2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Wait, rainstorm is ldub?  I thought they were different people.

 Absolutely. Posting style is identical. Also, both have the Norfolk/VA Beach area as home. He or she has amazing longevity for that kind of posting! Like others have said, this person is legendary among trolls. 
 

 @Torch Tiger Yes, thanks for reminding me. Rainstorm absolutely did have a heart avatar and now I clearly remember it! That was after having the lady with the U.S. flag scarf avatar, which I recall from when jxdama was the name used at WW.

[cptcatz]

Now this might be the most interesting thing a model has shown this season, even if it may be 384 hours out...

[SnoSki14]

6 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Im cancelling the Fast and Furious watch and replacing  it with a Dry as a bone warning. I feel sorry  for the  poor waves in Africa. Before they head  off the  coast  into the Sahara i hope they have their  wills  up to date. At  least  i can see signs  of the wheel showing  up. East  pac  has 3 areas  of  interest and 1 hurricane while the ATL has this.

This is actually not good because it'll favor development close to home whereas most central & eastern Atlantic storms would recurve. 

[hlcater]

pretty weak sauce rn

[StormchaserChuck!]

Starting point?

[ldub23]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

This is actually not good because it'll favor development close to home whereas most central & eastern Atlantic storms would recurve. 

The wheel seems to be there but there is  nothing that can take advantage  of  it. 97L just  has  no chance and while  18Z  had a  hurricane cruising west after 97, 0Z is  much weaker and  north. East pac  continues to roar  on with cane after  cane. Im sure by sept 05 conditions will improve.

[StormchaserChuck!]

No reason the season shouldn't explode... we're average like 20TS in a La Nina since 1995/2000... 

[Seminole]

SAL is just brutal out there. 

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

 

[ldub23]

97L bites the dust. Ive  issued a Slow and Tame  warning. There are some  changes  in the  pattern. Texas will get wetter, the east  is  cooling and the wheel might  be  coming. Maybe  by sept  10 the tropics will be active.

[NorthHillsWx]

I do not see anything that is changing in the Atlantic over the next 10 days that points to a switch flipping. Rinse, wash, repeat. Waves of anomalous SAL and any disturbances getting dried up, just like the current one. I seriously doubt this makes it through the month, but that is purely based on climatology and the thought that something has to change. There is no hard evidence that a change to active is coming any time soon. 

[SnoSki14]

32 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

97L bites the dust. Ive  issued a Slow and Tame  warning.

I disagree. I think this one can develop over time. Each day that passes climo works in its favor. 

MJO moving to a more favorable phase 2 as well

[MJO812]

52 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

97L bites the dust. Ive  issued a Slow and Tame  warning. There are some  changes  in the  pattern. Texas will get wetter, the east  is  cooling and the wheel might  be  coming. Maybe  by sept  10 the tropics will be active.

Dude you are a broken record

[Cary_Snow95]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

I disagree. I think this one can develop over time. Each day that passes climo works in its favor. 

MJO moving to a more favorable phase 2 as well

It’s moving into a harsh environment with high shear soon and dry air is already having its way. 

[Modfan2]

3 hours ago, Seminole said:

SAL is just brutal out there. 

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

 

This; in my past 10 years in S FL I cannot remember a summer being this dry on the East Coast and water temps from the boat are running 82-84 and 86 in the Gulf Stream which is a little cool for this time of year.
 

Obviously things can and will change but Fl East coast cities are running 5-8” rain deficits in the middle of rainy season. 

[MJO812]

JB latest forecast has the east coast on high risk of a tropical system for the rest of the summer.

[dan11295]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

JB latest forecast has the east coast on high risk of a tropical system for the rest of the summer.

When doesn't it? 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I'd take the under on TSR's 18 NS, but with abnormally high OHC and a busy October forecast, their 3 MH seems quite likely.

 

97L isn't dead, just pining for the fjords. and in JB mode, wave in Western Caribbean is badly sheared and not forecast to do much, but an August cold front is 3 days away, GFS shows moisture pooling in the Northern Gulf, under not unfavorable shear, and a Colin-esque quick spin up anywhere from SE Texas across the Gulf to off the SC/GA/FL coast can happen.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, dan11295 said:

When doesn't it? 

