2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I remember the 1997 CSU forecast busting because of a poorly forecast warm ENSO.  CSU has busted before, if one always predicts their numbers are too high, just law of averages, one will eventually be right.

Maybe CSU will bust, I don't know, but with an abnormally warm Gulf, with flow usually a general W to E from the Equinox on, I can see even an average season becoming quite memorable with a Florida major.  1985, Hurricane Kate weakened to Cat 2 from Cat 3 and hit Florida a week before Thanksgiving.

[Seminole]

21 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I remember the 1997 CSU forecast busting because of a poorly forecast warm ENSO.  CSU has busted before, if one always predicts their numbers are too high, just law of averages, one will eventually be right.

Maybe CSU will bust, I don't know, but with an abnormally warm Gulf, with flow usually a general W to E from the Equinox on, I can see even an average season becoming quite memorable with a Florida major.  1985, Hurricane Kate weakened to Cat 2 from Cat 3 and hit Florida a week before Thanksgiving.

I was in Tallahassee for Kate then attending FSU. The amount of trees blown down was incredible. The only thing that made it not too bad was that it happened in November so living without AC for weeks was not too bad. And as for a city learning anything from Kate, that never happened. Tallahassee is still lined with many canopy roads with power lines right there amongst all those trees. Never lived in a city where power was so prone to go out because of tree limbs, squirrels you name it. The power grid I have on St. George Island is more stable than the Tallahassee power grid.  

[ldub23]

The  horrid  pattern just  keeps  getting  re-inforced. The strongest winterlike trof  yet rams off the east  coast. No sign of the wheel or the Euros's  phantom ridge.

 

[CheeselandSkies]

Go00fus at 384...nice.

[ldub23]

8 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Go00fus at 384...nice.

The big reason why the Atlantic is the Sahara now is due to the low pressure over the NW ATL. Oh, the JB-o-meter has gone totally silent. Not good

[MJO812]

18 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

The big reason why the Atlantic is the Sahara now is due to the low pressure over the NW ATL. Oh, the JB-o-meter has gone totally silent. Not good

Patience

[NorthHillsWx]

The Atlantic is impressively dead at the moment. Other than the wave coming off the coast of Africa, there is hardly a thunderstorm in the entire basin this morning! I know it will turn but that’s an amazingly convection free sat shot this AM of the entire Atlantic/Caribbean/GOM

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Patience

More people are talking about a  2013 type  bust  now. It would  not  surprise  me  if August  is totally  barren now. Maybe  1 sheared weak nothing but the  2 places to look when a season is dead are also unfavorable. Its really  hard to get a weak storm on an old front  off the SE coast when there  is a super  mega  east  coast trof. And the subtropics are a  bit  cool. 0/0/0 in Aug  is a real possibility

 

One  bit  of  good  news is  the SST'S arent exactly the same as  now. This  is  july  29 2013

 

[cptcatz]

I'm not making any prediction here, but for those writing off the season on July 27 needs to remember there are three months of peak season ahead of us and it only takes two months of hurricanes to make a 226.9 ACE season:

[GaWx]

 We're near the peak of prime "season cancel" season.

 Per this, this month's quiet, which is fairly typical of July in being quiet, is largely due to SAL, which tends to peak around now:

 

 

[ldub23]

3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 We're near the peak of prime "season cancel" season.

 Per this, this month's quiet, which is fairly typical of July in being quiet, is largely due to SAL, which tends to peak around now:

 

 

JB bringing  up the analog  of  2003. Is he setting  up the European heat  for  his  mega  bust  forecast. I expect CSU will use  2003 when they drastically  cut  numbers next week. Isabel managed to get thru and  other than that  2003 was a  nothing season for the  US. Give  me an el nino or  give  me  death!! I would argue  its dead  in Aug because  high pressure  is displaced too far south making the Atlantic the Sahara. Oh, and the JB-o-meter had a tweet storm today and  not  a  peep about the tropics.

 

 

I  just did  some checking. The actual sahara desert has the  same amount  of tropical activity as the new Atlantic Sahara. Zero.

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

The Atlantic is impressively dead at the moment. Other than the wave coming off the coast of Africa, there is hardly a thunderstorm in the entire basin this morning! I know it will turn but that’s an amazingly convection free sat shot this AM of the entire Atlantic/Caribbean/GOM

That’s actually allowing for more insulation absorption. It will be fun to look back at these season cancel posts in 2 months 

[bigtenfan]

I am certainly not ready to cancel the season on July 27 but I must say that as I was flying into Fort Lauderdale this afternoon the Sahara dust over S FL was very apparent. As a  S Florida resident I  can only hope that it stays that way until November.

