2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[GaWx]

56 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Hey @GaWx what do you know about 1961? That was apparently a big backloaded season.

 Regarding ENSO, it was a slightly cold neutral season that followed a very slightly warm neutral. So, it isn't an ENSO analog or close to being one. I have no idea why it had no August NS. Although it had an ACE of only very roughly 12 as of 9/1, it ended up hyperactive in terms of ACE with a 189, which was the highest since 1950. The next season stronger than 1961 wasn't til 1995.

[raindancewx]

'Dead August' v. 'Non-Dead-August' September activity doesn't quite pass a difference in proportion test at the 5% level.

Can't reject the notion that September has the same long-term activity following very low August activity. But it's really close. The p-value was 0.06, and you'd reject the "no difference from a dead idea" if it had been 0.05.

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Hurricane/hurr.atl.ace.data

1851-2019 ACE by month for anyone interested.

August ACE 0-10: 70 instances since 1851.

September ACE over 50, following 0-10 ACE August:  17/70  (53/70 under 50)

September ACE over 100, following 0-10 August: 1/70 (69/70 under 100)

All Septembers >50 ACE 52/169 

September following the non-Dead Augusts: 35/99 (36%) Septembers >50 ACE 

September following the dead-Augusts: 17/70 (24%) Septembers >50 ACE

ACE is sustained winds in knots squared divided by 10,000, as measured every six hours. So odds are pretty against more than ~12 days with a 100 kt hurricane.

