2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[NorthHillsWx]

That wave that comes off the African coast around the 30th is likely our “D” storm. Whether it develops before the end of the month or not we can’t tell, but if it fails to develop in general, I’m throwing in the towel on the MDR this season. 

[Great Snow 1717]

24 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That wave that comes off the African coast around the 30th is likely our “D” storm. Whether it develops before the end of the month or not we can’t tell, but if it fails to develop in general, I’m throwing in the towel on the MDR this season. 

Going Duran on us???...."no mas no mas"

 

 

[ldub23]

55 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

That wave that comes off the African coast around the 30th is likely our “D” storm. Whether it develops before the end of the month or not we can’t tell, but if it fails to develop in general, I’m throwing in the towel on the MDR this season. 

Surprise!! Im not  too optimistic  on the  MDR. Also the hurricane the  GFS has hitting Texas seems rather  unlikely to me. I still think the  best  possibility is  for  a  brief storm to form just  off the African coast then bebop north. If it suddenly decides to head west  its going to have a  hell of a time surviving.

 

*** Maybe the  upper  low NE of the  bahamas will become  something weak, but  it would also bebop.

[WxWatcher007]

Did a deeper dive into the basin this morning in the MA thread. It sounds like a broken record, but we're making progress, I think. Feel free to call me a clown if we get to September 1, have nothing on the table, and another SAL outbreak that blots out the sun in the tropical Atlantic. Totally possible  

Reposting so it'll probably look weird on mobile. Sorry about that. 

 

Let's take an objective look around the Atlantic basin on this Thursday morning. In my analysis, I will broadly look at four areas: The Gulf, the western Atlantic, Caribbean, and Tropical Atlantic. 

 

The Gulf
Not much is happening here, and not much is expected. I did previously highlight this area for possible BOC development this weekend, and while the guidance has continued to have a weak ensemble signal for development in association with a weak wave that is currently draped across the Yucatan, at least right now, nothing is imminent. 

 

Western Atlantic
The feature that stands out here is an upper trough that has been persistent the last few days in the Atlantic. There's not much of a chance of development, despite a very weak ensemble signal for a quick spin up.

Why?

Despite deep convection firing each morning, it is disorganized. Moreover, it hasn't made much of an attempt to organize during the convectively active periods. For an upper trough to work toward the surface you need time and a non-hostile environment. It has had time, but the lethal combination of dry air and shear will likely keep this feature from developing. 

The two images above lead to the more "active" portions of the basin, where we have vigorous waves that may struggle to find windows for development, but have a shot to break our historic named storm drought nonetheless. 

Caribbean
The first takeaway, and has been the story of the season thus far, is that dry air is ever-present out in the Atlantic. To be clear, the basin is FAR better off now than it was a few weeks ago, but dry air has continued to kill vigorous waves. As you can see below, it has worked its way into the eastern Caribbean while the central and western portions of the sea have much more moisture.

This is important because our first lemon, one I have been tracking closely since a cold push from South America tilted part of the monsoon trough into an upright wave, has been trying to fight off dry air and may have a shot to develop in the Caribbean in a few days if it is able to avoid suffocation by the dry air. Shear is still around, but isn't as bad. 

As you saw in the shear image above, the western and central Caribbean are open for business, if a legitimate disturbance can get there. Guidance is clear on a favorable environment persisting. 

Enter our wave, which looks a little more robust this morning. It should look robust given the time of day. Let's see if it is able to keep dry air out today. That will be hard. 

 

 

One final note on this wave. Despite the operational GFS and Euro not developing this, there are meaningful signals for some development once this gets to the central and western Caribbean. The NHC highlights it in their outlook, and if you look at the broader environment, it does look conducive for development if dry air doesn't kill it first.

I said about a week ago that we needed to look past 60W for a development chance, and that still looks to be the case.

I still believe this is one to watch, as it has so far been successful in standing upright and breaking away from the monsoon trough as a well-defined wave, as the NHC described it at 8am this morning. 

Tropical Atlantic
Finally, we turn the tropical Atlantic portion of the MDR, where waves have gone to die all season due to that lethal combination of dry, stable air and shear from TUTTs created by repeated wave breaking. Both look to be in the way right now out there, but we are getting stronger waves in this part of the Atlantic as we approach the climatological peak and are receiving an assist from a favorable CCKW and MJO.

While it isn't quite the case since we still have mid to late September for CVs, it feels like now or never for some of these waves to fight back against a hostile Atlantic. 

Enter our latest wave. 

The image above has lat/lon and the SST distribution as an overlay to assist the reader.

The first thing I notice is a continued robust monsoon trough between 5 and 10 deg N. That could serve as a focal point for development in the MDR, though the trough itself doesn't become a TC. 

The second thing I notice is our wave to the north, and you can clearly see it spin nicely off the coast of Africa. It has good convection early, and is running into a primed ribbon of warm SSTs.

However, the third thing I see is also clear. More dry and likely stable air.

