2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Drummer said:

ignoring any issues with initializing (haven't ran it myself), how accurate is this at 240hrs+?

Not accurate. The main thing is that the ensembles are trying to show a pathway for TC genesis that could get into the Caribbean.

I posted the Papin tweet in the thread but this is a great illustration of what we’re looking at. This isn’t ten days out there either, this is a short to medium range forecast. For genesis—don’t really care about the downstream impact—that’s too early. 

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

GFS monster Gulf storm closes an isobar by Saturday.  Or we know in 3 or 4 days whether it is a model figment.  Pretty sure ~ 30% of 6Z ECENS see it this weekend in the Caribbean.  Similar percentage of GEFS.  But it isn't an 8 day forecast (for formation), its a 3 to 4 day from now per GFS. 

[Drummer]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not accurate. The main thing is that the ensembles are trying to show a pathway for TC genesis that could get into the Caribbean.

I posted the Papin tweet in the thread but this is a great illustration of what we’re looking at. This isn’t ten days out there either, this is a short to medium range forecast. For genesis—don’t really care about the downstream impact—that’s too early. 

 

Thanks.  Thought it looked kinda funky after watching the model run.

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, Drummer said:

Thanks.  Thought it looked kinda funky after watching the model run.

It is but that’s kinda normal. The 0-120 hour structural forecast (vorticity and organization) is what matters to me. 

[NorthHillsWx]

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It is but that’s kinda normal. The 0-120 hour structural forecast (vorticity and organization) is what matters to me. 

What should we be watching to see if there is any merit to some of the models in developing this trough? It looks like the players are already on the field (over water). Are there any hints that a solution like the GFS with eastern Caribbean development may be onto something at present? As stated, this is not a long or mid range forecast. This should already be starting to show it’s hand. 

[ldub23]

32 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not accurate. The main thing is that the ensembles are trying to show a pathway for TC genesis that could get into the Caribbean.

I posted the Papin tweet in the thread but this is a great illustration of what we’re looking at. This isn’t ten days out there either, this is a short to medium range forecast. For genesis—don’t really care about the downstream impact—that’s too early. 

 

At least  its  not 15 days away in fantasyland. In this  case we should  see  immediately  on satellite  if  its real or  not.

 

JB's cat  isnt  impressed so that  might  be a  bad sign.

 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

43 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

At least  its  not 15 days away in fantasyland. In this  case we should  see  immediately  on satellite  if  its real or  not.

 

JB's cat  isnt  impressed so that  might  be a  bad sign.

 

 

For some odd reason I am betting on the cat being right...

[AnthonyEC]

At least the GFS is backing up it’s own fantasy. 
 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

East of The Windward Islands:
A large area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles 
east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Even though this system 
remains disorganized, environmental conditions could become more 
conducive for development in a few days while it is forecast to move 
across the Windward Islands and into the southeastern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in 
a couple of days. Environmental conditions could support some slow 
development of this system late this week or over the weekend 
while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[GaWx]

 Per the following link, the E GOM at 87-90 F is currently running the hottest it has been in August since at the very least 2017 and likely is about as warm as it ever gets there. This is one reason the latest GFS is exploding a TC there to a cat 4. Longterm average is closer to  86-87 F.

https://seatemperature.info/august/gulf-of-mexico-water-temperature.html

[WxWatcher007]

5 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

What should we be watching to see if there is any merit to some of the models in developing this trough? It looks like the players are already on the field (over water). Are there any hints that a solution like the GFS with eastern Caribbean development may be onto something at present? As stated, this is not a long or mid range forecast. This should already be starting to show it’s hand. 

It’s an ugly look right now with shear and dry air, but I’d look for the following over the next 3-5 days:

Step 1/Next 48 hours: Does the “wave” axis, which is currently oriented from west-east, begin to tilt more N-S to take on the look of a traditional wave?