 Good point as that seems to be his default, but to fair I know there was one year recently when JB didn't go high risk for the east coast. Personally, whereas I think the east coast should by no means relax especially this early in the season (I'm wary about the danger, myself, but I am most years and also hope for the best), my highest direct hit risk area per analogs and the recent pattern remains the NE GOM, especially around FL.

Edit: I just checked and in 2021 he had the upper east coast at well above average risk. The NE got directly hit by 2 TS, which is above the average of 1 or fewer TC hits for the upper US east coast. So, I give him a win there for 2021.

More updates: 2020: He had an active season overall but I'm not sure of his impact forecast for the NE US. It appears he did pretty well overall.

2019: he had a somewhat weak season forecasted and it appears he also had a lower impact forecast for the NE US. So, I think this is that recent year I was referring to. ACE turned out to be 132 and Dorian was a beast, but the upper east coast did get off lightly. So, I guess he did ok overall.

 "From this point of view it looks like a down year in at least the Main Development Region and less of a year farther to the north than last year. The caveat is that in-close systems and warm water feedback will lead to challenges that can make or break the season from an impact perspective. On the high end, if the El Niño isn't impressive we could see activity in line with last year, hence the relatively broad range. I have a feel for where below average intensity of storms relative to normal will be, but the term "scattershot" describes the idea of stronger features away from the Deep Tropics this year."

 https://www.weatherbell.com/april-hurricane-season-outlook

2018: "WeatherBELL.com is forecasting in between a BELOW to ABOVE average Season with 11-15 named storms, 5-7 hurricanes which 1-3 of those becoming major hurricanes and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 90-110. WeatherBELL says as far as impact, unlike last year when we plainly had the U.S. in the cross-hairs, this year it looks like the U.S. will be on the western edge of the highest ACE area (50% or more). This will extend between 30°N and 40°N from the U.S. coast to 55°W. If I had to draw it today, the centering of the area of greatest activity would not be like last year. Look for storms to be stronger farther to the north and east than 2017."

 https://www.trackthetropics.com/hurricane-season-2018-forecasts/

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

11 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Good point as that seems to be his default, but to fair I know there was one year recently when JB didn't go high risk for the east coast.

I don't subscribe to WxBell anymore, my intro rate was tripled, but even JB's PPV comments were as likely to be political rants as a forecast discussion, using analogues.  Which he used to do at AccuWx.  Used analogues extensively, usually well, occasional busts like 'Houston, We Have a Problem' for Rita.  What I see on Twitter now is a pet model, the Japanese or Korean, or maybe the Australian, to highlight/hype a threat.   Or politics.

 

SE Texas bias along with MA and NEUSA, he lived in College Station as a boy when his dad was going to A&M.

 

But, when I was an subscriber, maybe 5 or 10 years ago, he did predict a below average hurricane season.  And I did my version of a JB homebrew hype threat for the front into the Gulf under reasonable shear.  I don't see model support, but first day of work for 22-23 and my lunch is brief.

[StormchaserChuck!]

I think we'll have an active October, but this isn't redeveloping west, all we have is the La Nina-name

[floridapirate]

3 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

This; in my past 10 years in S FL I cannot remember a summer being this dry on the East Coast and water temps from the boat are running 82-84 and 86 in the Gulf Stream which is a little cool for this time of year.
 

Obviously things can and will change but Fl East coast cities are running 5-8” rain deficits in the middle of rainy season. 

I live near New Smyrna Beach and we have had less than 4" of rain in the last 6 weeks.  This is supposed to be the rainy season

 

[Seminole]

4 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

This; in my past 10 years in S FL I cannot remember a summer being this dry on the East Coast and water temps from the boat are running 82-84 and 86 in the Gulf Stream which is a little cool for this time of year.
 

Obviously things can and will change but Fl East coast cities are running 5-8” rain deficits in the middle of rainy season. 

The past 2 weeks have been very dry around the coast of the big bend. We have storms build but don't drop rain until inland. The past 2 days have been a return to normal but like you this is our rainy season. 

[etudiant]

5 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I don't subscribe to WxBell anymore, my intro rate was tripled, but even JB's PPV comments were as likely to be political rants as a forecast discussion, using analogues.  Which he used to do at AccuWx.  Used analogues extensively, usually well, occasional busts like 'Houston, We Have a Problem' for Rita.  What I see on Twitter now is a pet model, the Japanese or Korean, or maybe the Australian, to highlight/hype a threat.   Or politics.

