Floydbuster Posted July 28, 2022 Share Posted July 28, 2022 1 minute ago, GaWx said: Mike, Just to clarify, my point in giving the stats to that poster about 8/28 MHs is to say that you're predicting something that's not likely even per active era stats and thus would deserve kudos if it is right. It wouldn't surprise me if you end up right. I think we probably get Danielle sometime August 10-15th and my guess is it's similar to Hurricane Earl 2016 or Hurricane Franklin 2017, a Cat 1 minimal cane into the Yucatan/Mexico. Possible risk to northwest Gulf Coast. By the end of August, the switch flips and I think we start to see a fast burst of storms. One or two of them will be useless name wasters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 Thread on SST evolution and analogs: 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 Good article in SAL. Personally i think this season was dead due to the High being displaced too far south. Euro pretty dead thru Aug. Shows some activity in Sept but that might just be the model thinking something should be happening. 8/3/1 CSU on aug 04. https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/blame-it-on-the-dust?utm_source=email Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 To me the hurricane season doesn't really get going until August, so I would not say it is dead when it is only July. Maybe folks think it is dead because in recent years storms are named in May, June and July and many of them are barely storms and never would have been named in the past. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 I've decided to go with a 2022 ACE of 120, moderately above the longterm average. I had been thinking within the 110-140 range for awhile. But because models are suggesting little chance for the next storm through the first week of August and with ACE now only ~3, I decided to go with 120. It being La Nina and during the very active era that started in 1995 tells me to go with active and 120 is active. But with it being 3rd year La Niña (they've averaged lower ACE than other La Niña) and with a good chance that ACE as of August 7th will still be only ~3, I decided to go only moderately above the longterm average. A 120 would still be the 2nd most active 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral on record (exceeded only by 1894), very near the 119 of 3rd year Niña analog 2000, and well above the average 3rd year Niña/cold neutral, but it would be below the average/median non-El Niño since 1995, which is 153/146. My biggest concern area anywhere in the Atlantic basin remains the Gulf coast of Florida as per 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral analogs since all 8 years had significant impact there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 What would (or did) ldub say at this point during the 1999 season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 29, 2022 Share Posted July 29, 2022 Professional met who does this for a living, 1936, Hurricane 13, possibly not common knowledge, but everybody knows 1938. My Mom was 4 then and remembers it. 1950 had 'King'. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 11 hours ago, ldub23 said: Good article in SAL. Personally i think this season was dead due to the High being displaced too far south. Euro pretty dead thru Aug. Shows some activity in Sept but that might just be the model thinking something should be happening. 8/3/1 CSU on aug 04. https://michaelrlowry.substack.com/p/blame-it-on-the-dust?utm_source=email You are a broken record with a weenie tag. Long range models are pretty inaccurate yet you act like they are a verbatim forecast. How many times have we seen tropical activity change on a dime from forecast to reality? The GFShas fantasy storms that never materialize and vice versa storms form out of the blue. Give it a rest until September and just see what happens. End rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 Shows some activity in Sept but that might just be the model thinking something should be happening. I think this is anthropomorphizing a computer model. I don't think a computer model thinks about early September being the peak, and who knows how many equations simplified to transforms with thousands of terms just decides to spin up a cyclone because it is peak season. GFS ensembles at 10 days with a grain of salt, but ~10% with closed lows in the Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 16 hours ago, cptcatz said: What would (or did) ldub say at this point during the 1999 season? I was most likely saying thank god Clinton is almost gone. As far as the season itself i seem to remember i was a bit optimistic. I cant remember the overall pattern that season but i know right now and at least thru aug 14 the Atlantic Sahara and the real Sahara will be equally dry. Here is a satellite animation of 1999 and it sure appears there was much more moisture in the tropics. *Floyd flooded my house and car Here is the Atlantic Sahara today. It may well be drier than the real sahara. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 A ton of SAL out there right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 11 minutes ago, Seminole said: A ton of SAL out there right now. It’s truly tough to envision the Atlantic as a whole being drier than it is this morning. