2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z GFS is back to having a hurricane in the W Atlantic (now the 5th run over the last 5 days or so) with the AEW now in the E Atlantic:

 

 

That has trouble written all over it for almost any US landfall location with a ridge (banana ridge, IIRC is what Bastardi used to call it ( @ldub23)) over the top.  Could be enough weakness in the ridge there with the trough North of it, from that location, this is a ECUSA threat or a near miss.  (What the GFS is showing in 'Silly Season' range)  No need to either respond or PM me that one run at extended time, may be off significantly.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Stalled off the SEUSA coast in 2 weeks is close enough for me to be trouble.

[WxWatcher007]

That ridge building over the top with a trough coming in behind would make folks sweat no doubt about it.

[Floydbuster]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That ridge building over the top with a trough coming in behind would make folks sweat no doubt about it.

Yeah in that run, it misses the weakness and ends up trapped with rebuilding heights above.

[SnoSki14]

52 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Yeah in that run, it misses the weakness and ends up trapped with rebuilding heights above.

Trough digging in Midwest would enhance the ridge ahead of it. 

This would probably go into NC/VA

[WxWatcher007]

Euro follows the GFS this run lol.

[GaWx]

 The 12Z GEFS is the most threatening run to the CONUS from the current E Atlantic AEW since the 0Z 8/18 run. The 6Z 8/18 run had a number of threats but that was mainly from what I consider bogus stuff coming off of the area near Suriname in S America.

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Euro follows the GFS this run lol.

Today's 12Z Euro is only the 2nd Euro op run developing this wave at all. The only other run that did anything with it was the 8/12 12Z run, which ended with this map:

 

So, it took one week of runs for the Euro to develop this AEW at all again!

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Today's 12Z Euro is only the 2nd Euro op run developing this wave at all. The only other run that did anything with it was the 8/12 12Z run, which ended with this map:

 

So, it took one week of runs for the Euro to develop this AEW at all again!

It’d be wild for all the guidance to miss TC genesis for two waves, at such a short range, simultaneously! 

I’m still skeptical since it’s running head first into the driest and most stable part of the MDR, but we’ll see.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

I'm all in on the glass one fiftieth full 60 or 70 knot TC ending the drought for East and Southeast Texas.

 

Been raining today, IAH somehow missed the genuine DFW style severe, and still has over 1.5 inches since this time yesterday.  70 knot may knock out power, and if I can't have CPAP (haven't convinced Mrs. Hurricane Fan to let order off Amazon)

 

My employer has demanded I buy a stylus for who knows how old an iPad that hopefully (PO in) will get software like a TI-84 emulator.  I'd rather buy the CPAP battery.  No, I'm paying.

[GaWx]

The 0Z slams SE FL with a cat 2 H early on 9/2 from the same E Atlantic wave:

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Cowan/TT video on PTC4 had enough time to show (Euro?) ensemble forecast low level and upper level winds, Tl:Dr LL winds become favorable almost basin wide but less favorable than normal UL winds except the W basin.  Leading to late bloomers and a greater SEUSA thread.  See new post above.  10 day ensemble heights says Florida to me.  Not IMBYism, I lived in Florida 83-84, been gone a long time.  I think this means NE USA is good for now, but the transition to Autumn would seem to mean that may not last.

[ldub23]

7 hours ago, GaWx said:

The 0Z slams SE FL with a cat 2 H early on 9/2 from the same E Atlantic wave:

 

As expected  in a dead season it appears to have  been dropped  by the GFS and Euro due to the  continued hideous  conditions. Not  a surprise. Euro has another  low  later  but will be dropped  within a day. GFS has some slop here and there but  basically  nothing. Dead  City.

 

As far as the  BOC, just whats expected  in a dead season.

 

Nothing can get across the Sahara. Pukeworthy season. I cant remember a season where we didnt even have waves to track

 

 

 

*** Please tropical Gods dont  mess  up the  0/0/0 Aug with  a BOC nothing.

[cptcatz]

10 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

As expected  in a dead season it appears to have  been dropped  by the GFS and Euro due to the  continued hideous  conditions. Not  a surprise. Euro has another  low  later  but will be dropped  within a day. GFS has some slop here and there but  basically  nothing. Dead  City.

 

As far as the  BOC, just whats expected  in a dead season.