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

10 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

That’s actually allowing for more insulation absorption. It will be fun to look back at these season cancel posts in 2 months 

Mine was not meant to be a season cancel post, let me put that disclaimer out there. Just noting how quiet the entire basin is atm. Not a projection or any indicator what it will be like in a month or even a week, but the complete lack of any waves today is impressive 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

18 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

JB bringing  up the analog  of  2003. Is he setting  up the European heat  for  his  mega  bust  forecast. I expect CSU will use  2003 when they drastically  cut  numbers next week. Isabel managed to get thru and  other than that  2003 was a  nothing season for the  US. Give  me an el nino or  give  me  death!! I would argue  its dead  in Aug because  high pressure  is displaced too far south making the Atlantic the Sahara. Oh, and the JB-o-meter had a tweet storm today and  not  a  peep about the tropics.

 

 

 

Drastically cut numbers because of quite July! What kind of numbers are you talking here? I could see 2/1/1 or something like that. Far from drastic 

[GaWx]

3rd year La Nina (including borderline cold neutral) ACE:

1874: 47

1894: 135

1910: 64

1917: 61

1956: 54

1975: 76

1985: 88

2000: 119

 

 Quiet early years like 1874, 1910, and 1917 were very likely a good bit higher in reality. And with it being a very active era, I feel that the higher ACE 3rd year La Nina years like 1894 (135) and 2000 (119) are close to where I am as of now. One thing I remain pretty comfortable with is this highly likely not ending up being a hyperactive season. Third year La Nina seasons have pretty consistently not been as active as respective prior (2nd year La Nina) seasons. But another thing is that every one of these years had significant impact somewhere on the Gulf coast of FL. Thus, I highly doubt it will turn out to be quiet for the US as whole even if ACE ends up near or even below the longterm average. Consider how bad 1985 was on the US, for example. I'm not forecasting another 1985 level of US impact necessarily but am just saying that a lower ACE can be quite deceiving.

[WxWatcher007]

6 hours ago, GaWx said:

3rd year La Nina (including borderline cold neutral) ACE:

1874: 47

1894: 135

1910: 64

1917: 61

1956: 54

1975: 76

1985: 88

2000: 119

 

 Quiet early years like 1874, 1910, and 1917 were very likely a good bit higher in reality. And with it being a very active era, I feel that the higher ACE 3rd year La Nina years like 1894 (135) and 2000 (119) are close to where I am as of now. One thing I remain pretty comfortable with is this highly likely not ending up being a hyperactive season. Third year La Nina seasons have pretty consistently not been as active as respective prior (2nd year La Nina) seasons. But another thing is that every one of these years had significant impact somewhere on the Gulf coast of FL. Thus, I highly doubt it will turn out to be quiet for the US as whole even if ACE ends up near or even below the longterm average. Consider how bad 1985 was on the US, for example. I'm not forecasting another 1985 level of US impact necessarily but am just saying that a lower ACE can be quite deceiving.

This is really interesting. Do you have a sense of what the SST distributions were for some of these years?

[GaWx]

5 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is really interesting. Do you have a sense of what the SST distributions were for some of these years?

 Unfortunately I don't know. However, I just found this for 1984-1998:

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/monthly_mean.html

 

and this for 2000:

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/2000.html

[Seminole]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

3rd year La Nina (including borderline cold neutral) ACE:

1874: 47

1894: 135

1910: 64

1917: 61

1956: 54

1975: 76

1985: 88

2000: 119

 

 Quiet early years like 1874, 1910, and 1917 were very likely a good bit higher in reality. And with it being a very active era, I feel that the higher ACE 3rd year La Nina years like 1894 (135) and 2000 (119) are close to where I am as of now. One thing I remain pretty comfortable with is this highly likely not ending up being a hyperactive season. Third year La Nina seasons have pretty consistently not been as active as respective prior (2nd year La Nina) seasons. But another thing is that every one of these years had significant impact somewhere on the Gulf coast of FL. Thus, I highly doubt it will turn out to be quiet for the US as whole even if ACE ends up near or even below the longterm average. Consider how bad 1985 was on the US, for example. I'm not forecasting another 1985 level of US impact necessarily but am just saying that a lower ACE can be quite deceiving.

Very interesting regarding the Gulf Coast of FL. 1956 Flossy, 1975 Eloise, 1985 Kate and 2000 Gordon were all panhandle or nature coast storms. With the exception of Kate, all were September storms. Thanks for putting this together.   

[ldub23]

This  certainly  isnt going to be a repeat  of the  hyperactive  1985. US is  not at risk.

Same  pattern no change. Low  pressure  in the  Northeast, mega  east  coast trof, and  yet another East  Pac cane. August has gone  from sideways to rightside  up.