Step 2/Friday & Saturday: Does this “wave” break from the monsoon trough and into the eastern Caribbean? I’d want to see a broad area of vorticity, something that resembles a nascent disturbance. Disorganized, but you know it has a chance.

Step 3/Sunday & Monday: Does the disturbance begin to consolidate and fire more persistent convection, setting it on the path of TC genesis. 

On the guidance, ensembles especially, I’d want to see some more robust consensus on development in the central Caribbean. I think we’re starting to see that today, but that can fall apart quickly if these three steps aren’t completed IMO. 

[Amped]

Everything seems to be disappearing on models once it gets inside 5 days.

[ldub23]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Everything seems to be disappearing on models once it gets inside 5 days.

Sadly, it appears the  18Z GFS dropped everything east  of the  islands. Maybe the  supercane will form but  im always skeptical in a situation  like this. But  maybe this  is our  1 storm season.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Amped said:

Everything seems to be disappearing on models once it gets inside 5 days.

Uh ? Gfs still showing the tropics getting really active 

[cptcatz]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Uh ? Gfs still showing the tropics getting really active 

At the 5 day mark, there is zilch happening in the tropics...

[Seminole]

GFS is at least consistent with a Caribbean TCG. This run has it effecting Louisiana instead of scraping the Florida E coast.   

 

[Tallis Rockwell]

Everybody is focusing on storms 11 days out because there isn't actually anything solid 1 week out which is still pretty distant for forecasting TCs, unless something seriously changes I can't imagine things getting much busier

[NorthHillsWx]

33 minutes ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

Everybody is focusing on storms 11 days out because there isn't actually anything solid 1 week out which is still pretty distant for forecasting TCs, unless something seriously changes I can't imagine things getting much busier

GFS backed development off on the Caribbean system pretty much until it gets to the GOM. Par for the course this season, get around 5 days (or more) out then push back or drop development. At least the models are showing a consistent signal for the last couple days of the month going into September being more active. If we get past that period with nothing to show, this season is going to be an epic bust. It only takes one, but goodness this is probably going to replace 2013 as the biggest season bust, total activity-wise

[ldub23]

1 hour ago, Tallis Rockwell said:

Everybody is focusing on storms 11 days out because there isn't actually anything solid 1 week out which is still pretty distant for forecasting TCs, unless something seriously changes I can't imagine things getting much busier

One  consistent thing  is everything  keeps  getting  pushed  back and  back and  back and the  ridge  is  gone  gone  gone.

 

Plenty  of dry air  in the Sahara

 

And this  is with phase2 MJO. Can we sue the  MJO for  breach of  contract?

 

1 myth i would  like to correct. Waves dont  sacrifice themselves and  "moisten" up the environment  for  future waves. That  can only  happen if the  amount  of  dry  air  in the Sahara  is static. When the  dry  air  just  keeps  being  replaced any moisture  a wave will bring  is  literally  no more than spitting  in the  ocean. The dry air  being  flooded  in dwarfs the  tiny amount  of  moisture with a single wave. Its  come down now to a  1 storm season. 0/0/0 Aug is  becoming  more  likely.

 

I wouldnt expect that much in Sept. Its as favorable as it can be now and the Sahara is totally dead. As sept rolls in the good MJO is headed out. I guess the good news is how much worse can it get?

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

On 8/16/2022 at 3:26 PM, cptcatz said:

The 12Z GFS ensembles are still blasting the east coast...

This was the GEFS from a week ago… I mean we’re talking full-on ensemble fail at this point

[olafminesaw]

Yeah, the GFS is broken. Wake me up when the Euro shows development within 84 hours. 

 

[Hotair]

I thought this was interesting

 

 

 

Mike Ventrice

 

@MJVentrice

 

 

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the Atlantic Hurricane Season is running at 13% of normal.

 

 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, Hotair said:

I thought this was interesting

 

 

 

Mike Ventrice

 

@MJVentrice

 

 

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the Atlantic Hurricane Season is running at 13% of normal.

