Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 GRR “Little to no snow expected”. Interesting orientation of the heaviest snow axis… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 0z suite play-by-play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMatt21 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Good lord some TV Mets are dumb According to Chief Met Tom Coomes (ABC57 in South Bend), this is just for Wednesday. He didn't feel comfortable adding in Thursday's totals yet. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Reminiscing a bit about the GHD 1 event, trying to think back about trends and such as the imminent storm loomed. Back then was on Accuwx forums and Chicago Storm and RobB would team up for the 0Z runs, CS giving the details and differences while Rob would post surface, 500 vort and 750mb images from the old NCEP site. Forums would crash if it had a transfer to MA/NE region or impactful downstream otherwise as they overloaded the servers. Wish that forum could have been archived before Jesse yanked the plug. Anyhow, the north trends with this one, thus far anyway, don't seem to be as impactful IMBY yet. Remember one of the runs 3 days or so out back then Chicago Storm said Hour 51 more amped "central IL crushed". I thought it was a certainty here, then the north shift started and while I didn't do bad in the end, Chicago was the one that got crushed. From that point on, outside of 36-48 hours I count on nothing. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasestormz39 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Here we go with 0z runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 46 minutes ago, Lightning said: Truth I must echo it. If you have to go by the TV news absolutely Dave rexroth is the way to go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I will say one of our better forecasters WDM (Bill Marino) wrote an excellent forecast discussion this afternoon regarding the upcoming system(s). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 3 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: Reminiscing a bit about the GHD 1 event, trying to think back about trends and such as the imminent storm loomed. Back then was on Accuwx forums and Chicago Storm and RobB would team up for the 0Z runs, CS giving the details and differences while Rob would post surface, 500 vort and 750mb images from the old NCEP site. Forums would crash if it had a transfer to MA/NE region or impactful downstream otherwise as they overloaded the servers. Wish that forum could have been archived before Jesse yanked the plug. Anyhow, the north trends with this one, thus far anyway, don't seem to be as impactful IMBY yet. Remember one of the runs 3 days or so out back then Chicago Storm said Hour 51 more amped "central IL crushed". I thought it was a certainty here, then the north shift started and while I didn't do bad in the end, Chicago was the one that got crushed. From that point on, outside of 36-48 hours I count on nothing. ancient eons ago. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 btw the COD website has a nice dProg/d feature so you can compare run-to-run model variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Through 48hr, looks like little more ridging and little more vorticity advection. Would guess bump north incoming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 8 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said: According to Chief Met Tom Coomes (ABC57 in South Bend), this is just for Wednesday. He didn't feel comfortable adding in Thursday's totals yet. Unless something changes drastically Wednesday alone should put down 6+ locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 North is a 4 letter word. Sigh. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Fairly noticeable height rises this run across the board. Should allow the overrunning event to bump north in some areas and the main system to end up north as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Looks like the NAM is going to continue the baby step north trend 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: ancient eons ago. Back then with winter storms about 7:15pm locally everyone started gathering around the proverbial campfire awaiting the NAM to start and hoped they could stay up throughout the 11:45 start of the Euro. DGEX and Clown Maps were posted in the periods between. The EE Rule was in full effect. Good times 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The wave coming ashore BC/Pac NW continues to trend coming ashore further SW which seems to be really helping this play out favorably 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Snow amounts are 3 inches higher at 9z Wednesday on 0z NAM than they were on the 18z NAM at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Another 24 hours of baby stepping and the entirety of northern IL is in business. Where have we seen this before.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The NAM has the firehose going full blast for N IL 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Firehouse of snow lined up from maine all the way back to new Mexico hr75 on nam. Incredible developments the past 12 hrs, most noticable the orientation of the band in a nw/se trajectory. N IL and central Michigan reeling it in. Mixing issues almost all the way up to dtw. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 End of the run. Still pounding snow back into western MO. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 what a monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Extrapolating, the NAM is probably a 20” event for Chi metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The katy bar the door run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The 0z NAM actually still leaves a lot of potential on the table as well, with that appearance of that ejecting trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigHoss Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Indy screw hole gonna live on. Unreal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 5 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Firehouse of snow lined up from maine all the way back to new Mexico hr75 on nam. Incredible developments the past 12 hrs, most noticable the orientation of the band in a nw/se trajectory. N IL and central Michigan reeling it in. Mixing issues almost all the way up to dtw. Verbatim, DTW's still all snow at the end of the run, but yeah that sleet line is close for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: Verbatim, DTW's still all snow at the end of the run, but yeah that sleet line is close for sure. Gotta smell the rain to get the big snows i suppose. It was looking like dtw was safe from even a north shift but who knows now lol. I was hoping the models would get their act together by the morning so I can book my flight home for this if needed. My family and friends cant believe i would leave 80s n sun for snow lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, Powerball said: Verbatim, DTW's still all snow at the end of the run, but yeah that sleet line is close for sure. It's the 84 hour nam too lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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