 

 

I  have to save  my posts. In reference to the  post  from cptcatz, Hints?? We were  supposed to be  having a  hyperactive season. Hints  in Aug  dont  cut  it. And thats  0Z, 6Z is somewhat  less  impressive.

[cptcatz]

GEFS is starting to hint at some Caribbean/Gulf action in mid August for a few runs now.  How soon before ldub changes his 0-0-0 August predicition?  

[Floydbuster]

So much premature naysaying here. I still think that switch will flip and once it does, the Atlantic will light up. In fact, I bet we have a major hurricane in the Atlantic basin one month from today.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Floydbuster said:

So much premature naysaying here. I still think that switch will flip and once it does, the Atlantic will light up. In fact, I bet we have a major hurricane in the Atlantic basin one month from today.

 There really isn't any naysaying of significance imho other than from the eternal naysayer doing it over and over because that's what ldub does and has done way back to before you even did your very first video tropical update many years ago. I have nothing against bearish opinions, whatsoever, and actually think it is good for these discussions since the tendency on wx bbs is for a bullish slant. But sometimes it is done for trolling purposes just to get a reaction from the bulls. That's what I say this is without a doubt based on history. Now that being said, IF this season were to unexpectedly end up weak, I'd be the first one to give major kudos to the broken clock!

[ldub23]

In the  interests  of  presenting all the  news, the  JB-o-meter has started  back up

 

 

Also for the first time  it appears a front  makes it thru texas

 

 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

So much premature naysaying here. I still think that switch will flip and once it does, the Atlantic will light up. In fact, I bet we have a major hurricane in the Atlantic basin one month from today.

So, that would be August 28th chances are during that date over the past 25 years there has been a major hurricane in the Atlantic somewhere.  I mean August 25th, 2005, there was Katrina just to name a few.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

So, that would be August 28th chances are during that date over the past 25 years there has been a major hurricane in the Atlantic somewhere.  I mean August 25th, 2005, there was Katrina just to name a few.

 Mike actually is going somewhat out on the limb because the chances for there being a MH on the map on August 28th are not as high as you think, even taking into account being in La Nina during the very active era since 1995:

- The very active 2021 and 2020 La Nina seasons had none

- The last season with a MH on the map on 8/28 was in the La Nina season of 2016 (Gaston).

- Before that, one has to go back to the La Nina season of 2010 (Danielle).

- Then you have to go back to 2005 (Katrina) and 2004 (Frances).

- Then back to 1999 (Cindy) and 1996 (Edouard). None in 1995

- So, for the 27 seasons 1995-2021, only 6 (22%) had a MH on August 28th.

- Even for just the 10 La Nina Augusts back to 1995, there were still only 3 (30%) that had a MH in the Atlantic basin on August 28th (2016, 2010, and 1999).

 So, Mike really is making a pretty bold prediction since the odds are against him.

[ldub23]

Might  be  lucky to have anything  on the  map on aug 28. Here  is what  i mean about the  super  mega  east  coast trof displacing high pressure too far south resulting  in a  bone  dry  Atlantic

 

 

If you want a  cane season this  year then pray long and  hard the Iron Steel trof  of  immense magnitude  can be broken. High pressure  is simply too far  south in the Atlantic. 0/0/0 is still a real possibility for  Aug. 1983 might seem active  compared to this season. Also, with this  pattern the East  pac  will stay active which means el nino like shear in the Atlantic.. Major hurricane? Its going to be  hard enough to get an invest. This  has  been the  summer  long  pattern and patterns  like this  dont  break easily which is also why  i am confident  of an early  ending season. When the  pattern does  break it will be due  to larger  intrusions  of  cool dry  canadian air blasting  off the east  coast  later  in Sept.

 

And again in the  interest  of reporting all the  news the euro still insists  on replacing the  mega  trof with a mega ridge. Lets hope  so

 

[Windspeed]

[Floydbuster]

I'll stick to my prediction of a major hurricane on August 28th. The previous poster said how unlikely it is, but usually by August 28th if we don't have a major hurricane, we have one about to form or in the process of strengthening.

I also think the pattern favors more of an active October than we saw in 2004 or 2017, for example. I'm getting 1999 vibes with this season.

[GaWx]

11 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

I'll stick to my prediction of a major hurricane on August 28th. The previous poster said how unlikely it is, but usually by August 28th if we don't have a major hurricane, we have one about to form or in the process of strengthening.

I also think the pattern favors more of an active October than we saw in 2004 or 2017, for example. I'm getting 1999 vibes with this season.

 Mike,

 Just to clarify, my point in giving the stats to that poster about 8/28 MHs is to say that you're predicting something that's not likely even per active era stats and thus would deserve kudos if it is right. It wouldn't surprise me if you end up right.