StruThiO Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: Did someone say the super duper awesome fantastic conditions were coming? East Pac says this is a super el nino. This is horrific for MDR development. A cat 5 cut off low wandering around the middle of the Atlantic. Tropics killer TICK, TICK, TICK. CSU should have went 6/3/1 for the rest of the season and we might not make that with a very real probability The Fast and Furious watch will be cancelled, no wheel, no euro super ridge, and the east pac popping canes like bees to honey. k. meanwhile 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 1 hour ago, StruThiO said: k. meanwhile This is the MDR wave that many of us have been discussing since it has been on many ensemble member runs of the various ensembles the last few days. It doesn't take the "super duper awesome fantastic" conditions ldub referred to for this to occur. Normal mid August climo conditions are all that is needed. So, this is quite believable imho. Also, before ldub says anything: IF it were to not form, it wouldn't portend much about later in the month and beyond. IF this were to form and IF this were to recurve safely away from land, that wouldn't portend much for the remainder of the season either as many TCs that form that far east do just that even during La Nina and even during mid-August. Then again, safe recurve chances are near the lowest of the season around mid August (even though they're not small) and those chances are generally lower during La Nina vs other ENSO. So, one to watch for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 The 12Z EPS is much more active with this MDR wave vs the last several EPS runs and is likely the most active run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 3 minutes ago, GaWx said: the 12Z EPS is much more active with this MDR wave vs the last several EPS run and is likely the most active run so far. Like clockwork ensembles are starting to light up as we approach the heart of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 5, 2022 Share Posted August 5, 2022 The good news and the bad news. The good news is both the GFS and Euro develop a very weak low that might be a short lived TD/TS. But then they run into very unfavorable conditions in the west atl and poof. This overall pattern remains horrific for anything worth following. Gigantic low in the central ATL plunging more dry air into the tropics. Mega trof remains entrenched along and off the east coast. Nothing fast and furious about this pattern. If that low locks in then there is no hurricane season. Looks like the MJO and the moisture is still locked and loaded in the east pac. Not sure i have seen a worse looking map in mid AUG for tropical development. For whats its worth that super central atlantic low should cause additional warming in the tropical sst's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted August 6, 2022 Share Posted August 6, 2022 7 hours ago, bigtenfan said: Funny thing about this forum. I can always tell what the latest turn of events is with regard to the Atlantic Hurricane Season by who has the last post If the last post is from IDUB then the latest thinking is bearish. If the last post is from Cptcatz thanthe latest thinking is bullish lol I didn't think I come across too bullish. But... 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: The good news and the bad news. The good news is both the GFS and Euro develop a very weak low that might be a short lived TD/TS. But then they run into very unfavorable conditions in the west atl and poof. This overall pattern remains horrific for anything worth following. Gigantic low in the central ATL plunging more dry air into the tropics. Mega trof remains entrenched along and off the east coast. Nothing fast and furious about this pattern. If that low locks in then there is no hurricane season. Looks like the MJO and the moisture is still locked and loaded in the east pac. Not sure i have seen a worse looking map in mid AUG for tropical development. For whats its worth that super central atlantic low should cause additional warming in the tropical sst's. I'll do my part with a bullish response here. Models are starting to come into agreement that cyclogenesis will occur in about 4-5 days. Then you're talking about what conditions might look like in 10+ days. Models have zero idea what conditions look like 10 days down the road. Whenever I think of that, I always go back to Dorian. Here were the EPS 10 day ensembles: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 6, 2022 Share Posted August 6, 2022 6 hours ago, GaWx said: The 12Z EPS is much more active with this MDR wave vs the last several EPS runs and is likely the most active run so far. Yeah, the signal was subtle but may be getting stronger. Let’s see what rolls off Africa. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 6, 2022 Share Posted August 6, 2022 Lemon on the wave expected to move off Africa this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 6, 2022 Share Posted August 6, 2022 Patience my friends 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary_Snow95 Posted August 6, 2022 Share Posted August 6, 2022 Wave breaking continues to wreak havoc on the MDR. Mid Latitude dry air is being consistently driven into the MDR. Latest Euro further strengthens the sub tropical low sending a surge of dry air south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 6, 2022 Share Posted August 6, 2022 Wave breaking continues to wreak havoc on the MDR. Mid Latitude dry air is being consistently driven into the MDR. Latest Euro further strengthens the sub tropical low sending a surge of dry air south That is in the mid- levels however. Though may help to relax the screaming Azores to Saharan link in 700hpa easterly jet for those trains of SAL intrusions. At any rate, we typically see wave breaking slow down around early August as WAR heights increase. If anything, this particular Azores low may allow the ITCZ to gain some latitude before SPHP cell rebuilds. Watching these perturbations play out for years prior to the MDR/CV flips. I think there might be some slight potential for MDR development next week, but I'm not really expecting any substantial increase in activity until around the 21st. The environment is just not there yet. That AEW the models have latched onto needs to have a really good low-level moisture envelope around it and a well established surface low. We'll see in a few days... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 6, 2022 Share Posted August 6, 2022 4 hours ago, Cary_Snow95 said: Wave breaking continues to wreak havoc on the MDR. Mid Latitude dry air is being consistently driven into the MDR. Latest Euro further strengthens the sub tropical low sending a surge of dry air south Atlantic ridge totally gone. Just when the experts are all in unison on the favorable conditions arriving we get stuck with a massive central atlantic low and no ridging. What a piece of crap dead season. Have the "experts been more wrong? DT-"August will be sideways" NOPE JB-Fast and furious watch-NOPE Another 1954-NOPE The Wheel-NOPE CSU-18/8/4 Still way too high At least winter time conditions will arrive early putting an end to the Non-season. Next up: The super duper awesome fantastic favorable condidtions will arrive by Sept 15. Without ridging it doesnt matter how many canes form. Its all zippity doo dah bebop east of Bermuda. And while the Atlantic ridge said "So long, Suckers" the overall pattern remains. Mega west ATL trof. This is why im confident of a very early ending season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 6, 2022 Share Posted August 6, 2022 Unless they form further west. Most MDR storms end up fish regardless. It does look like SNE is gonna miss out this year though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 25 minutes ago, Normandy said: Unless they form further west. Most MDR storms end up fish regardless. It does look like SNE is gonna miss out this year though Too early to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 Code Orange now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 Looks to me like all is going according to how it has looked in recent days with a good chance (I think it is now up to 2/3 chance) for an MDR TC to form in less than a week. That would still be only August 13th or earlier with four NS with the most active two month period climowise still just ahead of then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 Euro a bit less enthusiastic on the wave. However JB says it "MAY" get hyperactive "In close" will be hard to get unless the mega trof is replaced with the Wheel. Meanwhile the East Pac is hyperactive with 3 lined up and more on the way. For a hyperactive atl that will also have to change. WOW!!!!!!!!!! GFS showing the first wintertime low ripping across the eastern US. Earlier than even i thought Meanwhile, even though the "experts" insist the tropics are primed to come alive the Euro is pathetic thru Aug22. Lets face it, anyone now saying the tropics are going to come alive are just repeating climo, nothing more. They sure as hell better come alive if there is going to be a season. Finally at hour 384 we have 1 trof protective trof off the coast while yet another one is slamming east to replace it. 54 this aint. The whole US coast is snug as a bug in a rug with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 3 hours ago, ldub23 said: Euro a bit less enthusiastic on the wave. However JB says it "MAY" get hyperactive "In close" will be hard to get unless the mega trof is replaced with the Wheel. Meanwhile the East Pac is hyperactive with 3 lined up and more on the way. For a hyperactive atl that will also have to change. WOW!!!!!!!!!! GFS showing the first wintertime low ripping across the eastern US. Earlier than even i thought Meanwhile, even though the "experts" insist the tropics are primed to come alive the Euro is pathetic thru Aug22. Lets face it, anyone now saying the tropics are going to come alive are just repeating climo, nothing more. They sure as hell better come alive if there is going to be a season. Finally at hour 384 we have 1 trof protective trof off the coast while yet another one is slamming east to replace it. 54 this aint. The whole US coast is snug as a bug in a rug with this pattern. I take those long range forecasts with a grain of salt but those fronts sagging that far south this early in the season is not the norm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 I found this on another site. The CFS says everyone yelling about the favorable condidtions coming are nuts. It has 1 weak nothing between aug 20-sept 26. 0/0/0 Sept possible? Pretty amazing really. A few days after CSU says 18/8/4. NOAA about the same, and JB issues a fast and furious watch and just this morning implies hyperactive is coming the CFS takes a dump on them saying 1 nothing between Aug20 and Sept 26 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 Can someone please tell when the Sh** will begin to go sideways????.....asking for a friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 32 minutes ago, ldub23 said: I found this on another site. The CFS says everyone yelling about the favorable condidtions coming are nuts. It has 1 weak nothing between aug 20-sept 26. 0/0/0 Sept possible? 