That said, our dead Invest did prove to be a sacrificial wave, moistening the environment to provide this new wave with a greater chance of developing a moisture envelope that not only helps future waves, but can protect itself down the road as it tries to develop, and it should try.

It's actually pretty bad that we have to say the dry air isn't as dry so there's a chance, but that's the basin we have this year. 

 

Development should be slow for this one, and keep in mind it's just coming off Africa so these things can take time to really spin up, but overall the signal on the GEFS and EPS are the strongest yet for activity in the tropical Atlantic.

Overall
What gives me confidence that early September will be active, even if we do not receive a named storm in August (and it will be close), is that the wave train that is clearly underway has helped to moisten the tropical Atlantic. With stronger and more frequent waves heading into September, I do think the odds will increase for an above (climatological) average period. 

That's a bold (and potentially idiotic) statement, because dry/stable air may continue to be an issue if wave breaking persists. 

Let's take a look at the latest ensembles. 

Things have been extraordinarily quiet. The tropical Atlantic has been a graveyard that has precluded development even west of 60W, but things are changing, albeit slowly. 

It's hard for me to get excited about anything today with so much dry and stable air still prevalent in the basin, but objectively, the pattern has been evolving toward a more favorable background state.

This is not a "good conditions are 10 days away, still" post. 

I do think that the two NHC lemons have a meaningful shot of development in the 5-7 day range, and if we're able to open up the tropical Atlantic for development beyond that, it will ripple throughout the basin as it should allow waves to get further across toward more favorable conditions in the Gulf and western Atlantic in mid-September. 

Watch for wave breaking and TUTTs. If we see that continue, there will be a lid on development. If those begin to fade in early September, we're off and running. 

 

[TheDreamTraveler]

16 hours ago, GaWx said:

FYI: 1997, 1941, 1929, El Nino. 1961 the only non-E Nino of the 4 years listed.

That's actually extremely interesting. If we don't get a named storm by the 31st that would make it even more of an extreme oddity considering this is a La Nina year. Also I went and checked and 1961 was a neutral year. So if it happens then 2022 would be the first time during a La Nina year

[NorthHillsWx]

That wave that just came off the African coast is one of the most robust-looking waves this season. Guidance is murky on it in the short term, but it looks more organized than guidance would seem to indicate. Maybe this one can spin up before it runs into the Atlantic Sahara? 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Underperforming Atlantic La Nina seasons (1955, 1973, 1974, 1975)

[Normandy]

The GFS with another spectacular run.  Lows flying left and right everywhere in each basin.  Straight chaos.

[Kevin Reilly]

4 minutes ago, Normandy said:

The GFS with another spectacular run.  Lows flying left and right everywhere in each basin.  Straight chaos.

I was just going to comment on this once we hit August 31st through the first week of September it is total chaos lows everywhere. 

[ldub23]

32 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I was just going to comment on this once we hit August 31st through the first week of September it is total chaos lows everywhere. 

Naturally  i see  it a  bit  differently. I am discounting the  Texas cane and the MDR still seems like the sahara. At  276 its  little different from this

 

It  does show this 16 days  from now, but  again 16 days from now. Other than a Texas cane  i think is  unlikely to happen it really  isnt  showing  considering  its  peak in a season that was supposed to be  hyperactive.

 

 

 

***And again i apologize for  not replying to people. I realize  it  makes  me appear an even bigger arse than the arse that  i am. With 5 posts a day i simply  cant reply.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, ldub23 said:

Naturally  i see  it a  bit  differently. I am discounting the  Texas cane and the MDR still seems like the sahara. At  276 its  little different from this

 

It  does show this 16 days  from now, but  again 16 days from now. Other than a Texas cane  i think is  unlikely to happen it really  isnt  showing  considering  its  peak in a season that was supposed to be  hyperactive.

 

 

We are entering the busiest times in the tropics. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

3 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

Naturally  i see  it a  bit  differently. I am discounting the  Texas cane and the MDR still seems like the sahara. At  276 its  little different from this

 

It  does show this 16 days  from now, but  again 16 days from now. Other than a Texas cane  i think is  unlikely to happen it really  isnt  showing  considering  its  peak in a season that was supposed to be  hyperactive.

 

 

I know some earlier ECENS see the Mexico hurricane, but knowing where the wave is, and tracking LL vorticity, which disappears and reappears and then goes from nothing to something, I can't see how it pulls it off, really.  CIMSS PW, the wave between the lemons looks better than either lemon.  I haven't looked at the far E lemon, but I wonder if the 2 waves are expected to combine.

[Superstorm93]

Nothing screams "flipping the switch" like a TUTT on roids and dry air from the subtropics getting injected into the MDR. 

 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Superstorm93 said:

Nothing screams "flipping the switch" like a TUTT on roids and dry air from the subtropics getting injected into the MDR. 

 

It really is a wild anomaly. I thought a 0/0/0 in August during a Nina was insane but not anymore. 

Models continue to back-off on significant development. 

