ineedsnow Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 1 hour ago, jbenedet said: The tropics are finally heating up and we have a high amplitude H5 pattern locking in over the CONUS this week. Labor Day weekend plans to be greatly affected. I'll be in Orlando that weekend might get a chance to see something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 NHC only showing a slim chance for a disturbance in the eastern Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: I'll be in Orlando that weekend might get a chance to see something You sure will ... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 GFS pushing back the development of the lead AEW even further and kinda splits the next wave. Not looking for specifics at that range but the trend with the first wave is definitely much, much more delayed development if any. The chances of going 0-0-0 in August are slowly creeping up unless something in the Caribbean, GOM, or mid latitudes pops up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 The GFS basically stalling and retrograding multiple waves in the MDR is bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 34 minutes ago, Normandy said: The GFS basically stalling and retrograding multiple waves in the MDR is bizarre. SAL is still significant enough to strangle out any potential TC in the MDR. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
floridapirate Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 9 hours ago, cptcatz said: The 0z EPS is pretty bullish with three waves in the next 10 days: it starts to develop the current 20% lemon just north of the Caribbean and ends the run with it on a crash course into Florida. The next wave seems a bit messy in the central Atlantic but the third wave looks to be a vigorous one. Looks like the main story of the models is they have no idea how to handle this monsoon trough. Ok, what is a "lemon"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 Lemons oranges and cherries yellow orange and red Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 21 minutes ago, floridapirate said: Ok, what is a "lemon"? The yellow shaded zone indicating potential "low-probability" (30% or less) areas for tropical cyclogenesis on NHC's 5-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Medium-probability (40%-60%) is shaded orange ("orange" or "mandarin") and high-probability (70% or more) is red ("cherry") as alluded to by @AnthonyEC above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 22 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: The yellow shaded zone indicating potential "low-probability" (30% or less) areas for tropical cyclogenesis on NHC's 5-day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. Medium-probability (40%-60%) is shaded orange ("orange" or "mandarin") and high-probability (70% or more) is red ("cherry") as alluded to by @AnthonyEC above. Based on my memory, these fruit based terms were originated 10+ years ago by board member and chaser, Josh Morgerman. And they stuck! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 2 hours ago, GaWx said: Based on my memory, these fruit based terms were originated 10+ years ago by board member and chaser, Josh Morgerman. And they stuck! Those threads back then when he was on the chase was a perfect example how crowd sourcing info can pay dividends. Kind of nostalgic when you think about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 22, 2022 Share Posted August 22, 2022 8 hours ago, ineedsnow said: I'll be in Orlando that weekend might get a chance to see something I’m going the other way and coming back to New England 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 Those threads back then when he was on the chase was a perfect example how crowd sourcing info can pay dividends. Kind of nostalgic when you think about it. We somehow lost a big dump of fantastic meteorological threads. It is such a shame all that historical discussion is gone. Sure, there were plenty of bad takes. But we were frequented by some really good experts and mets, and blessed a plethora of knowledge. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: 4 hours ago, Seminole said: Those threads back then when he was on the chase was a perfect example how crowd sourcing info can pay dividends. Kind of nostalgic when you think about it. We somehow lost a big dump of fantastic meteorological threads. It is such a shame all that historical discussion is gone. Sure, there were plenty of bad takes. But we were frequented by some really good experts and mets, and blessed a plethora of knowledge. Maybe someone can help, on a somewhat unrelated note, my entire browser is full of ads anytime I'm on this website. It didn't use to be like that. Is that normal? I can't even get to my "quote" box in the bottom right-screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 Beginning of September looks quite active, a juicy fish on the Euro supported by its and GFS' ensembles. 0Z GFS has a long range New England near miss supported when in the Caribbean by ensembles . But the 0/0/0 August isn't impossible. I still think they'll be a named storm, maybe two, although a hurricane this month isn't suggested by the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 We’re starting to hone in on the August 29-first week of September period for a MDR storm (Multiple models showing development of the same waves in this period and strong ensemble support). Will be a race to see if we can get a name by the end of the month, but suffice it to say, I expect September to start much differently than the way August has gone. Interestingly, the 00z GFS developed that disturbance coming off S America that the Icon has shown for a couple days, before the AEWs in question develop. There has periodically been some ensemble support for this system, though shear in the eastern Caribbean looks less favorable than other parts of the basin (But it avoids the suffocating SAL). Something to watch as it’s getting into closer range at least. Lastly, I haven’t given up on the GOM this weekend yet. There looks to be at least some form of an active west Caribbean gyre and models have periodically shown some development out of this feature. Very low chance at this point, but it’s something to watch on the models as we get through this week. On another note, the global dry spell for hurricanes/typhoons was ended this morning in the western pacific. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 21 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said: We’re starting to hone in on the August 29-first week of September period for a MDR storm (Multiple models showing development of the same waves in this period and strong ensemble support). Will be a race to see if we can get a name by the end of the month, but suffice it to say, I expect September to start much differently than the way August has gone. Interestingly, the 00z GFS developed that disturbance coming off S America that the Icon has shown for a couple days, before the AEWs in question develop. There has periodically been some ensemble support for this system, though shear in the eastern Caribbean looks less favorable than other parts of the basin (But it avoids the suffocating SAL). Something to watch as it’s getting into closer range at least. Lastly, I haven’t given up on the GOM this weekend yet. There looks to be at least some form of an active west Caribbean gyre and models have periodically shown some development out of this feature. Very low chance at this point, but it’s something to watch on the models as we get through this week. On another note, the global dry spell for hurricanes/typhoons was ended this morning in the western pacific. Let’s see how much dry air impacts waves coming east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 This is the best developed AEW we've seen so far this season and I believe it will be the one to watch going forward. Already possess a very robust circulation around the embedded low. It is also at a low latitude for when it exits Africa. Should be south of the Cabo Verdes. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 10 hours ago, Floydbuster said: Maybe someone can help, on a somewhat unrelated note, my entire browser is full of ads anytime I'm on this website. It didn't use to be like that. Is that normal? I can't even get to my "quote" box in the bottom right-screen. Ads have become a problem.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 16 minutes ago, Windspeed said: This is the best developed AEW we've seen so far this season and I believe it will be the one to watch going forward. Already possess a very robust circulation around the embedded low. It is also at a low latitude for when it exits Africa. Should be south of the Cabo Verdes. This is one that should produce, but… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 1 hour ago, Windspeed said: This is the best developed AEW we've seen so far this season and I believe it will be the one to watch going forward. Already possess a very robust circulation around the embedded low. It is also at a low latitude for when it exits Africa. Should be south of the Cabo Verdes. The last one even close to being that developed while still over W Africa was more than likely the precursor to Invest 94L/Bonnie, which did look incredible and continued to look amazingly impressive in the E MDR for only being late June. By the way, there is a new lemon for this wave. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 GFS more aggressive with that monsoon trough thing near the Antilles. Maybe we start to see more of a focus on that. Edit: it has trended more consolidated the last ~8 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 Gets to 60W and takes off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 As the 12Z rolls out (and looks scary), it is interesting that last night I noticed the Central Atlantic convection around 55W getting slightly better defined. Noticing some ever-so-slight turning if you use your imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 I'd be curious to what degree the shut-off of the EPAC about two weeks ago has an downstream impact right about now. I know the two basins are inversely correlated (at least with respect to a typical la Nina), but not sure what kind of causation is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 12Z runs that are out so far for the impressive wave over W Africa and what they do over the E MDR: 1. The UKMET doesn't develop this. 2. The GFS, ICON, and JMA have nothing more than a very weak, strung out low. 3. The CMC does a little bit more with it once it gets to near 40W though it is still just a 1008 mb low at hour 240. 4. We await the "King". The disturbance that goes into the Caribbean is obviously much more impressive on especially the GFS as noted above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 9 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: As the 12Z rolls out (and looks scary), it is interesting that last night I noticed the Central Atlantic convection around 55W getting slightly better defined. Noticing some ever-so-slight turning if you use your imagination. There's definitely some vorticity down there and it's getting stronger in recent hours at least based on CIMSS analysis. 850mb 925mb It also has a nice moisture envelope (note that it also looks better in the E Atlantic where the next wave should be) If it can break off and get into the Caribbean without too much shear, it should be a good environment. The ensemble guidance has had a light signal. We'll see if that becomes more modest today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seminole Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 This should grab some folks attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drummer Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 14 minutes ago, Seminole said: This should grab some folks attention. ignoring any issues with initializing (haven't ran it myself), how accurate is this at 240hrs+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 23, 2022 Share Posted August 23, 2022 16 minutes ago, Seminole said: This should grab some folks attention. Not to panic you and not that anything like this will necessarily happen with this wave or any other for that matter, but as I've mentioned previously, the Gulf Coast of FL was hit with substantially in every one of the 8 ENSO analog years to 2022. Also, it was hit more consistently than any other area in the entire basin during those 8 years in the aggregate....fwiw. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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