Floydbuster Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 24 minutes ago, Air Traffic Control said: Having these snow models trend north of my town makes me sad... and exasperated. I am not looking forward to my dream snow turn into nightmare ice. I will have an aneurysm for sure if KSTL gets far more snow than KBLV, jajaja. ;=; Yeah. I want that heavy snow shot over Cleveland and Akron! What’s this over the lake bull crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Bengals headed to the Super Bowl and NW Ohio looking at 10-16” per the Euro right now? End is near for sure 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Ok all you OH peeps, stick to that promise you made earlier today. You know. The one you said you would trade the snowstorm for a Bengals Superbowl..... Pay up... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Biggest snow I've ever seen is 18in. Looks like a chance to top that. I'm excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Guess i'll go get groceries Monday before word of this gets out to the public and the mad rush begins. Great trends and consistencies now this close to the event which may indeed be historic in parts of the Midwest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 No ice No ice No ice!!!! No heavy sleet, freezing rain, snow mix!!! Someplace else can have ALL the snow as long as we don't get a damn glacier deposited in Central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 STEER CLEAR OF VERBATIM MODEL SNOWFALL OUTPUTS BEING SHARED ON SOCIAL MEDIA. CASTRO 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 FWIW the 15z SREF initial snow axis was close to right through Chi metro so north of other guidance 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18z Euro with a little bump north with overrunning snows through 72hrs and little snowier in heart of axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, jlauderdal said: STEER CLEAR OF VERBATIM MODEL SNOWFALL OUTPUTS BEING SHARED ON SOCIAL MEDIA. CASTRO Glad he didn't include message boards. 3 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Not sure if this was already posted... Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 250 PM EST Sun Jan 30 2022 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-311000- Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery- Boone-Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke- Putnam-Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan- Johnson-Shelby-Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew- Decatur-Knox-Daviess-Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings- Including the cities of Delphi, Flora, Williamsport, West Lebanon, Lafayette, West Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo, Attica, Covington, Veedersburg, Crawfordsville, Lebanon, Zionsville, Tipton, Fishers, Carmel, Noblesville, Anderson, Muncie, Winchester, Union City, Farmland, Parker City, Clinton, Fairview Park, Rockville, Montezuma, Rosedale, Greencastle, Plainfield, Brownsburg, Danville, Indianapolis, Greenfield, New Castle, Terre Haute, Brazil, Spencer, Gosport, Martinsville, Mooresville, Greenwood, Franklin, Shelbyville, Rushville, Sullivan, Carlisle, Shelburn, Farmersburg, Linton, Bloomfield, Jasonville, Worthington, Bloomington, Nashville, Columbus, Greensburg, Vincennes, Washington, Loogootee, Shoals, Bedford, Mitchell, Seymour, and North Vernon 250 PM EST Sun Jan 30 2022 ...WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAY IMPACT TRAVEL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... There is a chance of wintry precipitation beginning Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday across central Indiana. Timing, and details on dominant precipitation type and amounts are still not clear. However, forecast confidence is expected to increase over the next couple of days. Early indications are that wintry precipitation could cause significant travel impacts across portions of the area. Snow, sleet, and freezing rain are all possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Glad he didn't include message boards. We can’t be ignored! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 18z Euro thru 12z Thur... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, OHweather said: If we’re being honest here it’s possible the 18z GGEM and ICON aren’t the most confidence-inspiring duo. You have to throw in the 12z korean 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Unreal what these models are putting out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z Euro thru 12z Thur... Not quite there, but taking the long way there… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Just now, michsnowfreak said: You have to throw in the 12z korean Why not also include the Japanese and NOGAPS models for good measure... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 minute ago, Sciascia said: Not quite there, but taking the long way there… Baby steps doo doo, doo doo doo doo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z Euro thru 12z Thur... tick north of the 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 hour ago, OHweather said: Not sure if there was collaboration on that or not, but these insane numbers rarely pan out as modeled, plus track will change, so here we are trying to be aggressive enough to get people to stay tuned to the forecast but vague enough to not put amounts in anyone’s heads yet. Once models show all time record snow storms and a ton of ice it’s hard to stop that hype train from getting into the public sphere but we can try to at least steer the message…try the key word. Isn't it SOP to issue Winter Storm Watches at least 48hrs before the onset of an event? You guys (I'm talking about all the WFOs in line for some impact from this system) will definitely need to shit or get off the pot by tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 6 minutes ago, Powerball said: Why not also include the Japanese and NOGAPS models for good measure... This storm is worthy of bringing the eta and ngm out of retirement 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 7 minutes ago, Powerball said: Isn't it SOP to issue Winter Storm Watches at least 48hrs before the onset of an event? You guys (I'm talking about all the WFOs in line for some impact from this system) will definitely need to shit or get off the pot by tomorrow. I was surprised ILX doesn't even have a HWO up. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I'm off the next 2 days, so I won't be on day shift AFDs and headline issuance, but I'll have more time to contribute to the analysis on here. Thanks to those who posted some nice words on my discusssion/dissertation today. Glad to be able to help everyone learn. Anyway, have to echo [mention=525]OHweather[/mention], and I already mention this in the AFD: if the southern stream wave comes in as strong as now modeled by the GFS, ECMWF, and a majority of their ensemble members, I fully expect a northward adjustment to the second round, assuming properly timed ejection.This is due to antecedent pronounced eastern ridging, tendency for strong PV anomalies (potential vorticity anomaly is another name for the short waves we track) to track north and west of earlier forecasts via further pumping downstream ridging, and addition for this setup of +NAO. We've referenced past great events that tracked north of earlier guidance, such as GHD I & II, January 4-5, 2014. Only have to go back to last Feb 14-16 for another example of strong southern wave coming much farther north than had been modeled just a few days prior. That was despite the NAO still being negative. The current temporary block east of Greenland caused by the departing east coast bomb is forecast to dissipate, so the Hudson Bay PV lobe is now forecast to escape northeast a bit quicker. At this time based off the GEFS/EPS mean as shown by op runs, northern stream trough left behind is less likely to outpace the southern wave, with some interaction between the two. This is as opposed to the main wave getting buried, with only sheared out positive tilt southern stream energy shunting everything south. While it is great to see the much stronger EPS support (should see another bump on 18z EPS after further improved op run), setup for the 2nd part is still conditional to the strength of the southern stream wave and proper trough ejection and favorable timing of ejection. Feeling increasingly confident in a major event including a good chunk of the LOT CWA but we still have a ways to go and lots of fun/stressful model watching. 17 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 A few additional points:- Don't want to sleep on round one, the f-gen enhanced overrunning. We have plenty of experience with strong fgen bands producing low to mid end warning amounts on their own (for recent LOT CWA history, think 11/22/15, 2/8-2/9/2018, initial late Nov 2018 snows just to name a few).This current setup has a lot going for it, with high PWATs, sharp low and mid level baroclinic zone, and steep mid-upper lapse rates including in the DGZ. Barring major changes, expecting 1-2"/hour type stuff wherever the heaviest banding sets up. - For these long duration extreme events, the ingredients in play for past events, overrunning followed by strong southern wave ejection, is certainly the case here. That's why we've seen GHD I & II on the analog lists. - I don't know if there is anything to this, but for major Midwest events, there was often a big east coast system within a week in advance of the Midwest system. Prior to GHD I and II, there were major noreasters/blizzards less than a week out in the last week of January. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 2 hours ago, andyhb said: Thought the same thing looking at that. If we get that shortwave to amplify just a bit more and eject more intact, not only does the potential for a blizzard go up, but I could see jackpots approaching 2 feet from that wave alone given how moisture logged this thing is. Effectively, this thing is basically two storms in one. Moisture laden for sure, with both a Pac and Gulf connection. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 14 hours ago, Harry said: If it doesn't happen in Grand Rapids proper or in the boonies further north ( where basically nobody lives ) it didn't happen. Only a few there worth reading who actually takes the time to break things down and they are rarely on when it comes to winter events. Historic has found everyway possible to miss this area ( Dec 04, Mar 08. VD 07, GHD 1, etc etc ) so yeah expectations have been low on the crazier amounts the GFS has showed. That blew it's load here in 67 and 78. Wow, guess I didn't add all those near misses up as potentials for Calhoun/SMI. After all, the region's been waiting 44 years for a widespread CAT-5 hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 31 minutes ago, Powerball said: Isn't it SOP to issue Winter Storm Watches at least 48hrs before the onset of an event? You guys (I'm talking about all the WFOs in line for some impact from this system) will definitely need to shit or get off the pot by tomorrow. Lol. 24-48 hours out is SOP. No reason they won’t be issued in higher confidence areas at the earlier end of that. If BUF was farther west they would’ve pushed for a watch today and others may have jumped in but no one pushed hard for it surrounding us today. It’s Sunday anyways, they can be hoisted early Monday. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: A few additional points: - Don't want to sleep on round one, the f-gen enhanced overrunning. We have plenty of experience with strong fgen bands producing low to mid end warning amounts on their own (for recent LOT CWA history, think 11/22/15, 2/8-2/9/2018, initial late Nov 2018 snows just to name a few). This current setup has a lot going for it, with high PWATs, sharp low and mid level baroclinic zone, and steep mid-upper lapse rates including in the DGZ. Barring major changes, expecting 1-2"/hour type stuff wherever the heaviest banding sets up. - For these long duration extreme events, the ingredients in play for past events, overrunning followed by strong southern wave ejection, is certainly the case here. That's why we've seen GHD I & II on the analog lists. - I don't know if there is anything to this, but for major Midwest events, there was often a big east coast system within a week in advance of the Midwest system. Prior to GHD I and II, there were major noreasters/blizzards less than a week out in the last week of January. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk You can include Jan of '78 monster in that group. Boston was slammed similar to this year, and I believe it was just 4 or 5 days prior to the MOAB here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Assuming no funny business with how the main system ejects, you really couldn't draw up a much better setup for a record/near record breaking storm wherever the heaviest corridor sets up. Long duration with multiple rounds of good rates and improving ratios with time. Also, while it will be windier with time, likely not looking at extreme gusts so not as much concern about dendrite fracturing, etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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