Harry Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 41 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Kind of a garbage look aloft on the 18z GFS, but goes to show that you don't always need a sexy appearance for big snows. A open gom can usually get the job done in situations like this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 5 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Gonna need to lock in that 18z GFS snowmap......could you imagine how much fun that would be? No kidding !!! GFS Porn!!!! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Kind of a garbage look aloft on the 18z GFS, but goes to show that you don't always need a sexy appearance for big snows.It’s far from garbage.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Some recent model op runs have been good for Iowa, but the model ensembles are suggesting this overrunning/cutter pattern has a better chance of being suppressed to the south of Iowa. I'm hopeful, but not optimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It’s far from garbage. . I mean, it's a pos/neutral trough with no closed mid level low. That's what I meant. And as a result, the surface maps don't even look that impressive with a rather pedestrian sfc low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 20 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: No kidding !!! GFS Porn!!!! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 With a super busy shift at LOT today dealing with LES threat, tried to do most I could to add some general details in extended. Asked neighboring offices if they'd consider tossing in some sleet and freezing rain chances and they opted against it, so I blanketed CWA with sleet/freezing rain chance late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. In reality obviously not the whole area would be in threat zone for icing on top of sig snow threat, but the surface and lower level pattern strongly supportive of a zone of sleet and freezing rain with cold drain from 1045 mb high to north. Hopefully most of the CWA ends up mostly snow and we get a big event (or an appetizer round) followed by the main course. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 hours ago, London snowsquall said: Agreed. Seems there is occasional casual use of the terms blizzard or whiteout by some, for situations that do not come close to qualifying. A foot and a half of snow, wind gusts to 80mph and zero visibility for nine straight hours meant a blizzard of unique ferocity. Never seen anything since that has even come close. Eight people died here, including some who got lost in the storm and froze to death, and a family of 5 who died in their stranded vehicle waiting for rescue from the highway. I wonder how many on this board experienced this storm. I was in 1st grade living in SE Ohio. I remember the relentless wind. We started on the warm side so not as much snow as many but it was still wild. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 55 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: With a super busy shift at LOT today dealing with LES threat, tried to do most I could to add some general details in extended. Asked neighboring offices if they'd consider tossing in some sleet and freezing rain chances and they opted against it, so I blanketed CWA with sleet/freezing rain chance late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. In reality obviously not the whole area would be in threat zone for icing on top of sig snow threat, but the surface and lower level pattern strongly supportive of a zone of sleet and freezing rain with cold drain from 1045 mb high to north. Hopefully most of the CWA ends up mostly snow and we get a big event (or an appetizer round) followed by the main course. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Thanks for the insight. I will be flying into Chicago Wed afternoon so will be watching this system and Mets like you closely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 7 hours ago, hlcater said: I have no idea why that matters. Column temp/omega/saturation is what you want to pay attention to. Matters little where that is coming from. The airmass on the cold side of the baroclinic zone absolutely favors higher end ratios and as such kuchera is probably the better reflection here. It's just my own personal anecdotal experience that systems with a lot of front-loaded overrunning snow don't produce super high ratios regardless of how cold the column is. I don't know why, but the flakes are just different. Usually a lot of less intricate plates that don't aggregate as well as pure dendrites. I just prefer to know the actual amount of water being put out. 15:1 is usually the best it gets. I have never seen higher ratios except from clippers and lake effect. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Iowa is gonna have to have a lot go right for this system in order to get the best snows up this way. As of now, lead wave is too strong and baroclinic zone is forced too far south. Our best shot of snow would appear to come from initial overrunning precip while the big lobe of energy tracks somewhere to the SE of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 on the back burner it appears until The Great Chicago Lake Effect Event 2022 clears out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 5 hours ago, hlcater said: Iowa is gonna have to have a lot go right for this system in order to get the best snows up this way. As of now, lead wave is too strong and baroclinic zone is forced too far south. Our best shot of snow would appear to come from initial overrunning precip while the big lobe of energy tracks somewhere to the SE of here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Good ensemble support for an event. My worry is that over time this trends into a mess/glorified front, but still way too early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I need to schedule a work trip to Toledo ASAP 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The GFS/GEFS came back nw at 06z and is solid for Iowa, but the 00z Euro went way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The GFS/GEFS came back nw at 06z and is solid for Iowa, but the 00z Euro went way south. Could be Chambana and Indys time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 hours ago, Baum said: on the back burner it appears until The Great Chicago Lake Effect Event 2022 clears out. agree this thread will become more active after that lake event and hopefully we can continue to see those numbers the GFS had yesterady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Definitely an intriguing system just can't get too excited far out with the models. The support is nice though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 gfs came in hot, great look with wide open gulf with moisture pulled over sharp baroclinic zone 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 17 hours ago, Harry said: A open gom can usually get the job done in situations like this. Who is this stranger that is posting? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 powerball and harry, thread has incredible energy right now 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 GFS definitely brightened my morning after the run last night and the jealousy of missing out on lake effect and then a blizzard! Far too early to get excited, but overall great support for a storm on the ensembles with details ironed out of the next coming days. Fingers crossed we get a legit snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: powerball and harry, thread has incredible energy right now if only we could get a Bowme post. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 4 minutes ago, Powerball said: Who is this stranger that is posting? After morning gray and light snow...the SUN is out powerball. You are missing sun in Detroit. A sparkly winter day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 We're going to be having power grid issues and another deep/prolonged freeze again here, so yeah, you guys will definitely get buried like you did last February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 hours ago, Cary67 said: Could be Chambana and Indys time. 12z GFS says no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Watching Alex and crew reel in another one 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Ensemble looks quite good on the GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Several weeks ago, @Stevo6899 did predict that Chicago might end with 10" more for for the season than Detroit, when all said & done. This storm, as currently depicted on the models, would definitely be the one to test that prediction. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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