Sciascia Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 21 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: The old threads are still there it's just a matter of trying to find images still on there showing accumulations at this range. But IIRC and finding a few random images confirms it, amounts for that storm/the top end fcst amounts were not as high as what we are seeing with this one. I think the biggest parallel it has to GHD I is that (if I’m remembering correctly) it’s been showing a major (8+ inches) snow system over the region 7-8 days out from the start. Obviously, we have days to go before the consistency can be fully judged. But if so, would be like GHD I in a modeling perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 A few of the gefs members are crazy... talking like 3" qpf in the snow area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: A few of the gefs members are crazy... talking like 3" qpf in the snow area. Post some maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Post some maps On my phone but you can see them on COD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 00z GEFS members, mean (with sample points), 6"+ probs, and 12"+ probs. Hopefully 00z ECMWF and EPS hold serve if not improve. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 No matter how it pans out gang, I'm glad to have this opportunity to share with each and every one of you 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: On my phone but you can see them on COD. I know. I was just being lazy. Lol. Thanks for posting though @RCNYILWX mucho appreciated 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: 00z GEFS members, mean (with sample points), 6"+ probs, and 12"+ probs. Hopefully 00z ECMWF and EPS hold serve if not improve. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Very impressive around Chicago for a 10:1 mean at this distance. IF we can get the heaviest synoptic band to run through the area combined with such a prolonged period of lake enhancement, there's no telling what could happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I know the Canadian ensembles (GEPS) aren't nearly as commonly cited as the EPS and GEFS, but they too were more juiced with the 00z run than the 12z run. The operational run is not something that can be fully discounted, but viewed in the context of the ensemble shows that there's a majority of members with an evolution that results in main snow swath farther north. This is one of the reasons I don't really get too caught up in the UKMET. Without access to the ensemble, there's no way to know how it fits within the spread of the ensemble output. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Thundersnow12 said: The old threads are still there it's just a matter of trying to find images still on there showing accumulations at this range. But IIRC and finding a few random images confirms it, amounts for that storm/the top end fcst amounts were not as high as what we are seeing with this one. I still have alot of those images on my old computer. That did briefly trend south to the point of being a i70 special but then came back north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: I know the Canadian ensembles (GEPS) aren't nearly as commonly cited as the EPS and GEFS, but they too were more juiced with the 00z run than the 12z run. The operational run is not something that can be fully discounted, but viewed in the context of the ensemble shows that there's a majority of members with an evolution that results in main snow swath farther north. This is one of the reasons I don't really get too caught up in the UKMET. Without access to the ensemble, there's no way to know how it fits within the spread of the ensemble output. Yeah definitely a scenario that can happen if that arctic high pushes east and south quicker. The air mass coming in behind this is pretty impressively cold so that would definitely shunt precip south if that arctic high positioned too close to our area. Hoping that's not the case. Really haven't had a solid winter storm yet here this year. Just a few minor to moderate events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Not feeling too optimistic about being this far northwest. Looks like a wicked hit for someone too. Really too bad. Euro is a tick south of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Euro continues the trend Joe was mentioning. Naso good. Alek gonna be punting come morning and can’t say I blame him. Still crazy high amounts in the main axis but that axis is Indy to NW OH. A snoozer axis 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Yeah it won’t be a very productive weekend with all the model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 13 minutes ago, hlcater said: Not feeling too optimistic about being this far northwest. Looks like a wicked hit for someone too. Really too bad. Euro is a tick south of 12z Well heavy snow swath ended up a lot more than a tick south. Man that was a painful run. Going to absolutely suck to miss out on this if I do because it's going to be close and whoever gets in on this will probably see some impressive double digit totals. Going to be a long few days..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 It's just one run of the Euro this far out lmao, anyone could still get the highest amounts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Euro continues the trend Joe was mentioning. Naso good. Alek gonna be punting come morning and can’t say I blame him. Still crazy high amounts in the main axis but that axis is Indy to NW OH. A snoozer axis Yeah unfortunately I wouldn't be shocked to see the south trend continue. I mean missed the last storm nw so might as well miss one se now. Ha. Hoping it can come back north some but it's going to be limited because of that arctic high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 The corridor the Euro smashes is overdue to be sure, so that is nice to see. Definitely gonna be painful to miss the best event of the season so far though, if Euro solution works out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 We got time. We've all been through this before. If the trend is your friend this early out anecdotally you've got a problem. The important thing is that regardless of the shifting, the snow amounts remain impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Idk. Maybe it's finally my time lol. Still not getting hopes up til maybe Monday. It doesn't feel real in Indy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 The more important thing is that it's still a very big snow on the Euro. I'd be more concerned if there were significant backing off on amounts in the main corridor than shifts in placement at this point. The stakes are high so we'll probably be living and dying with each model/cycle more than usual. Lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, Hoosier said: The more important thing is that it's still a very big snow on the Euro. I'd be more concerned if there were significant backing off on amounts in the main corridor than shifts in placement at this point. The stakes are high so we'll probably be living and dying with each model/cycle more than usual. Lol This to the nth degree. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Euro continues the trend Joe was mentioning. Naso good. Alek gonna be punting come morning and can’t say I blame him. Still crazy high amounts in the main axis but that axis is Indy to NW OH. A snoozer axis If it was the euro of yesteryear I would be punting too. That model and this region don't have a decent record in recent years with winter events. Tomorrow I'll fire up the old computer to see which model it was that did what the euro is kinda doing at this range with the suppression crap. Ofcourse this is still a ways out and many things can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The more important thing is that it's still a very big snow on the Euro. I'd be more concerned if there were significant backing off on amounts in the main corridor than shifts in placement at this point. The stakes are high so we'll probably be living and dying with each model/cycle more than usual. Lol Yeah good point. Nice to see it's not a strung out pos that's shifted south like so many times in the recent past lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Wake me up once the Euro stops showing 3 inches of QPF. The drawn-out nature of the system is leading to decreased overall accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Anyone have euro kuchera totals? Just for curiosity in Indy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 The full operational ECMWF runs have actually had quite a bit of variability the past few days. Just last night had a similar situation. Changes aloft were overall fairly subtle from the 12z run that resulted in farther south orientation of the heaviest banding. We're still well far out enough that various aspects of this setup of far from being nailed down. You can point to a particular feature on the operational runs to be rightfully concerned about if that's how it plays out. We still have plenty of other data to say that this run and the other operational runs fall well within envelope of solutions that we've seen of the ensemble members.Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Luckily we have the 00Z ICON's rain/snow line up around the Kenosha WI area to help balance out the UK/ECMWF lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah good point. Nice to see it's not a strung out pos that's shifted south like so many times in the recent past lol. Despite what I said in my other post, I'd be lying if there wasn't some sense of personal deflation after that run. Have to constantly fight the urge to overreact to individual runs at this point. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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