 1851   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   4.91   0.89  21.83   4.00   4.61   0.00   0.00
 1852   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  26.36  31.24  15.68   0.00   0.00
 1853   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.27  63.90  10.32   0.00   0.00
 1854   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   3.90   0.00   0.36  23.08   3.66   0.00   0.00
 1855   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  10.86   7.26   0.00   0.00   0.00
 1856   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  38.40  10.54   0.00   0.00   0.00
 1857   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.00   1.00   0.00  44.84   0.00   0.00   0.00
 1858   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.49   0.00   0.49  32.41  11.40   0.00   0.00
 1859   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.81   9.72  13.54  31.66   0.00   0.00
 1860   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  22.40  22.74  16.92   0.00   0.00
 1861   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  12.76  24.67   2.69   5.57   4.02   0.00
 1862   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   3.00   0.00  10.02  23.44   5.15   4.42   0.00
 1863   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  28.35  22.00   0.00   0.00   0.00
 1864   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   5.72  11.76   4.41   4.66   0.00   0.00
 1865   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.25   0.25   0.00   6.10  27.83  14.70   0.00   0.00
 1866   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  14.29  13.97  34.79  20.60   0.00   0.00
 1867   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   3.04   8.74  10.49   9.95  27.75   0.00   0.00
 1868   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  11.00  23.65   0.00   0.00
 1869   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  10.58  35.70   4.74   0.00   0.00
 1870   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.49   2.70  36.98  43.28   4.35   0.00
 1871   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   5.74   0.00  52.86  13.46  16.33   0.00   0.00
 1872   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   3.28  23.50  23.62  14.98   0.00   0.00
 1873   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.96   0.00  33.36  16.23  18.92   0.00   0.00
 1874   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.80  10.34  26.04   0.82   7.05   0.00
 1875   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   7.84  48.28  16.36   0.00   0.00
 1876   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  23.67  33.38   0.00   0.00
 1877   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   5.11  50.61  16.00   1.64   0.00
 1878   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.76  31.47  50.78  87.80   7.40   1.64
 1879   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  35.72   5.21  17.38   5.32   0.00
 1880   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.56   0.00  60.14  27.55  40.83   0.00   0.00
 1881   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  44.28  14.97   0.00   0.00   0.00
 1882   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.45  35.76  21.26   0.00   0.00
 1883   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  36.11  28.31   2.28   0.00   0.00
 1884   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  51.77  20.29   0.00   0.00
 1885   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  28.69  24.30   5.31   0.00   0.00
 1886   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  20.58  15.40  70.95  36.33  22.90   0.00   0.00
 1887   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   7.28   1.10  20.51  54.31  39.45  38.80   4.85  14.95
 1888   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.56   1.52  20.83  27.64   7.78  24.61   0.00
 1889   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   5.93   5.30   0.00  12.42  72.93   7.48   0.00   0.00
 1890   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.24   0.00   0.00  26.91   2.21   2.56   0.43   0.00
 1891   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   7.34  39.47  37.22  29.53   2.55   0.00
 1892   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   5.39   0.00   8.35  62.09  40.00   0.00   0.00
 1893   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  10.31   5.60 119.66  22.95  67.47   5.16   0.00
 1894   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.96   0.00   4.30  53.10  76.06   0.00   0.00
 1895   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  23.33   1.59  43.84   0.00   0.00
 1896   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   7.72   3.60  77.90  22.46  24.40   0.00
 1897   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.37  37.60  16.57   0.00   0.00
 1898   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   4.25  77.05  29.15   2.78   0.00
 1899   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.49   3.77  78.50  48.63  17.37   2.27   0.00
 1900   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   3.08  73.72   6.54   0.00   0.00
 1901   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.98  20.30  20.86  42.97   7.31   6.56   0.00
 1902   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   6.66   0.00   0.00   8.91  12.52   4.56   0.00
 1903   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   5.89  28.95  30.54  24.23  12.46   0.00
 1904   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.89   0.00   0.00  11.35  14.40   1.70   0.00
 1905   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   8.81  19.57   0.00   0.00
 1906   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  18.15   0.00  12.84  94.61  33.27   4.02   0.00
 1907   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   3.77   0.00   0.00   3.36   2.03   3.91   0.00
 1908   0.00   0.00   5.84   0.00   6.04   0.00   9.81   3.89  45.53  24.00   0.00   0.00
 1909   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   9.85   9.78  26.89  19.67  17.21   9.94   0.00
 1910   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.58  33.27  29.05   0.00   0.00
 1911   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  17.72  13.82   3.12   0.00   0.00
 1912   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   8.22   2.23   0.00   8.90  17.30  20.61   0.00
 1913   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   5.94   0.00   5.96  17.20   6.50   0.00   0.00
 1914   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.53   0.00   0.00   0.00
 1915   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.53  47.21  82.35   0.00   0.00   0.00
 1916   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.46   0.00  38.78  32.76  31.33  36.24   3.44   0.00
 1917   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.53   6.59  52.54   0.00   0.00   0.00
 1918   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  20.96  18.92   0.00   0.00   0.00
 1919   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.97   0.00  49.28   0.28   3.52   0.00
 1920   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  29.81   0.00   0.00   0.00
 1921   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   8.71   0.00   0.00  46.22  29.36   2.24   0.00
 1922   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.81   0.00   0.00  39.65  14.05   0.00   0.00
 1923   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.79   0.00   0.00  34.10  13.43   0.00   0.00
 1924   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.61   1.95  37.83  18.95  29.89   9.95   0.00
 1925   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   4.15   0.97   0.00   1.83   0.30
 1926   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  22.39  36.97 132.18  36.54   1.47   0.00
 1927   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  21.55  28.09   3.81   3.04   0.00
 1928   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  19.49  55.32   8.66   0.00   0.00
 1929   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   4.20   0.00   0.00  33.54  10.32   0.00   0.00
 1930   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  19.43  27.90   2.44   0.00   0.00
 1931   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.25   2.55   6.55  27.24   2.09   7.16   0.00
 1932   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   4.34   0.00   0.00  11.89  71.22  11.24  70.98   0.00
 1933   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   3.08   9.78  35.81  64.35 111.33  28.21   6.01   0.00
 1934   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  19.55   9.07   8.48  16.71  10.05  15.21   0.00
 1935   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.75   0.00   0.00  26.75  46.11  13.36  18.24   0.00
 1936   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   7.17   7.03  24.35  58.05   0.74   0.00   2.43
