zinski1990 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Being in Indy. Just curious what thats showing for ice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Sitting in the jackpot zone, I basically need to take a 4 day nap so I don't lose my mind tracking this thing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 36 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yep, these kinds of storms can turn out very well in the city proper even if heaviest synoptic band is south. Yeah there's northern fringe then imby northern fringe. If Euro track verifies wouldn't like my chances. Don't remember Champaign to Indy bullseye ever working out here too well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, zinski1990 said: Being in Indy. Just curious what thats showing for ice lol I am trying to not think about it. Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: Not sure where you work (didn't know you were a met) but I've noticed they are usually quite conservative in the extended forecast these days, at least DTX NWS. Way too conservative actually. Often not even putting in a chance of snow when they should (not talking this week, talking in general). Then on the other end of the spectrum you have those dumb Facebook weather pages that amass a huge following of the weather ignorant public and they start doing stupid things like posting op model runs a week out. I'm not a met, I work behind the scenes for a local TV station here in Madison. *Edit: I see why he did that now with those Euro maps, I was looking at the GFS which gave us 11" Kuchera on the latest run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 57 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Yesterday's ensembles signaled that south may be the way to go. I'm not putting much faith in the nw outlier GFS. A few days ago models were showing a deep western trough and eastern ridge, with a torch surging north into the lakes. Since then, models have gradually transferred energy from the west to the north... now too much pressing for Iowa. I mean...I have mixed feelings that we trended away from that pattern now, but it'd be nice if we could book it for April/May. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said: I mean...I have mixed feelings that we trended away from that pattern now, but it'd be nice if we could book it for April/May. Thats how I feel. At this time of year any SE ridge just annoys me with upper 30s and low 40s. But every week forward the averages start increasing that by mid march a nice SE ridge is 50s here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 But back to the storm. Its definitely got my attention now. I missed the one last week so this would be a nice consolation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Keeping hawkeye posters invested 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 fwiw, slower probably the way to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Might be safe to say I have never seen a model spit out 30" for LAF in one storm. 2 feet, yes Let’s f*cking do this. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Chicago WX said: Let’s f*cking do this. Welcome back sir. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Let’s f*cking do this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: fwiw, slower probably the way to go Too bad too as slower in this instance probably means south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Let’s f*cking do this. Hey hey! We got most of the crew back! Lets turn this up!!!! Edit! Where is bowme? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 13 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Let’s f*cking do this. There you is. And yes, let's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, hlcater said: Too bad too as slower in this instance probably means south. I'm curious to find out the answer to that question (how does a slower shift change the game) too - poring over the mid-levels of the last six GFS runs suggests the 'fastest' with trough ejection eastwards was either today's 00z or the 1/27 06z; 'slowest' (or, at the same time, the furthest south with the trough) was this most recent 12z followed by today's 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Definitely excited for the widespread significant snow swath with this system. Models doing their typical north to south wobbles. I'm liking where I sit for now but am definitely nervous as we get closer that a south trend may ensue. Really strong arctic high and that cf coming through a day or so before this system hits has me a bit on edge. I know I have faired better than others in IL this winter but still haven't had a warning criteria snowstorm. Just got missed barely to nw on last one and would be a shame to barely get missed se on this one. Definitely eager to see how this pans out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Wind gusts/temperature 6 PM Thursday from the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Time to activate the NW trend. C’mon Korean model. In all seriousness looks like a very solid storm for much of the sub, and deep deep cold for me. Flying to Chicago Saturday morning February 5th so here’s to hoping it’s stacked high when I arrive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 12z GEFS and EPS mean…. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 love 2 see it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GEFS and EPS mean… . Interesting. Must be enough EPS members north of the op for it to look like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Been a while since we've seen a Chi-town to D-town axis like that. Prevents a lot of arguing, lol. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 part of Ricky writeup A look at the 12z GEFS and ECMWF (EPS) ensemble mean and members certainly stands out for increasing confidence in a significant winter event for part of if not much of the CWA despite the rather extended lead time. 4-day (10:1) snowfall means up in 5-9" range, along with 30-40% probabilities of 6"+ totals and 60-90% probabilities of 3"+ totals highlights the high % of members with significant snow swaths. Can`t rule out the outlier members with everything shunted a bit south, though with that said, felt comfortable even slightly adjusting PoPs upward a bit from NBM initialization due to likely to categorical probabilities of measurable precip. Regarding the wintry mix threat, should a more amplified wave shunt elevated baroclinic zone back north a bit (such as on 12z operational GFS and several ensemble members), this would increase risk of a zone of freezing rain and sleet given northerly cold air drain. Added in slight chance wintry mix mention for areas south of US-24 Wednesday through Wednesday evening. Timing wise, looking at a late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning start, though there`s certainly wiggle room on this element 5 days out. Accumulating snow could potentially continue into or through Thursday per some of the slower solutions, ending as a window of favorable lake effect parameters Thursday night into Friday. If we do add to the already extensive snow pack, both Thursday night and Friday night could be exceptionally cold as the high pressure transits our area. Castro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 26 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Been a while since we've seen a Chi-town to D-town axis like that. Prevents a lot of arguing, lol. Feb 15/16, 2021 honorable mention ORD: 6.9" DTW: 10.4" TOL: 14.5" But here's calling Feb 1/2, 2015 ORD: 18.0" DTW: 16.7" TOL: 12.0" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 hours ago, Weather Mike said: I like Chi metro position as others have mentioned. Plus this will wobble back north and south some so let’s see where this eventually ends up. Downtown Chicago has numbers in double digits for every one of those runs. And ORD in all but one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Where do I go to sell my soul for the 12z Euro to be right? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Just now, Stebo said: Where do I go to sell my soul for the 12z Euro to be right? since we've seen some old time poster re-emerge I'd say a weekend camping with Bowme in Wisky's northwoods. As I recall, you guys always hit it off. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Feb 15/16, 2021 honorable mention ORD: 6.9" DTW: 10.4" TOL: 14.5" But here's calling Feb 1/2, 2015 ORD: 18.0" DTW: 16.7" TOL: 12.0" I was thinking about that 2015. Didn't realize ( probably just forgot ) ORD finished with the same total as here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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