mississaugasnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: I still believe being fringed on the north side is more of a risk for us than any mixing issues. I know we’re all talking snow amounts but I think the Ice signal for one of the bigger ice storms in a while may happen. That one will be tricky because it will come down to miles. Where does the cold front stall and how quick does the cold air bleed in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I wonder when we get Natester back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, mimillman said: I wonder when we get Natester back 0z ICON 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Chicago Storm said: There are several pieces to the puzzle. PV well north up in Canada, a disturbance currently cut off well offshore of California, lead waves coming onshore in BC/Pac NW, and then lastly another wave that will dive into the Pac NW from Alaska. Yikes. I think we can see why so much volatility in the model solutions today, and prob more on the way. Gonna be a long 48 hrs lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 hours ago, WeatherMonger said: Ok all you OH peeps, stick to that promise you made earlier today. You know. The one you said you would trade the snowstorm for a Bengals Superbowl..... Pay up... Just an FYI, I blame those that made a sacrifice earlier for tonights runs should they continue this trend..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 12 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: cyclone going to reel in another big dog. And Hawkeye is starting to get interested. Nah. I'm interested because it's a big storm within the subforum, but it has little chance to drop much snow up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said: Yikes. I think we can see why so much volatility in the model solutions today, and prob more on the way. Gonna be a long 48 hrs lol. I’m telling ya…. Just wait until 24 hours out. Saves you the stress 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said: I know we’re all talking snow amounts but I think the Ice signal for one of the bigger ice storms in a while may happen. That one will be tricky because it will come down to miles. Where does the cold front stall and how quick does the cold air bleed in You think that's a risk here? Anything's possible but even this amped NAM run extrapolated I think would keep us all snow. Regardless if it's a northern camp or southern camp model, they all agree there won't be much phasing with the northern stream. It will eventually shear off to the east and press the arctic front southwards. It's just the northern models amplify the southern stream wave more robustly initially which allows things to go further north with the storm before that shearing process begins. There are a few EURO and GFS ensemble members which are warmer so you never know. But right now my money's on snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 0z RGEM overrunning even orientation going to change a bit again. North some areas, south other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, RyanDe680 said: I’m telling ya…. Just wait until 24 hours out. Saves you the stress You'd think id learn after 17 yrs of this, and after ghd1 but a weenie gonna weenie. I dont get as stressed as I used to. Just been waiting forever for our own ghd 2 footer in metro Detroit. Maybe this is it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: I’m telling ya…. Just wait until 24 hours out. Saves you the stress Not enough time to make a 1000 mile trip if the weenie runs end up being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Chicago Storm said: No 395 page thread like New England? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: You think that's a risk here? Anything's possible but even this amped NAM run extrapolated I think would keep us all snow. Regardless if it's a northern camp or southern camp model, they all agree there won't be much phasing with the northern stream. It will eventually shear off to the east and press the arctic front southwards. It's just the northern models amplify the southern stream wave more robustly initially which allows things to go further north with the storm before that shearing process begins. There are a few EURO and GFS ensemble members which are warmer so you never know. But right now my money's on snow. Oh sorry not for GTA risk is a bit bigger for Niagara Falls Ontario/New York I meant back across Texas-WNY. Whoever is just south of the snow and that exact placement I don’t think we know until now casting. I can see a scenario where it’s snow in Buffalo but 15 miles SE it’s an Ice Storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LansingWeather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 hours ago, WeatherMonger said: Back then was on Accuwx forums and Chicago Storm and RobB would team up for the 0Z runs, CS giving the details and differences while Rob would post surface, 500 vort and 750mb images from the old NCEP site. Brings back fond memories, I wonder where Jdreken went, don't know why he's not here, AFAIK. I am seriously considering flying up back to MI just for this storm. Need to make a decision fast lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Initial Watch boxes issued with overnight AFD packages. Northward expansion in the cards?? Edit to add: This is the first Watch I've been under since I can't remember when. My former office (GRR) didn't issue one for last Feb's storm. Looking back at my records, nothing worthy of more than a WWA from them, until I reach the Feb 2018 over-running event. That would be the best candidate for a Watch issuance. If not then, Dec of 2016 I do remember we got a Watch for that storm. So, 4 years at least, maybe more, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Initial Watch boxes issued with overnight AFD packages. Northward expansion in the cards?? Edit to add: This is the first Watch I've been under since I can't remember when. My former office (GRR) didn't issue one for last Feb's storm. Looking back at my records, nothing worthy of more than a WWA from them, until I reach the Feb 2018 over-running event. That would be the best candidate for a Watch issuance. If not then, Dec of 2016 I do remember we got a Watch for that storm. So, 4 years at least, maybe more, lol. These are pretty bullish watches too. DTX's early call is 12-15" in Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 7:17 AM, Powerball said: These are pretty bullish watches too. DTX's early call is 12-15" in Detroit. Somehow, I knew that was too good to be true. Didn't even make half the lower-end here. And that was with a decent contribution from wave 2, lol. Worst blown forecast (snowfall wise) in a long long time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 13 hours ago, RogueWaves said: Somehow, I knew that was too good to be true. Didn't even make half the lower-end here. And that was with a decent contribution from wave 2, lol. Worst blown forecast (snowfall wise) in a long long time. Probably since GHD 1, LMAO!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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