2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Great Snow 1717]

the only s**t currently going sideways is this...

[cptcatz]

With the tropics quiet for now, it's fun to look back at the older thread posts...

August 10, 2017:

August 11, 2017:

 

[ldub23]

The JB-o-meter  just went  off.

 

12Z GFS  says, yea the  pattern is still horrid. Totally  barren in the Sahara, hyperactive  in east  pac.

 

 

No wheel, no euro super ridge, no moisture. Aug starts as  July  ended.

 

 

Would everyone  take  5/2/1 for the rest  of the season and  be  happy?

 

 

[Torch Tiger]

5 hours ago, Modfan2 said:

Temps here off Palm Beach are 82-83 and 86 in the Gulf Stream which is cool for this time of year.

That has nothing to do with what I said.   May as well talk about what you ate for breakfast

[StruThiO]

7 hours ago, ldub23 said:

Im surprised this  has  gone  unmentioned.

frankly none of us fixate on operational GFS 300-h forecasts quite like this

 

[jconsor]

Counterpoint to some recent discussions about anomalously dry air in MDR persisting into mid-August.  Looks to me like significant changes are afoot, with a moister MDR expected beginning in about 7-10 days.

Given the improved upper level pattern/reduced shear as well as gradual moistening of the MDR, I would expect a TC to form in the MDR by the third week of Aug, perhaps a day or two earlier.
 

 

[jconsor]

Update on the expected pressure pattern for Aug and resultant SST trends for the MDR.
 

 

[ldub23]

 

This  is  from DT's  public facebook page. 2 things to take  note  of. No mention of the tropics  or a sideways august. Also look at week 3. Mean trough remains across  New England. This  pattern has  persisted the entire  summer. We will never  have   a Newfoundland wheel or  Euro super  ridge with the  mean trof  over  New England. I  know  people are  talking  about  hints and signs. I  listened to Suddath talk about how the  warm temps  in the  NW ATL means a ridge will be there. It  sure wont  be there  in 3 weeks.  Some storms will form but  unless the  pattern changes  its a  non season.

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

 

This  is  from DT's  public facebook page. 2 things to take  note  of. No mention of the tropics  or a sideways august. Also look at week 3. Mean trough remains across  New England. This  pattern has  persisted the entire  summer. We will never  have   a Newfoundland wheel or  Euro super  ridge with the  mean trof  over  New England. I  know  people are  talking  about  hints and signs. I  listened to Suddath talk about how the  warm temps  in the  NW ATL means a ridge will be there. It  sure wont  be there  in 3 weeks.  Some storms will form but  unless the  pattern changes  its a  non season.

You do realize the tropics can ramp up really fast. 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

 

This  is  from DT's  public facebook page. 2 things to take  note  of. No mention of the tropics  or a sideways august. Also look at week 3. Mean trough remains across  New England. This  pattern has  persisted the entire  summer. We will never  have   a Newfoundland wheel or  Euro super  ridge with the  mean trof  over  New England. I  know  people are  talking  about  hints and signs. I  listened to Suddath talk about how the  warm temps  in the  NW ATL means a ridge will be there. It  sure wont  be there  in 3 weeks.  Some storms will form but  unless the  pattern changes  its a  non season.

Chances are the season will end up above normal and things will ramp up as they normally do after the 20th. 

It's also highly doubtful the trough stays in New England. Ensembles already showing WAR moving westward after the 15th with higher heights over Se Canada and New England. 

[Normandy]

@ ldub23

Can we make a deal?  If the season ends above average can you never post in this topic again?  If it ends below average, I never post in this topic again.  I like your enthusiasm but I think we need some stakes on this take (WWF career match style).

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, Normandy said:

@ ldub23

Can we make a deal?  If the season ends above average can you never post in this topic again?  I like your enthusiasm but I think we need some stakes on this take.

Only  if the deal is that everyone who is wrong on anything  can never  post  in the  forum they were wrong  in.  Plus of  course there are degrees of  "wrong". What  if the season ends  up 14/7/3? Should everyone who forecasted  higher than that vamoose? Also, there  is a reason i post this  map so often. Its  because  unless a hurricane  can get  in this  picture  i dont  consider  it "of  note". You might say but  a  cat 4 just ran right  over PR before turning  out to sea east  of  Bermuda. In winter  no east  coast winter snow  lover cares if a blizzard blasts Butte  Montana or  if the CA Sierra gets  200% of  normal snow  dec-feb while dc has  3.5 inches. If that  happened the  moaning and groaning  in the Mid-Atlantic  forum would  be  monumental and  no matter  if CA had  400% of  normal snow while  DC  had  3.5 inches it would  be  considered a total non-winter.