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said: It’s truly tough to envision the Atlantic as a whole being drier than it is this morning. Like i was saying, the real Sahara has more moisture. Could CSU go 0/0/0 for the rest of the "season"? Obviously something will develop, most likely a nothing in the far east ATL that quickly either croaks of thirst or bebops north. Time to start thinking about 1983. There wont be an Alicia though, but maybe a weak storm will form in the western GOM. In a season that was as weak as the 2022 season look to the extreme east or west for something to form. Hard to imagine the real Sahara having less of a probablity of a depression to form. We need a contest, "Will there be an invest in Aug"? + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted July 30, 2022 Share Posted July 30, 2022 Here we go! Major into Mexico and another little something into Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Comparing 2022 to 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral analogs: 1. Date of 3rd NS 2022: 7/2 (earlier than all 8 analogs) 2000: 8/17 1985: 8/9 1975: 8/24 1956: 7/25..this was only analog season with 3 NS as of now just like 2022 1917: 8/30 1910: 9/5 1894: 8/30 1874: 8/28 2. 1st MDR storm 2022: 7/1 (earlier than all 8 analogs) 2000: 8/3 1985: 8/12 1975: 9/13 1956: 8/9 1917: 7/6 1910: 8/23 1894: 8/30 1874: 8/28 3. 1st MH 2022: very likely after 8/7 2000: 8/11 1985: 8/30 1975: 8/30 1956: 8/9 (earliest) 1917: 8/30 1910: 10/11 1894: 9/1 (this year had highest ACE of analogs with 135) 1874: no MH 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 11 hours ago, cptcatz said: Here we go! Major into Mexico and another little something into Florida... 0Z was a bit less active. East pac still cranking plus the JB-o-meter didnt go off. In a dead season like 2022 this is much more likely. A weak storm forming from a mid-latitude trof. With the east pac in overdrive we have el nino shear in the west carib and gom so until the east pac acts like a la nina a 938mb cane isnt likely in the GOM This map also shows the overall pattern hasnt changed one iota. No wheel, no euro super ridge just a continuation of the mega east coast trof with dry air flooding the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Pretty decent writeup of what is going on so far and the future of August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 Reposting what I originally wrote for the Mid-Atlantic thread. I didn't go into wave breaking like the tread above, but it's obviously pretty important. Also very interesting that SST anomaly plots are so different depending on what site you use. There's a long road between Aug 1 and the end of October, and in the Atlantic especially we can go from quiet to a massive uptick quickly. I don't think anything like 2013 is walking through the door absent seeing continued crap conditions around the end of August, when we're into the ascent to the climatological peak and can see deep into September on ensembles. End of July Tropical Update It's time to turn the page to August, and that means a deep dive into where we are and where we may be going as we approach the start of the climatological peak of the the 2022 Atlantic season. It has been nearly a month since the last named storm in the Atlantic (Colin) and it is immediately apparent why. While the EPAC is HOT, the Atlantic is about as dead as you can get. It has been a banner month in the EPAC, where virtually everything that tried to develop in the basin has developed. The EPAC has seen 5 named storms in the month of July, and 4 have become hurricanes with 2 of those majors. That puts the basin about a month ahead of both hurricane and major climo overall. The background environment has allowed for rising motion that strongly favored convection in the Pacific. Think MJO. It has been steadfast in supporting EPAC activity. The rule of thumb is when one basin is hot, the other is quiet in our part of the world, and that has certainly been the case in the Atlantic where sinking motion, lack of stalled fronts off the SE and Gulf, and monsoon trough along the African coast allowing for SAL in the MDR have suppressed not just activity, but convection itself--the seeds of a TC. It's hard to state just how bad this pattern is for the Atlantic currently. Even though this tends to be the downward peak of dry air in the Atlantic, it is extraordinarily dry. You can see it in the satellite image above, but you really see it with the SAL Analysis. It's nearly impossible to get anything anywhere outside of the Gulf with this environment. The MDR, Caribbean, and even western Atlantic/SE coast are dry. To be clear, it's more complicated than just dry air. Combined with other factors like stability in the region, it's a toxic combo for any wave trying to form. To make matters worse, there is a nasty ribbon of shear that would rip anything apart in the Caribbean (normal this time of year) and anything that tried to develop and move westward in the eastern MDR. It's easy to look at these plots and feel the urge to cancel the rest of the season. How could the Atlantic recover with that kind of dry air and stability in the MDR? How could we see long track hurricanes with shear this high? I strongly urge caution in cutting back forecasts for an above average season. 