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, Superstorm93 said:

Nothing screams "flipping the switch" like a TUTT on roids and dry air from the subtropics getting injected into the MDR. 

 

Yep two week lows  out in the middle of the Atlantic I wonder when people start waving the white flag

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Bahamas thing is the best chance at avoiding an 0/0/0 August.  It may not be at the surface, but there looks like anti-cyclonic outflow over the W half of the blob.  In a decent shear/moisture area.  Models aren't thrilled, but there is vorticity maximized near the tail end.  Re: rest of ATL,  August is a dud, but a lot of ensemble support for something in either/both the Gulf and near or N of Greater Antilles, at least Danielle gets named over the Labor Day weekend.    The ensembles were not showing the amount of activity a week or two ago. 

[MJO812]

52 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

Yep two week lows  out in the middle of the Atlantic I wonder when people start waving the white flag

You serious?

[thunderbolt]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

You serious?

I should’ve been more clear for those who were calling for a hyper active season ya they should be looking for the white flagI 

[WxWatcher007]

Hyperactive ain’t happening. We can barely get clouds. 

Let’s get the show on the road  

[cptcatz]

Can anyone explain what this system is at 10N,35W?  It's the most impressive area of convection I've seen all season, so why don't models have it developing?

[tiger_deF]

15 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Can anyone explain what this system is at 10N,35W?  It's the most impressive area of convection I've seen all season, so why don't models have it developing?

It's organization is dramatically improving as well, here's 6 hours ago vs now

[WxWatcher007]

55 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

Can anyone explain what this system is at 10N,35W?  It's the most impressive area of convection I've seen all season, so why don't models have it developing?

 

39 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

It's organization is dramatically improving as well, here's 6 hours ago vs now

It's the monsoon trough inside the ITCZ. This can have an impact on eventual TC genesis, but the feature itself doesn't become tropical. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania 
near 20N17W southwestward to across the Cabo Verde Islands to
14N30W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to 10N55W. In 
addition to the deep convection noted with the easternmost 
tropical wave, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection 
is noted from 04N to 13N between 30W and 37W.

The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends east from Costa
Rica near 10N83W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N76W to the coast
of Colombia near 11N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted south of 13N in the SW Caribbean Sea.

 

https://severeweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAIV_Workshop2017/05b_MonsoonTrough_HughCobb.pdf

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

It's the monsoon trough inside the ITCZ. This can have an impact on eventual TC genesis, but the feature itself doesn't become tropical. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania 
near 20N17W southwestward to across the Cabo Verde Islands to
14N30W to 10N48W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to 10N55W. In 
addition to the deep convection noted with the easternmost 
tropical wave, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection 
is noted from 04N to 13N between 30W and 37W.

The eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough extends east from Costa
Rica near 10N83W to 1010 mb low pressure near 11N76W to the coast
of Colombia near 11N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong 
convection is noted south of 13N in the SW Caribbean Sea.

 

https://severeweather.wmo.int/TCFW/RAIV_Workshop2017/05b_MonsoonTrough_HughCobb.pdf

isnt this the one that many EPS members develop   I was shocked they didnt give it a chance at all

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

isnt this the one that many EPS members develop   I was shocked they didnt give it a chance at all

You can get stuff to pop out of that--we just saw that with the wave that's now in the eastern Caribbean. The Euro and GFS differ in their latest runs. The Euro tries to get the eastern wave (the right near the CVs) to interact with part of the trough and that becomes a TC.

The GFS, probably due in part to another burst of dry air, keeps everything strung out. 

I think the main takeaway is that there's a real chance for development in the tropical Atlantic. How high I don't really know. 

I think models are going to struggle, especially in this environment, to pick up where and how in that region. 

Posting the ops because these are inside 90 hour forecasts. 

 

 

[Normandy]

Nah that thing is something more than just ITCZ disturbance right now......

[WxWatcher007]

Looks like the GFS moved toward the Euro at 00z

[Scott747]

0z GFS is NC-17 for Galveston. 

[ldub23]

Euro finally shows a  possible threat at 240

 

High in the right  place. This would  likely  be a  monster if  it gets  over water. gfs has something  similar but then it develops some  odd  low that  causes the cane to bebop NE.

Meanwhile the  GFS is alone  in forming the  supercane  once  more

 

 

These are 2 totally different storms. Here is the same storm the euro is showing

 

 

You can see it in the lower right. If the GFS didnt have the supercane it would likely have the other cane as a real threat. Sadly the gfs also is showing a hyperactive east pac.

 

06Z has the  cane  slightly  further west. If  not for the  phantom supercane this would  be a real threat as all the  models are  now developing  it.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

No lemon, but MDR disturbance has the look.  Not a ton of model support, but it has the look.  Even w/ SAL just N of it and high shear.

[WxWatcher007]

Gotta see what happens when the CV wave and this area interacts, but it's looking increasingly likely that something come out of this. Maybe in time to prevent an August shutout, though it'll add virtually no ACE to the monthly total of...zero.