0/0/0 is possible, I suppose, but climatology alone, even if the year winds up below average, I'd bet the over every time. Oh, I'd keep an eye on any front that reaches offshore SE US or the Gulf. Edit to Add 1983, lowest NS in the satellite era, had a September storm, TS Dean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 14 hours ago, MJO812 said: Code Orange now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 0/0/0 in September ain’t happening. You can book that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 And I usually don’t take the bait, but that’s just outrageously unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 OT on season cancel, it looks like a surface feature is interacting with an upper low SE of the Carolinas, if the blob still looks good in 12 hours.... https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=ir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: And I usually don’t take the bait, but that’s just outrageously unlikely. Has there ever been a 0/0/0 September? I checked 1983, the slowest season in the satellite era, it has a September storm, but I haven't memorized anything, I rely on Wiki. A pro-met who used to post here is an editor on the Wikipedia Atlantic seasons pages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 I easily see a path to 18 / 8 / 5. September alone can produce nearly half of these numbers when things get going. Additionally we have no idea what November is going to look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: I found this on another site. The CFS says everyone yelling about the favorable condidtions coming are nuts. It has 1 weak nothing between aug 20-sept 26. 0/0/0 Sept possible? Pretty amazing really. A few days after CSU says 18/8/4. NOAA about the same, and JB issues a fast and furious watch and just this morning implies hyperactive is coming the CFS takes a dump on them saying 1 nothing between Aug20 and Sept 26 No and definitely not in today's satellite era where everything gets a name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 Latest model consensus: - Very good chance for a TC forming in MDR by mid week. Any potential threat to US east coast would be near Aug 18-22 if it were to get close though any one TC forming that far out, even in La Niña in mid Aug, would have a better chance to either recurve safely offshore or a smaller chance to dissipate OTS. The 0Z CFS, which I don't take seriously for tropical details, fwiw actually has this get very close to the east coast Aug 19-22. - A followup E MDR TC quite possibly forming ~Aug 18-20 as the Azores-Bermuda high gets reestablished to the north as per many ensemble members. This would have decent potential to get steered to the western basin based on this setup along with it being La Niña near the end of Aug, an often dangerous time for especially the SE US. - Additional much closer to US geneses mid to late Aug will need to be monitored as alluded to by Ed, especially with the very warm Gulf and off SE coast. - Thus a 3-4 NS Atlantic August is looking like a good possibility, reenforced by Aug total # of NS climo since 1995: 1) only one season with no NS, the strong El Niño of 1997 2) 24 of 27 have had not just 2 but 3+ with only 1997 (super El Niño with 0), 2013 (2), and 2014 (weak El Niño with 2) having fewer than 3 3) Closest ENSO analog (2000) had 4 4) 1996, 1998, and 1999 had none til Aug 18-19 but all ended up with 4 - I never forecasted "hyper" season ACEwise but I continue to expect an active and potentially dangerous season for the US with a guess of 120 ACE. This all appears to still be on track as best as I can possibly tell a week before the climo most active 2 months has even started. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 7, 2022 Share Posted August 7, 2022 Agree. Certainly nothing in the modern era (though I'm not as strong with my memory lol) and not in an age where it's so easy to designate short duration systems. At any rate, the 0/0/0 thing is a red herring. I still believe it'll be above average, but an underperformer is still on the table if we can't get instability to pick up in the eastern and central Atlantic (which I think it will, though not drastically enough to be hyperactive). It's getting better, but it's still very ugly out in the tropical Atlantic. You can't sugarcoat that. I think the western Atlantic is almost a lock to be active in late August and into September however, where virtually everything that speaks to an active period seems aligned. The caveat is the location of troughs that could make shear unfavorable for development from time to time, but that's normal. If you get strong AEWs into the western Atlantic, even with an underperforming tropical Atlantic, things will pop in this environment. I feel very confident saying that. Keep in mind that in recent years the bulk of high end activity has been focused in the western Atlantic and Caribbean. Models failing to explicitly show tropical genesis at this range means fairly little to me right now when looking at the overall western Atlantic environment. SST Anomaly OHC Instability--note how the environment is rebounding after the nadir in late July. Vertical Shear (850-200mb)--same as above: look at how the environment has broadly improved significantly since the truly dead pattern in July. Preseason is over. The climate models have limited utility at this point IMO. Global ensembles are going to need to be used in tandem with current environment analysis. Ensembles will show signals, and the environment will show whether the signal is noise or presents a tangible threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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