Euro never had the leading wave doing anything, it has the second wave coming off around 8/24 and the latest euro run 0z is the most bullish with it ending with it at 997 mb. Not sure what you mean by euro dropping it. 

[bigtenfan]

That 0z GFS run was very scary for S FL. Not only was it a direct hit but it hung around the S FL area for something like 24/30 hours with the rainfall measured in feet not inches. The fact that it was only 1 run and it totally disappeared on the next run and GEFS support for that solution  was tepid at best I am skeptical of that actually happening.

 

As for the Euro, yes they have the second wave. To my   very much untrained eye it does look like the 500MB surroundings will allow an escape out to sea. If you look at the last few frames there are certainly signs of a recurve.

 

All that said maybe it is time for us in S FL to review our stocks of hurricane supplies.

 

 

[NorthHillsWx]

5 hours ago, bigtenfan said:

That 0z GFS run was very scary for S FL. Not only was it a direct hit but it hung around the S FL area for something like 24/30 hours with the rainfall measured in feet not inches. The fact that it was only 1 run and it totally disappeared on the next run and GEFS support for that solution  was tepid at best I am skeptical of that actually happening.

 

Guarantee if that scenario happened the storm would slow down about 80-100 miles east of the Florida coast, teasing this board for days with model runs of a major into Miami-Jacksonville somewhere, then end up actually going across the NC outer banks… haha.

I think our first US threat will be a gulf system. All models are forecasting an active west Caribbean gyre, even the Euro without explicitly developing it. This seems very likely as we get into the heart of hurricane season to produce at least a TS that would threaten the gulf coast and this idea has been getting plenty of ensemble love. In a La Niña year this is a very common mode for storm formation, and I think as we get further into the season we will see several threats originate from the west Caribbean moving N/NW into the gulf.

As for the AEWs, that stable dry air must be overcome. Notice even the GFS is representing the feedback from this stable dry mid level layer by holding off real development until the waves are approaching the Bahamas.

The HP setup over the Atlantic is extremely favorable for east coast threats. What does come off the African coast very likely will end up far enough west to be a problem. I believe, still, that the pool of dry air recirculating in the MDR will take a few waves to moisten up and allow development further east. However, the SAL west of roughly the West Indies (60 degrees) is significantly less of a factor and anything making it this far will have a real chance of development. Low Shear and water temps at peak season levels mean anything that survives the hostile MDR will develop. I think after around the 26th-27th we will have our first potential trouble in this area and at a minimum it will pose a threat to the southeast. 

Long story short, I expect our first US threat to be something that forms out of the west Caribbean gyre, followed by something in the SW Atlantic thar probably won’t get it’s act together until it crosses 60 west. Which wave that will be is unknown. Those two areas will be our focal points through the first part of September. I expect a true MDR system in the first 5-8 days of September. 

[cptcatz]

I'm not saying this storm Euro develops is going to be another Irma, but I'm getting serious vibes from ldub's posts regarding 2017's 93L only two days before it was named Irma:

[ldub23]

40 minutes ago, cptcatz said:

I'm not saying this storm Euro develops is going to be another Irma, but I'm getting serious vibes from ldub's posts regarding 2017's 93L only two days before it was named Irma:

Mocking  me  hasnt worked  out that well so far this season, lol. Now you  have  cursed the  next wave as well. I  have doubts it will amount to anything. Greg  Postel was talking about  it  and then ended with saying there  is  no guarantee conditions will be any more favorable  in a week than they are  now. Its  possible  it  could  be a  nothing storm that  croaks soon after developing.

 

WHERE'S THE  BEEF?

[SnoSki14]

There's zero shot of a 0/0/0 August.

Models are very bullish on development going forward. 

[WxWatcher007]

We have to acknowledge that virtually everything has been a struggle in this basin thus far.

We’re only now approaching the 20th and there’s a long way to go, but it really is put up or shut up time. Preseason is over and the clock is ticking now. 

Things have been getting better but it’s clearly not enough yet for any meaningful activity.

[Floydbuster]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We have to acknowledge that virtually everything has been a struggle in this basin thus far.

We’re only now approaching the 20th and there’s a long way to go, but it really is put up or shut up time. Preseason is over and the clock is ticking now. 

