 landfall, dead after.  If weenies survived 1997, they'll survive 2022.  I never made a hurricane rig evacuation.

[Normandy]

Eating my popcorn watching this unfold.  Idub looking strong today!

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, Normandy said:

Eating my popcorn watching this unfold.  Idub looking strong today!

When JB threw  in the towel earlier this  morning i knew things were looking  OK. There will still be a few storms, i think anyway. As  i said earlier a  nothing  can spin up just off the African coast. IF,and  i do mean IF, a wheel forms and  locks  in then its  possible to get  something in the  bahamas or  NE GOM.

 

Something else  i noticed. For quite some time  Dr Knabb has been saying the  favorable  conditions were going to leave the  EAST PAC and  move  over the Atlantic. He wasnt  using  climo. It was going to happen. Then 3 days ago he started to talk about  how  CLIMO said the atlantic would get  more active. We can still have a  1 storm season where 1 storm manages to make  it thru.

[NorthHillsWx]

56 minutes ago, Normandy said:

Eating my popcorn watching this unfold.  Idub looking strong today!

He/she may be looking at the upset pick of the year, for August at least. 

[SnoSki14]

I mean though a quiet season would be extremely boring, it would be good for everyone dealing with high energy prices & inflation this year. 

However I'm still waiting for August 20-22th. That's the period when the switch normally happens and you'd be surprised how quickly the tides can turn.