Stebo Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Jonger said: Damn, this one might have legs. We have model consensus. So did the east coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Stebo said: So did the east coast. Just hit Michigan.....anywhere and I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaryWarren Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 sun angle will be too high by then, anything that will accumulate will melt off in under a week. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Euro was close to a bomb but couldnt quite get there. Sad! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Contrary to popular belief, we gon guide this bitch in like a 787 on final approach Edit: except when Alek takes his headset off and peers out the window of the CT we'll realize it's actually the Death Star, not a terrestrial aircraft 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 GHD 3.0 incoming. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 That Euro was the relatively rare progression of sig snow to ice to rain around here. Usually don't see the front end wintry precip last as long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 57 minutes ago, hlcater said: Euro was close to a bomb but couldnt quite get there. Sad! This isn't a clipper so the Kuchera Ratio is probably overblowing the totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 14 hours ago, Stebo said: I like the big risk the big reward though, its just like here. Everyone remembers blizzard of 99 or the 2 ghd storms, no one is going to remember the 2 clippers we had this weekend in a month. To each their own. For me, It's not about remembering as much as it is enjoying Winter. It's the beavis in me. Were the clippers memorable? Of course not. But it's a Winter wonderland outside. Just like when they have shit Winters on the East Coast with nothing but bare ground, if I lived there, I don't think it would be any consolation to just remember past storms. In terms of remembering, nothing like the winter of 13-14. I can't imagine any single storm could surpass that. I remember the blizzard of 99 well and of course ghdII is my favorite, but immediate thoughts always go to 13-14. Every year this time when they bring up the blizzard of 78, I always have to really wonder. It's become such lore and there's always pomp and circumstances surrounding it, that I wonder what it would have ACTUALLY been like to experience it in Detroit. It's well documented that snowfall totals were far less on the East Side of the state. I'm sure it was a good storm with winds, blowing snow, falling temperatures, etc, but widespread reports of only 8 to 10" in this area certainly lump it in with many other storms. And had that same thing happened today, I have a feeling the storm would be remembered for being a massive close miss. I cannot fathom a weenie Fondly recalling a storm that dumped 9" of snow here and 3' a few counties West. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 14 hours ago, Jonger said: Damn, this one might have legs. We have model consensus. There is consensus of a storm. That's about the only consensus you will have for at least 5 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said: .... And had that same thing happened today, I have a feeling the storm would be remembered for being a massive close miss. I cannot fathom a weenie Fondly recalling a storm that dumped 9" of snow here and 3' a few counties West. The blizzard was a different animal, one like many weenies here have never experienced, and it has little to do with snow totals. 6" of snow with an over performing clipper is one thing, 6" of snow coming in with a flash freeze 30 degree drop in temps and 60-70 mph gusts that lasted an entire day, is another universe. When you get a blizzard like that, snow amounts don't make a huge difference, it all ends up in huge drifts anyway. Also, widespread power outtages, structural damage from the wind, and impossible travel for days. Pressure reached something like 28.22 which is like a strong hurricane. To your point, I'm sure we would have had better warning and time to prepare vs. 44 years ago. It would be a fun one to track with today's model availability. I can only imagine what some of the models would have been spitting out. The nam probably would have exploded. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 30 minutes ago, buckeye said: The blizzard was a different animal, one like many weenies here have never experienced, and it has little to do with snow totals. 6" of snow with an over performing clipper is one thing, 6" of snow coming in with a flash freeze 30 degree drop in temps and 60-70 mph gusts that lasted an entire day, is another universe. When you get a blizzard like that, snow amounts don't make a huge difference, it all ends up in huge drifts anyway. Also, widespread power outtages, structural damage from the wind, and impossible travel for days. Pressure reached something like 28.22 which is like a strong hurricane. To your point, I'm sure we would have had better warning and time to prepare vs. 44 years ago. It would be a fun one to track with today's model availability. I can only imagine what some of the models would have been spitting out. The nam probably would have exploded. This actually made me Laugh out loud! Thank you! I needed that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 hours ago, frostfern said: This isn't a clipper so the Kuchera Ratio is probably overblowing the totals. I have no idea why that matters. Column temp/omega/saturation is what you want to pay attention to. Matters little where that is coming from. The airmass on the cold side of the baroclinic zone absolutely favors higher end ratios and as such kuchera is probably the better reflection here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z guidance so far staying in the general range as yesterday, cold side of the baroclinic zone def looking good wherever that ends up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 As good as the op GFS looks, there are a lot of ensemble members that look very different. Many have no snow at all in Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Good news, we still have a storm on the 12z Euro. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 So euro started to look like a decent overrunning and then it cranks a low in AR and sends it to Lansing. Very plausible considering we've managed to get some cranked storms this winter and the indices would seem to favor a more nw, (of CMH), solution. Hoping for a faster northern stream and waves vs. an amped storm so we end up with more of a prolonged widespread overrunning event. Of course at 144 hours out it might as well be the 854 hr brazilian the way this winter modelling has been going. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 A solid N. Michigan hit would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 42 minutes ago, buckeye said: it might as well be the 854 hr brazilian the way this winter modelling has been going. The key phrase all must remember in the coming days lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Gfs coming in hawt 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Gfs coming in hawt That's a nice look. Snows for a long time with only a brief break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Still snowing at the lakefront 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That's a nice look. Snows for a long time with only a brief break. Absolutely buried locally. Too bad it's several days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Should note we are 5 days out from the lead wave/overrunning portion.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Still snowing at the lakefront 18z GFS has NE wind off of lake for 36 hours with lake enhancement then pure lake effect with delta T's falling from about 6 to almost 20 towards the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 7 hours ago, buckeye said: The blizzard was a different animal, one like many weenies here have never experienced, and it has little to do with snow totals. 6" of snow with an over performing clipper is one thing, 6" of snow coming in with a flash freeze 30 degree drop in temps and 60-70 mph gusts that lasted an entire day, is another universe. When you get a blizzard like that, snow amounts don't make a huge difference, it all ends up in huge drifts anyway. Also, widespread power outtages, structural damage from the wind, and impossible travel for days. Pressure reached something like 28.22 which is like a strong hurricane. To your point, I'm sure we would have had better warning and time to prepare vs. 44 years ago. It would be a fun one to track with today's model availability. I can only imagine what some of the models would have been spitting out. The nam probably would have exploded. Agreed. Seems there is occasional casual use of the terms blizzard or whiteout by some, for situations that do not come close to qualifying. A foot and a half of snow, wind gusts to 80mph and zero visibility for nine straight hours meant a blizzard of unique ferocity. Never seen anything since that has even come close. Eight people died here, including some who got lost in the storm and froze to death, and a family of 5 who died in their stranded vehicle waiting for rescue from the highway. I wonder how many on this board experienced this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: 18z GFS has NE wind off of lake for 36 hours with lake enhancement then pure lake effect with delta T's falling from about 6 to almost 20 towards the end Would be crazy in Chi metro... all that powder with gusty winds enhanced by the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Kind of a garbage look aloft on the 18z GFS, but goes to show that you don't always need a sexy appearance for big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Gonna need to lock in that 18z GFS snowmap......could you imagine how much fun that would be? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Look at this more closely on Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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