 1937   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.14   8.60  51.03   4.07   0.00   0.00
 1938   4.19   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  23.83  41.53   5.25   2.77   0.00
 1939   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   4.32   0.00   9.26   2.35  20.41   7.35   0.00
 1940   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   4.69   0.00   0.00  24.57  32.51   6.02   0.00   0.00
 1941   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  36.22  15.55   0.00   0.00
 1942   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  36.05   9.91   7.04   9.48   0.00
 1943   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   5.75  29.10  39.58  19.58   0.00   0.00
 1944   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  11.32  24.75  36.72  29.49   2.17   0.00
 1945   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   9.05   0.98  20.26  22.83  10.29   0.00   0.00
 1946   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.86   4.14   0.49   5.96   7.44   0.73   0.00
 1947   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.25  14.21  45.28  28.76   0.00   0.00
 1948   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.50   0.00   0.37  19.06  49.18  20.58   3.30   0.00
 1949   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  26.47  43.80  22.71   3.46   0.00
 1950   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  63.17  93.85  52.26   2.01   0.00
 1951   5.43   0.00   0.00   0.00  16.15   0.00   0.00  24.32  57.76  17.36   0.00   5.31
 1952   0.00   1.33   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  10.26  32.35  21.62   3.53   0.00
 1953   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.82   5.51   1.77   8.53  58.65  18.65   1.90   1.67
 1954   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.17   7.39   3.99  13.70  29.81  45.93   0.74   1.68
 1955   6.48   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.41  62.47  85.31   9.98   0.00   0.00
 1956   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.32   1.84  28.42   9.36   3.94  10.79   0.00
 1957   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   9.50   0.00   2.10  63.68   3.39   0.00   0.00
 1958   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.23   1.22   0.00  48.15  45.94  13.16   0.00   0.00
 1959   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.11   4.95   7.16   6.04  28.23  28.61   0.00   0.00
 1960   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.06   9.57   5.07  57.19   0.00   0.00   0.00
 1961   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  14.26   0.00 139.59  42.81   8.74   0.00
 1962   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   6.45   2.84  26.27   0.00   0.00
 1963   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  27.90  20.95  69.08   0.00   0.00
 1964   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   3.07   0.20  34.32 104.57  26.75   0.86   0.00
 1965   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.29   0.00   9.90  65.74   7.39   0.00   0.00
 1966   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  14.40  19.02  27.38  42.12  33.45   8.85   0.00
 1967   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.89  97.58  23.24   0.00   0.00
 1968   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  13.15   0.00   6.03  15.62  10.27   0.00   0.00
 1969   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   4.03  58.28  36.96  52.60  13.86   0.00
 1970   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.19   0.00   1.88  12.74   8.52  14.85   0.00   0.00
 1971   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.82  10.75  73.92   1.67   8.61   0.00
 1972   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.12   6.77   0.00  13.85  11.09   0.00   1.77   0.00
 1973   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   7.26   6.67  19.92  13.99   0.00   0.00
 1974   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.97   1.74  17.64  45.41   2.62   0.00   0.00
 1975   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.01   7.92   9.53  42.93  11.20   0.00   2.47
 1976   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.02   0.00   1.08  46.37  25.06   9.65   0.00   0.00
 1977   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   3.09  19.03   3.20   0.00   0.00
 1978   1.70   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.49   7.55  46.40   6.89   0.20   0.00
 1979   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.81   3.72  33.41  53.33   1.64   0.00   0.00
 1980   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  66.10  51.69  18.64  12.52   0.00
 1981   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.74   1.71   0.25   7.90  76.07   2.87  10.79   0.00
 1982   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   5.10   0.00   3.24  21.51   1.65   0.00   0.00
 1983   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   9.52   7.88   0.00   0.00   0.00
 1984   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   3.26  30.64  21.30  12.86  16.24
 1985   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   4.93  18.43  33.68  11.59  19.35   0.00
 1986   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   5.12   0.00   5.63  21.24   0.00   3.80   0.00
 1987   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  14.86  16.16   3.34   0.00   0.00
 1988   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.03  71.97  24.00   4.99   0.00
 1989   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.93   2.45  35.00  90.08   4.02   0.82   1.82
 1990   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   8.05  32.91  25.72  30.13   0.00   0.00
 1991   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.25   7.97  18.05   5.91   2.37   0.00
 1992   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.09   0.00   0.00   0.00  28.45  37.97   8.72   0.00   0.00
 1993   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.49   0.00  19.85  18.32   0.00   0.00   0.00
 1994   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.57   8.32   2.88   0.00  19.26   0.00
 1995   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   3.08  11.10  80.78  85.43  45.12   1.58   0.00
 1996   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.81  21.35  55.46  57.46  25.01   6.09   0.00
 1997   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.81  11.23   0.00  26.64   2.24   0.00   0.00
 1998   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.90  42.79  88.57  39.50   7.58   1.41
 1999   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   3.42   0.00  54.35  78.08  20.81  19.87   0.00
 2000   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  43.71  52.17  23.26   0.00   0.00
 2001   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.30   0.00  10.02  51.88  17.07  28.76   1.05
 2002   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.53   3.41  46.75  15.74   0.00   0.00
 2003   0.00   0.00   0.00   3.19   0.00   1.19  14.00  11.52 111.06  30.50   0.00   4.81
 2004   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  64.69 155.01   5.24   1.09   0.85
 2005   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.92  60.38  39.22  68.21  52.41   8.97  13.22
 2006   4.80   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.76   2.94   9.59  59.64   3.61   0.00   0.00
 2007   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.89   0.77   0.53  35.80  29.00   2.61   3.01   1.27
 2008   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.53   0.25  37.56  25.78  61.21  11.19   9.20   0.00
 2009   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00  30.06  11.22   3.19   8.11   0.00
 2010   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   5.81   2.30  37.02  88.50  24.57   7.29   0.00
 2011   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.88   7.21  27.58  54.20  31.69   3.75   0.00
 2012   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   4.36   6.84   0.00  36.04  56.89  28.50   0.00   0.00
 2013   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.38   5.05   2.20  16.06   5.43   3.47   1.53
 2014   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   6.95  13.44  16.56  29.78   0.00   0.00
 2015   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.12   1.07   1.13  15.83  12.31  26.58   3.65   0.00
 2016   4.17   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.56   2.11   0.00  28.81  27.28  71.28   7.03   0.00
 2017   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   2.40   4.20  38.20 174.10  18.80   1.70   0.00 
 2018   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   1.80   0.00  12.20   2.90  72.80  42.90   0.00   0.00 
 2019   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.00   0.40   0.00   3.50  16.4   93.4   12.6    5.90   0.00 