1. Generally Speaking, a Quiet Atlantic This Time of Year is Climo There's no way to sugarcoat it: the current Atlantic pattern is truly awful for TC genesis. That said, this time of year the pattern usually leaves a lot to be desired. In recent years, very active years by the way, we saw fairly dramatic pauses in Atlantic activity during this time. Although the season starts on June 1, by the time we get to August 1, we still have approximately 90% of tropical activity that is yet to occur. July tropical activity is almost exclusively confined to the homebrew regions of the SE coast, Gulf, and Western Caribbean for a reason--the broader basin is not ready for major activity via African waves in the Atlantic and Caribbean portions of the MDR. That means it's folly to make a prediction on what August and September will look like with regard to ACE and absolute TC numbers based on July activity. Image courtesy of Michael Lowry. 2. Signs are That the Basin Will Gradually Become More Favorable Now, this one is easy. We're headed toward the peak of the season, which broadly runs from August 20-October 20. Usually the switch flips and we go from quiet to very active. The PAC will not continue on this heater, and while we had a false start signal from the models about two weeks ago that highlighted the end of July/early August as the period the switch would flip, it's important to look at the puzzle pieces they try to throw out. First, it's looking like rising motion will become more favorable by mid-month in the Atlantic and favor more vigorous waves off Africa, right in time for the start of CV season in the Eastern Atlantic (image courtesy of Andy Hazelton). This is critical, because we will need moisture to get injected into the basin. second, it looks like shear will begin to decline. This is consistent with -ENSO climo, so it wouldn't be a surprise that things begin to change as we get closer to the peak. Things are rough according to an EPS mean at the start of August, but as we get closer to the peak, the signal is for a less hostile basin. 3. Despite Mixed Environmental Factors, ENSO and SST/OHC Still Rule the Day Finally, ENSO still matters. We are going to see a La Nina/-ENSO state during the peak of the season. This is clear and unambiguous. Normally, -ENSO produces a broadly favorable environment. I will note that @GaWxhas done some excellent work that challenges the premise that a third-year Nina must necessarily be active, but I do think that an active WAM, reduced shear typical of a Nina, and importantly, near normal MDR/cool subtropics and warm western Atlantic will allow for an above average (but not hyperactive) season. Overall I started the season with a 21 named storm/10 hurricane/5 major hurricane forecast, and I don't see much reason to change that right now. I do think we get some activity before the climb toward peak begins on August 20. Overall, I think stability in the MDR will take the longest to overcome, but the other factors I listed above should be able to overcome that. As I've said the last few years as well, I think a relative lack of activity in the Eastern Atlantic can be countered by increased activity in the western Atlantic, where SSTs and OHC are higher than usual. I should note that my usual TCHP charts are inaccessible, but based on what I saw earlier in the month, the depth of ocean warmth is on par with our other recent active seasons, especially in the western Atlantic. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 I usually wait till August 20th before declaring anything. If the environment still looks as hostile by that time then we have to look at 2013 more closely. However there always seem to be a switch in the last third of August that flips everything. We've seen this even in the most hostile precursor patterns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 I could be wrong of course, but I just don’t see a 12/5/2 95 ACE season yet. If it were a Nino background, all in. If the MDR were -1.5-2C, all in. But we don’t have that. We have an absurdly stable late July/early Aug environment that can change, albeit slowly in the first 2/3 of August. Idk if I’d go well over average ACE to where CSU is, but probably solidly above given my MH forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 "This is consistent with -ENSO climo, so it wouldn't be a surprise that things begin to change as we get closer to the peak. Things are rough according to an EPS mean at the start of August, but as we get closer to the peak, the signal is for a less hostile basin." You would hope they are going to change because they cant get any worse. Its very basic. There is a massive east coast trof displacing high pressure too far south turning the Atlantic into more of the sahara than the sahara is. Until that changes i agree we can ignore 2013, but look carefully at 1983, 1972. And lets take out November because that can be dead even in active seasons. What is the longest time between invests? Should we have a contest on when the next invest will be designated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 15 minutes ago, ldub23 said: "This is consistent with -ENSO climo, so it wouldn't be a surprise that things begin to change as we get closer to the peak. Things are rough according to an EPS mean at the