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Feb 1 -3 GHD III


Brian D
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36 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yep, these kinds of storms can turn out very well in the city proper even if heaviest synoptic band is south.

Yeah there's northern fringe then imby northern fringe. If Euro track verifies wouldn't like my chances. Don't remember Champaign to Indy bullseye ever working out here too well

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Not sure where you work (didn't know you were a met) but I've noticed they are usually quite conservative in the extended forecast these days, at least DTX NWS. Way too conservative actually. Often not even putting in a chance of snow when they should (not talking this week, talking in general). Then on the other end of the spectrum you have those dumb Facebook weather pages that amass a huge following of the weather ignorant public and they start doing stupid things like posting op model runs a week out.

I'm not a met, I work behind the scenes for a local TV station here in Madison.

*Edit: I see why he did that now with those Euro maps, I was looking at the GFS which gave us 11" Kuchera on the latest run.

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57 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Yesterday's ensembles signaled that south may be the way to go.  I'm not putting much faith in the nw outlier GFS.

A few days ago models were showing a deep western trough and eastern ridge, with a torch surging north into the lakes.  Since then, models have gradually transferred energy from the west to the north... now too much pressing for Iowa.

I mean...I have mixed feelings that we trended away from that pattern now, but it'd be nice if we could book it for April/May.

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1 minute ago, CheeselandSkies said:

I mean...I have mixed feelings that we trended away from that pattern now, but it'd be nice if we could book it for April/May.

Thats how I feel. At this time of year any SE ridge just annoys me with upper 30s and low 40s. But every week forward the averages start increasing that by mid march a nice SE ridge is 50s here. 

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10 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Too bad too as slower in this instance probably means south.

I'm curious to find out the answer to that question (how does a slower shift change the game) too - poring over the mid-levels of the last six GFS runs suggests the 'fastest' with trough ejection eastwards was either today's 00z or the 1/27 06z; 'slowest' (or, at the same time, the furthest south with the trough) was this most recent 12z followed by today's 06z.

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Definitely excited for the widespread significant snow swath with this system. Models doing their typical north to south wobbles. I'm liking where I sit for now but am definitely nervous as we get closer that a south trend may ensue. Really strong arctic high and that cf coming through a day or so before this system hits has me a bit on edge. I know I have faired better than others in IL this winter but still haven't had a warning criteria snowstorm. Just got missed barely to nw on last one and would be a shame to barely get missed se on this one. Definitely eager to see how this pans out. 

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part of Ricky writeup

A look at the 12z GEFS and ECMWF (EPS) ensemble mean and members
certainly stands out for increasing confidence in a significant
winter event for part of if not much of the CWA despite the rather
extended lead time. 4-day (10:1) snowfall means up in 5-9" range,
along with 30-40% probabilities of 6"+ totals and 60-90% probabilities
of 3"+ totals highlights the high % of members with significant
snow swaths. Can`t rule out the outlier members with everything
shunted a bit south, though with that said, felt comfortable even
slightly adjusting PoPs upward a bit from NBM initialization due
to likely to categorical probabilities of measurable precip.
Regarding the wintry mix threat, should a more amplified wave
shunt elevated baroclinic zone back north a bit (such as on 12z
operational GFS and several ensemble members), this would
increase risk of a zone of freezing rain and sleet given northerly
cold air drain. Added in slight chance wintry mix mention for
areas south of US-24 Wednesday through Wednesday evening.

Timing wise, looking at a late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning
start, though there`s certainly wiggle room on this element 5 days
out. Accumulating snow could potentially continue into or through
Thursday per some of the slower solutions, ending as a window of
favorable lake effect parameters Thursday night into Friday. If we
do add to the already extensive snow pack, both Thursday night and
Friday night could be exceptionally cold as the high pressure
transits our area.

Castro
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2 hours ago, Weather Mike said:

I like Chi metro position as others have mentioned. Plus this will wobble back north and south some so let’s see where this eventually ends up. 

Downtown Chicago has numbers in double digits for every one of those runs. And ORD in all but one.

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18 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Feb 15/16, 2021 honorable mention

ORD: 6.9"

DTW: 10.4"

TOL: 14.5"

 

But here's calling Feb 1/2, 2015

ORD: 18.0"

DTW: 16.7"

TOL: 12.0"

 

I was thinking about that 2015. Didn't realize ( probably just forgot )  ORD finished with the same total as here. 

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