Cary_Snow95 Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 GFS coming in much weaker and more realistic imo. Think we will see euro and gfs begin to agree on a weak TD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 Next weekend, ICON and GFS see a wave moving into the Gulf, the ICON closes it to a depression or weak storm. I am aware the ICON is like the Canadian, but the GFS sees the ICON wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 The models showing so little Cape Verde activity is interesting (and spooky, because perhaps this will be a west based peak season). Will have to watch closely and see if this comes to fruition over the rest of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 Meanwhile, this latest super wave has trended weaker and weaker on all models. At the very best its a short lived nothing. This wasnt advertised as a season without MDR canes. As far as that group of showers off the se coast if this were just a normal season it might have a chance to sit there and develop. It isnt a normal season, its a dead season with a huge west ATL trof. That means nothing will be able to be trapped off the se coast and develop. For that to happen you need a locked in High over the NW ATL. With a trof all you can possibly get is a very weak strung out low ripping NE with no chance to be anything more than a weak depression that CANT threaten the US. Here is a perfect example of what this hideous pattern can produce. What do we see? The never ending trof off the coast is what we see with another trof ripping east to reinforce it. On the offshore trof we have 2 very weak lows trying to form, but thats all they can ever be because there is no blocking high to keep them in place to develop. They just get stretched out NE and will never amount to anything. And once once once once again the whole pattern, no moisture in the MDR, mega west atl trof, all models agreeing there will be no MDR season, and the latest ballyhooed wave never amounting to anything makes the CFS quite believable. I will leave you all on a positive note however. See that one blue line in the upper right corner? Thats winter baby!! That will eventually put an early end to this miserable bust of a season. *It would certainly be nice if some of the pro mets on here can explain how the season is still going to be active. And here is the map 24 hours later. We see the same 2 areas that were trying to develop. They CANT and WONT because yet again we have a monster trof blasting off the east coast. Even in the totally dead season of 1986 we had hurricane Charley form off NC and hit as a cat1 in NC and SE VA because it had time to organize. I have alot of respect for Larry Cosgrove. He has been the only met who early on recognized the reality of the season. https://groups.google.com/g/weatheramerica/c/gT3GLZPcgow "The major islands, Caribbean Sea nations, and the Eastern Seaboard all have prominent windows for a named storm or hurricane strike in a window between August 23 and October 15. But I will repeat that the number of storms will likely be reduced from the two years past, since the Maximum Development Region convection will be reduced, and chances for a Gulf Coast impact are crushed because the heat ridge complex will either be over Texas or the "Four Corners". Steering and subsidence can greatly reduce your chances at seeing a prominent tropical cyclone. Despite whatever you read on an internet weather forum or because waters near your community are incredibly warm." I hope he is right about the eastern seaboard though that wont happen unless or until a locked in ridge replaces the trof. He is certainly right about a Gulf coast impact being highly unlikely. Finally its LC vs JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 Can't wait til ldub eats his/her words. I'm just gonna leave this post here from August 10, 2017 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Can't wait til ldub eats his/her words. I'm just gonna leave this post here from August 10, 2017 Year after year, the dumbest takes. Said it before, I remember them from easternuswx and maybe even wright-weather "rainstorm VA" or something like that. lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 1 hour ago, cptcatz said: Can't wait til ldub eats his/her words. I'm just gonna leave this post here from August 10, 2017 Joe, much like David , are excellent at discussing the Synoptics of what is required for hurricanes and big snows but they are both poor in assessing if the upcoming situation is what will produce one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 22 hours ago, ldub23 said: Atlantic ridge totally gone. Just when the experts are all in unison on the favorable conditions arriving we get stuck with a massive central atlantic low and no ridging. What a piece of crap dead season. Have the "experts been more wrong? DT-"August will be sideways" NOPE JB-Fast and furious watch-NOPE Another 1954-NOPE The Wheel-NOPE CSU-18/8/4 Still way too high At least winter time conditions will arrive early putting an end to the Non-season. Next up: The super duper awesome fantastic favorable condidtions will arrive by Sept 15. Without ridging it doesnt matter how many canes form. Its all zippity doo dah bebop east of Bermuda. And while the Atlantic ridge said "So long, Suckers" the overall pattern remains. Mega west ATL trof. This is why im confident of a very