2022 Atlantic Hurricane season

[NorthHillsWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Maybe I've cracked or gone full weenie, but I'm still intrigued by the lemon that's now trekking over Central America and southern Mexico. The wave has done a good job of having persistent convection which peaks during the diurnal cycle. It's not organized, but there's modest vorticity. 

There is some shear present, and I'm not sure how much remains when it gets to the BOC late tonight/early tomorrow. I really do think if this convective cycle continues this one has a legit chance of development. It may need some help with a low developing further east to buy more time before land interaction. 

Maybe I'm just wrong for the 14,000th time this season  

I know everyone likes the potential of the MDR stuff, but homebrew is where it's at for me. Good forecasting test. 

 

It does have “the look” of one that might develop. I’m honestly shocked models haven’t really picked up on it. Seems to be more organized than any modeling would indicate at this point. 

[WxWatcher007]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located 
over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico have become a little 
better organized since yesterday. This system is forecast to emerge 
into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, where an area of low pressure 
could form. After that, additional slow development of this system 
is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf 
of Mexico.  By Saturday night, the system is expected to move 
inland over northeastern Mexico.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane 
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, 
if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven

 

[SnoSki14]

Yeah this could quickly spin up. BoC has been an extremely favorable area of development 

[ldub23]

This was issued Aug 09 and its been dead since then. I have averaged  out the  numbers. 8.5 hurricanes, 4 majors, 138 ace for the remainder  of the season. All i can say is if we get to these  numbers  it will be a wild ride  indeed. Im doubtful, but read for yourselves.

 

https://www.cfact.org/2022/08/18/2022-hurricane-update/

 

"I think we will see a fast and furious period from mid and late August into early September, followed by a lull and then another active period. I don’t have any below normal risk impact areas, though there certainly will be when the season is looked at retrospectively."

 

Mid to late Aug is  here and no canes, no majors.

[GaWx]

7 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

This was issued Aug 09 and its been dead since then. I have averaged  out the  numbers. 8.5 hurricanes, 4 majors, 138 ace for the remainder  of the season. All i can say is if we get to these  numbers  it will be a wild ride  indeed. Im doubtful, but read for yourselves.

 

https://www.cfact.org/2022/08/18/2022-hurricane-update/

 

"I think we will see a fast and furious period from mid and late August into early September, followed by a lull and then another active period. I don’t have any below normal risk impact areas, though there certainly will be when the season is looked at retrospectively."

 

Mid to late Aug is  here and no canes, no majors.

 This is Joe Bastardi you're talking about, the hyper/weeniecaster in chief. He's not one imho to use as a barometer of forecasters. Besides being a weenie, he wants clicks. Who else predicted a very active period starting in mid August?

[GaWx]

 The 12Z GEFS is harping on another system even further west (coming off NW S America) instead of the likely bogus one off of NE S America that the 6Z GEFS was harping on and the AEW now just off of Africa that the 0Z and earlier GEFS were harping on. Thus the GEFS runs don't give me a lot of confidence.

[olafminesaw]

20 minutes ago, ldub23 said:

This was issued Aug 09 and its been dead since then. I have averaged  out the  numbers. 8.5 hurricanes, 4 majors, 138 ace for the remainder  of the season. All i can say is if we get to these  numbers  it will be a wild ride  indeed. Im doubtful, but read for yourselves.

 

https://www.cfact.org/2022/08/18/2022-hurricane-update/

 

"I think we will see a fast and furious period from mid and late August into early September, followed by a lull and then another active period. I don’t have any below normal risk impact areas, though there certainly will be when the season is looked at retrospectively."

 

Mid to late Aug is  here and no canes, no majors.

 

[NorthHillsWx]

I’m really not sure why the system over the Yucatán has not been designated as an Invest yet. Looks to me if it emerges off the coast in the same condition it’s currently in it would develop quickly. I don’t see a lot of shear in that part of the Gulf and it is in a favorable area for quick spinups. I saw they increased it to 30% of developing over the next couple days. I may even go higher than that. Unless it dies off overnight while over land 

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m really not sure why the system over the Yucatán has not been designated as an Invest yet. Looks to me if it emerges off the coast in the same condition it’s currently in it would develop quickly. I don’t see a lot of shear in that part of the Gulf and it is in a favorable area for quick spinups. I saw they increased it to 30% of developing over the next couple days. I may even go higher than that. Unless it dies off overnight while over land 

It is now Invest 99L. New thread:

 

[NorthHillsWx]

21 minutes ago, GaWx said:

It is now Invest 99L. New thread:

 

I willed it to an Invest 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I willed it to an Invest 

Ask and ye shall receive. 

[GaWx]

For the record/fwiw, the 12Z Euro has no TC in the entire basin through the entire run.

[WxWatcher007]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

For the record/fwiw, the 12Z Euro has no TC in the entire basin through the entire run.

