GaWx Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 On 10/28/2022 at 3:50 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I can wait a day to see if dry air and shear let up, mess on visible satellite. 8AM 8/30 TWO says better organized and could be a major flooding rainfall threat, which may be bad news for some areas and would imho make it thread worthy: 1. Central Caribbean: A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. However, overnight satellite wind data suggest the circulation is gradually becoming better defined. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica should monitor the progress of this system. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating the system this morning. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Jamaica during the next couple of days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 12Z GFS has a storm again. ICON and CMC also have it. This would make for one of the larger flip flops I've seen models do if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 Slight change in the HWRF from last run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 30, 2022 Share Posted October 30, 2022 Slight change in the HWRF from last runMeh, negligible at best. Merely background noise. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 I'm still not taking my eye off the Caribbean until the end of November. La Nina years require extra vigilance watching. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 31, 2022 Share Posted October 31, 2022 All models are in good agreement of some kind of sloppy system heading west over the Bahamas and into Florida next week. GFS with a 991mb into Jacksonville. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 TS Martin is here for about 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 4 hours ago, yoda said: TS Martin is here for about 48 hours Looks like the NHC is thinking this becomes another hurricane. Assuming Lisa doesn't have time to reach Category 3, that would put us at 13/7/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 1 hour ago, Floydbuster said: Looks like the NHC is thinking this becomes another hurricane. Assuming Lisa doesn't have time to reach Category 3, that would put us at 15/7/2. 13 named storms with Martin as of today the score is 13-5-2 but who’s counting ? LoL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 I think we might have a chance to hit the NS forecast considering how active November seems to be forecasted. I think we don't get much quality though (maybe one hurricane / major with a handful of TS/STS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 1, 2022 Share Posted November 1, 2022 On 10/11/2022 at 11:35 AM, GaWx said: There have been 13 seasons since 1995 that are like 2022 with either a current or oncoming La Niña. Out of these 13, only two (1995 and 2000) didn't have at least one more TC with genesis Oct 22+ for which there were significant land effects in the western basin. Oct 22 is still 11 days out, well beyond a reliable period for models. So, though far from a guarantee, the betting odds pretty heavily favor one more system in 2022 that we're currently totally unaware of that will generate a good amount of discussion within tropical wx forums in late October and/or November. For 2021, I counted the precursor to Wanda, which was Invest 94L from the start and resulted in a powerful nor'easter in the NE US: This idea about the likelihood of one more impactful system is not counting the current SW Gulf Invest 93L should it happen to have significant impact. Update based on the near 100% expectation that Lisa will end up having significant land impacts: For the years 1995-2022, there have been 14 La Niña seasons. Out of these 14, only two had no significant western basin land impacts from TCs with TCG 10/22+: 1995 and 2000. The precursor to Wanda in 2021 (Invest 94L starting off NC) was very strong (winds over 100 mph in Mass.) and thus was counted. The last 10 La Niña seasons in a row (back to 2005) have fallen into this late impact category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 11/2/2022 is the first day on record with two hurricane designations on the same day in November. There have been only two other years on record with two simultaneous hurricanes in November: 1932 and 2001. But 2001's/1932's November hurricanes were designated three/four days apart. The latest date for two simultaneous hurricanes on record is November 10th, set in 1932. Next latest is November 5th, set in 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 November is the new October and October is the new August. Pretty wild how active November's have been recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 Crazy too being one is forecast to reach cat 2 outside of the deep tropics in November 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 On 10/31/2022 at 2:48 PM, cptcatz said: All models are in good agreement of some kind of sloppy system heading west over the Bahamas and into Florida next week. GFS with a 991mb into Jacksonville. New topic for this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 I closed the shades on tropical weeks ago, but definitely impressive to have two Atlantic canes and a strong signal for subtropical development off the SE coast in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted November 2, 2022 Share Posted November 2, 2022 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: I closed the shades on tropical weeks ago, but definitely impressive to have two Atlantic canes and a strong signal for subtropical development off the SE coast in November. Same here. Bummer. I had already spent my prize money for winning the forecast contest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 97L looks most untropical, but since STS are now named, between the SW ATL mandarin and 97L, could get to Nicole and Owen. 2001 and before, the season would be over. STS were numbered, not named. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted November 5, 2022 Share Posted November 5, 2022 Even after 97L and Our soon to be 98L, GFS is showing two more systems. November looks to be another September in terms of NS. Season is the most Hot/Cold I can ever remember 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted November 16, 2022 Share Posted November 16, 2022 Regarding the performance of seasonal hurricane outlooks and 2022's "low bust" vs NOAA's seasonal outlook, I found this blog interesting:https://www.worldclimateservice.com/2022/11/04/noaa-hurricane-outlook-skill/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 00z GFS wishes to leave a parting gift in the uber LR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 9 hours ago, yoda said: 00z GFS wishes to leave a parting gift in the uber LR Some ensemble support for a Caribbean storm in December. Which would be interesting. But probably won't happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Some ensemble support for a Caribbean storm in December. Which would be interesting. But probably won't happen. Going back to 1851, I've found only three TS formations in the SW Caribbean on record for after November 20th (there were also two in the NW Caribbean and a couple on or just before 11/20 if I'm not mistaken): 1. 12/4/2003: Odette later became a high end TS that crossed Hispaniola December 6th. Warm neutral ENSO. 2. On 11/21/1969, TS Martha was named. This moved SW and later became a cat 1 hurricane. It then weakened into a TS that made landfall on Panama on 11/24/1969, which is the only Panama landfall of a TS+ I've been able to find. Weak El Nino. 3. On 11/22/1862, TS #6 was born. It strengthened to a high end TS but hardly moved before dissipating on 11/25. Cold neutral ENSO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 14 hours ago, yoda said: 00z GFS wishes to leave a parting gift in the uber LR It had something similar 24 hours earlier. Considering how late in the season this would be (see my post just above this to show how anomalous this would be), I suspect this is due to convective feedback, a problem the GFS has often had in the Caribbean in recent years. Even for Lisa, the GFS kept having hurricanes including some majors in the climo unfavored E Caribbean. Lisa's genesis wasn't even until the C Caribbean. At a minimum, I think it can be safely said that the GFS has a strong bullish bias, especially in the Caribbean, in regard to both genesis and strengthening. So, whereas nobody knows for sure that there won't be a TCG in the SW Caribbean near the end of this month, climo and it being mainly the GFS says extremely unlikely. I say mainly GFS because I think the 12Z CMC had something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 1 hour ago, TheGhostOfJohnBolaris said: Just for a good laugh Climo says extremely unlikely for a TCG that late in the season, but fwiw I count a rather notable 6 of the 52 (12%) 12Z EPS members with a TS in the W Car between 11/27 and 12/3. That compares to only 1, 3, and 0 on the prior three long range runs. That is not exactly what one would expect to see that late in the season on the EPS. On the GEFS or GEPS, 12% wouldn't be notable. Til 12Z today, this was purely a GFS out in fantasy land storm. But the 12Z CMC had something and now the EPS is possibly doing a little sniffing fwiw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted December 1, 2022 Share Posted December 1, 2022 I wrote a thread comparing 2022 to other years with a similar oceanic pattern. Like this year, most of these analog years saw activity focused in the western Atlantic basin and had a late start, with little significant activity prior to Aug 20. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted December 6, 2022 Share Posted December 6, 2022 We might not be done yet… 99L looks better defined this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 16, 2023 Share Posted January 16, 2023 It's not 2022, but we got some pretty impressive sub-tropical action going on in the N Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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