 

 

No surprise there. Persistence has won out.

[WxWatcher007]

14 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s an ugly look right now with shear and dry air, but I’d look for the following over the next 3-5 days:

Step 1/Next 48 hours: Does the “wave” axis, which is currently oriented from west-east, begin to tilt more N-S to take on the look of a traditional wave?

Step 2/Friday & Saturday: Does this “wave” break from the monsoon trough and into the eastern Caribbean? I’d want to see a broad area of vorticity, something that resembles a nascent disturbance. Disorganized, but you know it has a chance.

Step 3/Sunday & Monday: Does the disturbance begin to consolidate and fire more persistent convection, setting it on the path of TC genesis. 

On the guidance, ensembles especially, I’d want to see some more robust consensus on development in the central Caribbean. I think we’re starting to see that today, but that can fall apart quickly if these three steps aren’t completed IMO. 

Well, step one seems to be underway. Per analysis and visible imagery, that push from South America is helping to tilt the wave upright.

Problem is the Atlantic is trying to kill it with shear and dry air, which is stunting any type of organization and modest convection. That was expected. Everything is a fight in the basin this year.

Despite this, there’s still a signal on the ensembles for development in the Caribbean.

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

GFS backed development off on the Caribbean system pretty much until it gets to the GOM. Par for the course this season, get around 5 days (or more) out then push back or drop development. At least the models are showing a consistent signal for the last couple days of the month going into September being more active. If we get past that period with nothing to show, this season is going to be an epic bust. It only takes one, but goodness this is probably going to replace 2013 as the biggest season bust, total activity-wise

All time bust if this season is below normal. It is a legitimate possibility, but still unlikely imo.

[Kevin Reilly]

What are the correlations of 0 August activity when it comes to La Nina or El Nino years?  Is it possible we are in a weak to moderate El Nino year?  I mean aren't La Nina years very active typically.  To my untrained eye it appears that we are in more El Nino set up with all the upper air lows, shear caused by them, and dry Saharan dust.

 

I have also been hearing about a Triple La Nina?  Never heard of this? What affect does that have on this whole situation.

 

Also, the super active eastern Pacific has fueled the idea of an east based El Nino to me.

 

Thoughts?

[Great Snow 1717]

33 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

What are the correlations of 0 August activity when it comes to La Nina or El Nino years?  Is it possible we are in a weak to moderate El Nino year?  I mean aren't La Nina years very active typically.  To my untrained eye it appears that we are in more El Nino set up with all the upper air lows, shear caused by them, and dry Saharan dust.

 

I have also been hearing about a Triple La Nina?  Never heard of this? What affect does that have on this whole situation.

 

Also, the super active eastern Pacific has fueled the idea of an east based El Nino to me.

 

Thoughts?

An article from earlier this year

Three La Niña Years in a Row - What Has Happened in the Past? - The Globe and Mail

[CheeselandSkies]

The real headscratcher now is that this year isn't really behaving like any of the previous third-year Nina analogs, either. July through first 10 days of August, I'll give you, but all of them had substantially more activity by this point in time.

[WxWatcher007]

I mean it speaks for itself :

 

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

All time bust if this season is below normal. It is a legitimate possibility, but still unlikely imo.

I’m still thinking we get a system by the last couple days of the month but the AEWs forecast to produce HAVE to produce that first week of September or this season is sunk from having any chance of above normal activity. The bar has been lowered from hyperactive expectations (fast and furious watch for August, lol) to probably now in all likelihood clawing to meet average seasonal activity.

There’s still a great signal from almost all ensemble modeling that the period between August 28-September 7 will feature several systems in quick succession. That will be critical to where we land as a season. We miss that period, we’re sitting at September 10, the climatological peak, and downward climo. It’s conceivable at this point we end with BN activity, but that week starting at the end of this month through beginning of September will be absolutely critical from a seasonal perspective 

[NorthHillsWx]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I mean it speaks for itself :

 

Absurd