[Amped]

Anyone catch the 12z Euro SE of NF. Looks like some sort of a warm core or hybrid system.  It's the best thing in the basin on this run.

 

At least the Epac may produce something interesting next week.

[WxWatcher007]

I should be able to pick up two NS at least with 91L and the central Atlantic lemon. Very strong consensus for that one now. It may actually beat 91L to the punch if the models are worth anything inside 72h. 

[Floydbuster]

 

[cptcatz]

00z Euro and CMC both with a hurricane in the central MDR at day 10.  Maybe this will be the one?  

[bigtenfan]

48 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

00z Euro and CMC both with a hurricane in the central MDR at day 10.  Maybe this will be the one?  

I am not an expert but looking at the lows to the north it definitely looks like there will be a weakness to allow it to escape OTS if it does form.

[Cat Lady]

13 hours ago, raindancewx said:

'Dead August' v. 'Non-Dead-August' September activity doesn't quite pass a difference in proportion test at the 5% level.

Can't reject the notion that September has the same long-term activity following very low August activity. But it's really close. The p-value was 0.06, and you'd reject the "no difference from a dead idea" if it had been 0.05.

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Hurricane/hurr.atl.ace.data

1851-2019 ACE by month for anyone interested.

^This is a really nice analysis. I'm going to replicate it with Hurricane Days - I'm most curious about total activity, and don't want a Dorian like storm to blow up a September.

[thunderbolt]

Go big or go home in Western Pacific

[NorthHillsWx]

Two cherries and an orange… looks like we’ll possibly double our season total by this weekend. Minimal threats to land. Good surf on the east coast and Bermuda in play 

[WxWatcher007]

23 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Two cherries and an orange… looks like we’ll possibly double our season total by this weekend. Minimal threats to land. Good surf on the east coast and Bermuda in play 

All I care about now is getting my peak forecast as close to right as possible lol.

This would be a good start, with the Euro highlighting more activity through early September. 

[MJO812]

When was the last time that August didn't feature a named storm ?

 

[olafminesaw]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

When was the last time that August didn't feature a named storm ?

 

Looks like 1997 

[Normandy]

iDUB looking like a strong broken clock!

[GaWx]

51 minutes ago, Normandy said:

iDUB looking like a strong broken clock!

