StormchaserChuck! Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Nice +AMO https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/product/5km/index_5km_ssta.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 27, 2022 Author Share Posted January 27, 2022 we're trying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 9, 2022 Author Share Posted February 9, 2022 really cold in the West,.. we aren't really paralleling not being allowed to animate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 2020 had a strong +NAO Feb14-28, like we are going to. 2015 had a +NAO, those are the two analogs in the last 20 years to a snapshot of Atlantic pattern now, a lot of Atlantic storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 Latest ENSO showing we could have a cool-neutral scenario at peak season: Which equates to a high average ACE: Eager to see how high the forecasts will be... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted March 1, 2022 Share Posted March 1, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 On 2/9/2022 at 3:21 AM, StormchaserChuck! said: really cold in the West,.. we aren't really paralleling not being allowed to animate If there had been satellites then, 1933 might have easily matched 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jessy89 Posted March 26, 2022 Share Posted March 26, 2022 Looking forward to tropical weather such a fun season. Not as fun as winter storms but still interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted April 7, 2022 Share Posted April 7, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted April 9, 2022 Share Posted April 9, 2022 Anticipation high. Yet every year it is high, part of the passion I guess.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted April 11, 2022 Author Share Posted April 11, 2022 The Hadley Cell really flexed this Winter, we had a +180dm N. Pacific anomaly, when the average for a Weak-Nina is +60dm+60dm 30% error. I think that general energy potential should extend into the Atlantic Hurricane season, keeping warm SSTs/calmer conditions generally farther north through the season. ENSO state is the wild card. vland/ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted April 22, 2022 Share Posted April 22, 2022 First real GFS fantasy tropical system of the season! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 57 minutes ago, jconsor said: I am seeing mention of 2007, another cold ENSO season, high ACE but a lot of storms that run almost due West in the Caribbean/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 6, 2022 Share Posted May 6, 2022 On 4/22/2022 at 12:38 PM, cptcatz said: First real GFS fantasy tropical system of the season! So close, but Dr. Knabb mentioned Wednesday the then Plain tornado maker mid-upper low, now into the Ohio Valley/East, may get trapped and form an STC. GEFS not totally hostile to that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 8, 2022 Author Share Posted May 8, 2022 Weak El Nino coming for Hurricane Season I saw this last year there was a statistical anomaly/point, let's see if it carries this year. Quote --SSTs are super warm and warming. We had a streak of like 10 consecutive years with El Nino of 12 or less names storms, and some even in the middle of a really active period in the 2000s. In 2018-2019, the last El Nino we had 15 named storms. It will be interesting to see if can break that 15 number mark, it seems other conditions are super favorable. (We had 8 named storms in 14-15 a weak El Nino lol) [Averaged like 9 storms in El Nino when the average is 20] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted May 10, 2022 Share Posted May 10, 2022 There's been some pretty solid signal for long range development in the western Caribbean. Both GFS and Euro are sniffing it out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted May 11, 2022 Share Posted May 11, 2022 On 5/9/2022 at 8:51 PM, cptcatz said: There's been some pretty solid signal for long range development in the western Caribbean. Both GFS and Euro are sniffing it out... 6z GFS went all in on it. Has a hurricane hitting Florida in May… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted May 11, 2022 Author Share Posted May 11, 2022 Wettest I've seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 GFS/GFES is really locked in on a cyclone forming in the western Caribbean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brentrich Posted May 12, 2022 Share Posted May 12, 2022 Wow look at that beast and it's not even June yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted May 13, 2022 Share Posted May 13, 2022 Today's 12z marks 10 GFS runs in a row with a sub-990 mb storm forming and cyclogenesis is now within a week out... Wouldn't be a good way to start off the season with a GFS bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 I'm supposed to be in Florida the 19th - 23rd. Guess I'll have to watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 Gfs keeps showing a tropical low in the gulf every run. No other model has it at all though. Still amazing to see the GFS’s consistency even this far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 Has my attention. At least something to look at every day. We need rain in the Tampa Bay area, so hoping maybe a mild Tropical Storm to kick off the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted May 14, 2022 Share Posted May 14, 2022 2 hours ago, Prospero said: Has my attention. At least something to look at every day. We need rain in the Tampa Bay area, so hoping maybe a mild Tropical Storm to kick off the season. This good enough for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 GFS shifted south, between Cuba and Florida. Certainly it will be all over the place for the next week. A good typical late May Tropical Storm around here would not be totally unwelcome. Although always inconvenient for some in low areas or with weak trees. I'd love to host the first Storm of the season. No Hurricanes invited... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted May 15, 2022 Share Posted May 15, 2022 GFS still hanging onto this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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