It doesn't but it has the wave train going by around this time next week. Just need the instability to build out there. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

4 hours ago, thunderbolt said:

You know what else is  Kind of odd is that there’s no storms in the western Pacific eastern Pacific Atlantic golf nowhere to be found all is quiet All the basins are Crickets

 

I don't know why EPac was so busy for so long, but even with a cool ENSO I am pretty sure just the outflow from the never ending systems kept the Caribbean quiet.  How the dry air and associated high is so entrenched over the EATL into the MDR, I have no clue.  But everything seems so Ninoish in a cool year.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z GEFS is harping on another system even further west (coming off NW S America) instead of the likely bogus one off of NE S America that the 6Z GEFS was harping on and the AEW now just off of Africa that the 0Z and earlier GEFS were harping on. Thus the GEFS runs don't give me a lot of confidence.

I used to try to track forecast systems backwards with 850 mb vorticity to try to see the current satellite, and they'd often come from elongated vorticity that seemed to be the monsoon trough/ITCZ.  Sometimes maybe a small wave moved into that on the NE South American coast a few days earlier and the timing could have been right.  I'll need a real SW Caribbean/Gulf developer to see if this really does get modelled, but I think it isn't always spurious

[ldub23]

Another  5 yard false start  penalty  or finally the real deal? Check the  lower  right.

 

 

Its  put  up or  shut  up time

 

 

[Windspeed]

It's 300+ hrs out. Global OPs are going to fantasy 'cane a gazillion times during climatological peak. Then lose them. Then bring them back., etc., etc., ad nauseam. Who cares... Focus on the ensembles. Or go ahead and continue posting 384 hr maps because, Sept. 3rd, really? Ugh...

Edit: Wait, I just noticed that was Idub who posted that. I feel Rick Rolled.

[CheeselandSkies]

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

It's 300+ hrs out. Global OPs are going to fantasy 'cane a gazillion times during climatological peak. Then lose them. Then bring them back., etc., etc., ad nauseam. Who cares... Focus on the ensembles. Or go ahead and continue posting 384 hr maps because, Sept. 3rd, really? Ugh...

Edit: Wait, I just noticed that was Idub who posted that. I feel Rick Rolled.

The trendy thing this season seems to be to throw out the ensembles unless the OPs are on board, when it always used to be vice versa. Seen it here and on S2K, quite possibly the same people.

[thunderbolt]

I found this tweet very interesting

[StormchaserChuck!]

+PNA pattern models day 16, been correlating to no activity. 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Not only are the GEFS and ECENS active in 10 days, they look similar to each other in location and relative number of members, op Euro 10 day big ticket isn't recurving immediately.

[cptcatz]

Overnight Euro, ICON and CMC are all back with developing the second wave leaving Africa on 8/24.  Now the GFS is alone not developing that one...

[WxWatcher007]

What is the GFS trying to do out in the MDR???

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What is the GFS trying to do out in the MDR???

 The 12Z GFS is the most organized run with the "lead" AEW that came off ~two days ago since way back on the 6Z run of 8/17. Interesting because this is the AEW that lead to 4 GFS runs with a H in the W Atlantic and numerous GEFS as well as some EPS members that lead to Caribbean and/or SE and Gulf threats to the US.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The 12Z GFS is the most organized run with the "lead" AEW that came off ~two days ago since way back on the 6Z run of 8/17. Interesting because this is the AEW that lead to 4 GFS runs with a H in the W Atlantic and numerous GEFS as well as some EPS members that lead to Caribbean and/or SE and Gulf threats to the US.

This is the lead wave? I lost track. It’s so odd that it plows it right into the heart of the dry air lol.

I will say, it’s a good sign for TC genesis generally to see the MDR with convective activity.

[GaWx]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This is the lead wave? I lost track. It’s so odd that it plows it right into the heart of the dry air lol.

I will say, it’s a good sign for TC genesis generally to see the MDR with convective activity.

 This is the same wave that lead to most of those strong W basin TCs (those near the E Caribbean were around 8/26-28 and those near US were ~8/29-9/1). If you go on Tropical Tidbits and look at past GFS and GEFS runs, you can see it clearly.

[GaWx]

Meanwhile, the 12Z UKMET is the first with a TC on it in many days and the first in the MDR since even further back/probably weeks. This is NOT the same AEW just discussed above (no UKMET run has developed that one) as regards the GFS but rather is a later one not coming off Africa for a few more days:

 

       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
              FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.2N  18.0W

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    1200UTC 24.08.2022  120  15.2N  18.0W     1004            32
    0000UTC 25.08.2022  132  16.4N  20.1W     1007            26
    1200UTC 25.08.2022  144  16.6N  23.0W     1006            27

[GaWx]

 The 12Z GFS is back to having a hurricane in the W Atlantic (now the 5th run over the last 5 days or so) with the AEW now in the E Atlantic:

 

 As I said, this makes 5 GFS runs with a W Atlantic H from the AEW now in the E Atlantic. These are the runs: 8/15 0Z, 8/16 6Z, 8/17 0Z, 8/17 6Z, and 8/19 12Z.

[ldub23]

56 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

What is the GFS trying to do out in the MDR???

It  brings  back the cane  it dropped. Almost a good enough pattern.

 

 

30 hours  later  it  hasnt  moved a whole  lot and looks to get trapped  under the  high

 

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Just playing around with the run…it looks like the trough to the north isn’t enough to kick it OTS. Ridge rebuilding in the Midwest. 

No ridge over the top or GL cutoff though so no direct line toward the US.