 

SE Texas bias along with MA and NEUSA, he lived in College Station as a boy when his dad was going to A&M.

 

But, when I was an subscriber, maybe 5 or 10 years ago, he did predict a below average hurricane season.  And I did my version of a JB homebrew hype threat for the front into the Gulf under reasonable shear.  I don't see model support, but first day of work for 22-23 and my lunch is brief.

Same here, although in fairness I found the discussions much more worthwhile than the specific forecasts.

If they offered a discounted 'discussions only' rate, I'd be tempted to resubscribe.

That said, I've nothing but respect for JB, he called Sandy correctly in the face of much disparagement. I know forecasts are really hard, we can't even get the five day call reasonably correct, so I admire anyone who sometimes is blessed with understanding.

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, etudiant said:

Same here, although in fairness I found the discussions much more worthwhile than the specific forecasts.

If they offered a discounted 'discussions only' rate, I'd be tempted to resubscribe.

That said, I've nothing but respect for JB, he called Sandy correctly in the face of much disparagement. I know forecasts are really hard, we can't even get the five day call reasonably correct, so I admire anyone who sometimes is blessed with understanding.

Well said. JB is  the role  model for  many.

[SnoSki14]

9 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Well said. JB is  the role  model for  many.

Lmao what. JB is one of the worst forecasters ever. He says the same thing every year so sure eventually something will stick. 

He also called for global cooling in the 2010s, talk about a miss. He's a major climate change denier or skeptic as well. 

[KChuck]

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Lmao what. JB is one of the worst forecasters ever. He says the same thing every year so sure eventually something will stick. 

He also called for global cooling in the 2010s, talk about a miss. He's a major climate change denier or skeptic as well. 

A blind squirrel finds a nut now and then!

A broken clock is right twice a day.

etc. etc.

[WxWatcher007]

Basin still sucks right now. 

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Basin still sucks right now. 

Looks  like the wheel is  going to be wasted. At  least it will be  cooler  here. Give  JB credit for the wheel but  will it  only  last a week? I hope  it  lasts  for  3 months  like the Trof did. 0/0/0 still on the table  for  August. Something weak might  pop up but zip for  August  would  be pretty  cool.

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2022081000/slp8.png

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

The fact a 0-0-0 August is even still on the table 10 days into the month with no sign of change is absolutely shocking from what the preseason prognostics seemed to indicate for this season. While I’m sure we will get a named system and possibly a few (it’s long range models folks, they suck) this does not have the look or feel of the hyperactive season that many forecasts indicated. I think that’s officially off the table. An active season is still in reach but the clock is ticking. If we burn through august without a hurricane (unlikely) then September and October are going to have to be nuts, not just above average, and there’s nothing concrete that supports that 

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The fact a 0-0-0 August is even still on the table 10 days into the month with no sign of change is absolutely shocking from what the preseason prognostics seemed to indicate for this season. While I’m sure we will get a named system and possibly a few (it’s long range models folks, they suck) this does not have the look or feel of the hyperactive season that many forecasts indicated. I think that’s officially off the table. An active season is still in reach but the clock is ticking. If we burn through august without a hurricane (unlikely) then September and October are going to have to be nuts, not just above average, and there’s nothing concrete that supports that 

 Third year La Niña climo ftw? Of the 8 analogs, none has had an ACE higher than 135 and that includes the 119 of 2000, which is as good an analog as any to me. Also, July SSTA maps for 2000 and 2022 are fairly similar.

 Regardless, until we have a better handle on the next 10 days, the door is still wide open to an active (though not hyper imho) season. When I say active, I mean ACE in the general vicinity of 120 and maybe as high as 140ish. We could easily end up with an eastern MDR storm around August 20th (which could end up a dangerous storm that gets far west in the basin per the progged setup as well as history) along with more storms soon afterward. But if we were to get to August 20th with still no new TCs as well as then looking very quiet on models, then a quiet season becomes a significantly higher possibility. It would be amazing if it were to happen in La Niña during this active era! It is fun to see the experts stumped as unpredictability is what keeps long range weather forecasting interesting and a challenge. Keep in mind that only three seasons since 1995 have had fewer than 3 August NS and two of them were El Niño.