early ending season. Why do you want storms? They are destructive. Seems we should be embracing a quiet season, if we end up with one. Side note, I am heading New Orleans in early September, so I am welcoming a slow season. I have been checking this forum to see what may be going on as September approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 1 hour ago, Ahoff said: Why do you want storms? They are destructive. Seems we should be embracing a quiet season, if we end up with one. Side note, I am heading New Orleans in early September, so I am welcoming a slow season. I have been checking this forum to see what may be going on as September approaches. Big weather obsession...If ya look closely, it's all over these boards, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said: Big weather obsession...If ya look closely, it's all over these boards, lol Rooting for hyperactive seasons is weird considering the increased risks for death if the storm hits land. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Rooting for hyperactive seasons is weird considering the increased risks for death if the storm hits land. Why are any of us on this website if we don't enjoy watching the extremes of weather? The way I see it, it makes no difference what you root for since it has zero impact on what will happen. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 Let’s save the annual morality debate until there’s actually a storm please. 5 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 Given how bearish the board is I was suprised to see our AOI off of Africa looking pretty healthy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 21 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: Given how bearish the board is I was suprised to see our AOI off of Africa looking pretty healthy I'm still giving it a 2 in 3 shot at becoming at least a TD. The board may not be as bearish as you think once you ignore the troll. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StruThiO Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 2 hours ago, tiger_deF said: Given how bearish the board is Buy low; sell high. My $MDR calls about to print big boy bucks :] 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 9 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Year after year, the dumbest takes. Said it before, I remember them from easternuswx and maybe even wright-weather "rainstorm VA" or something like that. lol Way back in the WW days (~20 years ago), this poster went by the name "jxdama" with what I recall was an avatar of a woman with an American flag scarf. That may have covered 2003, when he/she got blasted by Isabel in the VA Beach/Norfolk area after giving the entire east coast the all clear just a few days before. Thankfully he/she was ok. At some point, he or she began posting as the infamous and everyone's favorite "rainstorm", possibly with the same avatar but I'm not sure. I can't recall if this name change was when Eastern started or before, but I'm guessing it was when Eastern started. This poster used to also post at Storm2k with a different name. @WEATHER53 may remember a lot of this. jx/rs/ldub is "world renowned" to be about as "good" a troll as they come and I admit sometimes makes me laugh because it is often so over the top/silly. The key is to not take the posts too seriously. I bet ldub is often laughing bigtime behind the scenes. By the way, I think he/she really is quite smart and knowledgeable despite the trolling dumb takes. One year rainstorm actually won the Eastern tropical contest! I remember because I ran it. I don't think it was even close. It was hilarious! Rainstorm won it because it was she/he picked pretty bearish and it turned out to be the most bearish season in years. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 1 hour ago, GaWx said: Way back in the WW days (~20 years ago), this poster went by the name "jxdama" with what I recall was an avatar of a woman with an American flag scarf. That may have covered 2003, when he/she got blasted by Isabel in the VA Beach/Norfolk area after giving the entire east coast the all clear just a few days before. Thankfully he/she was ok. At some point, he or she began posting as the infamous and everyone's favorite "rainstorm", possibly with the same avatar but I'm not sure. I can't recall if this name change was when Eastern started or before, but I'm guessing it was when Eastern started. This poster used to also post at Storm2k with a different name. @WEATHER53 may remember a lot of this. jx/rs/ldub is "world renowned" to be about as "good" a troll as they come and I admit sometimes makes me laugh because it is often so over the top/silly. The key is to not take the posts too seriously. I bet ldub is often laughing bigtime behind the scenes. By the way, I think he/she really is quite smart and knowledgeable despite the trolling dumb takes. One year rainstorm actually won the Eastern tropical contest! I remember because I ran it. I don't think it was even close. It was hilarious! Rainstorm won it because it was she/he picked pretty bearish and it turned out to be the most bearish season in years. over-the-top is right. I think they had a heart shaped avatar for a while. You have to think there is something type of damage or fragmented mental state to do it for 20 years straight, though. There's not even a wide audience for the trolling anymore