 

 

1985 was  11/7/3 i think but  it  is  one  of  my benchmark seasons. It was a  hyperactive season for  a reason. Something  is wrong this season. Supposedly we are  in a  la  nina and SST's are  just  fine yet  it  just  cant get  going. I personally consider  the season at  1/0/0 so far as  A and C should  not  have  been named, but thats  just  me. Notice the dark red  over the waters off se  canada and the  Northeast? Thats supposed to cause a  blocking high. So far  nothing.

 

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, Normandy said:

@ ldub23

Can we make a deal?  If the season ends above average can you never post in this topic again?  I like your enthusiasm but I think we need some stakes on this take.

 You can forget about that deal. ldub would be back, which is fine with me since it would show (s)he's OK and also it is an entertaining tradition that has always kept the threads active during quiet periods. As long as we don't take these posts too seriously, they're ok imho. Plus bearish posts are good to see imho to keep a good balance in the discussions. Sometimes the bears will be right.

 Keep in mind that ldub's posting is (and always has been) strictly from the perspective of the threat for someone on the mid-Atlantic coast or NE US coast being hit and hit really hard not just regular hard (example: 2021, despite the above normal NE US activity, was excluded by ldub as quiet/weak despite an uncommon double TS direct hit season in addition to strong Ida effects). Bad seasons for portions of the SE US or US Gulf coast matter little to ldub if the upper US east coast is not also hit hard. When ldub posts about steering that is/isn't favorable for a hit, that's not necessarily the case for the SE US or Gulf coast.

 More specifically to get the ldub-o-meter going, you need seasons (since 1950) like 2012, 2011 (ldub's area hit), 2003 (ldub's area hit), 1999 (ldub hit), 1996, 1991, 1985, 1976, 1960, 1955, 1954, and 1953. That's only 12 seasons out of the last 72 or only 1 in 6 seasons. Seasons since 1950 that instead only hit the SE and/or the Gulf coast really hard and with 2+ H hits like 2021, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2008, 2005, 2004, 1998, 1995, 1989, 1979, 1964, 1959, and 1950 would likely have never gotten the ldub meter going due to not enough NE US impact. Without ldub's restrictive criteria, it could easily be argued that about twice as many seasons since 1950 had multiple and major US impact (over 1/3 of the seasons).

Edit: keep in mind that I'm not even including seasons with just one big SE or Gulf hit like 1992, 1974, 1970, 1969, 1967, 1965, and 1957 among others which obviously could have also been included. When seasons like those are also included, you're at ~50% chance for a high impact US season vs only ~1/3 that high per ldub's perspective.

  Edit #2: As I've said before, this year does appear to me based on analogs as well as when considering recent prevailing steering that ldub has been harping on to be extra risky for at least one direct hit on the NE GOM (FL). By extension, that would imply some extra risk for something that would possibly then go up into the SE and/or up the SE coast as well as possibly then up the NE coast. But my primary concern is for the FL Gulf coast. Every ENSO analog that I considered had significant to major FL Gulf coast activity.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Nothing impressive, strengthwise, but Day 10 ECENS, about 40% of them show something in the MDR, which is the most I have seen from it in a long time. 

 

Edit to add, via Twitter, I am focusing on the major hurricane hitting Cape Cod sometime in the next 6 weeks.

[GaWx]

What does August hold for NS in the basin? Consider these stats

- Since 1995, there has been only one season with no August NS: the super strong El Nino of 1997.
- Since 1995, 24 of 27 (89%) have had not just 2 but 3+ NS in August! Only 1997 (0), 2013 (2), and 2014 (weak El Nino)(2) had fewer than 3 in August.
- 1996, 1998, and 1999 all had 4 NS in August but the first one for all three seasons wasn't til either August 18th or 19th!
- The ENSO analog 2000 (3rd year La Nina) had 4 NS in August.
- Even the pre-1995 ENSO analog of 1985 had 3 NS in August. Actually, all ENSO analogs even going back to the likely underreported years of the 1800s had at least 1 NS in August. 

Conclusion: Based on history since 1995, you'd have to be bold to go with fewer than 3 NS this August even with the quiet first week or so on the models. I think 3-4 is the most likely with only a slight lean toward 3 NS in August. Even if the first half has none, 1996, 1998, and 1999 all show that 4 NS the 2nd half of the month is doable. In addition, keep in mind that models often don't pick up on a general upturn in activity til the last minute or sometimes even not at all.

[ldub23]

JB brings  up 1954. I would take that in a  heartbeat right  now.

 

 

[TradeWinds]

28 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

JB brings  up 1954. I would take that in a  heartbeat right  now.

 

 

I keep looking at 1950. Florida has been hot, dry this summer especially on the eastern side of the peninsula. I've have about 5" of rain since mid-June. 1950 had a very similar set up in the 850 winds and Andy posted about it earlier. It all changed mid to late Aug into Oct when the pattern became wet. Just throwing that out there. 

[StruThiO]

9 hours ago, GaWx said:

 You can forget about that deal. ldub would be back, which is fine with me since it would show (s)he's OK and also it is an entertaining tradition that has always kept the threads active during quiet periods.