  May still not get the August shutout if 93L were to be declared a TD at the 5PM EDT advisory. We'll know more in a few minutes when the 2PM EDT TWO is released. If not declared by 5PM, the broken clock clearly gets the win.
 

 However, it wouldn't be the first time. An excellent call was also made in the El Niño season of 2006 on the EasternUSwxbb by this poster (then known as "rainstorm") by going with a much weaker season than 2005. Rainstorm took advantage of those expecting another very active season and won the seasonal contest that I ran.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[WxWatcher007]

55 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

 

It’s incredible. The issues facing the Atlantic may be unique to the basin, but globally all the basins have struggled mightily to produce TC activity.

[ldub23]

2 hours ago, Normandy said:

iDUB looking like a strong broken clock!

Ive already  declared  victory. As for the  future the  hope  for a  1 storm season rests with a  future storm on the Euro. Basically  if  it even forms  how far west  it gets  is  based  on how strong  91L gets. 

[NorthHillsWx]

Looking at visible, our August shutout is going to end at 5pm from 93L. That’s a TD. Mid latitude fish storm to the rescue. Also one of my favorite TCG to watch unfold from old boundaries. 

[hawkeye_wx]

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Looking at visible, our August shutout is going to end at 5pm from 93L. That’s a TD. Mid latitude fish storm to the rescue. Also one of my favorite TCG to watch unfold from old boundaries. 

It was probably a TD this morning (It would have been if it was anywhere near the US), but it looks like crap this afternoon.  Convection has waned and is being blown off to the east by shear.

[NorthHillsWx]

If anyone wants to watch a textbook ERC complete tune into the western pacific right now. 

[WxWatcher007]

Guessing we keep the shutout going until tomorrow. 

[Prospero]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Guessing we keep the shutout going until tomorrow. 

Might as well. We'll all remember August 2022 for years to come.

[NorthHillsWx]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Guessing we keep the shutout going until tomorrow. 

It would be an absolute travesty to get a mid latitude sheared spin up to sugarcoat the historic ineptitude of this season to this point, but that’s a TD. It had better convection this morning but you can see what’s under the hood, that’s a classifiable tropical system and has been all day I take it. 

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

It would be an absolute travesty to get a mid latitude sheared spin up to sugarcoat the historic ineptitude of this season to this point, but that’s a TD. It had better convection this morning but you can see what’s under the hood, that’s a classifiable tropical system and has been all day I take it. 

 Even if they don't declare it a TD this evening, might it be declared a TD in retrospect for today after the season is reevaluated? If so, and if it subsequently gets named, it would mean no August shutout. Another option though is that this never gets stronger than a TD regardless of when it is declared a TD. If that's the case, it would mean an August shutout because TDs that never make it to TS status would leave it at the 0/0/0 status. So, several possible scenarios remain.

[NorthHillsWx]

23 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Even if they don't declare it a TD this evening, might it be declared a TD in retrospect for today after the season is reevaluated? If so, and if it subsequently gets named, it would mean no August shutout. Another option though is that this never gets stronger than a TD regardless of when it is declared a TD. If that's the case, it would mean an August shutout because TDs that never make it to TS status would leave it at the 0/0/0 status. So, several possible scenarios remain.

It’s definitely made for a photo finish to the month. Half the board wants it so one poster can be proven wrong, half the board wants to keep the shutout through the day. Get your popcorn ready 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Ive already  declared  victory. As for the  future the  hope  for a  1 storm season rests with a  future storm on the Euro. Basically  if  it even forms  how far west  it gets  is  based  on how strong  91L gets. 

[CheeselandSkies]

It’s definitely made for a photo finish to the month. Half the board wants it so one poster can be proven wrong, half the board wants to keep the shutout through the day. Get your popcorn ready 

I jumped on board the futility train when 91L's prospects to become even a CONUS MH landfall tease, let alone bona fide threat, took a nosedive. At this point it's like that 1/2" duster that spoils a would-be record measurable snowfall drought in a weak winter season (with extra salt in the wound because all the indicators were for an epically snowy one).

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

[yoda]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Guessing we keep the shutout going until tomorrow. 

Yup, nothing at 5pm

[Floydbuster]

I say go ahead and wait until tomorrow. We'll probably have both Danielle and Earl by weekend/early next week, but might as well make August 0/0/0.