here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 11 hours ago, cptcatz said: Why are any of us on this website if we don't enjoy watching the extremes of weather? The way I see it, it makes no difference what you root for since it has zero impact on what will happen. Well said, and tornado chasers beg and pray for F5's to get videos to sell. Winter weather kills more than hurricanes. Sunny weather kills people.. Now here is the perfect pattern and the GFS has a cat 2 almost on top of me. But, somehow it doesnt get turned by the low at 240 hours and the GFS has been showing canes here and there for several weeks. At 0Z it had a storm hitting the GOM thata gone at 06Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 bust 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 Awful boring season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 23 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Awful boring season August just started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drummer Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 Even I, someone who wasn't gifted with much intelligence, knows not to call the season a "bust" or "boring" in early August. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 3 hours ago, ldub23 said: Winter weather kills more than hurricanes Any statistics to back that up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 As expected GFS is trending towards other guidance with a weaker system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 2 hours ago, Cary_Snow95 said: As expected GFS is trending towards other guidance with a weaker system Nothingburger in a sea of dry air with the locked and loaded central atlantic low making this 1983. If this is the best this crummy clump of clouds can do i dont count this as the beginning of the season. Nothing behind the wave either due to the central atlantic low. Amazing that i wanted a pattern change and got one, and it was even worse than before, lol. This is the peak of the season? Nothing? Oh, and this is for the ghouls who pray for snow and cold in the winter. Each year in the United States, about 1,330 people die of cold exposure, essentially freezing to death. You may picture outdoor adventurers dying of hypothermia on snowy mountaintops. While rates are higher in rural areas, many cold-related deaths and illnesses occur in cities too. www.publichealthpost.org/research/counting-cold-related-deaths-new-york-city/ The Dangers of Cold Weather - Public Health Post For some reason this picture wont display but if you click on it the ATL is as dead as a rusty doorknob. BUT!!! IS THAT A WHEEL IM SEEING? http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2022080812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=192hr 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: This is the peak of the season? Nothing? No, August 8 is not the peak of the season. It's not even a month away from the peak of the season. Try again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 End of Euro continues to advertise major outbreaks of dry air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 17 minutes ago, cptcatz said: No, August 8 is not the peak of the season. It's not even a month away from the peak of the season. Try again. This is literally me everytime he posts::: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 41 minutes ago, Cary_Snow95 said: End of Euro continues to advertise major outbreaks of dry air Im cancelling the Fast and Furious watch and replacing it with a Dry as a bone warning. I feel sorry for the poor waves in Africa. Before they head off the coast into the Sahara i hope they have their wills up to date. At least i can see signs of the wheel showing up. East pac has 3 areas of interest and 1 hurricane while the ATL has this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 8, 2022 Share Posted August 8, 2022 15 hours ago, GaWx said: Way back in the WW days (~20 years ago), this poster went by the name "jxdama" with what I recall was an avatar of a woman with an American flag scarf. That may have covered 2003, when he/she got blasted by Isabel in the VA Beach/Norfolk area after giving the entire east coast the all clear just a few days before. Thankfully he/she was ok. At some point, he or she began posting as the infamous and everyone's favorite "rainstorm", possibly with the same avatar but I'm not sure. I can't recall if this name change was when Eastern started or before, but I'm guessing it was when Eastern started. This poster used to also post at Storm2k with a different name. @WEATHER53 may remember a lot of this. jx/rs/ldub is "world renowned" to be about as "good" a troll as they come and I admit sometimes makes me laugh because it is often so over the top/silly. The key is to not take the posts too seriously. I bet ldub is often laughing bigtime behind the scenes. By the way, I think he/she really is quite smart and knowledgeable despite the trolling dumb takes. One year rainstorm actually won the Eastern tropical contest! I remember because I ran it. I don't think it was even close. It was hilarious! Rainstorm won it because it was she/he picked pretty bearish and it turned out to be the most bearish season in years. Wait, rainstorm is ldub? I thought they were different people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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