Things have been getting better but it’s clearly not enough yet for any meaningful activity.

 

That's just not true at all though.

In 1999, we didn't get Hurricane Floyd or Hurricane Irene or Hurricane Lenny until Sept 13th.

In 2000, it was October 1st when we had three developing hurricanes (Isaac, Joyce and Keith).

Those are two of todays analog years. La Nina years have more active September and Octobers.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

 

That's just not true at all though.

In 1999, we didn't get Hurricane Floyd or Hurricane Irene or Hurricane Lenny until Sept 13th.

In 2000, it was October 1st when we had three developing hurricanes (Isaac, Joyce and Keith).

Those are two of todays analog years. La Nina years have more active September and Octobers.

I got that—and I’m not saying season cancel, or that we won’t get some CVs—it’ll still be active IMO.

But the MDR is still quite hostile as evidenced by the continued presence of stability/dry air that has caused every robust wave the last six weeks or so to fail to develop. None of the ones in the coming week have particularly high odds to develop in the tropical Atlantic due to the ongoing conditions, either. 

Recent years have focused most activity on the western Atlantic and if we don’t see greater strides in the next two weeks I think it’ll likely be the case this year as well. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, ldub23 said:

Mocking  me  hasnt worked  out that well so far this season, lol. Now you  have  cursed the  next wave as well. I  have doubts it will amount to anything. Greg  Postel was talking about  it  and then ended with saying there  is  no guarantee conditions will be any more favorable  in a week than they are  now. Its  possible  it  could  be a  nothing storm that  croaks soon after developing.

 

WHERE'S THE  BEEF?

You do seem to have a pattern of saying nothing will happen, and then being wrong.  I remember Harvey quite well, people around here died, some who went to my church.  Maybe you will be rewarded as the broken clock this year, there'll always be an occasional 2013 season, but tonight's Mexico nothing burger would have been a something burger with a little more ocean time.  Did I mention Euro ensemble heights are screaming Florida or SEUSA and, per a PhD, Cowan, the basin is soon quite favorable UL and LL W part of basin, where storms have less change to safely recurve then CV storms. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

SEASON CANCEL!!!!

[cptcatz]

57 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I got that—and I’m not saying season cancel, or that we won’t get some CVs—it’ll still be active IMO.

But the MDR is still quite hostile as evidenced by the continued presence of stability/dry air that has caused every robust wave the last six weeks or so to fail to develop. None of the ones in the coming week have particularly high odds to develop in the tropical Atlantic due to the ongoing conditions, either. 

Recent years have focused most activity on the western Atlantic and if we don’t see greater strides in the next two weeks I think it’ll likely be the case this year as well. 

As noted in ldub's posts from late August 2017, the MDR was quite hostile then too until Irma flipped the switch.  It's only hostile until it's not, and models are in agreement that that will flip possibly next week. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

This is extending beyond the end of the GFS, which is 6 days of lower model resolution, this clearly won't verify precisely, it may not verify at all, I criticize anyone using a 384 hour GFS to prove the basin is dead, but the storm location and the trough location, even if this fishes, it'll at least give the Hatteras area a very close call.  Not a forecast, but based on prior runs and ensembles, it is quite possible.  And before that, a weaker East Central Gulf storm, which could be stronger, weaker or not at all, but which also has ensemble support.  

[NorthHillsWx]

I think we’re in for some big east coast impacts over the remainder of the season, though I would drastically cut season numbers based on when the season looks to get going. I think this season ends up with 14-16 NS, 7-8 hurricanes, and 3 majors. And I think at least 3 hurricanes will threaten the east coast with at least 1 actual landfall. Not hype, just looking at the basin, upper air pattern and consistent HP placement, and lack of significant shear especially with that large HP entrenched over the mid latitudes. As floydbyster points out, there are some great analog years for this season with loaded September and octobers. Dry, stable air can be overcome, and the wave train that is almost unanimously forecast to accelerate off the African coast in the coming weeks will fix that issue. This will still be a very significant season with major impact potential, and higher than normal impacts between cape hatteras through the east coast of Florida 

[yoda]

 

[olafminesaw]

I can't help bet have a gut feeling that while we won't get big numbers this year, we'll get a Hugo/Isabel type track at some point 

[Floydbuster]

Good grief. 384 hrs but still. Frances anyone?