start of August, but as we get closer to the peak, the signal is for a less hostile basin." You would hope they are going to change because they cant get any worse. Its very basic. There is a massive east coast rof displacing high pressure too far south turning the Atlantic into more of the sahara than the sahara is. Until that changes i agree we can ignore 2013, but look carefully at 1983, 1972. And lets take out November because that can be dead even in active seasons. What is the longest time between invests? Should we have a contest on when the next invest will be designated? I wouldn't at all consider 1972 since it was a strong El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 1 hour ago, GaWx said: I wouldn't at all consider 1972 since it was a strong El Niño. But this season is acting like an el nino. In fact, we cant even get a cloud to make it across the Atlantic. This picture pretty much sums things up. There is no wheel, there is no euro super ridge, there is no moisture in the Sahara tropics, and waves are developing regularly in the east pac even though they are anemic dried up nothings until they get there. Right now there is yet ANOTHER low blasting off the mid-atlantic coast. This is why i am super uber confident of an early ending season. While its possible a switch will flip and the Wheel will appear i think its more likely as sept 15 nears the trofs will simply be stronger and more potent. My 5 post limit means i need to reply here. I also dont think it remain this quiet. 8/4/2 for the rest of the season but i might bust too high. East Pac says this is el nino baby!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 2 hours ago, ldub23 said: But this season is acting like an el nino. In fact, we cant even get a cloud to make it across the Atlantic. That's not true. Bonnie was a very strong MDR wave and, as a matter of fact, was one of the strongest June MDR waves ever. In addition, the MDR overall was very active in late June. It was so active that folks were in awe of how active it was so early in the season and wondering about implications for how active that might mean for the heart of the season. But then there was the drastic change to much quieter/drier. Just like we've had a drastic change to drier since Bonnie, things will change again as we get closer to the meat of the season, even based on 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral analogs. There's no way it will stay this quiet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 31, 2022 Share Posted July 31, 2022 I should add that based on my memory, the quietness often (though not always of course) suddenly ends before models have a good handle. I remember a number of times when after a long quiet period a storm pops up with at most 2-3 days of a signal even on the ensembles and then sometimes followed soon by a series of storms. Even this year, I recall Colin having hardly any model support. But I'm talking even much stronger and larger storms than Colin being practically totally missed. I'm not predicting this will happen, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if that's what occurs when we switch from quiet to active based on history. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 5 hours ago, GaWx said: I should add that based on my memory, the quietness often (though not always of course) suddenly ends before models have a good handle. I remember a number of times when after a long quiet period a storm pops up with at most 2-3 days of a signal even on the ensembles and then sometimes followed soon by a series of storms. Even this year, I recall Colin having hardly any model support. But I'm talking even much stronger and larger storms than Colin being practically totally missed. I'm not predicting this will happen, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if that's what occurs when we switch from quiet to active based on history. Yeah, I remember models showing a green blotch of about 1003 mb over the Bahamas for what eventually became a 185 mph hurricane named Dorian. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 Quiet also means primed SST's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 6 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Quiet also means primed SST's. Temps here off Palm Beach are 82-83 and 86 in the Gulf Stream which is cool for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 7 hours ago, Torch Tiger said: Quiet also means primed SST's. Yes you are getting more insulation into the water. But wind speeds also play a role through upwelling. While a blockbuster year is seeming more unlikely, once the SAL starts to fade, there will be plenty of warm water to take advantage of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 1, 2022 Share Posted August 1, 2022 Im surprised this has gone unmentioned. Its a repeat of 2 days ago but with a cat1 cane hitting texas instead of a cat 4. How it develops is a bit suspicious. Since its starts in 9 days we can see if the euro shows anything today The pattern shown on the euro at 240 with a front up and down the east coast and huge low pressure over the northeast makes me think this likely isnt going to happen. Maybe it will change today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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