At least he taught me a new word today - "vamoose"

[StruThiO]

8 hours ago, GaWx said:

What does August hold for NS in the basin? Consider these stats

- Since 1995, there has been only one season with no August NS: the super strong El Nino of 1997.
- Since 1995, 24 of 27 (89%) have had not just 2 but 3+ NS in August! Only 1997 (0), 2013 (2), and 2014 (weak El Nino)(2) had fewer than 3 in August.
- 1996, 1998, and 1999 all had 4 NS in August but the first one for all three seasons wasn't til either August 18th or 19th!
- The ENSO analog 2000 (3rd year La Nina) had 4 NS in August.
- Even the pre-1995 ENSO analog of 1985 had 3 NS in August. Actually, all ENSO analogs even going back to the likely underreported years of the 1800s had at least 1 NS in August. 

Conclusion: Based on history since 1995, you'd have to be bold to go with fewer than 3 NS this August even with the quiet first week or so on the models. I think 3-4 is the most likely with only a slight lean toward 3 NS in August. Even if the first half has none, 1996, 1998, and 1999 all show that 4 NS the 2nd half of the month is doable. In addition, keep in mind that models often don't pick up on a general upturn in activity til the last minute or sometimes even not at all.

This feels like 2019, lol. MDR was a Sahara; comically dry from the Caribbean to Cape Verde, only through the C name and DEAD until late August.. but then what happened? Dorian happened.

[Windspeed]

[SchaumburgStormer]

11 hours ago, StruThiO said:

This feels like 2019, lol. MDR was a Sahara; comically dry from the Caribbean to Cape Verde, only through the C name and DEAD until late August.. but then what happened? Dorian happened.

Every time I look at the map of Dorian I am amazed that South Florida was spared by the hard right run, and the absolute brutality as it sat and spun over the bahamas. 

[Great Snow 1717]

15 hours ago, ldub23 said:

JB brings  up 1954. I would take that in a  heartbeat right  now.

 

 

Eh not happening.  As usual he points out only one area that supports his narrative.  

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Eh not happening.  As usual he points out only one area that supports his narrative.  

This  is  1954 like if it  happens. JB-o-meter hasnt  mentioned  it  yet and will need to see  it  on the Euro as well.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

18 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

This  is  1954 like if it  happens. JB-o-meter hasnt  mentioned  it  yet and will need to see  it  on the Euro as well.

 

good luck...lol

[cptcatz]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

This  is  1954 like if it  happens. JB-o-meter hasnt  mentioned  it  yet and will need to see  it  on the Euro as well.

 

Euro ensembles are picking up on it:

GFS/CMC/Euro are all starting to pick up on the MDR wave as well.  Could be tracking two systems next week.  So much for your 0-0-0 August prediction. 

[ldub23]

15 hours ago, cptcatz said:

Euro ensembles are picking up on it:

GFS/CMC/Euro are all starting to pick up on the MDR wave as well.  Could be tracking two systems next week.  So much for your 0-0-0 August prediction. 

18Z GFS appears  less enthusiastic

 

 

Euro even less enthusiastic. Mega super duper low over the northeast and as can be seen here that causes higher than normal pressure over the Sahara. Times up for hints and signs. WHERE'S THE BEEF!

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2022080400/slp8.png

 

The  JB-o-meter  is  stuck on Bible  verses this AM. No mention of the  Atlantic Sahara.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

If I was a met and I wanted to increase page hits and advertising revenue here is how I would do so

1) Predict a cold and snowy winter every winter for the east coast

2) Predict an active Atlantic Ocean hurricane season with several threats for the east coast

All based on the large population centers along the east coast. Where the people are is where the money is.  And someone doesn't even need to be a met to cash in....for example if someone posts a winter forecast predicting a cold and snowy winter the post will get numerous likes and positive comments. If someone posts a forecast predicting a mild winter with below average snowfall the post will not be received well.

Anyone can set up a web page and/or Youtube/Twitch channel. 

As the saying goes"people "hear" what they want to "hear"...

 

"Hurricane downpour"

 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

12 hours ago, ldub23 said:

18Z GFS appears  less enthusiastic

 

 

Euro even less enthusiastic. Mega super duper low over the northeast and as can be seen here that causes higher than normal pressure over the Sahara. Times up for hints and signs. WHERE'S THE BEEF!

 

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2022080400/slp8.png

 

The  JB-o-meter  is  stuck on Bible  verses this AM. No mention of the  Atlantic Sahara.

 

"Thou shall not bullshit the masses" ????

[ldub23]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

"Thou shall not bullshit the masses" ????

Euro is pathetic for  the  time  period  of  04-19 Aug. Dr  Knabb keeps saying the  MJO is stuck over the east  pac and  all he  can do is say it  has to move over the atlantic eventually. Why? Maybe  it will just skip over the atlantic.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

So far

SAL vs Atlantic hurricane season